Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.
The Seahawks fell a little bit in DVOA despite this week's big win but they still rank as the No. 8 DVOA team ever measured through 9 games.
November 10, 2025 at 2:23 PM
The Seahawks fell a little bit in DVOA despite this week's big win but they still rank as the No. 8 DVOA team ever measured through 9 games.
Here's another table, this time the worst 7-2 teams by DVOA. The #Patriots are now seventh on this list.
A couple of these teams really turned it around in the second half of the season, and it's surprising how well these teams did in the postseason.
A couple of these teams really turned it around in the second half of the season, and it's surprising how well these teams did in the postseason.
November 4, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Here's another table, this time the worst 7-2 teams by DVOA. The #Patriots are now seventh on this list.
A couple of these teams really turned it around in the second half of the season, and it's surprising how well these teams did in the postseason.
A couple of these teams really turned it around in the second half of the season, and it's surprising how well these teams did in the postseason.
DVOA is now fully updated through Week 9 here: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Let's look at the top 3-5 teams of all time by DVOA. Houston Texans now fourth. A couple of these teams rebounded to make the playoffs.
Let's look at the top 3-5 teams of all time by DVOA. Houston Texans now fourth. A couple of these teams rebounded to make the playoffs.
November 4, 2025 at 3:02 PM
DVOA is now fully updated through Week 9 here: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Let's look at the top 3-5 teams of all time by DVOA. Houston Texans now fourth. A couple of these teams rebounded to make the playoffs.
Let's look at the top 3-5 teams of all time by DVOA. Houston Texans now fourth. A couple of these teams rebounded to make the playoffs.
OK, now the controversial one.
After last night's dominant victory, the Seahawks are now 4th in DVOA through 8 games since 1978.
Yes, this table also has the Colts from last week. They're now third, behind the Rams.
Will be writing tomorrow about Seahawks' gap between DVOA and EPA.
After last night's dominant victory, the Seahawks are now 4th in DVOA through 8 games since 1978.
Yes, this table also has the Colts from last week. They're now third, behind the Rams.
Will be writing tomorrow about Seahawks' gap between DVOA and EPA.
November 3, 2025 at 2:21 PM
OK, now the controversial one.
After last night's dominant victory, the Seahawks are now 4th in DVOA through 8 games since 1978.
Yes, this table also has the Colts from last week. They're now third, behind the Rams.
Will be writing tomorrow about Seahawks' gap between DVOA and EPA.
After last night's dominant victory, the Seahawks are now 4th in DVOA through 8 games since 1978.
Yes, this table also has the Colts from last week. They're now third, behind the Rams.
Will be writing tomorrow about Seahawks' gap between DVOA and EPA.
The Cincinnati Bengals now have the second-worst defense through 9 games by DVOA, since 1978. Only the 1979 49ers were worse.
Part of the issue: the Bengals have actually played one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses.
3 of the 4 worst defenses on this table were Bengals.
Part of the issue: the Bengals have actually played one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses.
3 of the 4 worst defenses on this table were Bengals.
November 3, 2025 at 1:41 PM
The Cincinnati Bengals now have the second-worst defense through 9 games by DVOA, since 1978. Only the 1979 49ers were worse.
Part of the issue: the Bengals have actually played one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses.
3 of the 4 worst defenses on this table were Bengals.
Part of the issue: the Bengals have actually played one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses.
3 of the 4 worst defenses on this table were Bengals.
Here's the very strange Washington week-to-week DVOA chart not including tonight... the system absolutely loves their three wins even after opponent adjustments but their five losses are definitely losses.
November 3, 2025 at 2:21 AM
Here's the very strange Washington week-to-week DVOA chart not including tonight... the system absolutely loves their three wins even after opponent adjustments but their five losses are definitely losses.
I realized I better get this up since we don't know the result for Sunday's game. Houston Texans and the best 3-4 teams by DVOA. Four of these teams made the playoffs (the ones that finished 10-6).
2017 Texans was the Deshaun Watson rookie injury collapse.
2017 Texans was the Deshaun Watson rookie injury collapse.
October 31, 2025 at 6:30 PM
I realized I better get this up since we don't know the result for Sunday's game. Houston Texans and the best 3-4 teams by DVOA. Four of these teams made the playoffs (the ones that finished 10-6).
2017 Texans was the Deshaun Watson rookie injury collapse.
2017 Texans was the Deshaun Watson rookie injury collapse.
The Colts now are the No. 4 offense in DVOA through 8 games.
October 27, 2025 at 7:21 PM
The Colts now are the No. 4 offense in DVOA through 8 games.
Here's the updated list of the top 5-2 teams by DVOA, featuring three different 2025 squads and two Super Bowl champions.
October 21, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Here's the updated list of the top 5-2 teams by DVOA, featuring three different 2025 squads and two Super Bowl champions.
Colts offense getting into rarified air at this point. Yes, the 1999 Washington offense was really that good.
October 20, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Colts offense getting into rarified air at this point. Yes, the 1999 Washington offense was really that good.
Bengals offensive line tonight.
October 17, 2025 at 12:33 AM
Bengals offensive line tonight.
More fun with the Patriots. Here's a table with all the teams since 1978 that have been a top 3 passing game but a bottom 3 running game through the first 6 games of the season.
The 2003 Titans were the only team to do this for a full season: 1st passing, 31st rushing. Steve McNair was co-MVP.
The 2003 Titans were the only team to do this for a full season: 1st passing, 31st rushing. Steve McNair was co-MVP.
October 13, 2025 at 7:23 PM
More fun with the Patriots. Here's a table with all the teams since 1978 that have been a top 3 passing game but a bottom 3 running game through the first 6 games of the season.
The 2003 Titans were the only team to do this for a full season: 1st passing, 31st rushing. Steve McNair was co-MVP.
The 2003 Titans were the only team to do this for a full season: 1st passing, 31st rushing. Steve McNair was co-MVP.
Seattle Seahawks are No. 1 in DVOA this week and are the second-best 4-2 team since 1978.
Rams and Lions also appear among the top 4-2 squads.
Rams and Lions also appear among the top 4-2 squads.
October 13, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Seattle Seahawks are No. 1 in DVOA this week and are the second-best 4-2 team since 1978.
Rams and Lions also appear among the top 4-2 squads.
Rams and Lions also appear among the top 4-2 squads.
With all the wild close games, we have a lot of these tables where current teams are very good or bad among teams with the same W-L record.
Chiefs are 5th among 2-3 teams since 1978, Texans 10th.
New DVOA commentary: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-5-d...
Chiefs are 5th among 2-3 teams since 1978, Texans 10th.
New DVOA commentary: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-5-d...
October 7, 2025 at 6:30 PM
With all the wild close games, we have a lot of these tables where current teams are very good or bad among teams with the same W-L record.
Chiefs are 5th among 2-3 teams since 1978, Texans 10th.
New DVOA commentary: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-5-d...
Chiefs are 5th among 2-3 teams since 1978, Texans 10th.
New DVOA commentary: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-5-d...
The Seattle Seahawks are still second in DVOA at 42.2% which is the second-highest figure ever for a 3-2 team.
October 7, 2025 at 3:12 PM
The Seattle Seahawks are still second in DVOA at 42.2% which is the second-highest figure ever for a 3-2 team.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have negative DVOA despite being 4-1. You can find all the DVOA numbers updated through Week 5 here: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
October 6, 2025 at 4:12 PM
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have negative DVOA despite being 4-1. You can find all the DVOA numbers updated through Week 5 here: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Here's a table with the weakest schedules including the Patriots and Bills, full-season schedule based on DVOA through Week 4.
NE has only 2 games against teams currently in the DVOA Top 12 (BUFx2).
BUF has only 2 games against teams currently in the DVOA Top 12 (KC, PHI).
NE has only 2 games against teams currently in the DVOA Top 12 (BUFx2).
BUF has only 2 games against teams currently in the DVOA Top 12 (KC, PHI).
October 3, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Here's a table with the weakest schedules including the Patriots and Bills, full-season schedule based on DVOA through Week 4.
NE has only 2 games against teams currently in the DVOA Top 12 (BUFx2).
BUF has only 2 games against teams currently in the DVOA Top 12 (KC, PHI).
NE has only 2 games against teams currently in the DVOA Top 12 (BUFx2).
BUF has only 2 games against teams currently in the DVOA Top 12 (KC, PHI).
ESPN had that fourth down as a toss-up.
September 30, 2025 at 12:12 AM
ESPN had that fourth down as a toss-up.
Here's a version of the table of worst pass defenses since 2000 only. That puts the Cowboys third.
September 29, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Here's a version of the table of worst pass defenses since 2000 only. That puts the Cowboys third.
Here's an update on a table from last night. The Cowboys and the worst pass defenses in DVOA history.
The 2023 Broncos significantly turned things around after the first few weeks, so the Cowboys do have hope.
DVOA now updated for Week 4: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
The 2023 Broncos significantly turned things around after the first few weeks, so the Cowboys do have hope.
DVOA now updated for Week 4: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
September 29, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Here's an update on a table from last night. The Cowboys and the worst pass defenses in DVOA history.
The 2023 Broncos significantly turned things around after the first few weeks, so the Cowboys do have hope.
DVOA now updated for Week 4: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
The 2023 Broncos significantly turned things around after the first few weeks, so the Cowboys do have hope.
DVOA now updated for Week 4: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...