Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
58K followers 200 following 4K posts
Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.
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aaronschatz.com
The Broncos currently have a sack rate of 13.7%. (That's actual sack rate, not my adjusted sack rate numbers.)

Highest sack rates since 1978 over a full season:
1984 Bears 14.2%
1978 Lions 13.6%
1989 Vikings 12.7%
aaronschatz.com
The four defenses of the AFC East in DVOA

Jets 25
Bills 26
Patriots 29
Dolphins 32
aaronschatz.com
NFL leaders in knockdowns including nullified plays.

Hutchinson DET 17
Bonitto DEN 16
Verse LAR 16
Young LAR 15
Allen DEN 13
Herbig PIT 13
aaronschatz.com
Foye Oluokun leads the NFL in both Defeats (16) and Pass Tackle Stops, i.e. tackles after unsuccessful receptions (13).

You can download all my individual defense stats from this page: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/historic...
DVOA Downloads
This is an archive allowing subscribers to download workbooks featuring past DVOA and DYAR stats going all the way back to 1978.
ftnfantasy.com
aaronschatz.com
DVOA playoff odds now updated, with the Kansas City Chiefs as our new AFC favorites.

Also, the Special Super Bowls list now includes several Colts-related matchups.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
aaronschatz.com
Patriots no longer qualify for this list after last night. Changes in Bills opponent adjustments and the Bears' strong running performance means the Pats are now 4th in passing but 32nd in rushing.
aaronschatz.com
More fun with the Patriots. Here's a table with all the teams since 1978 that have been a top 3 passing game but a bottom 3 running game through the first 6 games of the season.

The 2003 Titans were the only team to do this for a full season: 1st passing, 31st rushing. Steve McNair was co-MVP.
aaronschatz.com
I had to look and yes this does mention the long snapper.
aaronschatz.com
I assume this is "where do these teams rank right now" and the Bucs guys won't be back for a few weeks except for Evans.
aaronschatz.com
It's ridiculous to move a team down TWELVE spots in your power rankings unless their starting quarterback goes out for the season. No one game contains that much information.
realfrankbrank.bsky.social
also the bills are a below average team, obviously.
aaronschatz.com
This is what you get with power rankings based entirely on vibes.

The idea that the Bucs, given their injuries and record of playing close games, are the No. 1 team in the NFL right now is absurd, as much as I appreciate what Baker Mayfield has been doing.
theathletic.com
A lot can change in a week.

The Chiefs are up 10 spots, the Bills are down 12, and the Jets are… well, the Jets.

www.nytimes.com/athletic/671...
aaronschatz.com
I did not expect the Patriots to be in first place after Week 6.
aaronschatz.com
Illegal contact on nobody!
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
ethanhamm.bsky.social
Josh just looks tight out there. Him freaking out at Patriots players last week...vibes are off. Like the golden retriever went a little rabid.
aaronschatz.com
Falcons are desperately trying to give this game back to the Bills and the Bills offense is like, naw, we're good.
aaronschatz.com
I know the Bills defense has not played well tonight but wow has the offense not been doing its part.
aaronschatz.com
Very rare play in Bills-Falcons where DPI is drawn by someone other than the intended receiver.
aaronschatz.com
Actually, I guess if you blitz it doesn't mean the front four won their pass rushers, so maybe it is like that.
aaronschatz.com
Falcons only 23rd in ESPN pass rush win rate entering this game. It does not look like that.
aaronschatz.com
Just realized the Bills uniforms are inspired by the 1988 Fleer baseball set.