NATO sees no major Russian military response if Ukraine receives Tomahawks
NATO officials predict Russia will step up irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and could resort to “punitive strikes” if Ukraine receives long-range Tomahawk missiles, but they do not expect a substantial military response.
Supplying U.S. cruise missiles would expand Ukraine’s capabilities, but Moscow is unlikely to go beyond information operations and limited military pressure, a senior Alliance official said in Brussels, according to LIGA.net .
The NATO representative also addressed whether Russia might employ “new weapons” or ramp up offensive operations at the front as a response to Tomahawks in Ukraine. He said the West has not observed new Russian weapons systems that could be used for that purpose.
“As for a response to Tomahawk, we do not see any new weapons developments that Russia could field. The response will likely include amped-up irresponsible rhetoric (nuclear saber-rattling), a temporary intensification of the conflict or punitive strikes. I don’t think there is any specific, unpredictable response,” the official said.
Russian officials leaned on threats and intimidation. Andrei Kartapolov, a general who chairs the State Duma’s Defense Committee, said the “response will be tough and asymmetric,” adding that Russia’s military supposedly “knows how to shoot down” these missiles.
“There will be problems only for those who supply them to Ukraine and will use them,” the general said without elaborating.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also weighed in, expressing “extreme concern.” He added that the missiles are serious weapons that can be configured in both non-nuclear and nuclear variants.
That rhetoric appears to be part of a predictable information response aimed more at a domestic audience and psychological pressure than at actual military escalation.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on October 6 he had practically decided to provide Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. He emphasized he intends to “ask a few questions” of the Ukrainian side about how the weapons would be used, saying he is not seeking escalation.
On October 13, Trump said he was ready to provide Kyiv with Tomahawks if the war “is not settled.”