Matt Grossmann
@mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Michigan State political scientist & IPPSR Director; Hooked bookstore/cafe Co-owner; Science of Politics Podcast; New book: Polarized by Degrees
Dems gain in generic ballot polls, moving toward large seat gains in historical models
Current polls: polls.decisiondeskhq.com/averages/gen...
Historical models: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Current polls: polls.decisiondeskhq.com/averages/gen...
Historical models: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
November 20, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Dems gain in generic ballot polls, moving toward large seat gains in historical models
Current polls: polls.decisiondeskhq.com/averages/gen...
Historical models: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Current polls: polls.decisiondeskhq.com/averages/gen...
Historical models: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Democrats improved most in elections where turnout dropped the most & in Hispanic areas
x.com/theeconomist...
x.com/theeconomist...
November 12, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Democrats improved most in elections where turnout dropped the most & in Hispanic areas
x.com/theeconomist...
x.com/theeconomist...
cultural over economic coverage on cable news mobilizes viewers who would otherwise watch entertainment programming, so cable news emphasizes cultural politics much more than politicians trying to maximize vote share
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
November 2, 2025 at 3:29 PM
cultural over economic coverage on cable news mobilizes viewers who would otherwise watch entertainment programming, so cable news emphasizes cultural politics much more than politicians trying to maximize vote share
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, college–noncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
November 1, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, college–noncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Union members have polarized by education level, with non-college members now less affected by their union membership. Union members have maintained their Democratic partisanship only by becoming more educated over time
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
October 31, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Union members have polarized by education level, with non-college members now less affected by their union membership. Union members have maintained their Democratic partisanship only by becoming more educated over time
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Democrats still prefer that their leaders compromise, even under Trump
news.gallup.com/poll/695690/...
news.gallup.com/poll/695690/...
October 21, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Democrats still prefer that their leaders compromise, even under Trump
news.gallup.com/poll/695690/...
news.gallup.com/poll/695690/...
Companies are hiring many more internal policy specialists than lobbyists; it is a much larger investment in politics and internal expertise
www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/HallSun25.pdf
www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/HallSun25.pdf
October 8, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Companies are hiring many more internal policy specialists than lobbyists; it is a much larger investment in politics and internal expertise
www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/HallSun25.pdf
www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/HallSun25.pdf
There is increasing political polarization in colleges' student bodies. Both liberal & conservative students prefer institutions with more like-minded peers and are willing to pay thousands of dollars more to avoid students from the other side
edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1280
edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1280
October 7, 2025 at 3:29 PM
There is increasing political polarization in colleges' student bodies. Both liberal & conservative students prefer institutions with more like-minded peers and are willing to pay thousands of dollars more to avoid students from the other side
edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1280
edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1280
Join us in person in DC or online for a live edition of the Science of Politics podcast with @mattyglesias.bsky.social & Steven Teles on whether & how the Democratic Party will revive.
Thursday, 9/25 at 9am
Thursday, 9/25 at 9am
September 11, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Join us in person in DC or online for a live edition of the Science of Politics podcast with @mattyglesias.bsky.social & Steven Teles on whether & how the Democratic Party will revive.
Thursday, 9/25 at 9am
Thursday, 9/25 at 9am
Partisan defections & vote switching continued to decline in 2024 as negative partisanship continued
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/api-g...
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/api-g...
August 29, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Partisan defections & vote switching continued to decline in 2024 as negative partisanship continued
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/api-g...
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/api-g...
Republican Members of Congress are no longer coming from elite institutions of higher education. Elite-educated legislators are more liberal. Important manifestation of the education divide between the parties & context for the current higher ed wars
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
August 27, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Republican Members of Congress are no longer coming from elite institutions of higher education. Elite-educated legislators are more liberal. Important manifestation of the education divide between the parties & context for the current higher ed wars
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
2024 non-voters also supported Trump, marking the first time in recent elections they have favored the Republican candidate, but they also supported Democratic House candidates by a small margin
goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...
goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...
August 27, 2025 at 1:50 PM
2024 non-voters also supported Trump, marking the first time in recent elections they have favored the Republican candidate, but they also supported Democratic House candidates by a small margin
goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...
goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...
AI use & coverage are growing quickly & recently across academic fields
arxiv.org/pdf/2405.15828
arxiv.org/pdf/2405.15828
August 22, 2025 at 11:23 PM
AI use & coverage are growing quickly & recently across academic fields
arxiv.org/pdf/2405.15828
arxiv.org/pdf/2405.15828
But each re-run of the model changes the series fairly dramatically. Here is the 2022 version. The stepped leftward trajectory since the 1980s from 2022 is no longer evident. In the new measure, the US public was most liberal in the early 1960s & 1991.
August 22, 2025 at 10:38 PM
But each re-run of the model changes the series fairly dramatically. Here is the 2022 version. The stepped leftward trajectory since the 1980s from 2022 is no longer evident. In the new measure, the US public was most liberal in the early 1960s & 1991.
Stimson updated policy mood, a measure of the public's overall liberal (higher) or conservative (lower) policy views; it shows no conservative move under Biden after a large liberal move under Trump
stimson.web.unc.edu/data/
stimson.web.unc.edu/data/
August 22, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Stimson updated policy mood, a measure of the public's overall liberal (higher) or conservative (lower) policy views; it shows no conservative move under Biden after a large liberal move under Trump
stimson.web.unc.edu/data/
stimson.web.unc.edu/data/
Global welfare state expansion has moved to new areas like early childhood in recent decades, but changes in focus are more pronounced than a global rise & fall
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
August 14, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Global welfare state expansion has moved to new areas like early childhood in recent decades, but changes in focus are more pronounced than a global rise & fall
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Texas redraw would give Republicans more of a national advantage in districting, but from a low point in their advantage relative to the last few decades (though it may matter more now that fewer candidates substantially outperform their party)
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/u...
August 2, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Texas redraw would give Republicans more of a national advantage in districting, but from a low point in their advantage relative to the last few decades (though it may matter more now that fewer candidates substantially outperform their party)
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/u...
District courts are ruling against Trump administration, but not the Supreme Court
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-suprem...
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-suprem...
July 21, 2025 at 12:50 PM
District courts are ruling against Trump administration, but not the Supreme Court
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-suprem...
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-suprem...
Pew & Catalist disagree about the education divide by race, not only in 2024 but in prior elections. Pew shows earlier divides, so not as much continuation of the trend. Catalist shows extension to minority groups in 2024 & a slower build.
July 8, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Pew & Catalist disagree about the education divide by race, not only in 2024 but in prior elections. Pew shows earlier divides, so not as much continuation of the trend. Catalist shows extension to minority groups in 2024 & a slower build.
Negative partisanship continued in 2024
goodauthority.org/news/america...
goodauthority.org/news/america...
June 30, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Negative partisanship continued in 2024
goodauthority.org/news/america...
goodauthority.org/news/america...
Popular ChatGPT keywords suggest AI use for writing political science academic articles
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
June 13, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Popular ChatGPT keywords suggest AI use for writing political science academic articles
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
NSF has cut new grants by half so far this year (in addition to cancelling grants in progress). It's still unclear whether they will be forced to spend remaining appropriated funds quickly at the end of the fiscal year.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
May 26, 2025 at 12:51 PM
NSF has cut new grants by half so far this year (in addition to cancelling grants in progress). It's still unclear whether they will be forced to spend remaining appropriated funds quickly at the end of the fiscal year.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Empirical papers have steadily replaced theoretical papers (& simulation) in economics:
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
May 26, 2025 at 3:22 AM
Empirical papers have steadily replaced theoretical papers (& simulation) in economics:
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Trump has gained ground in 3 consecutive elections across large parts of the nation, concentrated in the least educated, poorest, & most non-white counties. Democrats have gained consecutively in only a small set of mostly educated, rich, white counties:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
May 25, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Trump has gained ground in 3 consecutive elections across large parts of the nation, concentrated in the least educated, poorest, & most non-white counties. Democrats have gained consecutively in only a small set of mostly educated, rich, white counties:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
The diploma divide extended to Latino, Asian, & other race voters in 2024 but is still not present among Black voters or as large as for white voters
catalist.us/whathappened...
catalist.us/whathappened...
May 22, 2025 at 1:06 AM
The diploma divide extended to Latino, Asian, & other race voters in 2024 but is still not present among Black voters or as large as for white voters
catalist.us/whathappened...
catalist.us/whathappened...