Neil Mehrotra
@neilmehrotra.bsky.social
Macroeconomist. Former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics at US Treasury. Views are my own.
Reposted by Neil Mehrotra
5 weeks ago, I wrote about the shutdown's impact on the labor market and how big it would be. A big reason why the impact has been small so far: few irreversible events.
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
November 7, 2025 at 9:30 PM
5 weeks ago, I wrote about the shutdown's impact on the labor market and how big it would be. A big reason why the impact has been small so far: few irreversible events.
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
I really don't think this is the right takeaway. Solar is great but electricity that is available only at certain times and only under certain conditions is not a great substitute for dispatchable power. It would benefit clean energy advocates to give more thought to how to produce clean firm power.
We are going to live in a world where the the marginal cost of electricity is very close to zero
Australia has so much electricity from solar power that it is going to start offering free electricity to everyone for at least three hours during the day as the wholesale price of power goes negative
electrek.co/2025/11/04/a...
electrek.co/2025/11/04/a...
November 6, 2025 at 6:32 PM
I really don't think this is the right takeaway. Solar is great but electricity that is available only at certain times and only under certain conditions is not a great substitute for dispatchable power. It would benefit clean energy advocates to give more thought to how to produce clean firm power.
Reposted by Neil Mehrotra
The podcast version of our BPEA paper on “Who bears the burden of climate inaction?” (thread below, with @cwolfram.bsky.social and @knittelmit.bsky.social) just dropped .
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
October 23, 2025 at 3:52 PM
The podcast version of our BPEA paper on “Who bears the burden of climate inaction?” (thread below, with @cwolfram.bsky.social and @knittelmit.bsky.social) just dropped .
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
Reposted by Neil Mehrotra
🧵 (1/7) With @knittelmit.bsky.social and @cwolfram.bsky.social, happy to announce our new paper on “Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?”, just posted for BPEA @brookings.edu.
We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income.
www.brookings.edu/articles/who...
We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income.
www.brookings.edu/articles/who...
September 25, 2025 at 1:07 PM
🧵 (1/7) With @knittelmit.bsky.social and @cwolfram.bsky.social, happy to announce our new paper on “Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?”, just posted for BPEA @brookings.edu.
We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income.
www.brookings.edu/articles/who...
We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income.
www.brookings.edu/articles/who...
Reposted by Neil Mehrotra
Thanks to @kclausing.bsky.social for the great thread on our BPEA paper with @knittelmit.bsky.social!
Bottom line: US households experience climate change primarily through wildfires and storms more than heat.
Bottom line: US households experience climate change primarily through wildfires and storms more than heat.
🧵 (1/7) With @knittelmit.bsky.social and @cwolfram.bsky.social, happy to announce our new paper on “Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?”, just posted for BPEA @brookings.edu.
We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income.
www.brookings.edu/articles/who...
We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income.
www.brookings.edu/articles/who...
September 25, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Thanks to @kclausing.bsky.social for the great thread on our BPEA paper with @knittelmit.bsky.social!
Bottom line: US households experience climate change primarily through wildfires and storms more than heat.
Bottom line: US households experience climate change primarily through wildfires and storms more than heat.
1/8: Quick thread on a new short paper with Mike Waugh in the latest edition of the Minneapolis Fed Quarterly Review:
September 5, 2025 at 8:11 PM
1/8: Quick thread on a new short paper with Mike Waugh in the latest edition of the Minneapolis Fed Quarterly Review:
Imho too much discussion on here about whether the labor market is weak or not given slowdown in labor supply. Too little discussion of how to proceed with downside risks to both sides of the mandate.
September 5, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Imho too much discussion on here about whether the labor market is weak or not given slowdown in labor supply. Too little discussion of how to proceed with downside risks to both sides of the mandate.
Reposted by Neil Mehrotra
The implication is that the rest of the Board is accepting her firing, and that she has been removed. Not good. The better strategy would be to continue work as normal and make Trump get an order removing her.
August 26, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The implication is that the rest of the Board is accepting her firing, and that she has been removed. Not good. The better strategy would be to continue work as normal and make Trump get an order removing her.
TFW no one talked to a macroeconomists at any point from working paper to publication: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
This climate study made a big error. One piece of data was to blame.
Uzbekistan’s erroneous data dramatically changed the results of a study on global climate damages.
www.washingtonpost.com
August 7, 2025 at 2:14 PM
TFW no one talked to a macroeconomists at any point from working paper to publication: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Reposted by Neil Mehrotra
This is exactly right. Anyone voting for the spending bill is voting for higher energy bills and blackouts.
If this Senate language on solar passes, I think we’re in a full-blown national energy crisis within 2 years.
Forecasting after the cliff is even worse, but project pipelines will dry up, supply chains will convulse...and cost of new additions will soar. Assuming we can even meet demand growth. 🔌💡
Forecasting after the cliff is even worse, but project pipelines will dry up, supply chains will convulse...and cost of new additions will soar. Assuming we can even meet demand growth. 🔌💡
June 28, 2025 at 4:11 PM
This is exactly right. Anyone voting for the spending bill is voting for higher energy bills and blackouts.
A sad capitulation from the Timberpuppies. Sigh.
May 29, 2025 at 3:19 AM
A sad capitulation from the Timberpuppies. Sigh.
Reposted by Neil Mehrotra
Federal Reserve to slash staff by 10% over several years
https://www.ft.com/content/927ba69e-3037-4e0f-b9a6-1eeaac8b03b7
https://www.ft.com/content/927ba69e-3037-4e0f-b9a6-1eeaac8b03b7
Federal Reserve to slash staff by 10% over several years
Chief Jay Powell says US central bank is seeking to ensure it is a ‘responsible steward of public resources’
www.ft.com
May 16, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Federal Reserve to slash staff by 10% over several years
https://www.ft.com/content/927ba69e-3037-4e0f-b9a6-1eeaac8b03b7
https://www.ft.com/content/927ba69e-3037-4e0f-b9a6-1eeaac8b03b7
Reposted by Neil Mehrotra
Initial claims come in slightly above prior non-recessionary years, both in headcount (1st) & share-of-emp (2nd) terms. Initial claims are ~19K above where they were same week in 2019. Not a catastrophe but it's notable. Continuing claims slightly above recent years too (3rd).
May 1, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Initial claims come in slightly above prior non-recessionary years, both in headcount (1st) & share-of-emp (2nd) terms. Initial claims are ~19K above where they were same week in 2019. Not a catastrophe but it's notable. Continuing claims slightly above recent years too (3rd).
Reposted by Neil Mehrotra
Remarkable how Trump dealt himself the worst possible hand to negotiate w/ China.
1st card: Enacted tariffs that threaten to tank the economy
2nd: Backs China into a corner.
3rd: Makes fed incapable of responding
4th: Tanks markets, bonds and the dollar
5th: no end game, no plan
1st card: Enacted tariffs that threaten to tank the economy
2nd: Backs China into a corner.
3rd: Makes fed incapable of responding
4th: Tanks markets, bonds and the dollar
5th: no end game, no plan
April 23, 2025 at 11:17 PM
Remarkable how Trump dealt himself the worst possible hand to negotiate w/ China.
1st card: Enacted tariffs that threaten to tank the economy
2nd: Backs China into a corner.
3rd: Makes fed incapable of responding
4th: Tanks markets, bonds and the dollar
5th: no end game, no plan
1st card: Enacted tariffs that threaten to tank the economy
2nd: Backs China into a corner.
3rd: Makes fed incapable of responding
4th: Tanks markets, bonds and the dollar
5th: no end game, no plan
Greg Gutfield unimpressed by Ernie and company fancy math cc @marthagimbel.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
WATCH— @jessicatarlov.bsky.social : “Why are you making fun of smart people that calculate things?”
Jessica points out Trump is making it seem like he paused all the tariffs but the Yale budget lab says those remaining will cost each 🇺🇸 household $4400, the highest tariff rate since 1909.
Jessica points out Trump is making it seem like he paused all the tariffs but the Yale budget lab says those remaining will cost each 🇺🇸 household $4400, the highest tariff rate since 1909.
April 10, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Greg Gutfield unimpressed by Ernie and company fancy math cc @marthagimbel.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
Unchanged jobless claims in the face of multiple standard deviation uncertainty shocks is fairly impressive.
April 10, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Unchanged jobless claims in the face of multiple standard deviation uncertainty shocks is fairly impressive.
This is wrong - only Chetty is supposed to have access to all these data sets.
A disturbing catalog of the personal data DOGE is getting access to (with a bonus cameo by yours truly)
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/u...
How Musk and Trump Are Working to Consolidate Government Data About You
Databases that Elon Musk’s team is trying to access include more than 300 personal details about members of the U.S. public.
www.nytimes.com
April 9, 2025 at 4:49 PM
This is wrong - only Chetty is supposed to have access to all these data sets.
Maybe there's an innocuous explanation, but we might be seeing the consequences of squandering our exorbitant privilege in the first 100 days:
The last two days have seen one of the largest increases in long-term bond yields since the huge gyrations of the Volcker shock in the early 1980s.
April 9, 2025 at 2:21 AM
Maybe there's an innocuous explanation, but we might be seeing the consequences of squandering our exorbitant privilege in the first 100 days:
Reposted by Neil Mehrotra
Every day we learn anew just how much classified ads were perhaps the load-bearing pillar of American hegemony
April 3, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Every day we learn anew just how much classified ads were perhaps the load-bearing pillar of American hegemony
😬
I ran out of time to ask Tai this tonight, BUT she also seemed to be remarkably sanguine about the Trump announcement!
April 3, 2025 at 2:41 AM
😬
Strong Tower of Juche energy today: www.google.com/url?sa=i&url...
April 3, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Strong Tower of Juche energy today: www.google.com/url?sa=i&url...
Well it was a good run.
April 3, 2025 at 1:21 AM
Well it was a good run.
It would really be good if blue states and universities stepped into the breach - replacing the funding the NSF and NIH is not a heavy lift fiscally.
“This will go down as one of the darkest days in modern scientific history in my 50 years in the business,” says Michael Osterholm, an infectious-diseases epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. “These are going to be huge losses to the research community.”
‘One of the darkest days’: NIH purges agency leadership amid mass layoffs
In shock move, four institute directors at the US biomedical agency are removed from their posts.
www.nature.com
April 2, 2025 at 12:57 AM
It would really be good if blue states and universities stepped into the breach - replacing the funding the NSF and NIH is not a heavy lift fiscally.
Reposted by Neil Mehrotra
Just an incredibly ugly ISM Manufacturing report.
The only categories that are rising relate to prices and inventories. Everything else going down. And virtually all of the comments are from manufacturers complaining about the tariffs.
Full newsletter here: www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
The only categories that are rising relate to prices and inventories. Everything else going down. And virtually all of the comments are from manufacturers complaining about the tariffs.
Full newsletter here: www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
April 1, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Just an incredibly ugly ISM Manufacturing report.
The only categories that are rising relate to prices and inventories. Everything else going down. And virtually all of the comments are from manufacturers complaining about the tariffs.
Full newsletter here: www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
The only categories that are rising relate to prices and inventories. Everything else going down. And virtually all of the comments are from manufacturers complaining about the tariffs.
Full newsletter here: www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Pretty impressive combination of increased generation and reduced emissions in EU power generation:
🇪🇺 NEW | #EU #CO2 fossil fuel #emissions decreased by 2.9% in 2024, following a steep 8.5% drop in 2023, CREA's early estimates suggest
The reduction was driven mainly by decreased coal use in the power sector, which now accounts for only 19% of EU CO2 fossil fuel emissions
The reduction was driven mainly by decreased coal use in the power sector, which now accounts for only 19% of EU CO2 fossil fuel emissions
March 31, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Pretty impressive combination of increased generation and reduced emissions in EU power generation: