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Reposted by Barry Cynamon

Mark G. Sheppard @markgsheppard.com · 4h

I modified the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, creating 3.2k spacial Sahm Rules, which show that #recession exposure can differ by place/time.

The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 13h

Correct. One *can* use balance sheet data and asset returns to estimate “passive saving” and then back out “active saving.” That lets you estimate outlays. I have a study incorporating that methodology coming out soon. In the Moody’s case, look here for clues: doi.org/10.1093/cje/...

Inequality, the Great Recession and slow recovery

Abstract. Rising inequality reduced income growth for the bottom 95% of the US personal income distribution beginning about 1980. To maintain stable debt t

doi.org

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 13h

Re: “how do they go past the most recent SCF”.

Quoting the DFA page: The second step is to transform the reconciled SCF balance sheet … for each sub-population on a quarterly basis between SCF surveys, and FORECASTING these balance sheets for each quarter beyond the most recent survey year.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 13h

I cannot say for sure. When I said “same procedure,” I was painting in broad strokes: I meant using a combination of SCF waves for distributional information and aggregate series for higher frequency flow information.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 14h

Mark Zandi explained it to me.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 14h

Look up Maki and Palumbo (2001) in the references in this paper. See also, discussion in this paper. The idea is interpolating aggregate series (e.g. FAOTUS née Flow of Funds or BEA NIPA tables) anchoring on the SCF balance sheet data every three years. academic.oup.com/cje/article-...

Inequality, the Great Recession and slow recovery

Abstract. Rising inequality reduced income growth for the bottom 95% of the US personal income distribution beginning about 1980. To maintain stable debt t

academic.oup.com

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 14h

The Moody‘s disaggregated consumption series follows a procedure similar to the Maki and Palumbo paper here: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 1d

How long can they Merrick this duly elected representative?

Adelita for Congress @adelitaforcongress.bsky.social · 1d

Speaker Johnson, you ready to swear me in?

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 1d

I’ve been thinking about this news today. Many will infer that taking protein powder is a bad idea; people consume too much protein, etc. Others will ask why this type of testing isn’t compulsory for supplements and other food production. I am wondering what we can do to get the led out of the soil.

paris martineau @paris.nyc · 1d

my latest investigation for @consumerreports.org is based on months of reporting and 60+ lab tests of leading protein supplements

we found that most protein powders and shakes have more lead in one serving than our experts say is safe to have in a day (🧵)

www.consumerreports.org/lead/protein...

Protein Powders and Shakes Contain High Levels of Lead - Consumer Reports

CR tests of 23 popular protein powders and shakes found that most contain high levels of lead.

www.consumerreports.org

Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 1d

Try the new Cheerios with myostatin inhibitors.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 2d

Postmodern finance theory is a fancy way of saying animal spirits.

eggnog slut @deus01.bsky.social · 2d

postmodern finance theory

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Reposted by Barry Cynamon

Starfish Who Can’t Think Something Witty @irhottakes.bsky.social · 3d

I love RPG shops. Going over to some dumpy looking peasant and being like “Here’s 50,000 gold pieces. I need a tome of necromancy, three scrolls of fireball, a potion of invisibility, a dagger, an axe, an amulet of feather fall, and no questions asked,” is such a mood.

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