Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.
Pinned
Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
· Mar 28
Updated NFL analytics staffer list!*
As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)
As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)
Sam Darnold didn't actually even have enough plays in Seattle's blowout win yesterday to qualify for the QBR leaderboard for the week. (He had an 82.4)
November 10, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Sam Darnold didn't actually even have enough plays in Seattle's blowout win yesterday to qualify for the QBR leaderboard for the week. (He had an 82.4)
The Titans didn't play in Week 10, but their chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick increased.
November 10, 2025 at 5:32 PM
The Titans didn't play in Week 10, but their chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick increased.
Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y) through yesterday's games.
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
November 10, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y) through yesterday's games.
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
Highest pass rush win rate at edge in Week 10 thus far. It pays to play against the Chargers (backup) tackles.
November 10, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Highest pass rush win rate at edge in Week 10 thus far. It pays to play against the Chargers (backup) tackles.
Broke out every NFL team into 9 playoff tiers -- from Super Bowl contenders to wait 'til next year's and everything in between!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
November 10, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Broke out every NFL team into 9 playoff tiers -- from Super Bowl contenders to wait 'til next year's and everything in between!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Kyle Shanahan failed the down 8 test ❌❌❌
(Ball don’t lie edition)
(Ball don’t lie edition)
November 9, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Kyle Shanahan failed the down 8 test ❌❌❌
(Ball don’t lie edition)
(Ball don’t lie edition)
Week 10 PRWR leaders through the Sunday early window
November 9, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Week 10 PRWR leaders through the Sunday early window
November 9, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Reposted by Seth Walder
Giants FG today was the first 19-yard FG of the year that was not on the final play before halftime.
Giants kicked a 19-yard field goal on a fourth-and-goal from the 1 and lost game.
November 9, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Giants FG today was the first 19-yard FG of the year that was not on the final play before halftime.
Reposted by Seth Walder
Just watched the Browns commit a game-ending offsides penalty
Huge No. 1 pick leverage today in East Rutherford.
Chance to earn top pick in draft, per FPI
Browns w/ win: 6%
Browns w/ loss: 27%
Jets w/ win: 8%
Jets w/ loss: 27%
Chance to earn top pick in draft, per FPI
Browns w/ win: 6%
Browns w/ loss: 27%
Jets w/ win: 8%
Jets w/ loss: 27%
November 9, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Just watched the Browns commit a game-ending offsides penalty
Kevin O’Connell passed the down 8 test ✅✅✅
November 9, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Kevin O’Connell passed the down 8 test ✅✅✅
Bears should go for 2 here.
November 9, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Bears should go for 2 here.
Reposted by Seth Walder
Lamar’s influence as a rushing threat always fun to see in the dots
November 9, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Lamar’s influence as a rushing threat always fun to see in the dots
myles price giveth, myles price taketh
November 9, 2025 at 8:04 PM
myles price giveth, myles price taketh
oh my god stingley
November 9, 2025 at 7:36 PM
oh my god stingley
I don't have an exact number on purposefully trying not to score on Patriots first down. My ~instinct~ is it's not worth it. Scoring from the 1 is less certain than it seems (don't forget about penalties!!) and the most important thing for WP is coming away from that possession with a TD.
November 9, 2025 at 7:20 PM
I don't have an exact number on purposefully trying not to score on Patriots first down. My ~instinct~ is it's not worth it. Scoring from the 1 is less certain than it seems (don't forget about penalties!!) and the most important thing for WP is coming away from that possession with a TD.
Model did not like Texans kick decision down 17
November 9, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Model did not like Texans kick decision down 17
Browns special teams playing the long game
a man in a suit is standing in front of a building and looking at the camera .
ALT: a man in a suit is standing in front of a building and looking at the camera .
media.tenor.com
November 9, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Browns special teams playing the long game
No one takes Emeka Egbuka, touchdown dots!
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
November 9, 2025 at 6:09 PM
No one takes Emeka Egbuka, touchdown dots!
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
Last-minute Week 10 prep! Notes, nuggets, fantasy and betting advice and predictions!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Ready for Week 10? We have NFL sleepers, QB questions, trends to watch and more
Will J.J. McCarthy work more outside the pocket? How will Sauce Gardner fare in his Colts debut? Upset brewing in Patriots-Bucs? Here's what to know for Week 10.
www.espn.com
November 9, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Last-minute Week 10 prep! Notes, nuggets, fantasy and betting advice and predictions!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
If both teams have timeouts but are letting the clock run out toward the end of the half, it means someone is making a mistake.
It's a zero-sum game*!
*(almost always)
It's a zero-sum game*!
*(almost always)
November 9, 2025 at 3:54 PM
If both teams have timeouts but are letting the clock run out toward the end of the half, it means someone is making a mistake.
It's a zero-sum game*!
*(almost always)
It's a zero-sum game*!
*(almost always)
Huge No. 1 pick leverage today in East Rutherford.
Chance to earn top pick in draft, per FPI
Browns w/ win: 6%
Browns w/ loss: 27%
Jets w/ win: 8%
Jets w/ loss: 27%
Chance to earn top pick in draft, per FPI
Browns w/ win: 6%
Browns w/ loss: 27%
Jets w/ win: 8%
Jets w/ loss: 27%
November 9, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Huge No. 1 pick leverage today in East Rutherford.
Chance to earn top pick in draft, per FPI
Browns w/ win: 6%
Browns w/ loss: 27%
Jets w/ win: 8%
Jets w/ loss: 27%
Chance to earn top pick in draft, per FPI
Browns w/ win: 6%
Browns w/ loss: 27%
Jets w/ win: 8%
Jets w/ loss: 27%
Underrated part of the Jets Sauce Gardner trade: acquiring AD Mitchell.
Mitchell ranked 8th among WRs in open score last year -- tied with Tyreek Hill and Zay Flowers. Exactly the kind of player a team like the Jets should be betting on.
Here's a sampling of some missed downfield Mitchell plays.
Mitchell ranked 8th among WRs in open score last year -- tied with Tyreek Hill and Zay Flowers. Exactly the kind of player a team like the Jets should be betting on.
Here's a sampling of some missed downfield Mitchell plays.
November 9, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Underrated part of the Jets Sauce Gardner trade: acquiring AD Mitchell.
Mitchell ranked 8th among WRs in open score last year -- tied with Tyreek Hill and Zay Flowers. Exactly the kind of player a team like the Jets should be betting on.
Here's a sampling of some missed downfield Mitchell plays.
Mitchell ranked 8th among WRs in open score last year -- tied with Tyreek Hill and Zay Flowers. Exactly the kind of player a team like the Jets should be betting on.
Here's a sampling of some missed downfield Mitchell plays.
Week 10 betting guide from Matt Bowen, @benjaminsolak.bsky.social and me! I'll add defensive props over the weekend when they become available.
Will I break my 7-week losing streak on receiving yard alts? Let's find out!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Will I break my 7-week losing streak on receiving yard alts? Let's find out!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
November 7, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Week 10 betting guide from Matt Bowen, @benjaminsolak.bsky.social and me! I'll add defensive props over the weekend when they become available.
Will I break my 7-week losing streak on receiving yard alts? Let's find out!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Will I break my 7-week losing streak on receiving yard alts? Let's find out!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...