Q McCallum
@qethanm.bsky.social
research: AI, risk, complexity, finance history
NEW BOOK: Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI
https://twinwolvesai.com/
newsletter: https://complex-machinery.com
(some posts in 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇷🇺)
NEW BOOK: Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI
https://twinwolvesai.com/
newsletter: https://complex-machinery.com
(some posts in 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇷🇺)
Pinned
Twin Wolves AI
Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI
TwinWolvesAI.com
It's here! I've just released my latest book, "Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI."
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
The terms "AI" and "genAI" carry double meanings:
On one side you have the underlying technology. On the other side you have the hype, vapor, and failed promises.
I'm bullish on AI-the-technology. We need a new term to separate that from the AI-as-vapor hype wave.
Thoughts?
#dataBS
On one side you have the underlying technology. On the other side you have the hype, vapor, and failed promises.
I'm bullish on AI-the-technology. We need a new term to separate that from the AI-as-vapor hype wave.
Thoughts?
#dataBS
November 19, 2025 at 4:12 PM
The terms "AI" and "genAI" carry double meanings:
On one side you have the underlying technology. On the other side you have the hype, vapor, and failed promises.
I'm bullish on AI-the-technology. We need a new term to separate that from the AI-as-vapor hype wave.
Thoughts?
#dataBS
On one side you have the underlying technology. On the other side you have the hype, vapor, and failed promises.
I'm bullish on AI-the-technology. We need a new term to separate that from the AI-as-vapor hype wave.
Thoughts?
#dataBS
Reposted by Q McCallum
Irony is dead, but we can still talk to its genAI chatbot doppelgänger.
(It keeps saying: "too big to fail"...)
(It keeps saying: "too big to fail"...)
No firm is immune if AI bubble bursts, Google CEO tells BBC reut.rs/43D5Zl4
No firm is immune if AI bubble bursts, Google CEO tells BBC
Alphabet Chief Executive Sundar Pichai said no company would be unscathed if the artificial intelligence boom collapses, as soaring valuations and heavy investment in the sector fuel concerns of a bubble.
reut.rs
November 18, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Irony is dead, but we can still talk to its genAI chatbot doppelgänger.
(It keeps saying: "too big to fail"...)
(It keeps saying: "too big to fail"...)
Reposted by Q McCallum
Extended one more day! Spread the word! www.jetbrains.com/pycharm/pro... The DSF could use this for great things!
Support the Django Software Foundation by buying PyCharm at a 30% Discount
During this campaign, buy PyCharm Pro with a 30% discount code and all money raised will go to the DSF’s general fundraising and Django Fellowship program
www.jetbrains.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Extended one more day! Spread the word! www.jetbrains.com/pycharm/pro... The DSF could use this for great things!
It's a rare thread that has me thinking about past, present, and future all at once.
(Unrelated: spending my entire career in emerging tech may have warped my world view ...)
(Unrelated: spending my entire career in emerging tech may have warped my world view ...)
A question, when did people realise that the dot com bubble had actually peaked?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
November 18, 2025 at 2:09 PM
It's a rare thread that has me thinking about past, present, and future all at once.
(Unrelated: spending my entire career in emerging tech may have warped my world view ...)
(Unrelated: spending my entire career in emerging tech may have warped my world view ...)
Reposted by Q McCallum
„you should get some coffee before you look at the news”. This does not sound good.
November 18, 2025 at 8:07 AM
„you should get some coffee before you look at the news”. This does not sound good.
Irony is dead, but we can still talk to its genAI chatbot doppelgänger.
(It keeps saying: "too big to fail"...)
(It keeps saying: "too big to fail"...)
No firm is immune if AI bubble bursts, Google CEO tells BBC reut.rs/43D5Zl4
No firm is immune if AI bubble bursts, Google CEO tells BBC
Alphabet Chief Executive Sundar Pichai said no company would be unscathed if the artificial intelligence boom collapses, as soaring valuations and heavy investment in the sector fuel concerns of a bubble.
reut.rs
November 18, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Irony is dead, but we can still talk to its genAI chatbot doppelgänger.
(It keeps saying: "too big to fail"...)
(It keeps saying: "too big to fail"...)
In today's Complex Machinery:
The meltdown of auto conglomerate First Brands Group serves as a warning about genAI companies.
Also:
- my new book!
- Diet Bullshit, depicted
newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/049-...
#dataBS
The meltdown of auto conglomerate First Brands Group serves as a warning about genAI companies.
Also:
- my new book!
- Diet Bullshit, depicted
newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/049-...
#dataBS
#049 - Looking for a grenade in a haystack
The meltdown of auto parts company First Brands may tell us about lurking problems in the genAI space.
newsletter.complex-machinery.com
November 18, 2025 at 12:42 PM
In today's Complex Machinery:
The meltdown of auto conglomerate First Brands Group serves as a warning about genAI companies.
Also:
- my new book!
- Diet Bullshit, depicted
newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/049-...
#dataBS
The meltdown of auto conglomerate First Brands Group serves as a warning about genAI companies.
Also:
- my new book!
- Diet Bullshit, depicted
newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/049-...
#dataBS
When the fortune bot drops solid tactical guidance
November 16, 2025 at 2:42 AM
When the fortune bot drops solid tactical guidance
Reposted by Q McCallum
I just posted my little intro to the Advent of Compiler Optimisation #AoCO that I announced yesterday. Check it out (and laugh at my terrible editing) at youtu.be/j-BwR-Cw0Gk?... @!4 if you want to watch the series, subscribe! :)
Intro to the Advent of Compiler Optimisations
YouTube video by Matt Godbolt
youtu.be
November 15, 2025 at 1:52 AM
I just posted my little intro to the Advent of Compiler Optimisation #AoCO that I announced yesterday. Check it out (and laugh at my terrible editing) at youtu.be/j-BwR-Cw0Gk?... @!4 if you want to watch the series, subscribe! :)
I'm not saying that "ask some key questions" will definitely uncover fraud.
But it seems that "ask some key questions, then ask again when you get a weak answer" is one hell of a start to uncovering fraud.
But it seems that "ask some key questions, then ask again when you get a weak answer" is one hell of a start to uncovering fraud.
Some burnt lenders have insisted that First Brands' collapse came without warning — Brian Friedman, president of longtime banker Jefferies, told investors that “fraud is conventionally not detectable in the real world”.
But others that dug deeper were able to avoid the fiasco.
on.ft.com/4hZboJ3
But others that dug deeper were able to avoid the fiasco.
on.ft.com/4hZboJ3
How Apollo, Soros and others spotted red flags at First Brands
[FREE TO READ] Small group of lenders avoided losses on car parts supplier’s collapse by refusing credit or cutting exposure
on.ft.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:58 PM
I'm not saying that "ask some key questions" will definitely uncover fraud.
But it seems that "ask some key questions, then ask again when you get a weak answer" is one hell of a start to uncovering fraud.
But it seems that "ask some key questions, then ask again when you get a weak answer" is one hell of a start to uncovering fraud.
Periodic reminder: The real "AI arms race" isn't huge companies competing to _build_ the best genAI model.
It's people _using_ AI to compete with one another.
That war amounts to a massive, wasteful stalemate.
Case in point: job applications.
(via @sarahoconnorft.ft.com @jburnmurdoch.ft.com)
It's people _using_ AI to compete with one another.
That war amounts to a massive, wasteful stalemate.
Case in point: job applications.
(via @sarahoconnorft.ft.com @jburnmurdoch.ft.com)
Is AI making job recruitment less meritocratic? We're getting some v interesting research studies on this question now, and the news is... not good. @jburnmurdoch.ft.com & I dive in, in the latest edition of our newsletter The AI Shift www.ft.com/content/e5b7...
November 14, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Periodic reminder: The real "AI arms race" isn't huge companies competing to _build_ the best genAI model.
It's people _using_ AI to compete with one another.
That war amounts to a massive, wasteful stalemate.
Case in point: job applications.
(via @sarahoconnorft.ft.com @jburnmurdoch.ft.com)
It's people _using_ AI to compete with one another.
That war amounts to a massive, wasteful stalemate.
Case in point: job applications.
(via @sarahoconnorft.ft.com @jburnmurdoch.ft.com)
Reposted by Q McCallum
This December, I'll be posting an article & video each day until Christmas in the Advent of Compiler Optimisations! #AoCO2025
Each day we'll explore a fun optimisation in C or C++; some low-level, x86 or ARM-specific, some high-level. Hope you'll join me!
YT: youtube.com/mattgodbolt
Blog: xania.org
Each day we'll explore a fun optimisation in C or C++; some low-level, x86 or ARM-specific, some high-level. Hope you'll join me!
YT: youtube.com/mattgodbolt
Blog: xania.org
Matt Godbolt’s blog
xania.org
November 13, 2025 at 7:51 PM
This December, I'll be posting an article & video each day until Christmas in the Advent of Compiler Optimisations! #AoCO2025
Each day we'll explore a fun optimisation in C or C++; some low-level, x86 or ARM-specific, some high-level. Hope you'll join me!
YT: youtube.com/mattgodbolt
Blog: xania.org
Each day we'll explore a fun optimisation in C or C++; some low-level, x86 or ARM-specific, some high-level. Hope you'll join me!
YT: youtube.com/mattgodbolt
Blog: xania.org
Reposted by Q McCallum
It's here! I've just released my latest book, "Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI."
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
Twin Wolves AI
Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI
TwinWolvesAI.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:45 PM
It's here! I've just released my latest book, "Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI."
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
Reposted by Q McCallum
For the cover of Businessweek’s December issue, I wrote about the reigning queen of America’s strip malls: Ulta Beauty, the country’s biggest beauty retailer (yes, bigger than Sephora) and quietly one of the more fascinating retailers in the country. Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
How Beauty Behemoth Ulta Conquered the American Strip Mall
The retailer built an $11 billion business by acting more like Home Depot than like Sephora.
www.bloomberg.com
November 11, 2025 at 3:11 PM
For the cover of Businessweek’s December issue, I wrote about the reigning queen of America’s strip malls: Ulta Beauty, the country’s biggest beauty retailer (yes, bigger than Sephora) and quietly one of the more fascinating retailers in the country. Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Today's #GFC read:
"Corporate Governance and Banks: What Have We Learned from the Financial Crisis" (2011)
www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...
"Corporate Governance and Banks: What Have We Learned from the Financial Crisis" (2011)
www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...
Corporate Governance and Banks: What Have We Learned from the Financial Crisis? - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
www.newyorkfed.org
November 11, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Today's #GFC read:
"Corporate Governance and Banks: What Have We Learned from the Financial Crisis" (2011)
www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...
"Corporate Governance and Banks: What Have We Learned from the Financial Crisis" (2011)
www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...
People say that the current state of genAI echoes 2001 (Dot-Com).
I see that, but I see even stronger parallels to 2008 (GFC).
In particular, it feels like the genAI space is aiming for "too big to fail" status.
Might be a good time to review some GFC-related reads ...
I see that, but I see even stronger parallels to 2008 (GFC).
In particular, it feels like the genAI space is aiming for "too big to fail" status.
Might be a good time to review some GFC-related reads ...
November 11, 2025 at 1:35 PM
People say that the current state of genAI echoes 2001 (Dot-Com).
I see that, but I see even stronger parallels to 2008 (GFC).
In particular, it feels like the genAI space is aiming for "too big to fail" status.
Might be a good time to review some GFC-related reads ...
I see that, but I see even stronger parallels to 2008 (GFC).
In particular, it feels like the genAI space is aiming for "too big to fail" status.
Might be a good time to review some GFC-related reads ...
Reposted by Q McCallum
Prediction:
a new Michael Burry is going to get minted in the next two years and he or she will make the bag shorting data center financing
a new Michael Burry is going to get minted in the next two years and he or she will make the bag shorting data center financing
November 10, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Prediction:
a new Michael Burry is going to get minted in the next two years and he or she will make the bag shorting data center financing
a new Michael Burry is going to get minted in the next two years and he or she will make the bag shorting data center financing
Reposted by Q McCallum
Two of the world’s biggest data center developers have projects in Nvidia's hometown that may sit empty for years because the local utility isn’t ready to supply electricity.
We called the developers and utility in question to find out why: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
We called the developers and utility in question to find out why: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Data Centers in Nvidia’s Hometown Stand Empty Awaiting Power
The fate of two facilities in Santa Clara, California, highlights a major challenge for the US tech sector and indeed the wider economy.
www.bloomberg.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Two of the world’s biggest data center developers have projects in Nvidia's hometown that may sit empty for years because the local utility isn’t ready to supply electricity.
We called the developers and utility in question to find out why: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
We called the developers and utility in question to find out why: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Q McCallum
okay, seriously: if we were to corral this, would anyone be interested in contributing? Here is the google form:
forms.gle/m2V4j4cDvwNu...
forms.gle/m2V4j4cDvwNu...
November 10, 2025 at 5:18 PM
okay, seriously: if we were to corral this, would anyone be interested in contributing? Here is the google form:
forms.gle/m2V4j4cDvwNu...
forms.gle/m2V4j4cDvwNu...
I'll add "complex systems," "network analysis," and "any kind of mathematical modeling" (especially time series analysis) to the list.
Come for the numbers. Stay for the mental models that will apply to _so_ many situations in life.
Come for the numbers. Stay for the mental models that will apply to _so_ many situations in life.
I tell every business reporting student to take operations management for their elective because you learn stuff like this and then see it everywhere
November 9, 2025 at 10:51 PM
I'll add "complex systems," "network analysis," and "any kind of mathematical modeling" (especially time series analysis) to the list.
Come for the numbers. Stay for the mental models that will apply to _so_ many situations in life.
Come for the numbers. Stay for the mental models that will apply to _so_ many situations in life.
It's here! I've just released my latest book, "Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI."
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
Twin Wolves AI
Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI
TwinWolvesAI.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:45 PM
It's here! I've just released my latest book, "Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI."
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
Periodic reminder that papers can "suggest" a lot of things
and that a suggestion can very well be bullshit
and that a suggestion can very well be bullshit
A new paper suggests a photo can tell a recruiter much about an applicant’s personality
Should facial analysis help determine whom companies hire?
A new paper suggests a photo can tell a recruiter much about an applicant’s personality
econ.st
November 7, 2025 at 5:55 AM
Periodic reminder that papers can "suggest" a lot of things
and that a suggestion can very well be bullshit
and that a suggestion can very well be bullshit
Reposted by Q McCallum
We sort of forgot we had a REVSYS newsletter, I just revived it! buttondown.com/revsys/arch...
November 6, 2025 at 1:01 AM
We sort of forgot we had a REVSYS newsletter, I just revived it! buttondown.com/revsys/arch...
Reposted by Q McCallum
Via @bloomberg.com’s @shiringhaffary.bsky.social, who I bet had a lot of fun writing this top
November 5, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Via @bloomberg.com’s @shiringhaffary.bsky.social, who I bet had a lot of fun writing this top