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The Analyst

@militaryanalyst.bsky.social

4.6K followers 91 following 7.2K posts

Military analyst, economist, historian, enemy of dictators everywhere. Advisor to governments. ‘Devils Advocate Services’. 🇺🇦🏳️‍🌈🇬🇧 AVAILABLE ON: TheMilitaryAnalyst.com Originated on Telegram: https://t.me/militarystrategyanalysis

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 2d

After World War 2, the Netherlands thrived economically due to natural gas, leading to what economists call 'Dutch Disease.' Conversely, Russia's reliance on resource extraction under Putin resulted in economic decline and impending crisis amid ongoing military conflict from the very same disease.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN DEATH SPIRAL

themilitaryanalyst.com

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 5h

Nepobaby Extraordinaire.

The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 6h

apple.news/AgOO0wEqsQ9i...

As Russian Aggression Turns West, Poland Says It’s Ready — The Wall Street Journal

Warsaw has doubled the size of its military since 2014 and boosted military spending to nearly 5% as Russia grows more assertive

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 6h

Russia can play its games - but be warned if they do push too hard, there will not be a hand ringing exercise and pleas for calm. There will be action. The days of doing nothing are over.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 6h

Not even China can save Putin now. Destruction is easier than construction. Putin’s war will prove it yet again.
Amusingly someone said to me the other day, ‘Putin might be careful what he wishes for, he might get it’. Russia will be unified with Ukraine all right, but as a Protectorate of Kyiv!

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 6h

it would see such long ranged attacks so deep inland. Ukraine has Russia running through hoops trying to fix refineries that are destroyed again within days. It’s barely worth the effort to repair them. Yet if they stop doom is inevitable. It’s inevitable anyway, they simply slow it by a few days.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 6h

thinks some hybrid operation will confuse and deter a NATO response he’s deluded. And he’ll find that out post haste.
Putin’s national economy is in dire straits, Ukraine has a technical edge in the war and the West especially Europe, has found its footing keeping them going. Russia never imagined

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 6h

of Russia’s Master Strategist.
The heaving pile of rust that is the Battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov, more paint than refitted systems and creaking along after twenty years being refurbished, is the best they can manage at sea, though their submarines are a threat and then some. If Putin really

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 6h

really viable.
There is another camp that says Russia is building up its forces for a once in a lifetime opportunity to attack NATO.
If he had the forces for that he’d use them in his campaign against Ukraine. Starting a second war on a bigger scale is surely even beyond the strategic witlessness

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 6h

is, in the current charged atmosphere, going to be an equal and opposite reaction - and it’s unlike to be one Putin suspects - we all know he’s as remote form being a strategic genius as Pluto is from our Sun. A rolling series of close to the line actions that look provocative is about all that’s

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 6h

land that connects Poland to the Baltics state? Does he honestly think Poland will sit back and let that happen? Or NATO? It would more likely result in the crushing of the Kaliningrad enclave - long a thorn in NATO’s side.
Lashing out is always an option but when you do something like that there

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 6h

He wants a hostage? Perhaps the 85% Russian speaking town of Narva on the border but in Estonia. If the little green men made a dramatic move to seize it what would Estonia and more to the point NATO, actually do?
What if he tries to join up the Suwalki salient to Belarus and take Lithuanian

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 6h

LOOSING AND LASHING OUT?
HOW DANGEROUS IS RUSSIA?

One argument running through the analytical minds of many is that now Russia has failed so miserably in Ukraine - and that seems to have sunk in to even the harder line commanders, there’s a danger that Putin may try something very different.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 8h

to a British project unless it’s equal - which it’s too late to the party for now. Germany could and might just slip in as a partner on Tempest because they don’t get hung up on being number one all the time.
It would make Tempest completely viable too. I think it is already but this would be 100%.

The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 8h

I’m not sure it’s entirely doomed but the speed it would need to catch up with everyone else is making it less and less viable. Politically Germany doesn’t want to distance itself so much from a cherished French program, but France can’t do it alone and it won’t play second fiddle as a participant

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 10h

It never stops.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

change or the whole project is potentially doomed.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

go it alone which it cannot afford to do. Germany is loathe to leave France stranded like that, but talks to resolve the work sharing deal between Airbus and Dassault are going nowhere because the French want most of the work for Dassault. Spain is largely dependent on Airbus. Something needs to

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

the Typhoon production line in the UK, Spain and Germany, as the Franco-German-Spanish FCAS sixth gen fighter program looks increasingly endangered. Britain has offered Germany the option to join the Tempest program with Italy & Japan. Spain looks unwilling on cost grounds, leaving France to

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

reconnaissance and Electronic Combat role to the Typhoon, as F-35 takes on the nuclear strike role as the ancient Tornado is phased out.
Germany also signed off the final part of a $1.13 billion program to upgrade the EW systems of the older Typhoon fleet.These are important decisions, maintaining

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

GERMANY SIGNS OFF EUROFIGHTER TRANCHE 5 BUY

Germany signed off a $4.4 billion dollar purchase of advanced Tranche-5 Eurofighters. To be delivered in 2031-34 the advanced version will incorporate electronic ground scan radars, advanced EW systems and will
partly transfer the aged Panavia Tornado

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

All we can do is be aware, counter their moves as Estonia has done and mark it down as another example of their brinkmanship. That’s what it is and it’s not going to stop.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

resources to do it and you only extrapolate what will happen to appreciate this is fear
mongering. Keeping them in our heads, causing wild speculation, aiming to get a rise out of us or even an aggressive response.
Anything that will make us look bad and then look innocent. They want us to worry.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

who they were or where they were from even as everyone knew they were Russian. It’s yet another attempt at intimidating the Baltic nations and forms part of what the Russians term ‘Phase Zero’ of an attempt to attack NATO.
I don’t believe for a minute that their plan - they simply don’t have the

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

RUSSIA JUST KEEPS INTIMIDATING ESTONIA

The ‘little green men’ are back. Estonia closed a road near the Russian border after armed men in green uniforms but without any identifying insignia, appeared on the Russian side.
These infiltration troops were famously used in Crimea in 2014, refusing to say

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 21h

Imagine what would happen if they tried? Extrapolate. Davidoff is an alarmist and knows nothing about strategy. His Telegram channel is filled with unpleasant bigoted comments from followers that disgust me.