Paul
@paulb72.bsky.social
Zachtwerkende Nederlander. Paris & Berlin, previously in The Hague and Rabat. Views mine
Words at chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
Words at chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
Pinned
Paul
@paulb72.bsky.social
· 4d
China's 2026 Economic Outlook: The big picture
The most important narratives in China macro for the new year
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
New: "China's 2026 Economic Outlook: The big picture"
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
Lekker gewerkt
Groeiende kritiek op de manier waarop Peter Wennink in zijn rapport met cijfers omspringt
Groeiende kritiek op de manier waarop Peter Wennink in zijn rapport met cijfers omspringt
Het ongemak groeit over de analyse die Peter Wennink maakte van de Nederlandse economie. De adviezen zijn het probleem niet, maar ze worden voorafgegaan door elkaar tegensprekende cijfers en getallen die je niet bij elkaar kunt optellen.
www.nrc.nl
January 1, 2026 at 8:29 PM
Lekker gewerkt
I like dogs. But i dislike how many negative externalities dog owners generate
Think one of the next big fronts in the culture wars will be between dog owners and people who really dislike dogs
January 1, 2026 at 12:39 PM
I like dogs. But i dislike how many negative externalities dog owners generate
Reposted by Paul
Gifted Youngster Sells Cookies To Buy Attack Ad
December 30, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Gifted Youngster Sells Cookies To Buy Attack Ad
Reposted by Paul
Helemaal eens met @guusvalk.bsky.social
De Antifa-motie was de belangrijkste motie van 2025, omdat zij een uiterst-rechts waanbeeld en een extreem-rechtse partij (her)normaliseerde.
De Antifa-motie was de belangrijkste motie van 2025, omdat zij een uiterst-rechts waanbeeld en een extreem-rechtse partij (her)normaliseerde.
Column | Geen ReArm Europe en antifa verbieden: de twee meest onthullende moties van 2025
Tijs van den Brink, sinds kort Tweede Kamerlid voor het CDA, legde onlangs in gesprek met NRC zijn overstap van de journalistiek kort en krachtig uit: „De volksvertegenwoordiging, dát is het hoogste w...
www.nrc.nl
December 30, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Helemaal eens met @guusvalk.bsky.social
De Antifa-motie was de belangrijkste motie van 2025, omdat zij een uiterst-rechts waanbeeld en een extreem-rechtse partij (her)normaliseerde.
De Antifa-motie was de belangrijkste motie van 2025, omdat zij een uiterst-rechts waanbeeld en een extreem-rechtse partij (her)normaliseerde.
Pretty cool chart from @chrisgiles.ft.com newsletter
December 30, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Pretty cool chart from @chrisgiles.ft.com newsletter
And a lot of people -- who are paid a lot more than I am for writing my little Substack -- were saying anti-involution was behind the fixed investment slide...
research.gavekal.com/teaser/waiti...
research.gavekal.com/teaser/waiti...
Waiting For Anti-Involution Output Cuts
- Gavekal Research
research.gavekal.com
December 28, 2025 at 10:42 PM
And a lot of people -- who are paid a lot more than I am for writing my little Substack -- were saying anti-involution was behind the fixed investment slide...
research.gavekal.com/teaser/waiti...
research.gavekal.com/teaser/waiti...
We need to get these people the hell out of the political system. This person is literally a nazi. From germany. We can't have that
Aristocrate descendante de l'élite nazie et de Karl Marx, proche des extrêmes droites américaines, la vice-présidente de l’AfD a publié sa stratégie : gagner le Kulturkampf afin de rendre acceptable un programme extrême.
L'Avent de l'interrègne 6/8.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/12/2...
L'Avent de l'interrègne 6/8.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/12/2...
Beatrix von Storch : la stratège de l’AfD qui veut prendre l’Allemagne
Aristocrate descendante de hauts dignitaires nazis, proche des extrêmes droites américaines — de Bannon à Kast —, la vice-présidente de l’AfD a publié sa stratégie pour briser le cordon sanitaire en A...
legrandcontinent.eu
December 28, 2025 at 8:35 PM
We need to get these people the hell out of the political system. This person is literally a nazi. From germany. We can't have that
Reposted by Paul
Aristocrate descendante de l'élite nazie et de Karl Marx, proche des extrêmes droites américaines, la vice-présidente de l’AfD a publié sa stratégie : gagner le Kulturkampf afin de rendre acceptable un programme extrême.
L'Avent de l'interrègne 6/8.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/12/2...
L'Avent de l'interrègne 6/8.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/12/2...
Beatrix von Storch : la stratège de l’AfD qui veut prendre l’Allemagne
Aristocrate descendante de hauts dignitaires nazis, proche des extrêmes droites américaines — de Bannon à Kast —, la vice-présidente de l’AfD a publié sa stratégie pour briser le cordon sanitaire en A...
legrandcontinent.eu
December 22, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Aristocrate descendante de l'élite nazie et de Karl Marx, proche des extrêmes droites américaines, la vice-présidente de l’AfD a publié sa stratégie : gagner le Kulturkampf afin de rendre acceptable un programme extrême.
L'Avent de l'interrègne 6/8.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/12/2...
L'Avent de l'interrègne 6/8.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/12/2...
Reposted by Paul
New: "China's 2026 Economic Outlook: The big picture"
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
China's 2026 Economic Outlook: The big picture
The most important narratives in China macro for the new year
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 9:40 AM
New: "China's 2026 Economic Outlook: The big picture"
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
New: "China's 2026 Economic Outlook: The big picture"
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
China's 2026 Economic Outlook: The big picture
The most important narratives in China macro for the new year
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 9:40 AM
New: "China's 2026 Economic Outlook: The big picture"
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
These were the media narratives that annoyed me the most in 2025:
- The "Russia-China-Iran nexus"
- China now leads the 'green transition'
- Anything about migration being bad
- The "Russia-China-Iran nexus"
- China now leads the 'green transition'
- Anything about migration being bad
So much of the economic and political analysis that you read in the news - and even from respected outlets and institutions - is actually just really shoddy work
Historian here 💯I found this out writing my book on abolition, on how respectable historians of all persuasions had made up stuff about abolitionists misquoted and partially quoted them out of context. Quickly realized that I had to go back to the drawing board. As Dad said no short cut to hard work
December 27, 2025 at 11:51 AM
These were the media narratives that annoyed me the most in 2025:
- The "Russia-China-Iran nexus"
- China now leads the 'green transition'
- Anything about migration being bad
- The "Russia-China-Iran nexus"
- China now leads the 'green transition'
- Anything about migration being bad
Reposted by Paul
Wooden Spoon Only Thing In Man’s Life That Not Giving Him Cancer https://theonion.com/wooden-spoon-only-thing-in-mans-life-that-not-giving-him-cancer/
December 26, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Wooden Spoon Only Thing In Man’s Life That Not Giving Him Cancer https://theonion.com/wooden-spoon-only-thing-in-mans-life-that-not-giving-him-cancer/
This is insane www.infinitejaz.com/p/mohammed-i...
Mohammed Ibrahim’s Stolen Year
The newly freed sixteen-year-old Palestinian American shares his first account of 9½ months in Israeli military detention.
www.infinitejaz.com
December 26, 2025 at 7:28 PM
This is insane www.infinitejaz.com/p/mohammed-i...
So much of the economic and political analysis that you read in the news - and even from respected outlets and institutions - is actually just really shoddy work
Historian here 💯I found this out writing my book on abolition, on how respectable historians of all persuasions had made up stuff about abolitionists misquoted and partially quoted them out of context. Quickly realized that I had to go back to the drawing board. As Dad said no short cut to hard work
looking up the source of quotes, whether for a book or a video script, is great for figuring out when a quote everyone "knows" and has repeated for ages is actually just weird bullshit someone else made up
December 26, 2025 at 4:50 PM
So much of the economic and political analysis that you read in the news - and even from respected outlets and institutions - is actually just really shoddy work
Reposted by Paul
Historian here 💯I found this out writing my book on abolition, on how respectable historians of all persuasions had made up stuff about abolitionists misquoted and partially quoted them out of context. Quickly realized that I had to go back to the drawing board. As Dad said no short cut to hard work
looking up the source of quotes, whether for a book or a video script, is great for figuring out when a quote everyone "knows" and has repeated for ages is actually just weird bullshit someone else made up
December 26, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Historian here 💯I found this out writing my book on abolition, on how respectable historians of all persuasions had made up stuff about abolitionists misquoted and partially quoted them out of context. Quickly realized that I had to go back to the drawing board. As Dad said no short cut to hard work
If you’re not posting through christmas, your heart isn’t in it and I can’t really take you seriously anymore
December 26, 2025 at 2:46 PM
If you’re not posting through christmas, your heart isn’t in it and I can’t really take you seriously anymore
You need local legitimacy. And the best way to obtain that in 2025 is to distribute gains among the local population. Any attempt to rip off the population, and get off with their resources, is bound to end in failure. This isn't the Victorian era. They have AK's and IEDs now
You can't just go in, pay some bribes, and extract. Look at Mozambique, some companies went in to extract natural gas with European support. In the end, they sparked an insurgency because the locals felt they were getting ripped off, which derailed the entire project
EU foreign aid takes transactional turn with Africa minerals push
Investment in Lobito Corridor comes as bloc channels development assistance towards energy, metals and migration
www.ft.com
December 26, 2025 at 9:49 AM
You need local legitimacy. And the best way to obtain that in 2025 is to distribute gains among the local population. Any attempt to rip off the population, and get off with their resources, is bound to end in failure. This isn't the Victorian era. They have AK's and IEDs now
Reposted by Paul
We've always had these dead-eyed socipaths around. It's just a few years ago they were ignored and now they're "senior fellow" at places funded by evil millionaires + going on podcasts with a brain-rotted ex-PM.
Harrison Pitt accuses the King of treachery. Pitt is a Senior Policy Fellow for Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain, who also regularly co-hosts podcasts with his ally Tomlinson (who advocates banning all ethnic and faith minorities from public office). Like Lowe, Pitt is keen to dissolve boundaries/norms
December 26, 2025 at 9:08 AM
We've always had these dead-eyed socipaths around. It's just a few years ago they were ignored and now they're "senior fellow" at places funded by evil millionaires + going on podcasts with a brain-rotted ex-PM.
Reposted by Paul
Trump annonce que les États-Unis ont mené de "nombreuses" frappes meurtrières contre l'EI au Nigéria
Trump annonce que les États-Unis ont mené de "nombreuses" frappes meurtrières contre l'EI au Nigéria
Les États-Unis ont mené des frappes aériennes contre des combattants de l'État islamique dans le nord-ouest du Nigeria, a déclaré jeudi le président Donald Trump sur son réseau social Truth, leur reprochant d'avoir assassiné des chrétiens dans la région.
f24.my
December 25, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Trump annonce que les États-Unis ont mené de "nombreuses" frappes meurtrières contre l'EI au Nigéria
Wie herinnert zich "Woedeaanval Wiersma" nog
December 25, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Wie herinnert zich "Woedeaanval Wiersma" nog
You can't just go in, pay some bribes, and extract. Look at Mozambique, some companies went in to extract natural gas with European support. In the end, they sparked an insurgency because the locals felt they were getting ripped off, which derailed the entire project
EU foreign aid takes transactional turn with Africa minerals push
Investment in Lobito Corridor comes as bloc channels development assistance towards energy, metals and migration
www.ft.com
December 25, 2025 at 11:13 AM
You can't just go in, pay some bribes, and extract. Look at Mozambique, some companies went in to extract natural gas with European support. In the end, they sparked an insurgency because the locals felt they were getting ripped off, which derailed the entire project
More evidence in favor of generous minimum wage bumps
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Who’s Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns,” by Rao (@nirupama.bsky.social) and Risch: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Who’s Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns*
Abstract. A common concern surrounding minimum wage policies is their impact on independent businesses, which are often feared to be less able to bear or p
doi.org
December 24, 2025 at 11:54 PM
More evidence in favor of generous minimum wage bumps
Reposted by Paul
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Who’s Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns,” by Rao (@nirupama.bsky.social) and Risch: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Who’s Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns*
Abstract. A common concern surrounding minimum wage policies is their impact on independent businesses, which are often feared to be less able to bear or p
doi.org
December 24, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Who’s Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns,” by Rao (@nirupama.bsky.social) and Risch: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...