Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.
Pinned
DVOA Explainer
An explanation of DVOA, DYAR, and Aaron Schatz's other advanced stats.
ftnfantasy.com
This is a pinned post for people new to my work.
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
There are a lot of teams that could really use a young quarterback and this class just does not have a lot of prospects worthy of the first round.
Post-Dante Moore staying mock draft, still trying to get a feel for the class but overall…might see a lot of trading back
January 14, 2026 at 9:00 PM
There are a lot of teams that could really use a young quarterback and this class just does not have a lot of prospects worthy of the first round.
This is a pinned post for people new to my work.
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
DVOA Explainer
An explanation of DVOA, DYAR, and Aaron Schatz's other advanced stats.
ftnfantasy.com
January 14, 2026 at 8:29 PM
This is a pinned post for people new to my work.
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
In case you missed this morning.
Once again I ranked all 32 rookie classes for ESPN. Unlike past years, playoff teams were not on top. Saints and Browns lead. Rams on the bottom. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
The best -- and worst -- rookie classes in the NFL: We ranked Year 1 impact for every team in 2025
How does every NFL team's rookie group stack up? Aaron Schatz ranked all 32 based on first-year production, starting with surprises up top.
www.espn.com
January 14, 2026 at 8:21 PM
In case you missed this morning.
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
FTN has partnered with Novig! 🥳
Use code FTN on your first purchase and get a free month of GOAT!
novig.onelink.me/JHQQ/shr50m6
Use code FTN on your first purchase and get a free month of GOAT!
novig.onelink.me/JHQQ/shr50m6
January 14, 2026 at 5:59 PM
FTN has partnered with Novig! 🥳
Use code FTN on your first purchase and get a free month of GOAT!
novig.onelink.me/JHQQ/shr50m6
Use code FTN on your first purchase and get a free month of GOAT!
novig.onelink.me/JHQQ/shr50m6
It's always good when if you question your metrics when they give you strange results.
You usually end up with some combination of "OK, I need to change X and Y" and "Well, this player actually is a bit underrated by the standard metrics."
You usually end up with some combination of "OK, I need to change X and Y" and "Well, this player actually is a bit underrated by the standard metrics."
Our all-encompassing player value stat has Broncos QB Bo Nix as the highest valued player in the NFL in 2025.
We investigated, and we found why our statistical system likes him so much
On a QB and also on how stats work ...
www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2026/01/14/w...
We investigated, and we found why our statistical system likes him so much
On a QB and also on how stats work ...
www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2026/01/14/w...
Why Does Our Player Value Stat Rank Bo Nix No. 1?
Nix doesn’t rate well across most statistical measures. So what’s going on here?
www.sportsinfosolutions.com
January 14, 2026 at 5:30 PM
It's always good when if you question your metrics when they give you strange results.
You usually end up with some combination of "OK, I need to change X and Y" and "Well, this player actually is a bit underrated by the standard metrics."
You usually end up with some combination of "OK, I need to change X and Y" and "Well, this player actually is a bit underrated by the standard metrics."
Show me your Fallout 76 CAMP.
January 14, 2026 at 3:39 PM
Show me your Fallout 76 CAMP.
Some remarkable stats as I prepare playoff previews from the @ftnfantasy.com StatsHub.
Bills defense in 2-high: -23.1% DVOA (2)
Bills defense in 1-high: 33.2% DVOA (29)
Bo Nix vs. 2-high: -6.8% DVOA (22)
Bo Nix vs. 1-high: 9.5% DVOA (13)
Bills defense in 2-high: -23.1% DVOA (2)
Bills defense in 1-high: 33.2% DVOA (29)
Bo Nix vs. 2-high: -6.8% DVOA (22)
Bo Nix vs. 1-high: 9.5% DVOA (13)
January 14, 2026 at 3:32 PM
Some remarkable stats as I prepare playoff previews from the @ftnfantasy.com StatsHub.
Bills defense in 2-high: -23.1% DVOA (2)
Bills defense in 1-high: 33.2% DVOA (29)
Bo Nix vs. 2-high: -6.8% DVOA (22)
Bo Nix vs. 1-high: 9.5% DVOA (13)
Bills defense in 2-high: -23.1% DVOA (2)
Bills defense in 1-high: 33.2% DVOA (29)
Bo Nix vs. 2-high: -6.8% DVOA (22)
Bo Nix vs. 1-high: 9.5% DVOA (13)
New from @brykno.bsky.social at @ftnfantasy.com: Where Harbaugh and Tomlin stand in NFL history and what their departures mean for the AFC North.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/harbaugh...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/harbaugh...
Harbaugh and Tomlin Moving On Means AFC North Changes
Bryan Knowles writes about the careers of John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, and where they stand in NFL history.
ftnfantasy.com
January 14, 2026 at 3:09 PM
New from @brykno.bsky.social at @ftnfantasy.com: Where Harbaugh and Tomlin stand in NFL history and what their departures mean for the AFC North.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/harbaugh...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/harbaugh...
Which team would have to win to close the hellmouth?
And, if we're correct that the Cubs winning the 2016 World Series opened the hellmouth that lead to our current national laughingstock/fascism-on-the-rise status, the only way to close the hellmouth is a Bills-Bears Super Bowl.
January 14, 2026 at 2:51 PM
Which team would have to win to close the hellmouth?
Honestly, Patriots-Bears would have some amazing storylines, like Maye and Williams being from the same draft, plus the 40th anniversary of SB XX. But only Patriots fans are rooting for it.
Don’t forget how the entire Nation is rooting for a return of the Patriots dynasty
!🙂
!🙂
January 14, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Honestly, Patriots-Bears would have some amazing storylines, like Maye and Williams being from the same draft, plus the 40th anniversary of SB XX. But only Patriots fans are rooting for it.
I've seen a lot of questions about what SB is the best storyline. To me it's clearly Bills-Bears.
Bills: Never won, best QB, haven't been there since 1993.
Bears: Ridiculous comebacks, huge fan base, 40th anniversary of only title.
Texans (no Houston team ever made it) would be great story also.
Bills: Never won, best QB, haven't been there since 1993.
Bears: Ridiculous comebacks, huge fan base, 40th anniversary of only title.
Texans (no Houston team ever made it) would be great story also.
January 14, 2026 at 2:39 PM
I've seen a lot of questions about what SB is the best storyline. To me it's clearly Bills-Bears.
Bills: Never won, best QB, haven't been there since 1993.
Bears: Ridiculous comebacks, huge fan base, 40th anniversary of only title.
Texans (no Houston team ever made it) would be great story also.
Bills: Never won, best QB, haven't been there since 1993.
Bears: Ridiculous comebacks, huge fan base, 40th anniversary of only title.
Texans (no Houston team ever made it) would be great story also.
If you follow my posts, you know I'm a connoisseur of bumper music and other pop songs used in NFL broadcasts.
Here's MNF using "Bandages" by Hot Hot Heat (!) as background music in 2003.
youtu.be/s4UyhIsoAlw?...
Here's MNF using "Bandages" by Hot Hot Heat (!) as background music in 2003.
youtu.be/s4UyhIsoAlw?...
2003 Week 1 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles - MNF
YouTube video by Jamie Johnson
youtu.be
January 14, 2026 at 2:10 PM
If you follow my posts, you know I'm a connoisseur of bumper music and other pop songs used in NFL broadcasts.
Here's MNF using "Bandages" by Hot Hot Heat (!) as background music in 2003.
youtu.be/s4UyhIsoAlw?...
Here's MNF using "Bandages" by Hot Hot Heat (!) as background music in 2003.
youtu.be/s4UyhIsoAlw?...
Once again I ranked all 32 rookie classes for ESPN. Unlike past years, playoff teams were not on top. Saints and Browns lead. Rams on the bottom. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
The best -- and worst -- rookie classes in the NFL: We ranked Year 1 impact for every team in 2025
How does every NFL team's rookie group stack up? Aaron Schatz ranked all 32 based on first-year production, starting with surprises up top.
www.espn.com
January 14, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Once again I ranked all 32 rookie classes for ESPN. Unlike past years, playoff teams were not on top. Saints and Browns lead. Rams on the bottom. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
The Texans had 6 games against teams in the top 10 for passing DVOA. These were the average stats:
19-31, 229 yards. 1.3 TD, 0.8 INT, 2.8 sacks
(This includes Mac Jones for SF and a surprisingly good Riley Leonard in Week 18.)
19-31, 229 yards. 1.3 TD, 0.8 INT, 2.8 sacks
(This includes Mac Jones for SF and a surprisingly good Riley Leonard in Week 18.)
January 13, 2026 at 9:17 PM
The Texans had 6 games against teams in the top 10 for passing DVOA. These were the average stats:
19-31, 229 yards. 1.3 TD, 0.8 INT, 2.8 sacks
(This includes Mac Jones for SF and a surprisingly good Riley Leonard in Week 18.)
19-31, 229 yards. 1.3 TD, 0.8 INT, 2.8 sacks
(This includes Mac Jones for SF and a surprisingly good Riley Leonard in Week 18.)
Young QB Scramble Alert:
The Bills allowed a league-worst 9.4 yards per scramble.
The Texans were second, allowing 9.2 yards per scramble.
The Bills allowed a league-worst 9.4 yards per scramble.
The Texans were second, allowing 9.2 yards per scramble.
January 13, 2026 at 9:10 PM
Young QB Scramble Alert:
The Bills allowed a league-worst 9.4 yards per scramble.
The Texans were second, allowing 9.2 yards per scramble.
The Bills allowed a league-worst 9.4 yards per scramble.
The Texans were second, allowing 9.2 yards per scramble.
The long, dark nightmare of @miketanier.bsky.social is over.
Breaking News
Eagles fire OC Kevin Patullo.
Eagles fire OC Kevin Patullo.
January 13, 2026 at 8:33 PM
The long, dark nightmare of @miketanier.bsky.social is over.
Here's a little playoff preview tidbit: the Broncos and Bills were the top 2 teams this year in DVOA against running backs as receivers.
January 13, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Here's a little playoff preview tidbit: the Broncos and Bills were the top 2 teams this year in DVOA against running backs as receivers.
New updated DVOA ratings including Monday Night Football, as the Texans move past the Patriots in weighted DVOA to sit atop the AFC.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
Week 19 DVOA Ratings: Texans Top AFC
We've updated DVOA with Monday Night Football, and the Texans pass New England as the top team in the AFC.
ftnfantasy.com
January 13, 2026 at 3:27 PM
New updated DVOA ratings including Monday Night Football, as the Texans move past the Patriots in weighted DVOA to sit atop the AFC.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
Quick Reads is now updated with MNF, free this week. Aaron Rodgers had the fifth-worst game of his career by DYAR, even after opponent adjustment. Christian Kirk was the top WR/TE this week.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/wild-car...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/wild-car...
Wild Card Quick Reads: Josh Allen is a Buffalo
Josh Allen leads our DYAR stats for the Wild Card Round, opposite a strong game for Jacksonville's Travis Etienne.
ftnfantasy.com
January 13, 2026 at 3:08 PM
Quick Reads is now updated with MNF, free this week. Aaron Rodgers had the fifth-worst game of his career by DYAR, even after opponent adjustment. Christian Kirk was the top WR/TE this week.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/wild-car...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/wild-car...
I just want to point out that the population of Greenland is one-tenth of the population of Wyoming, which is currently the least populated state.
That's like the 1,674th reason why this is all so stupid.
That's like the 1,674th reason why this is all so stupid.
Rep. Randy Fine on his bill to make Greenland the 51st state: "We need to make sure we assert our dominance over the Western Hemisphere ... the last thing we need is Greenland to become another Venezuela where we have huge problems we have to deal with in the future."
January 13, 2026 at 2:27 PM
I just want to point out that the population of Greenland is one-tenth of the population of Wyoming, which is currently the least populated state.
That's like the 1,674th reason why this is all so stupid.
That's like the 1,674th reason why this is all so stupid.
DVOA Playoff Odds are now updated. We have Buffalo much lower than the market... Are we underestimating the power of Josh Allen?
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
January 13, 2026 at 2:15 PM
DVOA Playoff Odds are now updated. We have Buffalo much lower than the market... Are we underestimating the power of Josh Allen?
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
If you wanted to see Drake Maye face a challenge, good news, it's coming next Sunday.
January 13, 2026 at 4:00 AM
If you wanted to see Drake Maye face a challenge, good news, it's coming next Sunday.
That may put us out of our misery.
January 13, 2026 at 3:43 AM
That may put us out of our misery.
Pittsburgh just converted a third down for the first time.
January 13, 2026 at 3:10 AM
Pittsburgh just converted a third down for the first time.
A couple of these turnovers have been Stroud trying to play hero ball when he could just swallow it and live to see another down.
January 13, 2026 at 3:03 AM
A couple of these turnovers have been Stroud trying to play hero ball when he could just swallow it and live to see another down.