My preferred view is that public is center-left on policy & representation but center-right on symbols & orientations. Other common alternatives are (1) public is centrist if measured properly, (2) public is center left but bigotry moves right, & (3) Dems strategy is bad/unlucky

Views of ideology in American public opinion should explain why the parties have long been at rough parity in candidate support. This seems to offer a useful theory: most people are center-left on policy but a large proportion of those that are judge on performance, not policy

and if you're curious about the book, well, you can buy the book but if you want a bit more info, here's my interview with @mattgrossmann.bsky.social www.niskanencenter.org/the-backlash...

The shutdown didn't achieve anything. We were not particularly close to ending the filibuster or funding ACA subsidies, just a longer shutdown. But instigating parties don't usually learn from failure because the argument is always that you could have fought harder & longer.

Exit polls & initial voter data agree that differential partisan turnout is a, but not the main, factor driving VA & NJ results:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/u...
I would instead infer that (1) is overstated. It doesn't take many swing voters to shift aggregate outcomes when they move the same way (2)

As usual, the 2025 elections featured both a partisan turnout advantage & swing voters (including Hispanics) moving against the party of the president. Initial evidence from VA & NJ show most change came from swing voting (as is normal):
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/u...