November 27, 2025 at 10:00 AM
🚨 Winter Storm Watch issued November 27 at 2:48AM CST until November 30 at 6:00AM CST by NWS La Crosse WI 🚨
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
November 27, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 Winter Storm Watch issued November 27 at 2:48AM CST until November 30 at 6:00AM CST by NWS La Crosse WI 🚨
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
While resilience to job loss has been linked to fertility intentions, new evidence indicates that uncertainty about coping with job loss lowers fertility intentions more than poor reemployment prospects for Swedish men in childless couples.
www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
November 27, 2025 at 7:57 AM
While resilience to job loss has been linked to fertility intentions, new evidence indicates that uncertainty about coping with job loss lowers fertility intentions more than poor reemployment prospects for Swedish men in childless couples.
www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
— #PathToNowhere #PTN
[Lone Shore Beacon] Event Arrest Starts
■ Event Duration: December 2nd, 14:00 - December 24th, 13:59 (Server Time)
■ Event Description: During the event period, the probabilities of obtaining S-Class Sinner [Ceto], A-Class Sinners [Ark], [Iron], and [Anne] in Arrest increase.
[Lone Shore Beacon] Event Arrest Starts
■ Event Duration: December 2nd, 14:00 - December 24th, 13:59 (Server Time)
■ Event Description: During the event period, the probabilities of obtaining S-Class Sinner [Ceto], A-Class Sinners [Ark], [Iron], and [Anne] in Arrest increase.
November 27, 2025 at 4:48 AM
— #PathToNowhere #PTN
[Lone Shore Beacon] Event Arrest Starts
■ Event Duration: December 2nd, 14:00 - December 24th, 13:59 (Server Time)
■ Event Description: During the event period, the probabilities of obtaining S-Class Sinner [Ceto], A-Class Sinners [Ark], [Iron], and [Anne] in Arrest increase.
[Lone Shore Beacon] Event Arrest Starts
■ Event Duration: December 2nd, 14:00 - December 24th, 13:59 (Server Time)
■ Event Description: During the event period, the probabilities of obtaining S-Class Sinner [Ceto], A-Class Sinners [Ark], [Iron], and [Anne] in Arrest increase.
Do I believe in astrology?
Well...no.
But there is something to be said about trying to grasp the enormity of probabilities that have to align to result in you.
Well...no.
But there is something to be said about trying to grasp the enormity of probabilities that have to align to result in you.
November 27, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Do I believe in astrology?
Well...no.
But there is something to be said about trying to grasp the enormity of probabilities that have to align to result in you.
Well...no.
But there is something to be said about trying to grasp the enormity of probabilities that have to align to result in you.
TOP issues Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) at Nov 26, 10:20 PM CST ...Table 1--Probabilities for minormoderate and major flooding... via IEMbot
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
November 27, 2025 at 4:28 AM
TOP issues Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) at Nov 26, 10:20 PM CST ...Table 1--Probabilities for minormoderate and major flooding... via IEMbot
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
We don't have to speculate on what the fed is going to do We let the bond market price in probabilities using Fed funds futures.
November 27, 2025 at 1:45 AM
We don't have to speculate on what the fed is going to do We let the bond market price in probabilities using Fed funds futures.
*WEEKEND SNOW UPDATE*
Here are the probabilities for snow amounts Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. We'll have more specific snow forecasts over the next few days. Higher numbers are expected northwest of Toledo and lower numbers are expected southeast of Toledo.
Here are the probabilities for snow amounts Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. We'll have more specific snow forecasts over the next few days. Higher numbers are expected northwest of Toledo and lower numbers are expected southeast of Toledo.
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 AM
*WEEKEND SNOW UPDATE*
Here are the probabilities for snow amounts Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. We'll have more specific snow forecasts over the next few days. Higher numbers are expected northwest of Toledo and lower numbers are expected southeast of Toledo.
Here are the probabilities for snow amounts Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. We'll have more specific snow forecasts over the next few days. Higher numbers are expected northwest of Toledo and lower numbers are expected southeast of Toledo.
*WEEKEND SNOW UPDATE*
Here are the probabilities for snow amounts Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. We'll have more specific snow forecasts over the next few days. Higher numbers are expected northwest of Toledo and lower numbers are expected southeast of Toledo.
Here are the probabilities for snow amounts Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. We'll have more specific snow forecasts over the next few days. Higher numbers are expected northwest of Toledo and lower numbers are expected southeast of Toledo.
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 AM
*WEEKEND SNOW UPDATE*
Here are the probabilities for snow amounts Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. We'll have more specific snow forecasts over the next few days. Higher numbers are expected northwest of Toledo and lower numbers are expected southeast of Toledo.
Here are the probabilities for snow amounts Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. We'll have more specific snow forecasts over the next few days. Higher numbers are expected northwest of Toledo and lower numbers are expected southeast of Toledo.
Makes me think of people who thought every step against COVID-19 harm--vaccination, public health measures--should either be 100% protective forever like a magic force field, or not be done at all. Like percentages and probabilities just didn't matter.
November 27, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Makes me think of people who thought every step against COVID-19 harm--vaccination, public health measures--should either be 100% protective forever like a magic force field, or not be done at all. Like percentages and probabilities just didn't matter.
Oh yeah, critical mass of children leads to only being able to count them via probabilities, like electrons. The Little Cousin Cloud phenomenon.
November 26, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Oh yeah, critical mass of children leads to only being able to count them via probabilities, like electrons. The Little Cousin Cloud phenomenon.
FSD issues Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) at Nov 26, 3:49 PM CST ...Table 1--Probabilities for minormoderate and major flooding... via IEMbot
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
November 26, 2025 at 10:08 PM
FSD issues Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) at Nov 26, 3:49 PM CST ...Table 1--Probabilities for minormoderate and major flooding... via IEMbot
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
🏒🥅🚨
Wednesday NHL win probabilities:
Wednesday NHL win probabilities:
November 26, 2025 at 9:54 PM
🏒🥅🚨
Wednesday NHL win probabilities:
Wednesday NHL win probabilities:
I remember, even as a kid, hearing this argument and thinking, "wow, people really don't understand probabilities or balancing risks."
November 26, 2025 at 9:47 PM
I remember, even as a kid, hearing this argument and thinking, "wow, people really don't understand probabilities or balancing risks."
Let us say you have some partial knowledge about a quantity of interest before any data is analyzed. Knowledge is specified by a set of lower and upper probabilities assigned to hypotheses about said quantity, and is time-indexed. Can you any-time validity with improved efficiency?
Regularized e-processes: anytime valid inference with knowledge-based efficiency gains
Classical statistical methods have theoretical justification when the sample size is predetermined. In applications, however, it's often the case that sample sizes are data-dependent rather than prede...
arxiv.org
November 26, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Let us say you have some partial knowledge about a quantity of interest before any data is analyzed. Knowledge is specified by a set of lower and upper probabilities assigned to hypotheses about said quantity, and is time-indexed. Can you any-time validity with improved efficiency?
Not quite confident enough yet to post totals (they range from 5” to over a foot right now) but probabilities continue to hone in on what looks to be a considerable storm across much of the Midwest on Friday night into Sunday Here are four models, Canadian, European, United pic.x.com/sgds3xcrqH -...
November 26, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Not quite confident enough yet to post totals (they range from 5” to over a foot right now) but probabilities continue to hone in on what looks to be a considerable storm across much of the Midwest on Friday night into Sunday Here are four models, Canadian, European, United pic.x.com/sgds3xcrqH -...
Amazon SageMaker AI now supports advanced Amazon Nova model evaluation with custom metrics, LLM-as-a-judge comparisons, token-level log probabilities, metadata analysis, and multi-node scaling for comprehensive model assessment.
Evaluate models with the Amazon Nova evaluation container using Amazon SageMaker AI
Amazon SageMaker AI now supports advanced Amazon Nova model evaluation with custom metrics, LLM-as-a-judge comparisons, token-level log probabilities, metadata analysis, and multi-node scaling for comprehensive model assessment.
aws-news.com
November 26, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Amazon SageMaker AI now supports advanced Amazon Nova model evaluation with custom metrics, LLM-as-a-judge comparisons, token-level log probabilities, metadata analysis, and multi-node scaling for comprehensive model assessment.
3. Relating these probabilities allows us to calculate the Bayes Factor for and against a meaningful difference between conditions.
Advantage of this combination of methods: This is computationally very slim (as compared to e.g. bridge sampling) and it's intuitive. 4/🧵
Advantage of this combination of methods: This is computationally very slim (as compared to e.g. bridge sampling) and it's intuitive. 4/🧵
November 26, 2025 at 6:47 PM
3. Relating these probabilities allows us to calculate the Bayes Factor for and against a meaningful difference between conditions.
Advantage of this combination of methods: This is computationally very slim (as compared to e.g. bridge sampling) and it's intuitive. 4/🧵
Advantage of this combination of methods: This is computationally very slim (as compared to e.g. bridge sampling) and it's intuitive. 4/🧵
The way I see it, with my layman's eyes and semi-tech-illiterate understanding, is that LLMs merely mimic understanding, and understanding is a part of true human-level intelligence. LLMs rely on patterns and probabilities, not actual understanding. Therefore, they fall short.
November 26, 2025 at 6:29 PM
The way I see it, with my layman's eyes and semi-tech-illiterate understanding, is that LLMs merely mimic understanding, and understanding is a part of true human-level intelligence. LLMs rely on patterns and probabilities, not actual understanding. Therefore, they fall short.
ILX issues Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) at Nov 26, 12:13 PM CST ...Table 1--Probabilities for minormoderate and major flooding... via IEMbot
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
November 26, 2025 at 6:27 PM
ILX issues Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) at Nov 26, 12:13 PM CST ...Table 1--Probabilities for minormoderate and major flooding... via IEMbot
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
I think we need to understand far, far more about how life originates before we can say how likely it is. Right now, we're not even able to say if the sole observed lineage arose from an abiogenesis or panspermia event on Earth. That's a very poor knowledge base to extract probabilities from.
November 26, 2025 at 6:08 PM
I think we need to understand far, far more about how life originates before we can say how likely it is. Right now, we're not even able to say if the sole observed lineage arose from an abiogenesis or panspermia event on Earth. That's a very poor knowledge base to extract probabilities from.
Most AI researchers agree existential risk from AI has LOW probability.
But low ≠ zero.
And when we're talking about existential outcomes, non-zero probabilities require:
- Serious research
- Robust safety measures
- Contingency planning
(5/7)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safety_...
But low ≠ zero.
And when we're talking about existential outcomes, non-zero probabilities require:
- Serious research
- Robust safety measures
- Contingency planning
(5/7)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safety_...
Safety engineering - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
November 26, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Most AI researchers agree existential risk from AI has LOW probability.
But low ≠ zero.
And when we're talking about existential outcomes, non-zero probabilities require:
- Serious research
- Robust safety measures
- Contingency planning
(5/7)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safety_...
But low ≠ zero.
And when we're talking about existential outcomes, non-zero probabilities require:
- Serious research
- Robust safety measures
- Contingency planning
(5/7)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safety_...
What matters is: Probability × Magnitude of Harm = Risk
When harm could be civilization-ending, even tiny probabilities demand serious attention.
(2/7)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_ma...
When harm could be civilization-ending, even tiny probabilities demand serious attention.
(2/7)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_ma...
Risk matrix - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
November 26, 2025 at 6:05 PM
What matters is: Probability × Magnitude of Harm = Risk
When harm could be civilization-ending, even tiny probabilities demand serious attention.
(2/7)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_ma...
When harm could be civilization-ending, even tiny probabilities demand serious attention.
(2/7)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_ma...
I think youre conflating generative AI with AI in general. Generative AI is probabilities and always will be because of how its built that severely limits its utility. While there are actual uses for types of LLMs as tools, its not the same thing as Gen AI
November 26, 2025 at 5:49 PM
I think youre conflating generative AI with AI in general. Generative AI is probabilities and always will be because of how its built that severely limits its utility. While there are actual uses for types of LLMs as tools, its not the same thing as Gen AI
"Probability of salvation" is a very real thing if salvation is not pre-determined before birth.
By any criteria we can possibly conceive related to beliefs or actions, there are higher probabilities of them occurring on a frequentist basis if pre-determinism isn't true.
By any criteria we can possibly conceive related to beliefs or actions, there are higher probabilities of them occurring on a frequentist basis if pre-determinism isn't true.
November 26, 2025 at 5:38 PM
"Probability of salvation" is a very real thing if salvation is not pre-determined before birth.
By any criteria we can possibly conceive related to beliefs or actions, there are higher probabilities of them occurring on a frequentist basis if pre-determinism isn't true.
By any criteria we can possibly conceive related to beliefs or actions, there are higher probabilities of them occurring on a frequentist basis if pre-determinism isn't true.