Pinebrook
@pinebrookcap.bsky.social
Maybe it's different this time.
Good luck on Fed Vortex Hell Trading Day.
Good luck on Fed Vortex Hell Trading Day.
October 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Maybe it's different this time.
Good luck on Fed Vortex Hell Trading Day.
Good luck on Fed Vortex Hell Trading Day.
The odds of this gold correction being over don't look good to me.
Finally, over the past decade gold basically hugs and reverts back to the 50dma. We have a few hundred points to go.
Finally, over the past decade gold basically hugs and reverts back to the 50dma. We have a few hundred points to go.
October 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The odds of this gold correction being over don't look good to me.
Finally, over the past decade gold basically hugs and reverts back to the 50dma. We have a few hundred points to go.
Finally, over the past decade gold basically hugs and reverts back to the 50dma. We have a few hundred points to go.
Average peak to trough was 5-months.
Remove the 17-month tail and that number shrinks to 3-months.
Remove the 17-month tail and that number shrinks to 3-months.
October 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Average peak to trough was 5-months.
Remove the 17-month tail and that number shrinks to 3-months.
Remove the 17-month tail and that number shrinks to 3-months.
Here is a table that shows the top 11 peak to troughs since this secular bull started in 2006.
October 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Here is a table that shows the top 11 peak to troughs since this secular bull started in 2006.
Reposted by Pinebrook
From behind the paywall.
August 18, 2025 at 1:34 PM
From behind the paywall.
Why do you say that? Earnings and margins are the best real time productivity indicator and they are on fire.
August 18, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Why do you say that? Earnings and margins are the best real time productivity indicator and they are on fire.
Dm me and I will comp you a sub.
August 18, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Dm me and I will comp you a sub.
Maybe this will persist due to regime change.
Maybe they get more stretched and stay there.
But the money tree roulette table doesn’t always work in one direction unless the game has changed.
Maybe it has. But so far it’s just politicians talking.
/FIN
Maybe they get more stretched and stay there.
But the money tree roulette table doesn’t always work in one direction unless the game has changed.
Maybe it has. But so far it’s just politicians talking.
/FIN
March 18, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Maybe this will persist due to regime change.
Maybe they get more stretched and stay there.
But the money tree roulette table doesn’t always work in one direction unless the game has changed.
Maybe it has. But so far it’s just politicians talking.
/FIN
Maybe they get more stretched and stay there.
But the money tree roulette table doesn’t always work in one direction unless the game has changed.
Maybe it has. But so far it’s just politicians talking.
/FIN
Now. Here is the crazy thing. These things are looking stretched.
China and Europe are at negative 2 standard deviations compared to short USA.
Japan over 1-sigma. And EMM is approaching 1-sigma.
China and Europe are at negative 2 standard deviations compared to short USA.
Japan over 1-sigma. And EMM is approaching 1-sigma.
March 18, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Now. Here is the crazy thing. These things are looking stretched.
China and Europe are at negative 2 standard deviations compared to short USA.
Japan over 1-sigma. And EMM is approaching 1-sigma.
China and Europe are at negative 2 standard deviations compared to short USA.
Japan over 1-sigma. And EMM is approaching 1-sigma.
This is how are those pairs are doing today on a price basis, not inclusive of borrow costs or dividends.
March 18, 2025 at 4:45 PM
This is how are those pairs are doing today on a price basis, not inclusive of borrow costs or dividends.
This exercise was repeated a few days later with Europe and Japan (IEUR EWJ DXJ).
March 18, 2025 at 4:45 PM
This exercise was repeated a few days later with Europe and Japan (IEUR EWJ DXJ).
I think the key insight was in contextualizing the outperformance vs the foreign selloff of Q4 2024, using a 100d rolling average, with the following conclusion.
March 18, 2025 at 4:45 PM
I think the key insight was in contextualizing the outperformance vs the foreign selloff of Q4 2024, using a 100d rolling average, with the following conclusion.