Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 5h

For anyone who thinks that customer loyalty isn't a Big Deal, (maybe you're focused on small discounts from your local supermarket) I invite you to look into the major airlines' programs.

Some airlines make more money on loyalty than they make from, y'know, flying people around ...

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 5h

Interesting look at the premium credit card space.

It's a special flavor of the self-reinforcing feedback loop of loyalty programs, with a splash of signaling mechanisms on both sides.

Net result: stronger relationships --> stronger revenue.

Excerpt from the linked article. The highlighted section reads:

>> [...] credit card companies are also doubling down on the wealthy, who use credit cards for more of their transactions than any other group and who have made premium cards the fastest-growing sector of the card industry. What issuers don't make in interest from these households, which tend to pay their bills on time, they earn in transaction fees from the sheer immensity of their spending.

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 6h

Indeed. And "who's paying for usage" is closely related to "how those payers expect to derive ROI."

A business that can draw a clear connection between token usage and revenue is not the same as a VC-funded company throwing cash at genAI and hoping it works out.

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 7h

A steep rise in token counts _might_ be a sign that companies are desperate, scrambling to find suitable use cases.

It might also indicate something else.

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 7h

Token counts are more of a proxy variable here. One that may mislead.

If you're concerned about a genAI bubble, look at use cases.

Specifically:

- keep an eye on the distance between genAI's stated capabilities vs what it actually delivers.

- note waste and missed opportunities

The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 8h

It’s hard to predict how the AI bubble will play out, but here’s a clue. Keep an eye on usage of AI, measured in units known as “tokens.” It’s soaring.

AI Economics Are Brutal. Demand Is the Variable to Watch.

It’s hard to predict how the artificial-intelligence bubble will play out, but here’s a clue. Keep an eye on usage of AI, measured in units known as ‘tokens.’ It’s soaring.

on.wsj.com

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 1d

Just wait till they use "min" and "minus"

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 1d

Well in that case:

"The NameNode won't start."

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

2008: Bill Tancer's book "Click" shows how people type the unvarnished truth into search engines because they (wrongfully) assume that only the machines will see their queries.

2012'ish: people realize that every they type online gets logged and analyzed.

2025:

performative male @milesklee.bsky.social · 3d

If the Palisades Fire suspect goes to trial, he’ll be one of the first people in the U.S. to have his ChatGPT history used against him in a criminal prosecution. I spoke to tech and legal experts about the future of digital evidence:

What You Tell an AI Chatbot Could One Day Be Evidence in a Criminal Trial

User exchanges with ChatGPT and other AI tools are a valuable new form of evidence for law enforcement in criminal investigations and prosecutions.

www.rollingstone.com

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Alan Au @alanau.bsky.social · 2d

It's a temporary fix.

🏰meg⚔️ @Birthright Audiobook! @impavid.us · 5d

In honor of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand

I'll go first: Six page commercial lease.

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

Save this one for future use

Tom Scott with the caption "That was a problem for future me, and now l am future me."

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

Funny how companies looked at the "our entire dev team is inexperienced, entry-level talent" situation

and decided the fix was to ... get a cheaper, worse version of the inexperienced, entry-level talent

(Also: so happy to see this practice has moved to DS/ML/AI. Joy.)

Randy Au @randyau.com · 2d

Lol on LinkedIn I saw a 100% serious, completely not ironic job posting for a part time data scientist... The job is to clean up and fix ai coded machine learning

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

In honour of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand.

"This time, it's different."

Headlines from various news outlets (Futurism, Bloomberg, CNN, The Economist) about outsized AI valuations and the growing concerns of a bubble.

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

"They removed the outliers"

#dataBS

Marjorie James Keenan @unenthusiast.com · 2d

In honour of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand.

rm -rf ~/

hammancheez @hammancheez.bsky.social · 2d

"The chancellor approved it"

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

Related: I highly recommend Tancer's book.

It may seem quaint by today's standards, but it was eye-opening in 2008.

And now that genAI chatbots pretend to be the new search engines ...

www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/bill-...

Click

What time of year do teenage girls search for prom dresses online? How does the quick adoption of technology affect business success (and how is that related...

www.hachettebookgroup.com

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

2008: Bill Tancer's book "Click" shows how people type the unvarnished truth into search engines because they (wrongfully) assume that only the machines will see their queries.

2012'ish: people realize that every they type online gets logged and analyzed.

2025:

performative male @milesklee.bsky.social · 3d

If the Palisades Fire suspect goes to trial, he’ll be one of the first people in the U.S. to have his ChatGPT history used against him in a criminal prosecution. I spoke to tech and legal experts about the future of digital evidence:

What You Tell an AI Chatbot Could One Day Be Evidence in a Criminal Trial

User exchanges with ChatGPT and other AI tools are a valuable new form of evidence for law enforcement in criminal investigations and prosecutions.

www.rollingstone.com

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Data Behind the Scenes Conference @databsconf.com · 3d

Highlighting #DataBS Conf talks:

How can data tell you when a customer will cancel their service? Are you taking the hard route in figuring this out? And what does this have to do with butter?

In other words ... Matthew Brandt talks about churn prediction:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9DB...

DataBS 2025 - 02 - Matthew Brandt -Churn Prediction: We thought it was hard but it was easy

YouTube video by Data Behind the Scenes

www.youtube.com

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 3d

Interesting read, for the look into business models and processes.

And if you squint just right, there are some subtle notes on connectedness, complexity, and risk:

Jim Waterson @jim.londoncentric.media · 3d

You might have heard of 'dark kitchens' when a row of sheds in a car park churn out food for Deliveroo. They're unpopular and low margin. So the next big thing in London food is 'host kitchens' where local pubs, restaurants and kebab shops cook for big brands. www.londoncentric.media/p/host-kitch...

Why your next upmarket Deliveroo might be made by your local kebab shop

"On one hand, it’s a lifeline... But on the other hand, it’s a harbinger of doom.”

www.londoncentric.media

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 4d

The tl;dr version:

Did your company approach AI with a mindset of risk-taking and risk management? Good.

You've done your homework, traced the connections, and prepared for a variety of outcomes.

That's the best you can do to prepare for the question mark we call the future.

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 4d

Given recent headlines, people keep asking me whether AI is in a bubble and whether that bubble is about to collapse.

I wrote about this last month in my newsletter.

(Second segment, "The road ahead")

newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/044-...

Excerpt from Complex Machinery 044:
>> People keep asking me whether this is a sign that genAI is about to collapse.
>>
>> My answer is a two-parter:
1/ Who knows? Maybe AI flatlines... Maybe it does its Bitcoin impression, taking a brief dip before hitting record highs… Maybe something else. It's the future! It's up for grabs.
>>
>> 2/ Why would you care? If you've done your homework, the twists and turns of the genAI hype wave won't matter to you all that much.

Excerpt from Complex Machinery 044:

>> It helps to zoom out and take the measured, dispassionate approach of an investor:
>>
>> Whether you've invested in AI directly (by purchasing shares of genAI providers' stock) or indirectly (by building your products on top of those providers or using such tools) you've chosen to take on exposure to AI. That is, you've accepted the investment's inherent risk/reward tradeoff – "I get my money back in spades," "I get nothing back," "I get a little money back." As a friend likes to remind me: Buy the ticket, ride the ride.

Excerpt from Complex Machinery 044:

>> Now, whether you've _acknowledged_ your risk/reward tradeoff is another matter. If you first performed a risk assessment to get an idea of the possible ups and downs, and then worked out how various possible outcomes might impact you, you're not afraid. You may not be happy with how things go, but you went in with eyes wide open. You can sit back and watch it all happen, because you did your homework.
>>
>> If you _didn't_ do your homework, your emotional state is tied to every AI-related headline.

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Fortune Ex Machina @fortuneexmachina.com · 4d

fortuneexmachina.com/fortunes/f48...

AI-generated fortune:

>> Congratulations, as you have been promoted to a new level of
success.

- Fortune Ex Machina

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Paul McNamara @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social · 5d

„Why do they call them corrections on the way down if they don’t call them mistakes on the way up?”. Almost literally everyone is calling this one a mistake on the way up.

The Guardian @theguardian.com · 6d

Bank of England warns of growing risk that AI bubble could burst

Possibility of ‘sharp market correction has increased’, says Bank’s financial policy committee * Business live – latest updates The Bank of England has warned there is a growing risk of a “sudden correction” in global markets as it raised concerns about soaring valuations of leading AI tech companies. Policymakers said there were also threats of a “sharp repricing of US dollar assets” if the Federal Reserve lost credibility in the eyes of global investors. It comes as Donald Trump’s continues to attack the US central bank and threaten its independence. Continue reading...

www.theguardian.com

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 6d

Increasingly uncomfortable with that whole "comedy holds a mirror to society" thing...

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 6d

In the latest Complex Machinery:

Reports claim that AI has reached "bubble" status ... right as the field is taking on more debt. And _someone_ says it's cool because this would be the _good_ kind of bubble.

newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/046-...

#dataBS #aisky

#046 - It's a long way down

genAI keeps digging a hole. Will it be able to climb out?

newsletter.complex-machinery.com

Reposted by Q McCallum

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 7d

NVIDIA and OpenAi:

Concerns that their “increasingly complex and interconnected web of business transactions is artificially propping up the trillion-dollar AI boom.“

@bloomberg.com $NVDA 👀
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Barry Ritholtz @ritholtz.bsky.social · 6d

Amazon is having a big sale on How NOT to Invest!
It's $21.19 -- 36% off -- with free overnight delivery.

Grab a copy now, and give some away as gifts!

www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/...

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