Guy Berger
@econberger.bsky.social
Workforce Economist in Residence at Guild; Senior Fellow at the Burning Glass Institute. I tweet a lot about labor markets, macro, and (sorry) music! Tweets represent my own views.
Pinned
Claims thread:
1/ A few states are still missing (I imputed them), but my estimate is initial claims was ~217K. Lower than last week, lower than 2024 (Hurricane Helene aftermath), higher than 2023.
1/ A few states are still missing (I imputed them), but my estimate is initial claims was ~217K. Lower than last week, lower than 2024 (Hurricane Helene aftermath), higher than 2023.
1/ Folks have been kind enough to share the new Goldman Sachs layoff tracker (I’m not cool enough to be on the distribution list)
My take - it’s interesting! I am curious to see how it performs out of sample.
My take - it’s interesting! I am curious to see how it performs out of sample.
November 11, 2025 at 5:16 PM
1/ Folks have been kind enough to share the new Goldman Sachs layoff tracker (I’m not cool enough to be on the distribution list)
My take - it’s interesting! I am curious to see how it performs out of sample.
My take - it’s interesting! I am curious to see how it performs out of sample.
The CPS reference period was last week (earlier than the typical month, but normal-early for November), and typically they would have started data collection this week.
But assuming the shutdown ends this week, there's precedent for starting data collection late - e.g. 2013.
But assuming the shutdown ends this week, there's precedent for starting data collection late - e.g. 2013.
November 11, 2025 at 1:23 AM
The CPS reference period was last week (earlier than the typical month, but normal-early for November), and typically they would have started data collection this week.
But assuming the shutdown ends this week, there's precedent for starting data collection late - e.g. 2013.
But assuming the shutdown ends this week, there's precedent for starting data collection late - e.g. 2013.
I’m about to become a whole wheat pasta millionaire
November 11, 2025 at 1:10 AM
I’m about to become a whole wheat pasta millionaire
If we’re really wrapping up the shutdown this week & BLS data flow resumes, it will take a while to catch up.
For instance, the Sep jobs report would be released relatively quickly, but it’s old news. We probably wouldn’t get real news about the labor market until early Dec?
For instance, the Sep jobs report would be released relatively quickly, but it’s old news. We probably wouldn’t get real news about the labor market until early Dec?
November 9, 2025 at 11:36 PM
If we’re really wrapping up the shutdown this week & BLS data flow resumes, it will take a while to catch up.
For instance, the Sep jobs report would be released relatively quickly, but it’s old news. We probably wouldn’t get real news about the labor market until early Dec?
For instance, the Sep jobs report would be released relatively quickly, but it’s old news. We probably wouldn’t get real news about the labor market until early Dec?
At this point it’s less well-known than the version Miles Davis recorded, but Eddie Harris’s original recording of “Freedom Jazz Dance” is pretty weird (and great). Not your stereotypical 1960s soul jazz
youtu.be/iDrH5urtCbQ?...
youtu.be/iDrH5urtCbQ?...
Freedom Jazz Dance
YouTube video by Eddie Harris - Topic
youtu.be
November 8, 2025 at 5:52 PM
At this point it’s less well-known than the version Miles Davis recorded, but Eddie Harris’s original recording of “Freedom Jazz Dance” is pretty weird (and great). Not your stereotypical 1960s soul jazz
youtu.be/iDrH5urtCbQ?...
youtu.be/iDrH5urtCbQ?...
For anyone who is interested, my weekly labor market indicator recap.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
November 8, 2025 at 12:06 AM
For anyone who is interested, my weekly labor market indicator recap.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
I think the most valuable Revelio monthly data isn't the employment growth data, but rather their turnover metrics on hiring and attrition.
We're really feeling the absence of JOLTS and CPS-based quasi-JOLTS, so this kind of thing is essential.
We're really feeling the absence of JOLTS and CPS-based quasi-JOLTS, so this kind of thing is essential.
November 7, 2025 at 11:53 PM
I think the most valuable Revelio monthly data isn't the employment growth data, but rather their turnover metrics on hiring and attrition.
We're really feeling the absence of JOLTS and CPS-based quasi-JOLTS, so this kind of thing is essential.
We're really feeling the absence of JOLTS and CPS-based quasi-JOLTS, so this kind of thing is essential.
I took a look at the Revelio employment growth estimates and noticed they have a pattern of downward revisions to recent data.
I am guessing this has to do with idiosyncrasies in the LI data they are using to calculate employment growth.
I am guessing this has to do with idiosyncrasies in the LI data they are using to calculate employment growth.
November 7, 2025 at 11:21 PM
I took a look at the Revelio employment growth estimates and noticed they have a pattern of downward revisions to recent data.
I am guessing this has to do with idiosyncrasies in the LI data they are using to calculate employment growth.
I am guessing this has to do with idiosyncrasies in the LI data they are using to calculate employment growth.
Job cut announcements vs. other layoff indicators in perspective (I updated this chart)
November 7, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Job cut announcements vs. other layoff indicators in perspective (I updated this chart)
5 weeks ago, I wrote about the shutdown's impact on the labor market and how big it would be. A big reason why the impact has been small so far: few irreversible events.
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
November 7, 2025 at 9:30 PM
5 weeks ago, I wrote about the shutdown's impact on the labor market and how big it would be. A big reason why the impact has been small so far: few irreversible events.
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
"These mass layoff announcements have not been representative of what most companies in the United States are doing; they're outliers that get a lot of attention... maybe finally other firms start following their footstep, but so far it has not happened."
www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ups-l...
www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ups-l...
Layoff panic is hiding a surprising reality about the job market
It will take a lot more Amazon-sized layoffs for the job market to actually take a hit.
www.businessinsider.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:57 AM
"These mass layoff announcements have not been representative of what most companies in the United States are doing; they're outliers that get a lot of attention... maybe finally other firms start following their footstep, but so far it has not happened."
www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ups-l...
www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ups-l...
“Lay-offs get a lot of the attention, but weak hiring has been much more important in explaining the cooling that we’ve seen in the labour market.”
Thanks to Stephanie Stacey at @financialtimes.com for chatting w/me about all those scary layoff headlines!
www.ft.com/content/fabb...
Thanks to Stephanie Stacey at @financialtimes.com for chatting w/me about all those scary layoff headlines!
www.ft.com/content/fabb...
Corporate job losses mount amid tightening economy and AI growth
Recent cuts mark end of job security for high-earning knowledge workers whose ranks grew since pandemic
www.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:51 AM
“Lay-offs get a lot of the attention, but weak hiring has been much more important in explaining the cooling that we’ve seen in the labour market.”
Thanks to Stephanie Stacey at @financialtimes.com for chatting w/me about all those scary layoff headlines!
www.ft.com/content/fabb...
Thanks to Stephanie Stacey at @financialtimes.com for chatting w/me about all those scary layoff headlines!
www.ft.com/content/fabb...
Claims update:
1/ In the week ended 11/01, initial claims rose to 228K (if I'm doing my math right). That's a little higher than in both 2024 and 2023.
Because of residual seasonality I expect them to drift lower during the remainder of the year - if not, that would be un-good
1/ In the week ended 11/01, initial claims rose to 228K (if I'm doing my math right). That's a little higher than in both 2024 and 2023.
Because of residual seasonality I expect them to drift lower during the remainder of the year - if not, that would be un-good
November 7, 2025 at 2:38 AM
Claims update:
1/ In the week ended 11/01, initial claims rose to 228K (if I'm doing my math right). That's a little higher than in both 2024 and 2023.
Because of residual seasonality I expect them to drift lower during the remainder of the year - if not, that would be un-good
1/ In the week ended 11/01, initial claims rose to 228K (if I'm doing my math right). That's a little higher than in both 2024 and 2023.
Because of residual seasonality I expect them to drift lower during the remainder of the year - if not, that would be un-good
No access to a computer, still having fun posting
November 6, 2025 at 6:26 PM
No access to a computer, still having fun posting
Since were enduring another round of Challenger discourse, a reminder -
It’s has some directional signal (when it goes up, so do superior layoff indicators) but the magnitudes are wildly off. Look at those y axes!
(No access to computer so chart not updated)
It’s has some directional signal (when it goes up, so do superior layoff indicators) but the magnitudes are wildly off. Look at those y axes!
(No access to computer so chart not updated)
November 6, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Since were enduring another round of Challenger discourse, a reminder -
It’s has some directional signal (when it goes up, so do superior layoff indicators) but the magnitudes are wildly off. Look at those y axes!
(No access to computer so chart not updated)
It’s has some directional signal (when it goes up, so do superior layoff indicators) but the magnitudes are wildly off. Look at those y axes!
(No access to computer so chart not updated)
The overwhelming number of US layoffs come from firms not included in the job cut announcement tally.
We’re not worried about “Fortune 500 company that announced layoffs”, we’re worried about a long tail of companies that might be doing the same w/less fanfare
We’re not worried about “Fortune 500 company that announced layoffs”, we’re worried about a long tail of companies that might be doing the same w/less fanfare
November 6, 2025 at 4:41 PM
The overwhelming number of US layoffs come from firms not included in the job cut announcement tally.
We’re not worried about “Fortune 500 company that announced layoffs”, we’re worried about a long tail of companies that might be doing the same w/less fanfare
We’re not worried about “Fortune 500 company that announced layoffs”, we’re worried about a long tail of companies that might be doing the same w/less fanfare
“Good news. Yes hiring is weak and you can’t find a job, but at least it’s probably not because of AI”
November 5, 2025 at 3:52 PM
“Good news. Yes hiring is weak and you can’t find a job, but at least it’s probably not because of AI”
For anyone who is interested, a post on a mild disagreement I have with the great @deanbaker13.bsky.social .
Based on the data we've seen so far (into late October), my sense is that hiring is falling slowly or even not at all.
macromostly.substack.com/p/why-im-onl...
Based on the data we've seen so far (into late October), my sense is that hiring is falling slowly or even not at all.
macromostly.substack.com/p/why-im-onl...
Why I'm Only a Little Worried About Hiring
A reply to Dean Baker
macromostly.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 2:10 AM
For anyone who is interested, a post on a mild disagreement I have with the great @deanbaker13.bsky.social .
Based on the data we've seen so far (into late October), my sense is that hiring is falling slowly or even not at all.
macromostly.substack.com/p/why-im-onl...
Based on the data we've seen so far (into late October), my sense is that hiring is falling slowly or even not at all.
macromostly.substack.com/p/why-im-onl...
I was today years old when I realized that Minister of Administrative Affairs James Hacker was in the classic Grey Poupon commercial
a man in a suit and tie is sitting in a chair saying tragic
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is sitting in a chair saying tragic
media.tenor.com
November 1, 2025 at 8:03 PM
I was today years old when I realized that Minister of Administrative Affairs James Hacker was in the classic Grey Poupon commercial
Again, this time could be different than at various points in the last few years and (until now unrepresentative) high profile mass layoff announcements could translate into a meaningful increase in aggregate layoffs...
But it hasn't happened through 10/25.
But it hasn't happened through 10/25.
Claims:
1/ We now have new initial claims data (week ended 10/25) from most geos (ex. AZ, MA, DC & VI).
If my math is right, regular initial claims (no federal workers!) were, at 219K, almost exactly at the same level as they were in 2024 and 2023.
1/ We now have new initial claims data (week ended 10/25) from most geos (ex. AZ, MA, DC & VI).
If my math is right, regular initial claims (no federal workers!) were, at 219K, almost exactly at the same level as they were in 2024 and 2023.
October 30, 2025 at 11:00 PM
Again, this time could be different than at various points in the last few years and (until now unrepresentative) high profile mass layoff announcements could translate into a meaningful increase in aggregate layoffs...
But it hasn't happened through 10/25.
But it hasn't happened through 10/25.
Claims:
1/ We now have new initial claims data (week ended 10/25) from most geos (ex. AZ, MA, DC & VI).
If my math is right, regular initial claims (no federal workers!) were, at 219K, almost exactly at the same level as they were in 2024 and 2023.
1/ We now have new initial claims data (week ended 10/25) from most geos (ex. AZ, MA, DC & VI).
If my math is right, regular initial claims (no federal workers!) were, at 219K, almost exactly at the same level as they were in 2024 and 2023.
October 30, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Claims:
1/ We now have new initial claims data (week ended 10/25) from most geos (ex. AZ, MA, DC & VI).
If my math is right, regular initial claims (no federal workers!) were, at 219K, almost exactly at the same level as they were in 2024 and 2023.
1/ We now have new initial claims data (week ended 10/25) from most geos (ex. AZ, MA, DC & VI).
If my math is right, regular initial claims (no federal workers!) were, at 219K, almost exactly at the same level as they were in 2024 and 2023.
I’m seeing a lot of folks sharing this number, but caution is more warranted than usual - a lot of the source data you would typically have in late October are currently missing due to the shutdown.
The current nowcast for Q3 is unusually data-light and assumption-heavy. And we’re in Q4!!!
The current nowcast for Q3 is unusually data-light and assumption-heavy. And we’re in Q4!!!
October 30, 2025 at 8:20 PM
I’m seeing a lot of folks sharing this number, but caution is more warranted than usual - a lot of the source data you would typically have in late October are currently missing due to the shutdown.
The current nowcast for Q3 is unusually data-light and assumption-heavy. And we’re in Q4!!!
The current nowcast for Q3 is unusually data-light and assumption-heavy. And we’re in Q4!!!
Since we are having another round of high profile layoff discourse this week (with ‘blame AI’ to spice things up):
1/ High profile mass layoffs have been the “kid who cried wolf” for the last few years.
Maybe this is changing but we don’t see it, yet, in the data.
1/ High profile mass layoffs have been the “kid who cried wolf” for the last few years.
Maybe this is changing but we don’t see it, yet, in the data.
October 30, 2025 at 3:51 AM
Since we are having another round of high profile layoff discourse this week (with ‘blame AI’ to spice things up):
1/ High profile mass layoffs have been the “kid who cried wolf” for the last few years.
Maybe this is changing but we don’t see it, yet, in the data.
1/ High profile mass layoffs have been the “kid who cried wolf” for the last few years.
Maybe this is changing but we don’t see it, yet, in the data.
If Abraham Lincoln can be a vampire hunter, why can’t Napoleon be a demon hunter
October 30, 2025 at 1:08 AM
If Abraham Lincoln can be a vampire hunter, why can’t Napoleon be a demon hunter