Pinebrook
@pinebrookcap.bsky.social
The odds of this gold correction being over don't look good to me.
Finally, over the past decade gold basically hugs and reverts back to the 50dma. We have a few hundred points to go.
Finally, over the past decade gold basically hugs and reverts back to the 50dma. We have a few hundred points to go.
October 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The odds of this gold correction being over don't look good to me.
Finally, over the past decade gold basically hugs and reverts back to the 50dma. We have a few hundred points to go.
Finally, over the past decade gold basically hugs and reverts back to the 50dma. We have a few hundred points to go.
Here is a table that shows the top 11 peak to troughs since this secular bull started in 2006.
October 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Here is a table that shows the top 11 peak to troughs since this secular bull started in 2006.
Gold caught an overnight bid. Hearing some people are dipping in. Dovish Fed, blah blah.
Here's a chart with price action from the last 10-days.
Classic lower highs, weakening bounce.
Whatever. It's a chart.
Here's a chart with price action from the last 10-days.
Classic lower highs, weakening bounce.
Whatever. It's a chart.
October 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Gold caught an overnight bid. Hearing some people are dipping in. Dovish Fed, blah blah.
Here's a chart with price action from the last 10-days.
Classic lower highs, weakening bounce.
Whatever. It's a chart.
Here's a chart with price action from the last 10-days.
Classic lower highs, weakening bounce.
Whatever. It's a chart.
Thank you to my subscribers and followers who’ve shown nothing but positive feedback and support.
Made Substack’s “Top 20 rising in finance”.
Made Substack’s “Top 20 rising in finance”.
October 22, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Thank you to my subscribers and followers who’ve shown nothing but positive feedback and support.
Made Substack’s “Top 20 rising in finance”.
Made Substack’s “Top 20 rising in finance”.
From behind the paywall.
August 18, 2025 at 1:34 PM
From behind the paywall.
This was my view back on May 11th and still my view now.
The narrow window for a cut was in June.
Oh see that 6500? 😂
The narrow window for a cut was in June.
Oh see that 6500? 😂
August 14, 2025 at 1:26 PM
This was my view back on May 11th and still my view now.
The narrow window for a cut was in June.
Oh see that 6500? 😂
The narrow window for a cut was in June.
Oh see that 6500? 😂
Now. Here is the crazy thing. These things are looking stretched.
China and Europe are at negative 2 standard deviations compared to short USA.
Japan over 1-sigma. And EMM is approaching 1-sigma.
China and Europe are at negative 2 standard deviations compared to short USA.
Japan over 1-sigma. And EMM is approaching 1-sigma.
March 18, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Now. Here is the crazy thing. These things are looking stretched.
China and Europe are at negative 2 standard deviations compared to short USA.
Japan over 1-sigma. And EMM is approaching 1-sigma.
China and Europe are at negative 2 standard deviations compared to short USA.
Japan over 1-sigma. And EMM is approaching 1-sigma.
This is how are those pairs are doing today on a price basis, not inclusive of borrow costs or dividends.
March 18, 2025 at 4:45 PM
This is how are those pairs are doing today on a price basis, not inclusive of borrow costs or dividends.
This exercise was repeated a few days later with Europe and Japan (IEUR EWJ DXJ).
March 18, 2025 at 4:45 PM
This exercise was repeated a few days later with Europe and Japan (IEUR EWJ DXJ).
I think the key insight was in contextualizing the outperformance vs the foreign selloff of Q4 2024, using a 100d rolling average, with the following conclusion.
March 18, 2025 at 4:45 PM
I think the key insight was in contextualizing the outperformance vs the foreign selloff of Q4 2024, using a 100d rolling average, with the following conclusion.
Credit markets don’t think growth or inflation will go off the rails.
Trash spreads in IG and HY have actually improved a smidgen since December 4th.
Trash spreads in IG and HY have actually improved a smidgen since December 4th.
December 26, 2024 at 5:32 PM
Credit markets don’t think growth or inflation will go off the rails.
Trash spreads in IG and HY have actually improved a smidgen since December 4th.
Trash spreads in IG and HY have actually improved a smidgen since December 4th.
Subs got the number before the street.
December 11, 2024 at 10:07 PM
Subs got the number before the street.
Lots of inflationary hate on the other site. This is a feature and not a bug that the people losing money don’t understand.
The Fed WILL tolerate some short term inflation vol as a matter of policy.
The Fed WILL tolerate some short term inflation vol as a matter of policy.
December 11, 2024 at 5:54 PM
Lots of inflationary hate on the other site. This is a feature and not a bug that the people losing money don’t understand.
The Fed WILL tolerate some short term inflation vol as a matter of policy.
The Fed WILL tolerate some short term inflation vol as a matter of policy.
Cleveland Fed head Beth Hammack has gotten the memo that the U.S. economy is mid-cycle. From Feb 2nd.
December 6, 2024 at 7:44 PM
Cleveland Fed head Beth Hammack has gotten the memo that the U.S. economy is mid-cycle. From Feb 2nd.
Celebrate this. They did it. The labor market cooled without crashing.
Talk about pinning it and threading a fire hose through a needle.
Talk about pinning it and threading a fire hose through a needle.
December 6, 2024 at 2:12 PM
Celebrate this. They did it. The labor market cooled without crashing.
Talk about pinning it and threading a fire hose through a needle.
Talk about pinning it and threading a fire hose through a needle.
Here is what the move in nominals looked like as of close Thrs.
Spoiler alert: it’s not as growthy as one would think.
Spoiler alert: it’s not as growthy as one would think.
November 25, 2024 at 4:41 PM
Here is what the move in nominals looked like as of close Thrs.
Spoiler alert: it’s not as growthy as one would think.
Spoiler alert: it’s not as growthy as one would think.
Here’s your TSLA move
November 18, 2024 at 3:11 PM
Here’s your TSLA move