Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.
Bengals defensive DVOA improved to 23.2% on Thursday, which would still be the fourth-worst ever since 1978 through 13 games and the worst since 1983.
How bad did the Ravens play to suck against THAT defense? Really bad.
How bad did the Ravens play to suck against THAT defense? Really bad.
November 29, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Bengals defensive DVOA improved to 23.2% on Thursday, which would still be the fourth-worst ever since 1978 through 13 games and the worst since 1983.
How bad did the Ravens play to suck against THAT defense? Really bad.
How bad did the Ravens play to suck against THAT defense? Really bad.
Ravens had -54.6% offensive DVOA after adjusting for Bengals defense. By far their worst offensive game of the year, much worse than the games without Lamar Jackson.
Their defense was average.
Their defense was average.
DVOA for Thur/Fri games
Bears: 52.0% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 3)
Bengals: 21.1% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 7)
Eagles: -43.4% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 6)
Ravens: -55.1% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 5)
Lions: 6.4%
Packers: 43.9%
Chiefs: -1.8%
Cowboys: 31.6%
Bears: 52.0% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 3)
Bengals: 21.1% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 7)
Eagles: -43.4% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 6)
Ravens: -55.1% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 5)
Lions: 6.4%
Packers: 43.9%
Chiefs: -1.8%
Cowboys: 31.6%
November 29, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Ravens had -54.6% offensive DVOA after adjusting for Bengals defense. By far their worst offensive game of the year, much worse than the games without Lamar Jackson.
Their defense was average.
Their defense was average.
DVOA for Thur/Fri games
Bears: 52.0% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 3)
Bengals: 21.1% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 7)
Eagles: -43.4% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 6)
Ravens: -55.1% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 5)
Lions: 6.4%
Packers: 43.9%
Chiefs: -1.8%
Cowboys: 31.6%
Bears: 52.0% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 3)
Bengals: 21.1% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 7)
Eagles: -43.4% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 6)
Ravens: -55.1% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 5)
Lions: 6.4%
Packers: 43.9%
Chiefs: -1.8%
Cowboys: 31.6%
November 29, 2025 at 4:54 PM
DVOA for Thur/Fri games
Bears: 52.0% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 3)
Bengals: 21.1% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 7)
Eagles: -43.4% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 6)
Ravens: -55.1% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 5)
Lions: 6.4%
Packers: 43.9%
Chiefs: -1.8%
Cowboys: 31.6%
Bears: 52.0% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 3)
Bengals: 21.1% (2nd-best game of the year after Wk 7)
Eagles: -43.4% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 6)
Ravens: -55.1% (2nd-worst game of the year after Wk 5)
Lions: 6.4%
Packers: 43.9%
Chiefs: -1.8%
Cowboys: 31.6%
DVOA Playoff Odds now updated with Friday's game. Bears up to 71% to make the playoffs.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
November 29, 2025 at 4:38 PM
DVOA Playoff Odds now updated with Friday's game. Bears up to 71% to make the playoffs.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
I was going to say that this was only Chicago's second win by more than one possession, but I forgot about the Saints win. So their third win by more than one possession. Cowboys, Saints, Eagles.
November 28, 2025 at 11:03 PM
I was going to say that this was only Chicago's second win by more than one possession, but I forgot about the Saints win. So their third win by more than one possession. Cowboys, Saints, Eagles.
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
Cowboys-Falcons in 2020 an example of a team failing on the two-pointer on their first TD, knowing they need an extra possession, getting the onside kick, and winning the game www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2bu...
Falcons vs. Cowboys Week 2 Highlights | NFL 2020
YouTube video by NFL
www.youtube.com
November 28, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Cowboys-Falcons in 2020 an example of a team failing on the two-pointer on their first TD, knowing they need an extra possession, getting the onside kick, and winning the game www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2bu...
Any decision that the announcers don't understand becomes "analytics" even if it has nothing whatsoever to do with analytics.
Despite what the crew told you this isn't even analytics!
For those with angry relatives like mine, the quick explainer:
They gotta for 2 at some pt
If they wait til the end of the game and fail, it’s automatically over.
They gotta for 2 at some pt
If they wait til the end of the game and fail, it’s automatically over.
November 28, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Any decision that the announcers don't understand becomes "analytics" even if it has nothing whatsoever to do with analytics.
Even if the Eagles score here, I don't think we would have any confidence that they could stop three Bears runs and get the ball back.
November 28, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Even if the Eagles score here, I don't think we would have any confidence that they could stop three Bears runs and get the ball back.
This was supposed to be the "get right" game for the Eagles and instead everything went wrong and everything looks worse than before.
November 28, 2025 at 10:42 PM
This was supposed to be the "get right" game for the Eagles and instead everything went wrong and everything looks worse than before.
Eagles were the No. 1 DVOA defense against tight ends. It's just all going wrong today.
November 28, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Eagles were the No. 1 DVOA defense against tight ends. It's just all going wrong today.
Obviously, if the Bears played more games like this and fewer games like when they beat Washington and Las Vegas by 25-24, I wouldn't be writing about them as the worst 8-3 team ever! This has been great today.
November 28, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Obviously, if the Bears played more games like this and fewer games like when they beat Washington and Las Vegas by 25-24, I wouldn't be writing about them as the worst 8-3 team ever! This has been great today.
The Bears' best three games of the year are Week 3 over the Cowboys (31-14) and then last week and this week.
November 28, 2025 at 10:22 PM
The Bears' best three games of the year are Week 3 over the Cowboys (31-14) and then last week and this week.
I forgot to mention this in the ESPN piece this week, but part of why the Bears have so many turnovers is that they have the fourth-highest fumble recovery rate. It's more than just the picks.
November 28, 2025 at 9:49 PM
I forgot to mention this in the ESPN piece this week, but part of why the Bears have so many turnovers is that they have the fourth-highest fumble recovery rate. It's more than just the picks.
And... there's the turnover that is the one bad thing the Eagles offense has mostly avoided.
November 28, 2025 at 9:46 PM
And... there's the turnover that is the one bad thing the Eagles offense has mostly avoided.
Fred Johnson may be a bit of an issue.
November 28, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Fred Johnson may be a bit of an issue.
This Apple commercial with the woodland animal puppets is a lot of fun.
November 28, 2025 at 9:44 PM
This Apple commercial with the woodland animal puppets is a lot of fun.
Nick Sirianni tells the reporter "we need to create some explosives on offense."
Dude, your success rate now is 24%. You need to start by improving the MUNDANE.
Dude, your success rate now is 24%. You need to start by improving the MUNDANE.
November 28, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Nick Sirianni tells the reporter "we need to create some explosives on offense."
Dude, your success rate now is 24%. You need to start by improving the MUNDANE.
Dude, your success rate now is 24%. You need to start by improving the MUNDANE.
The Eagles' offensive DVOA is higher than you expect because of opponent adjustments and a lack of turnovers.
This (so far) is probably the worst offensive game they've played all year. The downward trend is a bit of an issue.
This (so far) is probably the worst offensive game they've played all year. The downward trend is a bit of an issue.
November 28, 2025 at 9:28 PM
The Eagles' offensive DVOA is higher than you expect because of opponent adjustments and a lack of turnovers.
This (so far) is probably the worst offensive game they've played all year. The downward trend is a bit of an issue.
This (so far) is probably the worst offensive game they've played all year. The downward trend is a bit of an issue.
The Bears and Eagles are averaging the same yards per play, 5.1.
The Bears are sequencing plays *just* a little better and so they have 23 more of them.
The Bears are sequencing plays *just* a little better and so they have 23 more of them.
November 28, 2025 at 9:03 PM
The Bears and Eagles are averaging the same yards per play, 5.1.
The Bears are sequencing plays *just* a little better and so they have 23 more of them.
The Bears are sequencing plays *just* a little better and so they have 23 more of them.
Maybe don't throw to Goedert with their best cornerback covering him?
November 28, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Maybe don't throw to Goedert with their best cornerback covering him?
There's some of this but also the Eagles defense is just plain getting pushed around!
Ben Johnson is doing Ben Johnson things with movement and misdirection
November 28, 2025 at 8:53 PM
There's some of this but also the Eagles defense is just plain getting pushed around!
Eagles run defense DVOA (lower is better)
Weeks 1-8: -4.3%
Weeks 10-12: -32.4%
Week 13: Uh, guys, what's going on here?
Weeks 1-8: -4.3%
Weeks 10-12: -32.4%
Week 13: Uh, guys, what's going on here?
November 28, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Eagles run defense DVOA (lower is better)
Weeks 1-8: -4.3%
Weeks 10-12: -32.4%
Week 13: Uh, guys, what's going on here?
Weeks 1-8: -4.3%
Weeks 10-12: -32.4%
Week 13: Uh, guys, what's going on here?
In 26% of our sims today, both the Ravens and the Chiefs miss the playoffs.
In 11% of our sims today, the Ravens, Chiefs, and Lions all miss the playoffs.
(the first category includes the second)
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
In 11% of our sims today, the Ravens, Chiefs, and Lions all miss the playoffs.
(the first category includes the second)
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
November 28, 2025 at 8:37 PM
In 26% of our sims today, both the Ravens and the Chiefs miss the playoffs.
In 11% of our sims today, the Ravens, Chiefs, and Lions all miss the playoffs.
(the first category includes the second)
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
In 11% of our sims today, the Ravens, Chiefs, and Lions all miss the playoffs.
(the first category includes the second)
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
Amazon with the Waitresses! Good Christmas pull. Our favorite Christmas song in my WBRU days.
November 28, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Amazon with the Waitresses! Good Christmas pull. Our favorite Christmas song in my WBRU days.
Bears win today would drop Lions to 50%, almost assuredly as the 7 seed if they make it.
Now up 7-0!
Now up 7-0!
I've updated DVOA playoff odds through Thanksgiving!
Odds for the teams that played on the holiday:
GB 94%
DET 61%
KC 49%
DAL 18%
BAL 47%
CIN 7%
Bears win today: CHI 70%, PHI 93%
Eagles win today: CHI 40%, PHI 99.5%
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
Odds for the teams that played on the holiday:
GB 94%
DET 61%
KC 49%
DAL 18%
BAL 47%
CIN 7%
Bears win today: CHI 70%, PHI 93%
Eagles win today: CHI 40%, PHI 99.5%
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
November 28, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Bears win today would drop Lions to 50%, almost assuredly as the 7 seed if they make it.
Now up 7-0!
Now up 7-0!