Paul Bivand
@paulbivand.bsky.social
Labour market stats wonk: default mode: cynical. Boosts are not endorsements and may be ironic. Also on avian-dinosaur-site @PaulBivand
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Personal view alert:
It would our politics good if more politicians - whatever their allegiance - posted to social media more in this way. Stick the soundbites to one side and demonstrate the intent and the rationale.
You might still disagree with it, but it's a better start for a debate.
It would our politics good if more politicians - whatever their allegiance - posted to social media more in this way. Stick the soundbites to one side and demonstrate the intent and the rationale.
You might still disagree with it, but it's a better start for a debate.
Rightly lots of debates about growth this weekend - rightly because it was low productivity growth that saw wages entirely flatline during the 2010s.
November 30, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Personal view alert:
It would our politics good if more politicians - whatever their allegiance - posted to social media more in this way. Stick the soundbites to one side and demonstrate the intent and the rationale.
You might still disagree with it, but it's a better start for a debate.
It would our politics good if more politicians - whatever their allegiance - posted to social media more in this way. Stick the soundbites to one side and demonstrate the intent and the rationale.
You might still disagree with it, but it's a better start for a debate.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
@jonnelledge.bsky.social Really pleased to hear you make the point on OGWN about the number of car trips that could be walked. It's great to have that out there somewhere people might hear it
November 28, 2025 at 9:30 AM
@jonnelledge.bsky.social Really pleased to hear you make the point on OGWN about the number of car trips that could be walked. It's great to have that out there somewhere people might hear it
Reposted by Paul Bivand
70% of the additional spending from removing the two-child limit will go to families who are in work. This is targeting support for low-income working households who are being priced out of a decent standard of living despite doing everything asked of them.
November 27, 2025 at 4:38 PM
70% of the additional spending from removing the two-child limit will go to families who are in work. This is targeting support for low-income working households who are being priced out of a decent standard of living despite doing everything asked of them.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
A better way of visualising the historic awfulness of our current productivity growth performance. Are we really saying technological progress has come to an end and there's nothing more we can do about it?
(Also, please join my campaign against plotting the derivative of noisy data)
(Also, please join my campaign against plotting the derivative of noisy data)
November 27, 2025 at 3:24 PM
A better way of visualising the historic awfulness of our current productivity growth performance. Are we really saying technological progress has come to an end and there's nothing more we can do about it?
(Also, please join my campaign against plotting the derivative of noisy data)
(Also, please join my campaign against plotting the derivative of noisy data)
Reposted by Paul Bivand
This is our kind of news headline!
Archaeologists not baffled, surprised or shocked
Merely keeping everything very (very) secret 😆
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Archaeologists not baffled, surprised or shocked
Merely keeping everything very (very) secret 😆
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
November 27, 2025 at 11:49 AM
This is our kind of news headline!
Archaeologists not baffled, surprised or shocked
Merely keeping everything very (very) secret 😆
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Archaeologists not baffled, surprised or shocked
Merely keeping everything very (very) secret 😆
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
The large drop in immigration seen in today's ONS data will likely have huge consequences for social care.
The sector has been entirely reliant on care workers from overseas to meet growing demand.
Read our statement from Researcher @cglobont.bsky.social 👇
The sector has been entirely reliant on care workers from overseas to meet growing demand.
Read our statement from Researcher @cglobont.bsky.social 👇
Falling immigration presents problems for social care sector
Cyril Lobont responds to new immigration data from the Office for National Statistics.
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk
November 27, 2025 at 12:33 PM
The large drop in immigration seen in today's ONS data will likely have huge consequences for social care.
The sector has been entirely reliant on care workers from overseas to meet growing demand.
Read our statement from Researcher @cglobont.bsky.social 👇
The sector has been entirely reliant on care workers from overseas to meet growing demand.
Read our statement from Researcher @cglobont.bsky.social 👇
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Quick follow-up to yesterday: no mention of Local Housing Allowance or the benefit cap in any of budget documents but Pat McFadden confirmed in a written statement later that the freeze in both will continue into next year
hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2025...
hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2025...
November 27, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Quick follow-up to yesterday: no mention of Local Housing Allowance or the benefit cap in any of budget documents but Pat McFadden confirmed in a written statement later that the freeze in both will continue into next year
hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2025...
hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2025...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Department for Work & Pensions 2024-25
Outdated IT systems which are inefficient to use and increase risk of error.
IT systems are not fully integrated, with separate systems for different benefits
Some benefit processing still paper-based
www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/u...
@nao.org.uk
Outdated IT systems which are inefficient to use and increase risk of error.
IT systems are not fully integrated, with separate systems for different benefits
Some benefit processing still paper-based
www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/u...
@nao.org.uk
www.nao.org.uk
November 27, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Department for Work & Pensions 2024-25
Outdated IT systems which are inefficient to use and increase risk of error.
IT systems are not fully integrated, with separate systems for different benefits
Some benefit processing still paper-based
www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/u...
@nao.org.uk
Outdated IT systems which are inefficient to use and increase risk of error.
IT systems are not fully integrated, with separate systems for different benefits
Some benefit processing still paper-based
www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/u...
@nao.org.uk
Reposted by Paul Bivand
why does the useless bloody ICO allow absolute bullshit like this cookie tool? It's designed to be difficult to reject cookies; you have to find each toggle and turn it off and there's no way to reject them all.
November 26, 2025 at 11:33 PM
why does the useless bloody ICO allow absolute bullshit like this cookie tool? It's designed to be difficult to reject cookies; you have to find each toggle and turn it off and there's no way to reject them all.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
I'm delighted to say we have won the Queen Elizabeth Prize for Education with our work on OpenSAFELY, inventing new methods that let researchers analyse NHS GP data while protecting everyone's privacy, and with complete transparency, in a hugely productive platform!
www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-11...
www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-11...
OpenSAFELY team awarded Queen Elizabeth Prize for Higher and Further
Oxford’s OpenSAFELY team wins the prestigious Queen Elizabeth Prize for revolutionising secure NHS data research, protecting patient privacy while unlocking life-saving health insights.
www.ox.ac.uk
November 26, 2025 at 5:53 PM
I'm delighted to say we have won the Queen Elizabeth Prize for Education with our work on OpenSAFELY, inventing new methods that let researchers analyse NHS GP data while protecting everyone's privacy, and with complete transparency, in a hugely productive platform!
www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-11...
www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-11...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Not well understood that 6 in 10 families impacted by the two-child limit are in work, and that the vast majority have 3 or 4 children.
The Chancellor has scrapped the two-child limit, benefitting more than half a million families.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
November 26, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Not well understood that 6 in 10 families impacted by the two-child limit are in work, and that the vast majority have 3 or 4 children.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Today the OBR finally published employment impacts of Govt’s (remaining) disability benefit cuts, which weren’t ready in the spring. Confirms @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis at the time that these huge cuts to disabled people’s incomes come with relatively few expected to move into work. 🧵1/3
November 26, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Today the OBR finally published employment impacts of Govt’s (remaining) disability benefit cuts, which weren’t ready in the spring. Confirms @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis at the time that these huge cuts to disabled people’s incomes come with relatively few expected to move into work. 🧵1/3
Reposted by Paul Bivand
And the £1 billion extra employment support results in 20,000 to 40,000 people getting into work by 2029/30. This is more pessimistic than our estimates at the time (45,000-95,000), which @learnworkuk.bsky.social produced for us: 3/3 learningandwork.org.uk/resources/re...
Estimating the impacts of extra employment support for disabled people
learningandwork.org.uk
November 26, 2025 at 4:08 PM
And the £1 billion extra employment support results in 20,000 to 40,000 people getting into work by 2029/30. This is more pessimistic than our estimates at the time (45,000-95,000), which @learnworkuk.bsky.social produced for us: 3/3 learningandwork.org.uk/resources/re...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Ending 2 child cap offers no help to those hit by OBC. No family in Wales with 3 kids escapes but add that to the new per-child childcare support and it's a real jump in support if you're earning over 16 x NLW. The better-off in-work numbers can look huge.
November 26, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Ending 2 child cap offers no help to those hit by OBC. No family in Wales with 3 kids escapes but add that to the new per-child childcare support and it's a real jump in support if you're earning over 16 x NLW. The better-off in-work numbers can look huge.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
The abolition of the two-child benefit cap, which punishes children for their parents' circumstances, is the best part of the budget, potentially lifting almost half a million children out of poverty.
It may also be the part that comes under fiercest attack. So it needs celebrating and defending.
It may also be the part that comes under fiercest attack. So it needs celebrating and defending.
And the two child benefit limit is abolished. An enormous victory for those who have campaigned tirelessly for eight long years through successive governments. This will lift at least 450,000 children out of poverty. Fewer kids will be hungry. No more women forced to disclose their rape.
November 26, 2025 at 1:57 PM
The abolition of the two-child benefit cap, which punishes children for their parents' circumstances, is the best part of the budget, potentially lifting almost half a million children out of poverty.
It may also be the part that comes under fiercest attack. So it needs celebrating and defending.
It may also be the part that comes under fiercest attack. So it needs celebrating and defending.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
And the two child benefit limit is abolished. An enormous victory for those who have campaigned tirelessly for eight long years through successive governments. This will lift at least 450,000 children out of poverty. Fewer kids will be hungry. No more women forced to disclose their rape.
November 26, 2025 at 1:37 PM
And the two child benefit limit is abolished. An enormous victory for those who have campaigned tirelessly for eight long years through successive governments. This will lift at least 450,000 children out of poverty. Fewer kids will be hungry. No more women forced to disclose their rape.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Chancellor confirms she will fully lift the limit on additional benefits for third and subsequent children, and dedicates a long chunk of the speech to explaining why. Hooray.
November 26, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Chancellor confirms she will fully lift the limit on additional benefits for third and subsequent children, and dedicates a long chunk of the speech to explaining why. Hooray.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
🎉Child poverty is at a record high, so the decision to end the two child limit is crucial
Poverty holds children back, with consequences for all of us. Every child should have a good start in life
This measure alone lifts 450,000 out of poverty & lessens severity for many more
Poverty holds children back, with consequences for all of us. Every child should have a good start in life
This measure alone lifts 450,000 out of poverty & lessens severity for many more
November 26, 2025 at 1:32 PM
🎉Child poverty is at a record high, so the decision to end the two child limit is crucial
Poverty holds children back, with consequences for all of us. Every child should have a good start in life
This measure alone lifts 450,000 out of poverty & lessens severity for many more
Poverty holds children back, with consequences for all of us. Every child should have a good start in life
This measure alone lifts 450,000 out of poverty & lessens severity for many more
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Sorry, no, Motability was not about 'helping the most vulnerable' - it was about providing people who need modified vehicles modified vehicles!
November 26, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Sorry, no, Motability was not about 'helping the most vulnerable' - it was about providing people who need modified vehicles modified vehicles!
Reposted by Paul Bivand
The number of mouths a family had to feed had been connected to the support it received ever since the Elizabethan poor law — until George Osborne’s 2-child limit
Now that broken link is to be fixed
Now that broken link is to be fixed
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 1:09 PM
The number of mouths a family had to feed had been connected to the support it received ever since the Elizabethan poor law — until George Osborne’s 2-child limit
Now that broken link is to be fixed
Now that broken link is to be fixed
Reposted by Paul Bivand
£820m over three years for youth guarantee, plus more support for apprenticeships sounds positive.
November 26, 2025 at 1:12 PM
£820m over three years for youth guarantee, plus more support for apprenticeships sounds positive.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Carers Allowance Overpayments Review is truly jaw-dropping. Years of abject failure from DWP to treat carers with fairness or compassion is appalling. All credit to @carers-uk.bsky.social for tireless campaigning. And Stephen Timms for commissioning the review and accepting recommendations.
Major news in the campaign to stop the Carers Allowance Overpayments scandal: https://go.carersuk.org/CA-OP?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign&utm_content=ap_d070omahrm. The Government have published the independent review by @lizsayce and its response.
Unprecedented changes for carers as Government responds to Carer’s Allowance overpayments review recommendations | Carers UK
It’s a landmark day today for the carers’ movement now that the Government has responded to the independent review of overpayments by Liz Sayce OBE.
go.carersuk.org
November 26, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Carers Allowance Overpayments Review is truly jaw-dropping. Years of abject failure from DWP to treat carers with fairness or compassion is appalling. All credit to @carers-uk.bsky.social for tireless campaigning. And Stephen Timms for commissioning the review and accepting recommendations.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Apropos the potential salary sacrifice changes: HMRC have been auditing companies on - inter alia - the impact of salary sacrifice on National Living Wage compliance (rightly) 1/n
November 25, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Apropos the potential salary sacrifice changes: HMRC have been auditing companies on - inter alia - the impact of salary sacrifice on National Living Wage compliance (rightly) 1/n