Guy Berger
@econberger.bsky.social
Workforce Economist in Residence at Guild; Senior Fellow at the Burning Glass Institute. I tweet a lot about labor markets, macro, and (sorry) music! Tweets represent my own views.
Fact check: false
November 15, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Fact check: false
7/ Still a mystery why growth in google searches for unemployment insurance is spiking even though initial claims are not...
November 13, 2025 at 10:21 PM
7/ Still a mystery why growth in google searches for unemployment insurance is spiking even though initial claims are not...
6/ Still, the total amount of federal worker continuing claims is very small as a share of total continuing claims...
November 13, 2025 at 10:15 PM
6/ Still, the total amount of federal worker continuing claims is very small as a share of total continuing claims...
5/ Federal initial claims continue to plummet (but are still elevated).
Federal continuing claims continue to rise rapidly.
Soon we'll find out how much is the shutdown (temporary), how much is RIFs (permanent).
Federal continuing claims continue to rise rapidly.
Soon we'll find out how much is the shutdown (temporary), how much is RIFs (permanent).
November 13, 2025 at 10:06 PM
5/ Federal initial claims continue to plummet (but are still elevated).
Federal continuing claims continue to rise rapidly.
Soon we'll find out how much is the shutdown (temporary), how much is RIFs (permanent).
Federal continuing claims continue to rise rapidly.
Soon we'll find out how much is the shutdown (temporary), how much is RIFs (permanent).
4/ IT'S OVER WE'RE SO BACK
November 13, 2025 at 9:49 PM
4/ IT'S OVER WE'RE SO BACK
3/ Nothing troubling in regular continuing claims either (week ended 11/01). Modestly above year-ago levels, consistent with the same very slow ongoing deterioration of the past >2 years.
November 13, 2025 at 9:45 PM
3/ Nothing troubling in regular continuing claims either (week ended 11/01). Modestly above year-ago levels, consistent with the same very slow ongoing deterioration of the past >2 years.
2/ Maybe something bad is around the corner but it hasn't happened yet.
Next week's IC data will be the last to include part of the shutdown period.
Next week's IC data will be the last to include part of the shutdown period.
November 13, 2025 at 9:42 PM
2/ Maybe something bad is around the corner but it hasn't happened yet.
Next week's IC data will be the last to include part of the shutdown period.
Next week's IC data will be the last to include part of the shutdown period.
The final "scrapped together" claims data before the DOL begins publishing weekly reports again...
1/ Regular initial claims were "well-behaved" again in the week ended 11/08, no sign of a layoff surge, just modestly above year-ago levels (and nearly identical to 2 years ago)
1/ Regular initial claims were "well-behaved" again in the week ended 11/08, no sign of a layoff surge, just modestly above year-ago levels (and nearly identical to 2 years ago)
November 13, 2025 at 9:41 PM
The final "scrapped together" claims data before the DOL begins publishing weekly reports again...
1/ Regular initial claims were "well-behaved" again in the week ended 11/08, no sign of a layoff surge, just modestly above year-ago levels (and nearly identical to 2 years ago)
1/ Regular initial claims were "well-behaved" again in the week ended 11/08, no sign of a layoff surge, just modestly above year-ago levels (and nearly identical to 2 years ago)
I did the political tribe quiz, and I thought this chart was an interesting illustrative of which groups are very online and which are not
(or maybe, which groups like to fill out online quizzes and which do not)
(or maybe, which groups like to fill out online quizzes and which do not)
November 13, 2025 at 6:50 PM
I did the political tribe quiz, and I thought this chart was an interesting illustrative of which groups are very online and which are not
(or maybe, which groups like to fill out online quizzes and which do not)
(or maybe, which groups like to fill out online quizzes and which do not)
Hi everyone, I wrote a short recap of what will happen with government labor market data after the shutdown. Hope this is useful!
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
November 12, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Hi everyone, I wrote a short recap of what will happen with government labor market data after the shutdown. Hope this is useful!
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
One of the most valuable labor market data providers during the shutdown has been Morning Consult.
Through early November, maybe *very early* signs of labor market deterioration.
Through early November, maybe *very early* signs of labor market deterioration.
November 12, 2025 at 6:00 PM
One of the most valuable labor market data providers during the shutdown has been Morning Consult.
Through early November, maybe *very early* signs of labor market deterioration.
Through early November, maybe *very early* signs of labor market deterioration.
Crystal Springs Reservoir
November 11, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Crystal Springs Reservoir
1/ Folks have been kind enough to share the new Goldman Sachs layoff tracker (I’m not cool enough to be on the distribution list)
My take - it’s interesting! I am curious to see how it performs out of sample.
My take - it’s interesting! I am curious to see how it performs out of sample.
November 11, 2025 at 5:16 PM
1/ Folks have been kind enough to share the new Goldman Sachs layoff tracker (I’m not cool enough to be on the distribution list)
My take - it’s interesting! I am curious to see how it performs out of sample.
My take - it’s interesting! I am curious to see how it performs out of sample.
The CPS reference period was last week (earlier than the typical month, but normal-early for November), and typically they would have started data collection this week.
But assuming the shutdown ends this week, there's precedent for starting data collection late - e.g. 2013.
But assuming the shutdown ends this week, there's precedent for starting data collection late - e.g. 2013.
November 11, 2025 at 1:23 AM
The CPS reference period was last week (earlier than the typical month, but normal-early for November), and typically they would have started data collection this week.
But assuming the shutdown ends this week, there's precedent for starting data collection late - e.g. 2013.
But assuming the shutdown ends this week, there's precedent for starting data collection late - e.g. 2013.
I’m about to become a whole wheat pasta millionaire
November 11, 2025 at 1:10 AM
I’m about to become a whole wheat pasta millionaire
For anyone who is interested, my weekly labor market indicator recap.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
November 8, 2025 at 12:06 AM
For anyone who is interested, my weekly labor market indicator recap.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
As with the Indeed data, the Revelio turnover data does not show a mid-2024 to mid-2025 stabilization like the CPS and JOLTS data do.
November 7, 2025 at 11:54 PM
As with the Indeed data, the Revelio turnover data does not show a mid-2024 to mid-2025 stabilization like the CPS and JOLTS data do.
I think the most valuable Revelio monthly data isn't the employment growth data, but rather their turnover metrics on hiring and attrition.
We're really feeling the absence of JOLTS and CPS-based quasi-JOLTS, so this kind of thing is essential.
We're really feeling the absence of JOLTS and CPS-based quasi-JOLTS, so this kind of thing is essential.
November 7, 2025 at 11:53 PM
I think the most valuable Revelio monthly data isn't the employment growth data, but rather their turnover metrics on hiring and attrition.
We're really feeling the absence of JOLTS and CPS-based quasi-JOLTS, so this kind of thing is essential.
We're really feeling the absence of JOLTS and CPS-based quasi-JOLTS, so this kind of thing is essential.
I took a look at the Revelio employment growth estimates and noticed they have a pattern of downward revisions to recent data.
I am guessing this has to do with idiosyncrasies in the LI data they are using to calculate employment growth.
I am guessing this has to do with idiosyncrasies in the LI data they are using to calculate employment growth.
November 7, 2025 at 11:21 PM
I took a look at the Revelio employment growth estimates and noticed they have a pattern of downward revisions to recent data.
I am guessing this has to do with idiosyncrasies in the LI data they are using to calculate employment growth.
I am guessing this has to do with idiosyncrasies in the LI data they are using to calculate employment growth.
Job cut announcements vs. other layoff indicators in perspective (I updated this chart)
November 7, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Job cut announcements vs. other layoff indicators in perspective (I updated this chart)
5 weeks ago, I wrote about the shutdown's impact on the labor market and how big it would be. A big reason why the impact has been small so far: few irreversible events.
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
November 7, 2025 at 9:30 PM
5 weeks ago, I wrote about the shutdown's impact on the labor market and how big it would be. A big reason why the impact has been small so far: few irreversible events.
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
6/ The impact of federal worker claims on my UR-due-to-permanent-layoff nowcast is tiny
November 7, 2025 at 2:49 AM
6/ The impact of federal worker claims on my UR-due-to-permanent-layoff nowcast is tiny
5/ Federal worker initial claims have clearly peaked and are now falling (still crazy-elevated).
Federal worker continuing claims still rising rapidly (and will continue to do so a while longer). Small in absolute terms - 1.5% of regular continuing claims.
Federal worker continuing claims still rising rapidly (and will continue to do so a while longer). Small in absolute terms - 1.5% of regular continuing claims.
November 7, 2025 at 2:48 AM
5/ Federal worker initial claims have clearly peaked and are now falling (still crazy-elevated).
Federal worker continuing claims still rising rapidly (and will continue to do so a while longer). Small in absolute terms - 1.5% of regular continuing claims.
Federal worker continuing claims still rising rapidly (and will continue to do so a while longer). Small in absolute terms - 1.5% of regular continuing claims.
4/ No impact of the shutdown on the trajectory, so far:
November 7, 2025 at 2:47 AM
4/ No impact of the shutdown on the trajectory, so far: