Guy Berger
@econberger.bsky.social
Workforce Economist in Residence at Guild; Senior Fellow at the Burning Glass Institute. I tweet a lot about labor markets, macro, and (sorry) music! Tweets represent my own views.
Pinned
in case you missed it, my recap of the BLS's dispatch from ancient labor market history (September's jobs report)
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
Another good read on measuring poverty properly.
I appreciate folks like @horp.bsky.social who take the time and effort to do this kind of thing:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/26/t...
I appreciate folks like @horp.bsky.social who take the time and effort to do this kind of thing:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/26/t...
The Poverty Line is Not $140,000
A recent essay by Michael W. Green makes a very bold claim that the poverty line should not be where it is currently set — about $31,200 for a family of four — but should be much higher…
economistwritingeveryday.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Another good read on measuring poverty properly.
I appreciate folks like @horp.bsky.social who take the time and effort to do this kind of thing:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/26/t...
I appreciate folks like @horp.bsky.social who take the time and effort to do this kind of thing:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/26/t...
If you want proof that the poverty line should really be $140K, look no further than this news article describing the luxuries that a single earner household could afford in 1999:
theonion.com/man-with-com...
theonion.com/man-with-com...
Man With Complete Mama's Family Video Library Never Going On eBay Drunk Again
NEWTON, MA—In a solemn pledge to himself and the world, Kevin Wollersheim, the new owner of a complete Mama’s Family video library, announced Monday that he will "never, ever again" shop the online au...
theonion.com
November 27, 2025 at 4:15 AM
If you want proof that the poverty line should really be $140K, look no further than this news article describing the luxuries that a single earner household could afford in 1999:
theonion.com/man-with-com...
theonion.com/man-with-com...
TFW it’s an unseasonably warm day and you get to eat lunch outside
November 26, 2025 at 10:26 PM
TFW it’s an unseasonably warm day and you get to eat lunch outside
My final high frequency labor market indicator recap of November.
Happy Thanksgiving!
macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
Happy Thanksgiving!
macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
High Frequency Labor Market Indicators (11/27)
Still No Change in the Labor Market Trajectory
macromostly.substack.com
November 26, 2025 at 6:44 PM
My final high frequency labor market indicator recap of November.
Happy Thanksgiving!
macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
Happy Thanksgiving!
macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
Generally reasonable argument: "The relationship between household/consumer sentiment and hard data has broken down or changed"
Generally unreasonable argument: "Terrible sentiment means the hard data is incorrect"
Generally unreasonable argument: "Terrible sentiment means the hard data is incorrect"
November 26, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Generally reasonable argument: "The relationship between household/consumer sentiment and hard data has broken down or changed"
Generally unreasonable argument: "Terrible sentiment means the hard data is incorrect"
Generally unreasonable argument: "Terrible sentiment means the hard data is incorrect"
The wonderful folks at Morning Consult continue to estimate an unemployment rate index via their survey, and it shows no clear signs of worsening.
(The improvement we saw in the first 8-9 months of the year has slowed or stopped, though.)
(The improvement we saw in the first 8-9 months of the year has slowed or stopped, though.)
November 26, 2025 at 2:23 PM
The wonderful folks at Morning Consult continue to estimate an unemployment rate index via their survey, and it shows no clear signs of worsening.
(The improvement we saw in the first 8-9 months of the year has slowed or stopped, though.)
(The improvement we saw in the first 8-9 months of the year has slowed or stopped, though.)
Indeed job postings show no worsening in their trajectory through 11/21 - indeed, it seems to be very gradually improving.
The Y/Y decline is back where it was in late 2022, almost 3 years ago.
The Y/Y decline is back where it was in late 2022, almost 3 years ago.
November 26, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Indeed job postings show no worsening in their trajectory through 11/21 - indeed, it seems to be very gradually improving.
The Y/Y decline is back where it was in late 2022, almost 3 years ago.
The Y/Y decline is back where it was in late 2022, almost 3 years ago.
Claims:
1/ Still no sign of layoffs picking up in this timely, high quality data - level nearly identical to 2023 and 2024.
1/ Still no sign of layoffs picking up in this timely, high quality data - level nearly identical to 2023 and 2024.
November 26, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Claims:
1/ Still no sign of layoffs picking up in this timely, high quality data - level nearly identical to 2023 and 2024.
1/ Still no sign of layoffs picking up in this timely, high quality data - level nearly identical to 2023 and 2024.
IMHO it’s ok for middle class and upper middle class people to complain and be grumpy and complain when stuff is expensive.
There’s no need to manufacture moral justifications for it (“we’re really poor”; “people used to be more economically well off in a mythical past”)
There’s no need to manufacture moral justifications for it (“we’re really poor”; “people used to be more economically well off in a mythical past”)
November 24, 2025 at 11:10 PM
IMHO it’s ok for middle class and upper middle class people to complain and be grumpy and complain when stuff is expensive.
There’s no need to manufacture moral justifications for it (“we’re really poor”; “people used to be more economically well off in a mythical past”)
There’s no need to manufacture moral justifications for it (“we’re really poor”; “people used to be more economically well off in a mythical past”)
I don’t think $140K makes sense as a poverty line
November 24, 2025 at 4:15 PM
I don’t think $140K makes sense as a poverty line
The FOMC’s inflation hawks have a man on in the inside at the White House:
November 23, 2025 at 9:51 PM
The FOMC’s inflation hawks have a man on in the inside at the White House:
Wow, Bessent warning the Fed that they’re facing a growing inflation problem!
Will be disappointing news to the President.
Will be disappointing news to the President.
November 23, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Wow, Bessent warning the Fed that they’re facing a growing inflation problem!
Will be disappointing news to the President.
Will be disappointing news to the President.
I’m seeing folks share this chart as evidence of the college grad crisis, but it’s *mostly* reflective of the fact that there are way more college grads than there used to be.
More people with BAs => more unemployed with BAs
More people with BAs => more unemployed with BAs
November 23, 2025 at 4:56 PM
I’m seeing folks share this chart as evidence of the college grad crisis, but it’s *mostly* reflective of the fact that there are way more college grads than there used to be.
More people with BAs => more unemployed with BAs
More people with BAs => more unemployed with BAs
This view never gets old
November 22, 2025 at 11:10 PM
This view never gets old
in case you missed it, my recap of the BLS's dispatch from ancient labor market history (September's jobs report)
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
November 21, 2025 at 7:57 PM
in case you missed it, my recap of the BLS's dispatch from ancient labor market history (September's jobs report)
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
Quick easy way for policymakers to boost monthly employment growth:
Allow in a lot more immigrants and give them work authorization
Allow in a lot more immigrants and give them work authorization
November 21, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Quick easy way for policymakers to boost monthly employment growth:
Allow in a lot more immigrants and give them work authorization
Allow in a lot more immigrants and give them work authorization
The Indeed job postings data shows no acceleration in the pace of job market cooling through mid-November - if anything, there's a very small ongoing deceleration (i.e. cooling more slowly)
[Consistent with the claims data]
[Consistent with the claims data]
November 21, 2025 at 6:45 PM
The Indeed job postings data shows no acceleration in the pace of job market cooling through mid-November - if anything, there's a very small ongoing deceleration (i.e. cooling more slowly)
[Consistent with the claims data]
[Consistent with the claims data]
Reposted by Guy Berger
Several constraints, all binding:
1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire
2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field
3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one
4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers
1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire
2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field
3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one
4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers
November 21, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Several constraints, all binding:
1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire
2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field
3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one
4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers
1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire
2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field
3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one
4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers
1/ The supposed "college grad crisis" is a challenging labor market for young people of all educational levels, driven by cyclically weak hiring.
Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate for HS grads in their late teens was 15.3%, the highest (ex-COVID) since April 2017.
Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate for HS grads in their late teens was 15.3%, the highest (ex-COVID) since April 2017.
November 21, 2025 at 5:58 PM
1/ The supposed "college grad crisis" is a challenging labor market for young people of all educational levels, driven by cyclically weak hiring.
Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate for HS grads in their late teens was 15.3%, the highest (ex-COVID) since April 2017.
Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate for HS grads in their late teens was 15.3%, the highest (ex-COVID) since April 2017.
The grok “malfunction” today was incredible
November 21, 2025 at 4:33 AM
The grok “malfunction” today was incredible
This is really good. Just a beautiful melody youtu.be/qp2eU6LUuNs?...
Leola
YouTube video by Roscoe Mitchell Quartet - Topic
youtu.be
November 21, 2025 at 2:52 AM
This is really good. Just a beautiful melody youtu.be/qp2eU6LUuNs?...
Why did the erroneous belief that data centers consume a lot of water become such a zombie idea?
November 20, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Why did the erroneous belief that data centers consume a lot of water become such a zombie idea?
Lots of discourse about falling manufacturing employment since the beginning of the year ignores the fact that manufacturing *production* is up
November 20, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Lots of discourse about falling manufacturing employment since the beginning of the year ignores the fact that manufacturing *production* is up
