Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.
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Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
· Mar 28
Updated NFL analytics staffer list!*
As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)
As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)
Happy Thanksgiving!
I am thankful for Alim McNeill’s sack over at +800
I am thankful for Alim McNeill’s sack over at +800
November 27, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Happy Thanksgiving!
I am thankful for Alim McNeill’s sack over at +800
I am thankful for Alim McNeill’s sack over at +800
Really enjoyed talking game management with Adam Schein on his show.
We debated the controversial calls from last week's games, talked through how the ESPN model works and what went into its views on each of those decisions.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
We debated the controversial calls from last week's games, talked through how the ESPN model works and what went into its views on each of those decisions.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
November 26, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Really enjoyed talking game management with Adam Schein on his show.
We debated the controversial calls from last week's games, talked through how the ESPN model works and what went into its views on each of those decisions.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
We debated the controversial calls from last week's games, talked through how the ESPN model works and what went into its views on each of those decisions.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
Dave Canales failed the down 8 test ❌❌❌
November 25, 2025 at 3:16 AM
Dave Canales failed the down 8 test ❌❌❌
Reposted by Seth Walder
"Collecting that experience" is an incredible euphemism for "Asking a guy about the fact that more than a dozen women accused him of sexual misconduct"
November 24, 2025 at 8:59 PM
"Collecting that experience" is an incredible euphemism for "Asking a guy about the fact that more than a dozen women accused him of sexual misconduct"
Despite leading Week 12 in yards per attempt (10.4) thus far, Shedeur Sanders recorded the lowest QBR (8.7).
Why the discrepancy?
We took a look.
Why the discrepancy?
We took a look.
November 24, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Despite leading Week 12 in yards per attempt (10.4) thus far, Shedeur Sanders recorded the lowest QBR (8.7).
Why the discrepancy?
We took a look.
Why the discrepancy?
We took a look.
Updated draft pick forecast!
Four teams with a double-digit chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick.
Four teams with a double-digit chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick.
November 24, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Updated draft pick forecast!
Four teams with a double-digit chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick.
Four teams with a double-digit chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick.
Who will win the NFC North?
Bears still lead in the standings but remain less likely than the Packers or Lions.
Bears still lead in the standings but remain less likely than the Packers or Lions.
November 24, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Who will win the NFC North?
Bears still lead in the standings but remain less likely than the Packers or Lions.
Bears still lead in the standings but remain less likely than the Packers or Lions.
Updated playoff seeding forecast from FPI!
November 24, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Updated playoff seeding forecast from FPI!
One way to see Giants clearly made correct call: their win probability if they kicked would have been almost identical to going for it and failing.
WP Kick: 79.4%
WP Go-Fail: 79.2%
(WP Go-Convert: 98.4%)
WP Kick: 79.4%
WP Go-Fail: 79.2%
(WP Go-Convert: 98.4%)
Remember: kicking to go up 6 is a great way to give opponent better field position and lose by 1.
Our model strongly agreed with Giants decision.
Our model strongly agreed with Giants decision.
November 24, 2025 at 2:36 PM
One way to see Giants clearly made correct call: their win probability if they kicked would have been almost identical to going for it and failing.
WP Kick: 79.4%
WP Go-Fail: 79.2%
(WP Go-Convert: 98.4%)
WP Kick: 79.4%
WP Go-Fail: 79.2%
(WP Go-Convert: 98.4%)
QBRs today
Jameis Winston: 83.7
Jared Goff: 21.0
And yet!
Jameis Winston: 83.7
Jared Goff: 21.0
And yet!
November 24, 2025 at 1:52 AM
QBRs today
Jameis Winston: 83.7
Jared Goff: 21.0
And yet!
Jameis Winston: 83.7
Jared Goff: 21.0
And yet!
The correct call.
Theme of the day: don't kick to go up 6 unless you like losing by 1.
Theme of the day: don't kick to go up 6 unless you like losing by 1.
November 24, 2025 at 12:09 AM
The correct call.
Theme of the day: don't kick to go up 6 unless you like losing by 1.
Theme of the day: don't kick to go up 6 unless you like losing by 1.
just feels like a bad omen to send russ out there for the coin toss
November 23, 2025 at 9:13 PM
just feels like a bad omen to send russ out there for the coin toss
Reposted by Seth Walder
Don't kick the field goal to go up 6.
November 23, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Don't kick the field goal to go up 6.
That's a gross spike by the Lions.
There's 1:12 left in the game! The downs will finish you before the clock!
There's 1:12 left in the game! The downs will finish you before the clock!
November 23, 2025 at 9:04 PM
That's a gross spike by the Lions.
There's 1:12 left in the game! The downs will finish you before the clock!
There's 1:12 left in the game! The downs will finish you before the clock!
Remember: kicking to go up 6 is a great way to give opponent better field position and lose by 1.
Our model strongly agreed with Giants decision.
Our model strongly agreed with Giants decision.
November 23, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Remember: kicking to go up 6 is a great way to give opponent better field position and lose by 1.
Our model strongly agreed with Giants decision.
Our model strongly agreed with Giants decision.
Steelers should have gone for 2.
November 23, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Steelers should have gone for 2.
🚨JAMEIS WINSTON RECEIVING TOUCHDOWN DOTS🚨
November 23, 2025 at 8:28 PM
🚨JAMEIS WINSTON RECEIVING TOUCHDOWN DOTS🚨
Steelers fail to cover DJ Moore, touchdown. Dots!
November 23, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Steelers fail to cover DJ Moore, touchdown. Dots!
JSN is approximately 27x more deserving of OPOY relative to Jonathan Taylor
November 23, 2025 at 7:45 PM
JSN is approximately 27x more deserving of OPOY relative to Jonathan Taylor
bears and bears fans upset that their player holding the ball in bounds was tackled in american football
November 23, 2025 at 7:05 PM
bears and bears fans upset that their player holding the ball in bounds was tackled in american football
Geno Stone pick-six off Drake Maye, dots!
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
November 23, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Geno Stone pick-six off Drake Maye, dots!
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
So on 3rd-and-7 at the plus-44, the Jets decide to run into this? And then don't go for it on 4th-and-5?
November 23, 2025 at 6:22 PM
So on 3rd-and-7 at the plus-44, the Jets decide to run into this? And then don't go for it on 4th-and-5?
Bonus sack prop for one where the line has moved a ton in last few minutes:
Myles Garrett under 1.5 sacks (-125).
That's a pretty wild number. I don't actually produce an o/u 1.5 line but I do make Garrett under 1.75 sacks (-383)!
Myles Garrett under 1.5 sacks (-125).
That's a pretty wild number. I don't actually produce an o/u 1.5 line but I do make Garrett under 1.75 sacks (-383)!
November 23, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Bonus sack prop for one where the line has moved a ton in last few minutes:
Myles Garrett under 1.5 sacks (-125).
That's a pretty wild number. I don't actually produce an o/u 1.5 line but I do make Garrett under 1.75 sacks (-383)!
Myles Garrett under 1.5 sacks (-125).
That's a pretty wild number. I don't actually produce an o/u 1.5 line but I do make Garrett under 1.75 sacks (-383)!