Nick Huntington-Klein
@nickchk.com
Econ prof at Seattle University. Book The Effect http://theeffectbook.net out now! Substack https://nickchk.substack.com/ Twitter @nickchk
haven't watched actual broadcast tv in a while and i just saw an ad where a cartoon bear encourages you to take out a loan to pay for your groceries
December 28, 2025 at 7:38 AM
haven't watched actual broadcast tv in a while and i just saw an ad where a cartoon bear encourages you to take out a loan to pay for your groceries
Lol they make them dig their own graves and crawl in coffins to symbolize the stakes of getting voted out in this game that is just mafia/werewolf
December 22, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Lol they make them dig their own graves and crawl in coffins to symbolize the stakes of getting voted out in this game that is just mafia/werewolf
we heard that alan carr was really good on The Celebrity Traitors UK so we've watched a few episodes now and i am enjoying this pretty bad show because it is possibly the campiest thing i have ever seen. no other show can make me laugh on literally every music cue
December 22, 2025 at 9:13 PM
we heard that alan carr was really good on The Celebrity Traitors UK so we've watched a few episodes now and i am enjoying this pretty bad show because it is possibly the campiest thing i have ever seen. no other show can make me laugh on literally every music cue
It's a pretty consistent result for me that when I get an email asking me to review the methods of a paper: the worse the methods are and thus the more effort for me to comment on, the less likely it is they'll take my advice instead of finding an excuse.
December 21, 2025 at 3:44 AM
It's a pretty consistent result for me that when I get an email asking me to review the methods of a paper: the worse the methods are and thus the more effort for me to comment on, the less likely it is they'll take my advice instead of finding an excuse.
Is it collider "bias" though? Seems like the predictive result is the actual interesting part they're selling (ie among a certain range of child performance don't worry too much where you fall within it), and the impact of colliders counts!
December 21, 2025 at 3:40 AM
Is it collider "bias" though? Seems like the predictive result is the actual interesting part they're selling (ie among a certain range of child performance don't worry too much where you fall within it), and the impact of colliders counts!
I am sitting
By the presents
That I'm not allowed to open
I am eating
All the chocolate
That my mom sent in a package
And I'm sick of all the Buble
And before I turn on Muppets
I'm reminded that the Santa
Waits for kids to go to bed
Ho ho ho ho
Ho ho-ho-ho
Ho ha ho ho
Ho ho-ho-ho
By the presents
That I'm not allowed to open
I am eating
All the chocolate
That my mom sent in a package
And I'm sick of all the Buble
And before I turn on Muppets
I'm reminded that the Santa
Waits for kids to go to bed
Ho ho ho ho
Ho ho-ho-ho
Ho ha ho ho
Ho ho-ho-ho
December 21, 2025 at 2:59 AM
I am sitting
By the presents
That I'm not allowed to open
I am eating
All the chocolate
That my mom sent in a package
And I'm sick of all the Buble
And before I turn on Muppets
I'm reminded that the Santa
Waits for kids to go to bed
Ho ho ho ho
Ho ho-ho-ho
Ho ha ho ho
Ho ho-ho-ho
By the presents
That I'm not allowed to open
I am eating
All the chocolate
That my mom sent in a package
And I'm sick of all the Buble
And before I turn on Muppets
I'm reminded that the Santa
Waits for kids to go to bed
Ho ho ho ho
Ho ho-ho-ho
Ho ha ho ho
Ho ho-ho-ho
If you haven't given ignorance a try before, it's fantastic. You don't know what you're missing.
December 19, 2025 at 11:47 PM
If you haven't given ignorance a try before, it's fantastic. You don't know what you're missing.
Alexa's inability to remember what you asked for for more than a few tracks is turning out to be a hidden perk now that my daughter is asking for "Christmas music". Currently listening to the holiday classic Heart-Shaped Box
December 14, 2025 at 11:13 PM
Alexa's inability to remember what you asked for for more than a few tracks is turning out to be a hidden perk now that my daughter is asking for "Christmas music". Currently listening to the holiday classic Heart-Shaped Box
Does one of the answers change if you change the scale of the data? I'd be surprised if floating point errors show up for the data you've shown on screen but that's one possible explanation.
December 11, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Does one of the answers change if you change the scale of the data? I'd be surprised if floating point errors show up for the data you've shown on screen but that's one possible explanation.
Very odd! I don't know but curious or find out
December 11, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Very odd! I don't know but curious or find out
New post today, about how the statistical methods we use are a sort of policy, and what that means (and is hypothesis testing any good?)
open.substack.com/pub/nickchk/...
open.substack.com/pub/nickchk/...
Statistical Inference is Policy
Ask not how we can *do* the best statistics, ask how we can *get* the best statistics.
open.substack.com
December 10, 2025 at 6:25 PM
New post today, about how the statistical methods we use are a sort of policy, and what that means (and is hypothesis testing any good?)
open.substack.com/pub/nickchk/...
open.substack.com/pub/nickchk/...
i think the only annual watch i do is Elf and if it were up to me i would not watch it again. i have already seen Elf.
December 8, 2025 at 11:51 PM
i think the only annual watch i do is Elf and if it were up to me i would not watch it again. i have already seen Elf.
if you're counting childhood viewing i have a few. eliminating Disney maybe leaves me with... a land before time? Maybe Totoro but I'm not sure. That might be it.
December 8, 2025 at 11:37 PM
if you're counting childhood viewing i have a few. eliminating Disney maybe leaves me with... a land before time? Maybe Totoro but I'm not sure. That might be it.
if i think about it a while i can name maybe four movies i've watched *twice* by my own choice. six times??
December 8, 2025 at 11:32 PM
if i think about it a while i can name maybe four movies i've watched *twice* by my own choice. six times??
i always think it's interesting when prompts pop up because people consume media so differently. unless you count movies i've half-watched while my kid watched them i don't think i've ever seen ANY movie *six times* as an adult that seems like so impossibly much
Movie you’ve watched more than six times with a gif. Hard mode: no Stars (Wars nor Trek), LOTR, or Marvel, Disney Animated or Pixar.
December 8, 2025 at 11:32 PM
i always think it's interesting when prompts pop up because people consume media so differently. unless you count movies i've half-watched while my kid watched them i don't think i've ever seen ANY movie *six times* as an adult that seems like so impossibly much
Reposted by Nick Huntington-Klein
I've now updated this with a few updates:
1. I've added the JFE, JF, and RFS
2. I've added QJE and (most of) JPE
3. I've fixed some bugs
4. I added a way to adjust for length of papers over time
5. I've added citation counts (per OpenAlex)
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
1. I've added the JFE, JF, and RFS
2. I've added QJE and (most of) JPE
3. I've fixed some bugs
4. I added a way to adjust for length of papers over time
5. I've added citation counts (per OpenAlex)
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
December 8, 2025 at 8:15 PM
I've now updated this with a few updates:
1. I've added the JFE, JF, and RFS
2. I've added QJE and (most of) JPE
3. I've fixed some bugs
4. I added a way to adjust for length of papers over time
5. I've added citation counts (per OpenAlex)
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
1. I've added the JFE, JF, and RFS
2. I've added QJE and (most of) JPE
3. I've fixed some bugs
4. I added a way to adjust for length of papers over time
5. I've added citation counts (per OpenAlex)
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
I am on parental leave which almost certainly was a contributing factor of me missing this news
December 6, 2025 at 11:54 PM
I am on parental leave which almost certainly was a contributing factor of me missing this news
I forgot that it was nobel season and only saw the econ award today! Bluesky this was supposed to be your job I'm ashamed of you
December 6, 2025 at 11:49 PM
I forgot that it was nobel season and only saw the econ award today! Bluesky this was supposed to be your job I'm ashamed of you
@shokru.bsky.social has a recent paper that notices the same issue and suggests an alternative variance decomposition as well as going way more in-depth on the issue of comparison www.paris-december.eu/sites/defaul...
www.paris-december.eu
December 5, 2025 at 8:49 PM
@shokru.bsky.social has a recent paper that notices the same issue and suggests an alternative variance decomposition as well as going way more in-depth on the issue of comparison www.paris-december.eu/sites/defaul...
probably better to try to think of what meaningful effect size variation is in a given context which is obviously not as satisfyingly objective :-/
December 5, 2025 at 8:38 PM
probably better to try to think of what meaningful effect size variation is in a given context which is obviously not as satisfyingly objective :-/
you could find a meaningful way to interpret this metric but it is not as clean or useful as i originally intended it!
December 5, 2025 at 8:35 PM
you could find a meaningful way to interpret this metric but it is not as clean or useful as i originally intended it!
which doesn't really work as intended in terms of comparing across different contexts or data cleaning choices, since it's sensitive to things like the sample size of the relevant data set or noise in the true model, even for constant levels of researcher variation
December 5, 2025 at 8:35 PM
which doesn't really work as intended in terms of comparing across different contexts or data cleaning choices, since it's sensitive to things like the sample size of the relevant data set or noise in the true model, even for constant levels of researcher variation
as i write the third footnote in the www.nber.org/papers/w33729 revision addressing it, would like to apologize to @albertjmenkveld.com and @flxhlzmstr.bsky.social for suggesting the "standard deviation across researchers divided by mean standard error of each analysis" metric
www.nber.org
December 5, 2025 at 8:35 PM
as i write the third footnote in the www.nber.org/papers/w33729 revision addressing it, would like to apologize to @albertjmenkveld.com and @flxhlzmstr.bsky.social for suggesting the "standard deviation across researchers divided by mean standard error of each analysis" metric
last night my daughter asked whether there were negative letters, like negative numbers. what a good fuckin question
December 4, 2025 at 7:53 PM
last night my daughter asked whether there were negative letters, like negative numbers. what a good fuckin question