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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 12h

as far as I can tell this got incorrectly aggregated into "because of death threats from sports bettors" by one (1) non-sports writer on this site and then spread like wildfire with extremely strong takes because nobody actually clicks through to the stories anymore

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 12h

am I losing my mind or does the Athletic article with Shildt's quotes not actually say it was gambling-related death threats that he got. It says he got death threats (very bad!) with a separate clause promoting a past piece that death threats are up "in an age of pervasive sports gambling"

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 13h

guys you do not have to crash out because a disgruntled former coach you all hated went on a podcast and complained about a coaching structure which nearly every team in the league has

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 14h

we are free of stone age hitting instructions, folks

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 19h

I miss talking to my baseball buds in a snarky group forum

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

That has to be the first 8-6-2-2 grounded into a double play ever?

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Reposted by Jarrett Seidler

Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 1d

Prior to Franco there was Darin Ruf, left fielder, as well

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Reposted by Jarrett Seidler

James O'Hara @nextyeardc.com · 1d

Also the Phillies were not supposed to suck those years! The Four Aces cover was in 2012! He's one of the reasons why they did!

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

it's easy to say it was always written in the stars that Franco was going to bust but he was a pretty big prospect who played a position he absolutely shouldn't have been playing so the Phillies could continue to play Howard

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

man I sure remember not just seeing a lot of discourse but writing and podcasting about how Maikel Franco really needed to be playing first base and that continuing to play him as a third baseman was risking an overall bust

Tony Fioriglio @thetonyfioriglio.bsky.social · 1d

This is a weird analogy because the Phillies were straight booty for all five of those years and he wasn't blocking anyone from playing. At this point in his career and the in the Phillies competitive lifecycle, his value was far more about his contributions off the field than on it

Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

Ryan Howard, for example, played regularly when healthy for *FIVE YEARS* as a negative value player

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

you got it

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

I would love it if teams showed greater loyalty to players and there was less player movement of popular players. But loyalty is a two-way street. Is Alonso going to graciously step aside in a couple years for the next guy when he's no longer helping the team? Of course he's not.

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

based on *what*?

I love the guy too, I have baseball cards and pictures and jerseys and so forth. He hasn't won shit here, he's the face of an era of significant disappointment, and he hasn't been the most popular player on the team for a hot minute

Semmie @stevesem.bsky.social · 1d

There are certain players whose worth to a franchise is not measured by likely future statistical production. Pete Alonso is one of those Mets.

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

this is an exceedingly common decline age for good/not elite corner bats who peaked young. His median outcome is a gradual decline where he's still good for a few years and becomes unplayable in his mid-30s, but the left tail risks here are massive and start ~immediately

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

that is a very typical sign of aging within this general player archetype that you start making to trade some less important skills for your output to more important ones. We can see other signs of athletic decline like foot speed and agility around the bag on defense, too

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

he posted 31st percentile in-zone contact last year. He had above-average in-zone contact rates in three of the previous four years, and his previous career low was 37th percentile. He also got more aggressive both in and out of the zone. There was a very clear intent change to do damage last year

piquant nefesh @justinbfox.bsky.social · 1d

Possibly dumb q: his bat speed and bat on Ball markers are all very strong. Is that why? Because I don't think it would explain barrels but maybe I'm wrong?

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

yes, and he was younger, coming off a better season, and had a n-2 season that was better than anything Alonso has ever had

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

the -1.5 WAR he racked up was, quite literally, the difference between the Mets being eliminated in that year's Wild Card Series and having a bye through it

Matt @mr3402.bsky.social · 1d

Robinson Canó had actual plate appearances with the 2022 Mets, after all...

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

but, genuinely, when did we stop being able to actually analyze baseball and talk about whether any of this is a good idea?

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

I understand the Boras vise is now on again. The player will give vague comments about how the team needs to value him like the fans do. The local writers will froth up that they can't lose him. The "pro-labor" national writers will froth up that it's just money and Cohen needs to stop being cheap

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

Ryan Howard, for example, played regularly when healthy for *FIVE YEARS* as a negative value player

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

you can do "it's only money" and "better he have the money than the billionaire" until the cows come home, and you're wrong, because teams are never capable of figuring out in real time when players are completely cooked, and he will likely play for many years at negative value before being benched

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

six or seven years takes him into a period where he is more likely to be out of the league than a decent regular. His athletic markers are going and he already made the contact for intent trade that typically is a 1-3 year presage of steep decline of this player type.

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 1d

making this explicit and not something I said on our podcast: giving Pete Alonso "a Semien contract" would be, in my estimation, the single biggest mistake signing of the last several decades

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Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 2d

Justin Fields might be worse than Rick Mirer

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