The places where batteries are being deployed in volume have some of the best inherent solar resource. Maybe the price falls by some much that it works in the northeast or midwest, but we're pretty far from that.

Batteries only pencil out if they cycle daily - a lithium ion battery is not going to work to store power seasonally or for a string of cloudy days.

8/8 Here’s the link to the paper – comments welcome! www.minneapolisfed.org/research/qua...

7/8: In future work, we think understanding the distributional effects of tariffs will be important. The heterogenous agent trade models pioneered by Mike are a good laboratory for this.

6/8: How does what we do differ from the explosion of other work on tariffs? Typical trade models are static and do not focus on either interest rate dynamics or investment. Other work assumes a small open economy (constant world interest rate) and/or excludes investment.

5/8: Our paper discusses some other mechanisms that are not present in our model that may attenuate or reverse our conclusion. For example, to the extent that tariffs lead to reindustrialization, that mechanism could work in the other direction.

4/8: Our quantitative simulations suggest that this effect is sizable: on the order of 25-50 basis points for a 15% tariff:

3/8: We find that both unilateral tariffs and a trade war lower the natural rate of interest in the short run. Tariffs and trade wars lower investment by raising the cost of investment goods. This lower demand for assets lowers interest rates and the return on capital.

2/8: We examine the effects of a unilateral tariffs in a global dynamic heterogenous agent trade model. We’re particularly focused on what happens to the natural rate of interest – the neutral interest rate that a central bank wants to target to keep output at potential.

Love the DS9 reference!

The implication is that the rest of the Board is accepting her firing, and that she has been removed. Not good. The better strategy would be to continue work as normal and make Trump get an order removing her.

All the regional presidents are up for reappointment in February 2026 and, even if reappointed, could be removed at any time by the Board of Governors.

What happened to the ~100 billion in rail funding in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law in 2021? What got built?

Really, I mean if it was 52-48, they would have passed something materially similar.