Matthew Palmer
@so3brocktree.bsky.social
🇬🇧 Former soldier. Accidental journalist. Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy and RNSSC.
Thoughts & feelings on defence and other things. Not always serious. Views my own.
Longer thoughts & feelings on substack:
https://crackingdefence.substack.com/
Thoughts & feelings on defence and other things. Not always serious. Views my own.
Longer thoughts & feelings on substack:
https://crackingdefence.substack.com/
Pinned
We are pleased to announce that @so3brocktree.bsky.social is joining us as the Sir John Moore Adjunct Fellow in Military Affairs!
🔗 Read the full announcement: bit.ly/4mtunwr
🚨 Dive straight into Matthew’s analysis on sub-threshold threats: bit.ly/3UgIE3t
🔗 Read the full announcement: bit.ly/4mtunwr
🚨 Dive straight into Matthew’s analysis on sub-threshold threats: bit.ly/3UgIE3t
Very chuffed to announce that I am now a Fellow of the @congeostrategy.bsky.social!
I'll be writing predominantly on grey-zone threats and joint operations for the Council, while continuing my work on Substack and for the RNSSC.
Please do get in contact if you are interested in any of the above!
I'll be writing predominantly on grey-zone threats and joint operations for the Council, while continuing my work on Substack and for the RNSSC.
Please do get in contact if you are interested in any of the above!
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Online Violence Against Women & Girls can impact their physical & mental health, stop them from participating in society, and lead to real-life violence.
Read our explainer to learn how social media platforms are enabling online VAWG and what they can do to stop it👇
Read our explainer to learn how social media platforms are enabling online VAWG and what they can do to stop it👇
Violence against women and girls online: explained
Social media platforms are enabling violence against women and girls (VAWG) online. Here’s how.
counterhate.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Online Violence Against Women & Girls can impact their physical & mental health, stop them from participating in society, and lead to real-life violence.
Read our explainer to learn how social media platforms are enabling online VAWG and what they can do to stop it👇
Read our explainer to learn how social media platforms are enabling online VAWG and what they can do to stop it👇
That will do wonders for morale.
An expensive vehicle delivered 8 years late which is still apparently causing troops to suffer hearing injuries - 2 weeks after it was declared safe.
An expensive vehicle delivered 8 years late which is still apparently causing troops to suffer hearing injuries - 2 weeks after it was declared safe.
UK halts use of Ajax armoured vehicles after soldiers report hearing problems
Suspension raises fresh questions around Ministry of Defence’s procurement processes
www.ft.com
November 25, 2025 at 5:50 PM
That will do wonders for morale.
An expensive vehicle delivered 8 years late which is still apparently causing troops to suffer hearing injuries - 2 weeks after it was declared safe.
An expensive vehicle delivered 8 years late which is still apparently causing troops to suffer hearing injuries - 2 weeks after it was declared safe.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
The FT, citing senior officials, reports that Ukraine has agreed to limit its Armed Forces to 800,000 troops. Unresolved issues remain: territory and security guarantees.
www.ft.com/content/b0d9...
www.ft.com/content/b0d9...
November 25, 2025 at 1:51 PM
The FT, citing senior officials, reports that Ukraine has agreed to limit its Armed Forces to 800,000 troops. Unresolved issues remain: territory and security guarantees.
www.ft.com/content/b0d9...
www.ft.com/content/b0d9...
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
I guess it’s a compliment that the top story on BBC London’s TV/online output today is a direct lift of a month-old London Centric story? But once again the BBC is consistently the worst news outlet for actually remembering to credit others.
November 25, 2025 at 7:52 AM
I guess it’s a compliment that the top story on BBC London’s TV/online output today is a direct lift of a month-old London Centric story? But once again the BBC is consistently the worst news outlet for actually remembering to credit others.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Global History is one of the most exciting areas of critical work at the moment for precisely the reason that it's blowing open parochialism across the whole field, and shattering base assumptions about today's world. It's brilliant.
A regular criticism I get from that kind of person is to say that 'we have tried this for the last 30 years and look where we are now', which even before 'I mean, 2025 is not so bad in the sweep of human history'...why do you think globalisation is a 30 year thing??
some of what they hate is globalisation, which like, what do you want me to do about that? uninvent oil tankers?
November 24, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Global History is one of the most exciting areas of critical work at the moment for precisely the reason that it's blowing open parochialism across the whole field, and shattering base assumptions about today's world. It's brilliant.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
'Pressure on Russia needs to shift....from linear incremental changes to a campaign of pressures that generate mass, velocity, and cascading effects.'
100%. Western strategy towards Russia is fragmented and fundamentally reactive. We have so many strengths and refuse to use them effectively.
100%. Western strategy towards Russia is fragmented and fundamentally reactive. We have so many strengths and refuse to use them effectively.
As ISW's Nataliya Bugayova writes, NATO is both behind the curve of the Russian threat and also underutilizing the opportunity to contest Russian initiative at a relatively low risk and cost compared with the challenge it will face when the rate of the Russian attacks can grow exponentially (1/5)
November 24, 2025 at 8:38 PM
'Pressure on Russia needs to shift....from linear incremental changes to a campaign of pressures that generate mass, velocity, and cascading effects.'
100%. Western strategy towards Russia is fragmented and fundamentally reactive. We have so many strengths and refuse to use them effectively.
100%. Western strategy towards Russia is fragmented and fundamentally reactive. We have so many strengths and refuse to use them effectively.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
“Without sovereignty - military, health, financial and digital - we can no longer guarantee the rule of law.”
This is likely to increasingly become a topic.
This is likely to increasingly become a topic.
November 24, 2025 at 8:16 PM
“Without sovereignty - military, health, financial and digital - we can no longer guarantee the rule of law.”
This is likely to increasingly become a topic.
This is likely to increasingly become a topic.
'Pressure on Russia needs to shift....from linear incremental changes to a campaign of pressures that generate mass, velocity, and cascading effects.'
100%. Western strategy towards Russia is fragmented and fundamentally reactive. We have so many strengths and refuse to use them effectively.
100%. Western strategy towards Russia is fragmented and fundamentally reactive. We have so many strengths and refuse to use them effectively.
As ISW's Nataliya Bugayova writes, NATO is both behind the curve of the Russian threat and also underutilizing the opportunity to contest Russian initiative at a relatively low risk and cost compared with the challenge it will face when the rate of the Russian attacks can grow exponentially (1/5)
November 24, 2025 at 8:38 PM
'Pressure on Russia needs to shift....from linear incremental changes to a campaign of pressures that generate mass, velocity, and cascading effects.'
100%. Western strategy towards Russia is fragmented and fundamentally reactive. We have so many strengths and refuse to use them effectively.
100%. Western strategy towards Russia is fragmented and fundamentally reactive. We have so many strengths and refuse to use them effectively.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
I'm hardly the only one, but I've been warning against the 'warrior' language and symbolism for years (foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/19/u...)
November 24, 2025 at 8:05 PM
I'm hardly the only one, but I've been warning against the 'warrior' language and symbolism for years (foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/19/u...)
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
READ: The New Syrian Army: Order of Battle, by Kelly Campa and Brian Carter (1/8)
Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Shara and his political coalition are building a new army as part of their effort to unite and consolidate their control over Syria after the nearly 14-year Syrian civil war.
Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Shara and his political coalition are building a new army as part of their effort to unite and consolidate their control over Syria after the nearly 14-year Syrian civil war.
November 24, 2025 at 6:43 PM
READ: The New Syrian Army: Order of Battle, by Kelly Campa and Brian Carter (1/8)
Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Shara and his political coalition are building a new army as part of their effort to unite and consolidate their control over Syria after the nearly 14-year Syrian civil war.
Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Shara and his political coalition are building a new army as part of their effort to unite and consolidate their control over Syria after the nearly 14-year Syrian civil war.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
'Raiding risks becoming a tactic without an operational framework'.
My biggest concern with the RM, especially in a conventional conflict.
I'm supportive of the idea that the RM should start picking up some long-ranged naval missiles so they can more effectively contest the Arctic and Baltic.
My biggest concern with the RM, especially in a conventional conflict.
I'm supportive of the idea that the RM should start picking up some long-ranged naval missiles so they can more effectively contest the Arctic and Baltic.
Latest analysis article:
Austerity and ambition: reshaping the Royal Marines for modern conflict
www.navylookout.com/austerity-an...
Austerity and ambition: reshaping the Royal Marines for modern conflict
www.navylookout.com/austerity-an...
November 24, 2025 at 8:22 AM
'Raiding risks becoming a tactic without an operational framework'.
My biggest concern with the RM, especially in a conventional conflict.
I'm supportive of the idea that the RM should start picking up some long-ranged naval missiles so they can more effectively contest the Arctic and Baltic.
My biggest concern with the RM, especially in a conventional conflict.
I'm supportive of the idea that the RM should start picking up some long-ranged naval missiles so they can more effectively contest the Arctic and Baltic.
'Raiding risks becoming a tactic without an operational framework'.
My biggest concern with the RM, especially in a conventional conflict.
I'm supportive of the idea that the RM should start picking up some long-ranged naval missiles so they can more effectively contest the Arctic and Baltic.
My biggest concern with the RM, especially in a conventional conflict.
I'm supportive of the idea that the RM should start picking up some long-ranged naval missiles so they can more effectively contest the Arctic and Baltic.
Latest analysis article:
Austerity and ambition: reshaping the Royal Marines for modern conflict
www.navylookout.com/austerity-an...
Austerity and ambition: reshaping the Royal Marines for modern conflict
www.navylookout.com/austerity-an...
November 24, 2025 at 8:22 AM
'Raiding risks becoming a tactic without an operational framework'.
My biggest concern with the RM, especially in a conventional conflict.
I'm supportive of the idea that the RM should start picking up some long-ranged naval missiles so they can more effectively contest the Arctic and Baltic.
My biggest concern with the RM, especially in a conventional conflict.
I'm supportive of the idea that the RM should start picking up some long-ranged naval missiles so they can more effectively contest the Arctic and Baltic.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
My interest is always piqued when this comes out each year. However, I will say that I think the index is missing a 'dynamism' score, which would lead to more interesting comparisons. Some of the top scorers are very nice but frankly a little dull (and very expensive!).
The world’s most liveable cities in 2025
Vienna has lost its crown. Instability threatens living standards everywhere
www.economist.com
November 23, 2025 at 12:53 PM
My interest is always piqued when this comes out each year. However, I will say that I think the index is missing a 'dynamism' score, which would lead to more interesting comparisons. Some of the top scorers are very nice but frankly a little dull (and very expensive!).
My interest is always piqued when this comes out each year. However, I will say that I think the index is missing a 'dynamism' score, which would lead to more interesting comparisons. Some of the top scorers are very nice but frankly a little dull (and very expensive!).
The world’s most liveable cities in 2025
Vienna has lost its crown. Instability threatens living standards everywhere
www.economist.com
November 23, 2025 at 12:53 PM
My interest is always piqued when this comes out each year. However, I will say that I think the index is missing a 'dynamism' score, which would lead to more interesting comparisons. Some of the top scorers are very nice but frankly a little dull (and very expensive!).
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
The UK & Indonesia have agreed a landmark £4bn maritime deal securing 1000 jobs in the UK & support British industry.
The deal will see the UK & Indonesia jointly develop maritime capability for Indonesia's navy & more than 1,000 vessels for its fishing fleets to boost food security.
The deal will see the UK & Indonesia jointly develop maritime capability for Indonesia's navy & more than 1,000 vessels for its fishing fleets to boost food security.
£4bn maritime deal with Indonesia set to boost British jobs and support Indo-Pacific security
The UK and Indonesia have agreed a landmark £4 billion maritime deal securing 1000 jobs in the UK in the latest boost for the British industry.
www.gov.uk
November 22, 2025 at 8:38 AM
The UK & Indonesia have agreed a landmark £4bn maritime deal securing 1000 jobs in the UK & support British industry.
The deal will see the UK & Indonesia jointly develop maritime capability for Indonesia's navy & more than 1,000 vessels for its fishing fleets to boost food security.
The deal will see the UK & Indonesia jointly develop maritime capability for Indonesia's navy & more than 1,000 vessels for its fishing fleets to boost food security.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Tale as old as time. Services always are going to fight.
Problem is that I can see us half-arsing it, as usual, leaving no-one satisfied.
Problem is that I can see us half-arsing it, as usual, leaving no-one satisfied.
Royal Navy in row with army over funding to tackle Russian threat
Branches of armed forces press their case for greater investment but views diverge on where conflict may arise
www.ft.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:51 AM
Tale as old as time. Services always are going to fight.
Problem is that I can see us half-arsing it, as usual, leaving no-one satisfied.
Problem is that I can see us half-arsing it, as usual, leaving no-one satisfied.
Tale as old as time. Services always are going to fight.
Problem is that I can see us half-arsing it, as usual, leaving no-one satisfied.
Problem is that I can see us half-arsing it, as usual, leaving no-one satisfied.
Royal Navy in row with army over funding to tackle Russian threat
Branches of armed forces press their case for greater investment but views diverge on where conflict may arise
www.ft.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:51 AM
Tale as old as time. Services always are going to fight.
Problem is that I can see us half-arsing it, as usual, leaving no-one satisfied.
Problem is that I can see us half-arsing it, as usual, leaving no-one satisfied.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
In 2010 I first spent an extended period of time in the US on research. And my main takesway from that time was how deluded Europeans in general are if we think of the US as little more than a very powerful extension of Europe on the other side of the Atlantic. This is not an anti-american point.
'America is British'.
It turns out Danny Kruger is peak 'Americans are the same as us'.
Until this mindset – conscious and subconscious – is defeated in Britain, we'll never see ourselves as properly European.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
It turns out Danny Kruger is peak 'Americans are the same as us'.
Until this mindset – conscious and subconscious – is defeated in Britain, we'll never see ourselves as properly European.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
‘America is British’. Heaven is ‘a socialist state’. David Attenborough is ‘anti-human’ – the startling theories of Reform MP Danny Kruger
He was a Conservative party big-hitter who wrote speeches for David Cameron and worked with Boris Johnson before he suddenly jumped ship. He talks family, flags and why Nigel Farage is ‘top dog’
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:01 AM
In 2010 I first spent an extended period of time in the US on research. And my main takesway from that time was how deluded Europeans in general are if we think of the US as little more than a very powerful extension of Europe on the other side of the Atlantic. This is not an anti-american point.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
The US has issued a new NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions) for the entire Venezuelan Flight Information Region, advising of a hazardous security environment amid worsening conditions and heightened military activity in and around Venezuela.
November 21, 2025 at 8:02 PM
The US has issued a new NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions) for the entire Venezuelan Flight Information Region, advising of a hazardous security environment amid worsening conditions and heightened military activity in and around Venezuela.
Good short overview of changing Japanese defence concerns and priorities - and the challenges of implementation.
How will Japan’s defences evolve under its hawkish new leader?
Takaichi Sanae wants bigger budgets, better spooks and a stronger arms industry
www.economist.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Good short overview of changing Japanese defence concerns and priorities - and the challenges of implementation.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
For those who want to read the 'peace plan' it is here, courtesy of the @financialtimes.com.
Tldr, Russia basically gets what it wants, and the US gets paid for it.
Tldr, Russia basically gets what it wants, and the US gets paid for it.
Read the full text of Trump’s 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan
Proposed deal would limit size of Ukrainian forces and calls on Kyiv to withdraw troops from eastern Donetsk
www.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:45 AM
For those who want to read the 'peace plan' it is here, courtesy of the @financialtimes.com.
Tldr, Russia basically gets what it wants, and the US gets paid for it.
Tldr, Russia basically gets what it wants, and the US gets paid for it.
For those who want to read the 'peace plan' it is here, courtesy of the @financialtimes.com.
Tldr, Russia basically gets what it wants, and the US gets paid for it.
Tldr, Russia basically gets what it wants, and the US gets paid for it.
Read the full text of Trump’s 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan
Proposed deal would limit size of Ukrainian forces and calls on Kyiv to withdraw troops from eastern Donetsk
www.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:45 AM
For those who want to read the 'peace plan' it is here, courtesy of the @financialtimes.com.
Tldr, Russia basically gets what it wants, and the US gets paid for it.
Tldr, Russia basically gets what it wants, and the US gets paid for it.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
If you use GMail, AI (Gemini) was turned on yesterday by default and now scans all of your content for machine learning. To turn off, go to Settings>General and scroll down. Uncheck the box for "Smart features."
There's other "Smart" add-ons as well, but that's the one that reads your content.
There's other "Smart" add-ons as well, but that's the one that reads your content.
November 20, 2025 at 5:32 PM
If you use GMail, AI (Gemini) was turned on yesterday by default and now scans all of your content for machine learning. To turn off, go to Settings>General and scroll down. Uncheck the box for "Smart features."
There's other "Smart" add-ons as well, but that's the one that reads your content.
There's other "Smart" add-ons as well, but that's the one that reads your content.