Matt Grossmann
@mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Michigan State political scientist & IPPSR Director; Hooked bookstore/cafe Co-owner; Science of Politics Podcast; New book: Polarized by Degrees
Using open-ended responses to a question about your ideal political party to place voters on an ideological spectrum & how much they think ideologically
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 20, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Using open-ended responses to a question about your ideal political party to place voters on an ideological spectrum & how much they think ideologically
Dems gain in generic ballot polls, moving toward large seat gains in historical models
Current polls: polls.decisiondeskhq.com/averages/gen...
Historical models: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Current polls: polls.decisiondeskhq.com/averages/gen...
Historical models: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
November 20, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Dems gain in generic ballot polls, moving toward large seat gains in historical models
Current polls: polls.decisiondeskhq.com/averages/gen...
Historical models: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Current polls: polls.decisiondeskhq.com/averages/gen...
Historical models: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
My comments on why (some) Democrats gave up in the shutdown fight despite Republican blame in polls:
www.dailykos.com/stories/2025...
www.dailykos.com/stories/2025...
Democrats were winning the shutdown. So why did they fold?
Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics or culture.
The blame ...
www.dailykos.com
November 17, 2025 at 1:17 PM
My comments on why (some) Democrats gave up in the shutdown fight despite Republican blame in polls:
www.dailykos.com/stories/2025...
www.dailykos.com/stories/2025...
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
and if you're curious about the book, well, you can buy the book but if you want a bit more info, here's my interview with @mattgrossmann.bsky.social www.niskanencenter.org/the-backlash...
The backlash presidency - Niskanen Center
Julia Azari finds that backlash presidents like Trump tend to follow transformative presidents like Barack Obama who represent changes to the American racial order.
www.niskanencenter.org
November 13, 2025 at 7:34 PM
and if you're curious about the book, well, you can buy the book but if you want a bit more info, here's my interview with @mattgrossmann.bsky.social www.niskanencenter.org/the-backlash...
The Backlash Presidency
Why Trump followed Obama & got impeached, in historical perspective with comparisons to Nixon after LBJ & Johnson after Lincoln
New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with @juliaazari.bsky.social
www.niskanencenter.org/the-backlash...
Why Trump followed Obama & got impeached, in historical perspective with comparisons to Nixon after LBJ & Johnson after Lincoln
New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with @juliaazari.bsky.social
www.niskanencenter.org/the-backlash...
The backlash presidency - Niskanen Center
Julia Azari finds that backlash presidents like Trump tend to follow transformative presidents like Barack Obama who represent changes to the American racial order.
www.niskanencenter.org
November 12, 2025 at 7:44 PM
The Backlash Presidency
Why Trump followed Obama & got impeached, in historical perspective with comparisons to Nixon after LBJ & Johnson after Lincoln
New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with @juliaazari.bsky.social
www.niskanencenter.org/the-backlash...
Why Trump followed Obama & got impeached, in historical perspective with comparisons to Nixon after LBJ & Johnson after Lincoln
New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with @juliaazari.bsky.social
www.niskanencenter.org/the-backlash...
Democrats improved most in elections where turnout dropped the most & in Hispanic areas
x.com/theeconomist...
x.com/theeconomist...
November 12, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Democrats improved most in elections where turnout dropped the most & in Hispanic areas
x.com/theeconomist...
x.com/theeconomist...
Racial differences in policy responsiveness are small. But policy is more responsive to whites under Republicans control, not explained by class, age, or ideology but partially by party. Republican Senators' votes also better represent white constituents.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Race, Responsiveness, and Representation in U.S. Lawmaking | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Race, Responsiveness, and Representation in U.S. Lawmaking
www.cambridge.org
November 12, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Racial differences in policy responsiveness are small. But policy is more responsive to whites under Republicans control, not explained by class, age, or ideology but partially by party. Republican Senators' votes also better represent white constituents.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
The Democrats got the shutdown they wanted, and no one is happy
My interview with Vox on why the Democrats did not win policy concessions & caved, with an outcome like prior shutdowns but difficult to learn lessons
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
My interview with Vox on why the Democrats did not win policy concessions & caved, with an outcome like prior shutdowns but difficult to learn lessons
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
The Democrats got the shutdown they wanted, and no one is happy
A political scientist explains the Democrats’ bizarre shutdown strategy.
www.yahoo.com
November 11, 2025 at 3:48 PM
The Democrats got the shutdown they wanted, and no one is happy
My interview with Vox on why the Democrats did not win policy concessions & caved, with an outcome like prior shutdowns but difficult to learn lessons
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
My interview with Vox on why the Democrats did not win policy concessions & caved, with an outcome like prior shutdowns but difficult to learn lessons
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
I'm not sure why there would be another shutdown at end of January. Some Dems have learned they are unlikely to get anything out of it & others have learned that their members will cave in the end (which means the same outcome).
November 11, 2025 at 3:03 AM
I'm not sure why there would be another shutdown at end of January. Some Dems have learned they are unlikely to get anything out of it & others have learned that their members will cave in the end (which means the same outcome).
The PR was fine. The polling was good. The ask was targeted. And it still didn't matter. You can't win real concessions so the question is whether the base likes a long fight with little to show for it or if it just angers them more because you caved in the end.
Shutting down is the easy part, starting up on your terms very hard. Maybe a lost shutdown fight would bring catharsis, but last time (DACA in 2018) it angered base & public because it was fruitless. Ask would need to be something Rep lawmakers want, not stop all Trump is doing
November 10, 2025 at 3:55 AM
The PR was fine. The polling was good. The ask was targeted. And it still didn't matter. You can't win real concessions so the question is whether the base likes a long fight with little to show for it or if it just angers them more because you caved in the end.
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
Dem voters also favored a shutdown & thought Republicans would be blamed (though more narrowly) last time they forced one (over DACA in Jan 2018):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/p...
But most said it was not worth it afterward (because they did not win anything):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/p...
www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/p...
But most said it was not worth it afterward (because they did not win anything):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/p...
CNN poll: DACA not worth a shutdown, except to Democrats | CNN Politics
With hours to go before a midnight deadline for Congress to fund the government or shut it down, most Americans say avoiding a shutdown is more important than passing a bill to maintain the program al...
www.cnn.com
September 17, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Dem voters also favored a shutdown & thought Republicans would be blamed (though more narrowly) last time they forced one (over DACA in Jan 2018):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/p...
But most said it was not worth it afterward (because they did not win anything):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/p...
www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/p...
But most said it was not worth it afterward (because they did not win anything):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/p...
Immigration-driven diversity increases innovation
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History | Journal of Political Economy: Vol 0, No ja
www.journals.uchicago.edu
November 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Immigration-driven diversity increases innovation
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
You can apply to be the Associate Director of @IPPSR here, joining me in all our endeavors (when I return from sabbatical):
careers.msu.edu/jobs/special...
careers.msu.edu/jobs/special...
Specialist - Outreach-Fixed Term - East Lansing, Michigan, United States
Position Summary
Michigan State University actively promotes a dynamic research and learning environment in which qualified individuals of differing perspectives, and cultural backgrounds pursue acade...
careers.msu.edu
November 6, 2025 at 1:55 PM
You can apply to be the Associate Director of @IPPSR here, joining me in all our endeavors (when I return from sabbatical):
careers.msu.edu/jobs/special...
careers.msu.edu/jobs/special...
Thermostatic backlash in elections stems from both 1) general incumbent dissatisfaction / responsibility for conditions & 2) response to policy overshooting & ideological direction. It often takes the form of both 1) swing voting & 2) differential turnout
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
November 5, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Thermostatic backlash in elections stems from both 1) general incumbent dissatisfaction / responsibility for conditions & 2) response to policy overshooting & ideological direction. It often takes the form of both 1) swing voting & 2) differential turnout
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Election results showed a nationalized thermostatic backlash against the party of the president, similar to 1st Trump term but with even smaller candidate & issue effects & regardless of turnout.
November 5, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Election results showed a nationalized thermostatic backlash against the party of the president, similar to 1st Trump term but with even smaller candidate & issue effects & regardless of turnout.
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
dem margin in 2025 statewide races vs 2024 pres
NJ and VA identical curves
PA and GA much higher (PA here is the partisan statewide Commonwealth Court race)
NJ and VA identical curves
PA and GA much higher (PA here is the partisan statewide Commonwealth Court race)
November 5, 2025 at 5:36 AM
dem margin in 2025 statewide races vs 2024 pres
NJ and VA identical curves
PA and GA much higher (PA here is the partisan statewide Commonwealth Court race)
NJ and VA identical curves
PA and GA much higher (PA here is the partisan statewide Commonwealth Court race)
cultural over economic coverage on cable news mobilizes viewers who would otherwise watch entertainment programming, so cable news emphasizes cultural politics much more than politicians trying to maximize vote share
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
November 2, 2025 at 3:29 PM
cultural over economic coverage on cable news mobilizes viewers who would otherwise watch entertainment programming, so cable news emphasizes cultural politics much more than politicians trying to maximize vote share
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, college–noncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
November 1, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, college–noncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Union members have polarized by education level, with non-college members now less affected by their union membership. Union members have maintained their Democratic partisanship only by becoming more educated over time
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
October 31, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Union members have polarized by education level, with non-college members now less affected by their union membership. Union members have maintained their Democratic partisanship only by becoming more educated over time
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
But that's just variance. Everyone wants to know about average bias. Here it is. Polls in the last two weeks of the campaign overstated Democratic margins by 2.7 points across all offices—smaller than the 4.6-point overestimate in 2020 and 3.1 points in 2016. But that's a Dem bias 3 cycles in a row.
October 29, 2025 at 8:24 PM
But that's just variance. Everyone wants to know about average bias. Here it is. Polls in the last two weeks of the campaign overstated Democratic margins by 2.7 points across all offices—smaller than the 4.6-point overestimate in 2020 and 3.1 points in 2016. But that's a Dem bias 3 cycles in a row.
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
October 29, 2025 at 8:16 PM
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
Big thanks to @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for the invitation to discuss my new book!
How the Money Chase Governs our Elections
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
How the money chase governs our elections - Niskanen Center
Danielle Thomsen finds that candidates are raising money earlier and in larger amounts than ever.
www.niskanencenter.org
October 30, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Big thanks to @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for the invitation to discuss my new book!
New review of Polarized by Degrees as a book of the political moment:
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
Matt Grossman and David A. Hopkins. Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics
Every so often, a book emerges just in time to capture and define a political transformation as it breaks into mainstream consciousness. E. J. Dionne’s Why
academic.oup.com
October 29, 2025 at 8:03 PM
New review of Polarized by Degrees as a book of the political moment:
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
How the Money Chase Governs our Elections
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
How the money chase governs our elections - Niskanen Center
Danielle Thomsen finds that candidates are raising money earlier and in larger amounts than ever.
www.niskanencenter.org
October 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM
How the Money Chase Governs our Elections
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
1) It is now harder for Dem candidates to differentiate themselves from the national Dem brand & ideology is only 1 among a few things making vanishingly small differences
2) Ideology & issue focus of national Dem brand is harder to move, given party network, media, & Rep attacks
2) Ideology & issue focus of national Dem brand is harder to move, given party network, media, & Rep attacks
October 29, 2025 at 5:05 PM
1) It is now harder for Dem candidates to differentiate themselves from the national Dem brand & ideology is only 1 among a few things making vanishingly small differences
2) Ideology & issue focus of national Dem brand is harder to move, given party network, media, & Rep attacks
2) Ideology & issue focus of national Dem brand is harder to move, given party network, media, & Rep attacks