Jarrett Seidler
@seidler.bsky.social
senior writer @baseballprospectus.com, longtime crank, social circle online circle friend of the show, here more now
woke player development Avengers assemble
It’s been really funny to see people crashing out over the first base coach as the Mets otherwise pay huge to give Mendoza the woke player development Avengers coaching staff
November 19, 2025 at 8:12 PM
woke player development Avengers assemble
the problem with trying to build a team through a series of individual hyperrational decisions is that you end up with a very efficient very average team
Mike Elias might be the most hyperrational executive in MLB history when it comes to pitching—for better and for worse. He’s been in charge of the Orioles for seven full years now and he’s never: 1) signed a pitcher to a guaranteed multi-year contract; or 2) drafted a pitcher with a top-50 pick.
November 19, 2025 at 5:59 PM
the problem with trying to build a team through a series of individual hyperrational decisions is that you end up with a very efficient very average team
Blake Burkhalter the first unprotect of the year I’ve come across that made me do a double take, feel like “former early round pick who looks good in stuff models and has decent upper minors performance and relief experience” is very much the type of guy who actually goes in R5???
November 19, 2025 at 12:20 AM
Blake Burkhalter the first unprotect of the year I’ve come across that made me do a double take, feel like “former early round pick who looks good in stuff models and has decent upper minors performance and relief experience” is very much the type of guy who actually goes in R5???
Pitchers I can understand weird accepts on, we don’t know the medicals, etc.
Woodruff and Imanaga too. Record?
November 18, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Pitchers I can understand weird accepts on, we don’t know the medicals, etc.
Everything other than some Boras client decisions and the Naylor contract presages an extreme bear market
November 18, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Everything other than some Boras client decisions and the Naylor contract presages an extreme bear market
I’m not a math guy but if a woman is 32 and you have been broken up with her for 10 years and were dating her for 4, and you’re 66, you started dating her at 51 or 52 while she was 17 or 18. I think that’s below half plus 7
half plus 7 really is just one of those things that works
November 18, 2025 at 2:19 PM
I’m not a math guy but if a woman is 32 and you have been broken up with her for 10 years and were dating her for 4, and you’re 66, you started dating her at 51 or 52 while she was 17 or 18. I think that’s below half plus 7
Nimmo being very available was one of those things where if you were paying attention you knew but people were dancing around reporting it for reasons
November 18, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Nimmo being very available was one of those things where if you were paying attention you knew but people were dancing around reporting it for reasons
There is literally no life circumstance under which I would reveal “this wasn’t the first time my partner cucked me with a presidential candidate”
A matryoshka doll of "the CIA could not waterboard this out of me"
oh my god you have to read this until the end www.telos.news/p/part-1-how...
November 18, 2025 at 1:25 AM
There is literally no life circumstance under which I would reveal “this wasn’t the first time my partner cucked me with a presidential candidate”
A 1 win regular is not worth $10m a year. A 1 win regular is a huge hindrance to putting together a good team
I feel like the dollar per war stuff is good for like the first three war but at a certain point it’s not the best because there’s a limited amount of players you can play at once so you want to get the most war possible from limited players even if it costs more
November 18, 2025 at 1:21 AM
A 1 win regular is not worth $10m a year. A 1 win regular is a huge hindrance to putting together a good team
OLIVIA WENT HIKING ON THE APPALACHIAN TRAIL?????
November 18, 2025 at 1:19 AM
OLIVIA WENT HIKING ON THE APPALACHIAN TRAIL?????
Related to all of this, we probably need to admit at some point that WAR is not remotely linear for the sake of team construction
It has baffled me for quite some time why baseball analysts are incapable of considering opportunity costs when analyzing long or large free agent deals. Teams simply don’t cut bait on players the second they rationally should in actuality for a variety of reasons
November 18, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Related to all of this, we probably need to admit at some point that WAR is not remotely linear for the sake of team construction
Reposted by Jarrett Seidler
I feel like I’ve missed a collective psychosis acting like Josh Naylor is a star instead of a bang average first baseman who had a good two months.
November 18, 2025 at 12:16 AM
I feel like I’ve missed a collective psychosis acting like Josh Naylor is a star instead of a bang average first baseman who had a good two months.
The only reason the Mets avoided playing Cano for 2-3 seasons too long was his suspension
Not for nothing, Robinson Cano was the opening day 2B for the 2022 Mets.
November 17, 2025 at 2:26 AM
The only reason the Mets avoided playing Cano for 2-3 seasons too long was his suspension
It has baffled me for quite some time why baseball analysts are incapable of considering opportunity costs when analyzing long or large free agent deals. Teams simply don’t cut bait on players the second they rationally should in actuality for a variety of reasons
November 17, 2025 at 2:21 AM
It has baffled me for quite some time why baseball analysts are incapable of considering opportunity costs when analyzing long or large free agent deals. Teams simply don’t cut bait on players the second they rationally should in actuality for a variety of reasons
did anyone on the planet think Alonso wasn’t beating Naylor’s contract an hour ago
I don’t disagree but Naylor
is 3 years younger
is 3 years younger
November 17, 2025 at 1:31 AM
did anyone on the planet think Alonso wasn’t beating Naylor’s contract an hour ago
Alonso is a way way way better player
Interested as to why you feel this, only because my initial thought was the opposite due to Naylor being 28 at the start of 2026 and Pete 31
November 17, 2025 at 1:25 AM
Alonso is a way way way better player
The other thing I considered tweeting was that if Naylor is getting 5 and this isn’t just a weird aberrational deal, Alonso is almost certainly gone
If that’s the case then you were a great met, Pete.
November 17, 2025 at 1:21 AM
The other thing I considered tweeting was that if Naylor is getting 5 and this isn’t just a weird aberrational deal, Alonso is almost certainly gone
well if Naylor is getting 5 then Alonso is probably right to expect 7
November 17, 2025 at 1:18 AM
well if Naylor is getting 5 then Alonso is probably right to expect 7
I promise I am not being contrarian, but I don’t think pointing out that his loss of velocity (and at least for a time effectiveness) is directly related to a severe injury really helps the case to blank check him
There's an argument that 2023 was a one-off freak injury and 2024 a hampered comeback season, with 2025 being a return to form (with two ticks off his fastball).
Also an argument that closers are worth more than their WAR (by WPA for instance). 5/100 still an overpay, but maybe not hugely so.
Also an argument that closers are worth more than their WAR (by WPA for instance). 5/100 still an overpay, but maybe not hugely so.
November 15, 2025 at 12:29 AM
I promise I am not being contrarian, but I don’t think pointing out that his loss of velocity (and at least for a time effectiveness) is directly related to a severe injury really helps the case to blank check him
we are gathered here to once again fight the Ticketmaster queue
November 14, 2025 at 2:54 PM
we are gathered here to once again fight the Ticketmaster queue
I would not even remotely consider signing either at their floated asks, which for Alonso is 7 years at north of $200m and for Diaz is 5 years at north of $100m. I think there are probably worlds where I would sign them. But if Toronto is going to hit a panic button because of WS G7 he should walk
Would you re-sign any of Pete and Edwin?
November 14, 2025 at 1:18 PM
I would not even remotely consider signing either at their floated asks, which for Alonso is 7 years at north of $200m and for Diaz is 5 years at north of $100m. I think there are probably worlds where I would sign them. But if Toronto is going to hit a panic button because of WS G7 he should walk
I’m not sure why this is controversial but smart teams are probably not giving a 32-year-old reliever who has already lost two ticks off his fastball and has a history of command meltdowns five years at a record AAV
November 14, 2025 at 1:07 PM
I’m not sure why this is controversial but smart teams are probably not giving a 32-year-old reliever who has already lost two ticks off his fastball and has a history of command meltdowns five years at a record AAV
half plus 7 really is just one of those things that works
November 13, 2025 at 10:03 PM
half plus 7 really is just one of those things that works
I can't believe there are two separate baseball thoughts from almost the exact same time correctly predicting this but as a joke. Bill James Offline did the same thing about comparative voting systems in the New Historical Abstract!
Sometimes you run across an old quote that stops you cold. From a Jayson Stark article in January 2000:
November 13, 2025 at 9:42 PM
I can't believe there are two separate baseball thoughts from almost the exact same time correctly predicting this but as a joke. Bill James Offline did the same thing about comparative voting systems in the New Historical Abstract!
the obsession with live "pro scouting" in the sense of the very specific art form that we all did in the mid-late-2010s is fascinating to me
November 13, 2025 at 9:01 PM
the obsession with live "pro scouting" in the sense of the very specific art form that we all did in the mid-late-2010s is fascinating to me