Steve Rayson
@steverayson.bsky.social
Author of The Fall of the Red Wall and Badgeland. Co-founder Buzzsumo and Kineo. My latest book is Collapse of the Conservatives.
Pinned
Steve Rayson
@steverayson.bsky.social
· Dec 5
My new book 'Collapse of the Conservatives: Volatile Voters, Broken Britain and a Punishment Election' is now out! You can get a copy at amzn.to/48fzWsp
Reposted by Steve Rayson
The single biggest thing (in cost terms) I’ve changed my mind about is UK tuition fees. Dreadful system, need to scrap it.
This is clearly depressing and radicalising in a way a tax wouldn't have been.
January 15, 2026 at 5:30 PM
The single biggest thing (in cost terms) I’ve changed my mind about is UK tuition fees. Dreadful system, need to scrap it.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Great piece on pressures on European state pension schemes including this chart showing comparative cost now and projection to 2070. UK costs relatively low in comparison to most others www.ft.com/content/9c3c...
January 15, 2026 at 7:53 AM
Great piece on pressures on European state pension schemes including this chart showing comparative cost now and projection to 2070. UK costs relatively low in comparison to most others www.ft.com/content/9c3c...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Great review by @PeterKellner1 of The British General Election of 2024 www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7209...
Half the picture: what ‘The British General Election of 2024’ doesn’t reveal
This 22nd book in the series lacks something that made its predecessors so compelling—an understanding of the people involved in the campaign, not jus...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
January 13, 2026 at 7:57 PM
Great review by @PeterKellner1 of The British General Election of 2024 www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7209...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
In their hearts, MPs from all parties know that Britain needs a new, fair and affordable plan for pensions. My Substack (subscriptions are free) argues that It will take guts, but one might be on the way
kellnerp.substack.com/p/can-britai...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/can-britai...
Can Britain succeed where France has failed?
Needed: a fair, affordable plan for pensions. It will take guts, but might be on the way
kellnerp.substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 7:05 AM
In their hearts, MPs from all parties know that Britain needs a new, fair and affordable plan for pensions. My Substack (subscriptions are free) argues that It will take guts, but one might be on the way
kellnerp.substack.com/p/can-britai...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/can-britai...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Properly funding the court system would clear the backlog even more quickly.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Slashing jury trials could clear courts backlog within a decade, says Lammy
Exclusive: Lord chancellor urges MPs to back judge-only trials in thousands of criminal cases in England and Wales
www.theguardian.com
January 11, 2026 at 7:13 PM
Properly funding the court system would clear the backlog even more quickly.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
ladies, it's ok because only paying subscribers can make/distribute deepfake porn of you and your children now www.ft.com/content/c24d...
Elon Musk’s xAI restricts Grok after outcry over sexualised images
Start-up limits use of image generation system to paid users following spread of deepfakes and child sex abuse material
www.ft.com
January 9, 2026 at 11:36 AM
ladies, it's ok because only paying subscribers can make/distribute deepfake porn of you and your children now www.ft.com/content/c24d...
How is this any better?
January 9, 2026 at 12:13 PM
How is this any better?
Reposted by Steve Rayson
So many reasons I could not cut it in politics, but one is I would just laugh inappropriately too much. Imagine, you’re at a meeting of senior leaders and the CEO comes out with this crap.
Keir Starmer has this morning urged Cabinet to keep its nerve amid grim opinion polling (today’s YouGov put Labour in third place behind Reform & Tories)
“Governments do not lose because polls go down. They lose when they lose belief or nerve. We will do neither,” he said
“Governments do not lose because polls go down. They lose when they lose belief or nerve. We will do neither,” he said
January 6, 2026 at 2:26 PM
So many reasons I could not cut it in politics, but one is I would just laugh inappropriately too much. Imagine, you’re at a meeting of senior leaders and the CEO comes out with this crap.
Who’s who at X, the deepfake porn site formerly known as Twitter
January 6, 2026 at 6:28 PM
Who’s who at X, the deepfake porn site formerly known as Twitter
Reposted by Steve Rayson
During Fiona Hill's testimony to Congress on Oct 14, 2019, she described how Trump and Putin discussed exchanging Ukraine for Venezuela. The quid pro quo was if Trump refuses to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, Putin would not help Venezuela (a Russian ally) resist a US takeover.
January 4, 2026 at 2:36 AM
During Fiona Hill's testimony to Congress on Oct 14, 2019, she described how Trump and Putin discussed exchanging Ukraine for Venezuela. The quid pro quo was if Trump refuses to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, Putin would not help Venezuela (a Russian ally) resist a US takeover.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
These freaks want territorial expansion and they know Trump will do everything he can to deliver.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
January 3, 2026 at 9:22 PM
These freaks want territorial expansion and they know Trump will do everything he can to deliver.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
European weakness on full display by these horribly contorted responses from Merz, Macron and Starmer - neither condoning nor condemning US actions in Venezuela
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
January 3, 2026 at 7:43 PM
European weakness on full display by these horribly contorted responses from Merz, Macron and Starmer - neither condoning nor condemning US actions in Venezuela
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
Reposted by Steve Rayson
LOL
👺 Russia backs Maduro, says disputes must be settled through dialogue
Russia backs Maduro, says disputes must be settled through dialogue
Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned what it called US armed aggression against Venezuela on 3 January and said it is deeply concerned.
www.pravda.com.ua
January 3, 2026 at 11:41 AM
LOL
Reposted by Steve Rayson
It's New Year, so time to look back and forward. These are 10 things I think we need to recognise in 2026. It’s a response to what I think are profoundly damaging mistaken assumptions I’ve heard and read from practitioners, journalists, and analysts in 2025. Warning: very long🧵
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
It's New Year, so time to look back and forward. These are 10 things I think we need to recognise in 2026. It’s a response to what I think are profoundly damaging mistaken assumptions I’ve heard and read from practitioners, journalists, and analysts in 2025. Warning: very long🧵
Reposted by Steve Rayson
“Who would move to here from the US, Canada, Europe, South Korea or Australia for potentially lower wages, exorbitant visa fees and no certainty of being able to stay very long?” asks @benansell.bsky.social.
Labour’s Mr Micawber politics
The government hopes that ‘something will turn up’ to produce growth, but curbing immigration will only harm the economy
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
December 30, 2025 at 4:40 PM
“Who would move to here from the US, Canada, Europe, South Korea or Australia for potentially lower wages, exorbitant visa fees and no certainty of being able to stay very long?” asks @benansell.bsky.social.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Worse than expected deficits and projections both times, either due to weaker than expected tax revenues, pressure on spending from public sector pay rises, local govt crises, university crises (or all of the above & more). Meaning more tax rises next budget bsky.app/profile/stev...
What surprises, if any, do you anticipate in the OBR 2026 Spring and Autumn forecasts, and what impact will they have on next year's politics?
December 29, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Worse than expected deficits and projections both times, either due to weaker than expected tax revenues, pressure on spending from public sector pay rises, local govt crises, university crises (or all of the above & more). Meaning more tax rises next budget bsky.app/profile/stev...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Labour does so badly in this poll mainly because, as the tables show, they lose 29% of their 2024 vote to the Lib Dems and Greens.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 27% (+12)
CON: 21% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-17)
LDM: 15% (+3)
GRN: 13% (+6)
Via @veriangroup.com, 12-15 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2024.
RFM: 27% (+12)
CON: 21% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-17)
LDM: 15% (+3)
GRN: 13% (+6)
Via @veriangroup.com, 12-15 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2024.
December 20, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Labour does so badly in this poll mainly because, as the tables show, they lose 29% of their 2024 vote to the Lib Dems and Greens.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Interesting piece by Bloomberg’s Alan Crawford fleshing out my thesis on “collar flipping” in the UK, and how this might shift the political geography of the U.K. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The "collar flip"....what if class politics shifted in the UK?
Why the rise of AI, might change our politics in the UK (and US!)
open.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Interesting piece by Bloomberg’s Alan Crawford fleshing out my thesis on “collar flipping” in the UK, and how this might shift the political geography of the U.K. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Putting to one side the objective wrongness of this, for Labour politically, it’s wildly misconceived. There is already an asteroid hurtling in their direction and, far from deflecting it, this is an invitation for all the asteroids to hit them at once.
Electoral Commission responds to potential election postponements
We are concerned by the possibility of some council elections in May being postponed, and even more by any further postponement to those which already had been deferred from 2025.
www.electoralcommission.org.uk
December 19, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Putting to one side the objective wrongness of this, for Labour politically, it’s wildly misconceived. There is already an asteroid hurtling in their direction and, far from deflecting it, this is an invitation for all the asteroids to hit them at once.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Cutting the number of lobby briefings in half is one thing.
Saying they will simply cancel the briefings altogether on some days, in exchange for 'press conferences' where they choose which news organisations they can exclude questions from is quite another.
Saying they will simply cancel the briefings altogether on some days, in exchange for 'press conferences' where they choose which news organisations they can exclude questions from is quite another.
December 18, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Cutting the number of lobby briefings in half is one thing.
Saying they will simply cancel the briefings altogether on some days, in exchange for 'press conferences' where they choose which news organisations they can exclude questions from is quite another.
Saying they will simply cancel the briefings altogether on some days, in exchange for 'press conferences' where they choose which news organisations they can exclude questions from is quite another.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
The Labour government has today asked Conservative-led West Sussex County Council to decide if they would like an extra year in power.
This looks like another anti-democratic stitch up.
Elections must go ahead.
Sign my petition here: www.midsussexlibdems.org.uk/campaigns/st...
This looks like another anti-democratic stitch up.
Elections must go ahead.
Sign my petition here: www.midsussexlibdems.org.uk/campaigns/st...
December 18, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The Labour government has today asked Conservative-led West Sussex County Council to decide if they would like an extra year in power.
This looks like another anti-democratic stitch up.
Elections must go ahead.
Sign my petition here: www.midsussexlibdems.org.uk/campaigns/st...
This looks like another anti-democratic stitch up.
Elections must go ahead.
Sign my petition here: www.midsussexlibdems.org.uk/campaigns/st...
Really enjoyed this informative podcast from @markpackuk.bsky.social with @psurridge.bsky.social and @robfordmancs.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/n...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/n...
Have we become too critical of Labour's general election campaign?
Podcast Episode · Never Mind The Bar Charts · 14/12/2025 · 59m
podcasts.apple.com
December 15, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Really enjoyed this informative podcast from @markpackuk.bsky.social with @psurridge.bsky.social and @robfordmancs.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/n...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/n...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Catch-up: British energy policy – not cheap, not home-grown and not secure. Dieter Helm (3 Nov) via Ian Leslie dieterhelm.co.uk/energy-clima...
British energy policy – not cheap, not home-grown and not secure - Dieter Helm
Some people – and some politicians – seem to believe that if you keep repeating claims eventually they will be believed, even as the evidence unfolds that they are obviously just not true. Any counter...
dieterhelm.co.uk
December 13, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Catch-up: British energy policy – not cheap, not home-grown and not secure. Dieter Helm (3 Nov) via Ian Leslie dieterhelm.co.uk/energy-clima...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
The Appendices for The British General Election of 2024 book are available (for free) under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.
The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.
The British General Election of 2024
The British General Election of 2024 is the definitive account of one of the most consequential elections in recent times.
link.springer.com
December 9, 2025 at 3:56 PM
The Appendices for The British General Election of 2024 book are available (for free) under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.
The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Welcome to Britain, a country so short of dentists that an MP's 87-year-old mum pulled her teeth out with pliers. Also a country with thousands of foreign-qualified dentists who can’t work until they pass an exam so oversubscribed it’s like trying to book Glasto tickets. www.ft.com/content/f4e5...
December 9, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Welcome to Britain, a country so short of dentists that an MP's 87-year-old mum pulled her teeth out with pliers. Also a country with thousands of foreign-qualified dentists who can’t work until they pass an exam so oversubscribed it’s like trying to book Glasto tickets. www.ft.com/content/f4e5...