Max Bergmann
@maxbergmann.bsky.social
Director of the Europe, Russia, Eurasia Program at CSIS. Podcasts EuroFile and Russian Roulette. Fmr State Department official. DC sports, Tottenham
This is just such a stunning chart
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
November 17, 2025 at 11:58 PM
This is just such a stunning chart
Reposted by Max Bergmann
Should give serious pause to those who want euro or EU exits.
But of course most of them don't look at research in the first place.
@pgkroegerbb.bsky.social
But of course most of them don't look at research in the first place.
@pgkroegerbb.bsky.social
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
November 17, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Should give serious pause to those who want euro or EU exits.
But of course most of them don't look at research in the first place.
@pgkroegerbb.bsky.social
But of course most of them don't look at research in the first place.
@pgkroegerbb.bsky.social
Reposted by Max Bergmann
if the Washington Post editorial board is now perceived as Bezos stooges, that actually opens up a massive opportunity in the district for a credible, 'good government' local interview and endorsement operation
washpost's ai-generated comment summaries continue to deliver
November 17, 2025 at 4:38 PM
if the Washington Post editorial board is now perceived as Bezos stooges, that actually opens up a massive opportunity in the district for a credible, 'good government' local interview and endorsement operation
Reposted by Max Bergmann
Russia published its budget report for Q3 of 2025. Military spending is not slowing down. In Q3, it was 38% higher than last year (3.6 trillion rubles in Q3, 11.9 trillion rubles so far for the year). Good news: Federal recruitment data is back!
November 17, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Russia published its budget report for Q3 of 2025. Military spending is not slowing down. In Q3, it was 38% higher than last year (3.6 trillion rubles in Q3, 11.9 trillion rubles so far for the year). Good news: Federal recruitment data is back!
NATO's Supreme Allied Commander, Dwight D. Eisenhower in his diary on June 11, 1951, “Europe’s security problem is never going to be solved satisfactorily until there exists a United States of Europe."
November 16, 2025 at 11:25 PM
NATO's Supreme Allied Commander, Dwight D. Eisenhower in his diary on June 11, 1951, “Europe’s security problem is never going to be solved satisfactorily until there exists a United States of Europe."
Reposted by Max Bergmann
Some reflections from my side in the FT.
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
November 15, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Some reflections from my side in the FT.
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
When I first came here 1000 years ago I was not a fan of the brutalism of the DC metro. Now I think it’s pretty damn spectacular.
November 15, 2025 at 3:09 AM
When I first came here 1000 years ago I was not a fan of the brutalism of the DC metro. Now I think it’s pretty damn spectacular.
Reposted by Max Bergmann
This would be great but it’s kinda funny that Germany would still have a small total force + reserve than Finland (wartime strength 280,000 and total reserve about 900,000)
www.ft.com/content/6cbf...
www.ft.com/content/6cbf...
November 13, 2025 at 9:50 PM
This would be great but it’s kinda funny that Germany would still have a small total force + reserve than Finland (wartime strength 280,000 and total reserve about 900,000)
www.ft.com/content/6cbf...
www.ft.com/content/6cbf...
Reposted by Max Bergmann
Solar and wind are covering ALL new power demand worldwide in the first three quarters of 2025 electrek.co/2025/11/13/s...
#upshift 🔌💡
#upshift 🔌💡
November 14, 2025 at 2:27 AM
Solar and wind are covering ALL new power demand worldwide in the first three quarters of 2025 electrek.co/2025/11/13/s...
#upshift 🔌💡
#upshift 🔌💡
Reposted by Max Bergmann
A strong new signal from Merz: “We have decided within the government that everywhere it’s possible we’ll replace components, for example in the 5G network, with components we have produced ourselves. And we won’t allow any components from China in the 6G network.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Germany to Ban Huawei From Future 6G Network in Sovereignty Push
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Chinese suppliers such as Huawei Technologies Co. will be excluded from the country’s future telecommunication networks on security grounds as he pushes for more ...
www.bloomberg.com
November 13, 2025 at 5:53 PM
A strong new signal from Merz: “We have decided within the government that everywhere it’s possible we’ll replace components, for example in the 5G network, with components we have produced ourselves. And we won’t allow any components from China in the 6G network.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Woot! Get back to work, animals.
Smithsonian Museums (and Zoo) Reopening Update!! www.popville.com/2025/11/smit...
Smithsonian Museums (and Zoo) Reopening Update!! - PoPville
From the Smithsonian: "The Smithsonian will reopen the National Museum of American History, the National Air and Space Museum, and the Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center on Friday, Nov. 14. All other museums...
www.popville.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Woot! Get back to work, animals.
Reposted by Max Bergmann
The EU is cracking down on issuing visas to Russians. On one hand that's common sense, for security and moral reasons. But don't lose sight of the argument that there is something dangerous about blaming the crimes of a regime on a people themselves living in a dictatorship.
My Charlemagne:
My Charlemagne:
Europe is cracking down on Russian tourists
That is partly necessary—and partly alarming
www.economist.com
November 13, 2025 at 6:49 PM
The EU is cracking down on issuing visas to Russians. On one hand that's common sense, for security and moral reasons. But don't lose sight of the argument that there is something dangerous about blaming the crimes of a regime on a people themselves living in a dictatorship.
My Charlemagne:
My Charlemagne:
Lots of chatter about Europe in economic disarray, weak growth/innovation, etc. All somewhat true. But at least you can build infrastructure.
not great!
The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law passed 4 years ago. In new research @urbaninstitute.bsky.social we study its effects.
US transport spending increased by 30%, but:
—Funding for non-highway projects flatlined
—Construction cost increases resulted in no actual increase in infrastructure
US transport spending increased by 30%, but:
—Funding for non-highway projects flatlined
—Construction cost increases resulted in no actual increase in infrastructure
November 13, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Lots of chatter about Europe in economic disarray, weak growth/innovation, etc. All somewhat true. But at least you can build infrastructure.
Highly recommend House of Dynamite on Netflix... but my main thought in watching it was imagine the chaos of the decision-making in Europe.
November 13, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Highly recommend House of Dynamite on Netflix... but my main thought in watching it was imagine the chaos of the decision-making in Europe.
Reposted by Max Bergmann
A reasonably grumpy piece by @tbenner.bsky.social on Germany's failed #China policy and what to do now. gppi.net/2025/11/05/c...
China-Schock: Deutschland muss sich selbst behaupten
Kollektives Elitenversagen habe uns erpressbar gemacht und deutsche Kernindustrien hilflos dem China-Schock ausgeliefert. Es sei daher Zeit für einen Kurswechsel, schreibt China-Experte Thorsten Benne...
gppi.net
November 13, 2025 at 12:36 PM
A reasonably grumpy piece by @tbenner.bsky.social on Germany's failed #China policy and what to do now. gppi.net/2025/11/05/c...
Reposted by Max Bergmann
"Es ist ein kollektives deutsches Elitenversagen gigantischen Ausmaßes." #China
(It is a collective failure of German elites at an epic scale. Kind of reminds me of our ties to Russia. All orchestrated to a large extent by the artist formerly known as the leader of the free world.)
(It is a collective failure of German elites at an epic scale. Kind of reminds me of our ties to Russia. All orchestrated to a large extent by the artist formerly known as the leader of the free world.)
November 13, 2025 at 12:38 PM
"Es ist ein kollektives deutsches Elitenversagen gigantischen Ausmaßes." #China
(It is a collective failure of German elites at an epic scale. Kind of reminds me of our ties to Russia. All orchestrated to a large extent by the artist formerly known as the leader of the free world.)
(It is a collective failure of German elites at an epic scale. Kind of reminds me of our ties to Russia. All orchestrated to a large extent by the artist formerly known as the leader of the free world.)
Reposted by Max Bergmann
The exportweltmeister has been dethroned. Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The exportweltmeister has been dethroned. Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Reposted by Max Bergmann
An interesting few weeks in Europe’s relationship with Taiwan. Because of China’s actions, European capitals are drawing closer to Taipei
on.ft.com/49N7Uas
on.ft.com/49N7Uas
Taiwan hails rare flurry of overseas outreach despite China protests
Former president and foreign ministers have made trips to Europe as other nations handle contacts more flexibly
on.ft.com
November 13, 2025 at 12:35 AM
An interesting few weeks in Europe’s relationship with Taiwan. Because of China’s actions, European capitals are drawing closer to Taipei
on.ft.com/49N7Uas
on.ft.com/49N7Uas
Reposted by Max Bergmann
The global auto industry is rapidly evolving, and the emergence of Chinese manufacturers has created new opportunities and risks for emerging markets.
Read more from @chinaecon.csis.org: www.csis.org/analysis/chi...
Read more from @chinaecon.csis.org: www.csis.org/analysis/chi...
November 12, 2025 at 7:00 PM
The global auto industry is rapidly evolving, and the emergence of Chinese manufacturers has created new opportunities and risks for emerging markets.
Read more from @chinaecon.csis.org: www.csis.org/analysis/chi...
Read more from @chinaecon.csis.org: www.csis.org/analysis/chi...
Reposted by Max Bergmann
As usual, @maxbergmann.bsky.social and @ottosvendsen.bsky.social are asking all the right questions! Give this new report by them for @csis.org on “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America”. Timely stuff!
Read: www.csis.org/analysis/how...
Read: www.csis.org/analysis/how...
November 11, 2025 at 1:13 PM
As usual, @maxbergmann.bsky.social and @ottosvendsen.bsky.social are asking all the right questions! Give this new report by them for @csis.org on “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America”. Timely stuff!
Read: www.csis.org/analysis/how...
Read: www.csis.org/analysis/how...
Reposted by Max Bergmann
Europeans should be clear-eyed about the world we actually live in.
And be lucid about the fact that the transatlantic relationship in its old guise is gone for good.
Once you do that, then watch Max lay out the implications.
And be lucid about the fact that the transatlantic relationship in its old guise is gone for good.
Once you do that, then watch Max lay out the implications.
What will it take for Europe to defend itself with reduced American support?
@maxbergmann.bsky.social outlines key vulnerabilities that would be created from a withdrawal of US forces––and how Europe can work cohesively to guarantee its own security.
Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhQj...
@maxbergmann.bsky.social outlines key vulnerabilities that would be created from a withdrawal of US forces––and how Europe can work cohesively to guarantee its own security.
Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhQj...
How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
www.youtube.com
November 12, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Europeans should be clear-eyed about the world we actually live in.
And be lucid about the fact that the transatlantic relationship in its old guise is gone for good.
Once you do that, then watch Max lay out the implications.
And be lucid about the fact that the transatlantic relationship in its old guise is gone for good.
Once you do that, then watch Max lay out the implications.
I’ve gained respect for weathermen
What will it take for Europe to defend itself with reduced American support?
@maxbergmann.bsky.social outlines key vulnerabilities that would be created from a withdrawal of US forces––and how Europe can work cohesively to guarantee its own security.
Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhQj...
@maxbergmann.bsky.social outlines key vulnerabilities that would be created from a withdrawal of US forces––and how Europe can work cohesively to guarantee its own security.
Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhQj...
How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
www.youtube.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:20 AM
I’ve gained respect for weathermen
Reposted by Max Bergmann
Must-read 👉🏻 A new CSIS report by @maxbergmann.bsky.social & Otto Hastrup Svendsen outlines 5 key tasks #Europeans should undertake to defend themselves with less #America & deter further #Russian aggression
www.csis.org/analysis/how...
www.csis.org/analysis/how...
How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America
A potential U.S. force posture reduction in Europe will leave the continent vulnerable to further Russian aggression. Europe needs a bold action plan to mitigate capability gaps and ensure deterrence ...
www.csis.org
November 11, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Must-read 👉🏻 A new CSIS report by @maxbergmann.bsky.social & Otto Hastrup Svendsen outlines 5 key tasks #Europeans should undertake to defend themselves with less #America & deter further #Russian aggression
www.csis.org/analysis/how...
www.csis.org/analysis/how...
Reposted by Max Bergmann
Russia's latest budget figures (January–October) are out, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the budget deficit will be higher than expected. After 10 months, 80% of the budget has already been spent — compared to the normal rate of 74%.
November 11, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Russia's latest budget figures (January–October) are out, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the budget deficit will be higher than expected. After 10 months, 80% of the budget has already been spent — compared to the normal rate of 74%.
Reposted by Max Bergmann
Watch | @maxbergmann.bsky.social discusses the current role of the U.S. military in Europe’s ability to defend itself, the vulnerabilities that could result from a significant reduction of U.S. forces, and what must be done to address them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhQj...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhQj...
How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America
With the war in Ukraine ongoing and a potential drawdown of U.S. forces in Europe on the Horizon, European leaders are facing renewed pressure to strengthen ...
www.youtube.com
November 10, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Watch | @maxbergmann.bsky.social discusses the current role of the U.S. military in Europe’s ability to defend itself, the vulnerabilities that could result from a significant reduction of U.S. forces, and what must be done to address them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhQj...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhQj...