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Seth Walder

@sethwalder.bsky.social

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ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · Mar 28

Updated NFL analytics staffer list!*

As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.

(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 8h

Expected YAC at the time of Kyle Monangai's reception on this play was a cool 21 yards.

(Actual YAC: 28.7)

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Reposted by Seth Walder

Bill Barnwell @billbarnwell.com · 8h

Commanders turning a fourth-and-2 conversion into a big gain and a touchdown is a pretty good runout for those who are into analytics

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 8h

With his performance so far tonight Bijan Robinson has moved into a tie for the league lead in rush yards over expectation with David Montgomery at +127, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

He is also the league leader among RBs in YAC over expectation (+129).

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 9h

Chicago has actually had a 4.2 or better xYPC in every game this season (and better than that in all but one game). Biggest problem with their running game has probably been the running backs themselves.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 9h

Bears are averaging 5.1 expected yards per carry tonight, per NFL Next Gen Stats, based on the positioning and movement of all 22 players at handoff.

That would be a season-high xYPC game for them and well above the 4.2 league average.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 9h

commanders calling timeout before the next play is ball don't lie for challenge decision

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 9h

for sure. and it's certainly higher than whatever that was!

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 9h

is the lowest leverage challenge of all time

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 9h

There were 36 seconds left when playclock started after final play of first quarter.

I always think in those spots, why not get a playcall in and line up and give the QB a choice? Like the look, run the play. Don't like it, end of quarter.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 10h

Jaquan Brisker picks off Jayden Daniels, dots!

(NFL Next Gen Stats)

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 15h

Welp, did all that and forgot to *actually* include Week 5's data. Previous charts were through Week 4. Here are the updated charts!!

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 15h

same on this!!

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 15h

Here's how that looks on average. And it's interesting, I think, how different he is compared to Dawkins.

I've included with a couple other team pairs for comparison.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 15h

In fact Brown has the largest difference in depth between run and pass plays of any tackle (through Week 5).

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 15h

With the Bills playing tonight, I've updated the tackle alignments (through Week 5) to look only at neutral-ish down and distances.

Filtering down to these plays, we still see a difference in Spencer Brown's alignment between run and pass plays.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 16h

if someone is going to give me draft capital for a washed 40-year-old QB I have already benched in a year when I am not contending it is actually *ideal* for that team to be within the division.

If I'm going to take someone's draft capital I'd like it to be my rival's.

Dub @20zz.bsky.social · 16h

The willingness to just ignore trading in your division to help another team is crazy

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 17h

Tomlin’s comments are wild both because of the rare outright criticism of an opposing executive but also because that trade was such a straight-forward W for the Browns

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 16h

agree I just wrote that up for the site in fact!

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 16h

he literally has a worse QBR this year than Jake Browning!!

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 17h

yeah that could be

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 17h

here's link to video from @bepryor.bsky.social of Tomlin's comment on the other site: x.com/bepryor/stat...

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 17h

Tomlin’s comments are wild both because of the rare outright criticism of an opposing executive but also because that trade was such a straight-forward W for the Browns

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 17h

FPI currently gives the Ravens a 25% chance to make the playoffs.

Betting market is much more optimistic: Ravens are -120/+100 to make/miss the playoffs at ESPN BET.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 17h

Sorry, not this one. This comes from NFL Next Gen Stats.

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

saw this and thought, I wonder if? And yep.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

We have clear go here