Lucas Guttenberg
@lucasguttenberg.bsky.social
Director 🇪🇺, Bertelsmann Stiftung, Berlin
Ex-BMWK, Jacques Delors Centre, ECB
Ex-BMWK, Jacques Delors Centre, ECB
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
Für die Zeit haben wir mit @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social und @sandertordoir.bsky.social aufgeschrieben, was das Problem der europäischen Autoindustrie ist, warum Denkmalschutz für Verbrenner die schlechtesten aller Antworten wäre - und was die EU stattdessen tun kann.
www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2...
www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2...
Europäische Autoindustrie: Wie der Autoindustrie wirklich geholfen werden kann
Kippt das EU-Verbrenneraus, verliert Europa endgültig den Anschluss auf dem E-Automarkt. Die Politik sollte lieber die Förderung verbessern. Zwei Vorschläge
www.zeit.de
October 28, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Für die Zeit haben wir mit @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social und @sandertordoir.bsky.social aufgeschrieben, was das Problem der europäischen Autoindustrie ist, warum Denkmalschutz für Verbrenner die schlechtesten aller Antworten wäre - und was die EU stattdessen tun kann.
www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2...
www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2...
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
Great thread by Nils on our new paper.
Joint work - Germany, France and the other member-states can either do a coordinated demand push for EU built cars or descent into a chaos of regulatory roll-backs and bailouts.
It really is hang together or separately for European cars.
Joint work - Germany, France and the other member-states can either do a coordinated demand push for EU built cars or descent into a chaos of regulatory roll-backs and bailouts.
It really is hang together or separately for European cars.
The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
October 23, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Great thread by Nils on our new paper.
Joint work - Germany, France and the other member-states can either do a coordinated demand push for EU built cars or descent into a chaos of regulatory roll-backs and bailouts.
It really is hang together or separately for European cars.
Joint work - Germany, France and the other member-states can either do a coordinated demand push for EU built cars or descent into a chaos of regulatory roll-backs and bailouts.
It really is hang together or separately for European cars.
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
October 23, 2025 at 8:04 AM
The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
I hope the Commission made it clear that the €600 billion figure of course refers to current prices - and that most of it will be mobilised through EIB loans, with a leverage ratio of approximately 1:19.
Trump on his EU trade deal: "The details are $600 billion to invest in anything I want. Anything. I can do anything I want with it."
August 5, 2025 at 1:28 PM
I hope the Commission made it clear that the €600 billion figure of course refers to current prices - and that most of it will be mobilised through EIB loans, with a leverage ratio of approximately 1:19.
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
Just a few weeks to go before the EU dives into what will likely be a bruising battle over its next budget.
@romyha.bsky.social, @eulaliarubio.bsky.social, @lindnerjs.bsky.social l and I took a closer look at the Commission’s proposal.
We think successful negotiations now hinge on four things:
@romyha.bsky.social, @eulaliarubio.bsky.social, @lindnerjs.bsky.social l and I took a closer look at the Commission’s proposal.
We think successful negotiations now hinge on four things:
Ripe for Reform – What’s in the EU Budget Proposal and What Should Come Next
On 16 July 2025, the European Commission unveiled its proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028-35, kicking off what promises to be a highly fraught and marathon set of nego...
www.delorscentre.eu
August 1, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Just a few weeks to go before the EU dives into what will likely be a bruising battle over its next budget.
@romyha.bsky.social, @eulaliarubio.bsky.social, @lindnerjs.bsky.social l and I took a closer look at the Commission’s proposal.
We think successful negotiations now hinge on four things:
@romyha.bsky.social, @eulaliarubio.bsky.social, @lindnerjs.bsky.social l and I took a closer look at the Commission’s proposal.
We think successful negotiations now hinge on four things:
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
"A divided EU can still accept a bad deal that is better than no deal. But only a united EU with a clearly mandated Commission can engage in a sustained trade war and weather the short-term domestic costs."
Many seem surprised about the EU-US trade deal. But this was not an accident and it would likely happen the same way if we did it all over again. Read my colleague Etienne Höra (@etiennehoera.d-64.social)'s latest on the structural drivers of EU trade policy that have led to a bad deal:
No Accident: Four Structural Reasons Why the EU Did Not Get a Better Trade Deal
As details on Sunday’s EU-US trade deal emerge, Europeans are split in two camps. Some believe the 15 percent tariff ceiling on most products is the best the EU could get from President Donald Trump’s...
bst-europe.eu
July 30, 2025 at 1:31 PM
"A divided EU can still accept a bad deal that is better than no deal. But only a united EU with a clearly mandated Commission can engage in a sustained trade war and weather the short-term domestic costs."
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
This is good.
You can't expect the Jeunesse d'Esch to play like Real Madrid.
You can't expect the Jeunesse d'Esch to play like Real Madrid.
Many seem surprised about the EU-US trade deal. But this was not an accident and it would likely happen the same way if we did it all over again. Read my colleague Etienne Höra (@etiennehoera.d-64.social)'s latest on the structural drivers of EU trade policy that have led to a bad deal:
No Accident: Four Structural Reasons Why the EU Did Not Get a Better Trade Deal
As details on Sunday’s EU-US trade deal emerge, Europeans are split in two camps. Some believe the 15 percent tariff ceiling on most products is the best the EU could get from President Donald Trump’s...
bst-europe.eu
July 30, 2025 at 9:41 AM
This is good.
You can't expect the Jeunesse d'Esch to play like Real Madrid.
You can't expect the Jeunesse d'Esch to play like Real Madrid.
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
15% tariffs, breaches of WTO rules, more tech dependency – the US deal is a far cry from what the EU wanted. This was not a one-off accident, but exposes longstanding structural weaknesses in EU trade policy that will affect any future negotiation. My analysis🧵 bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...
No Accident: Four Structural Reasons Why the EU Did Not Get a Better Trade Deal
As details on Sunday’s EU-US trade deal emerge, Europeans are split in two camps. Some believe the 15 percent tariff ceiling on most products is the best the EU could get from President Donald Trump’s...
bst-europe.eu
July 29, 2025 at 1:36 PM
15% tariffs, breaches of WTO rules, more tech dependency – the US deal is a far cry from what the EU wanted. This was not a one-off accident, but exposes longstanding structural weaknesses in EU trade policy that will affect any future negotiation. My analysis🧵 bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...
Many seem surprised about the EU-US trade deal. But this was not an accident and it would likely happen the same way if we did it all over again. Read my colleague Etienne Höra (@etiennehoera.d-64.social)'s latest on the structural drivers of EU trade policy that have led to a bad deal:
No Accident: Four Structural Reasons Why the EU Did Not Get a Better Trade Deal
As details on Sunday’s EU-US trade deal emerge, Europeans are split in two camps. Some believe the 15 percent tariff ceiling on most products is the best the EU could get from President Donald Trump’s...
bst-europe.eu
July 29, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Many seem surprised about the EU-US trade deal. But this was not an accident and it would likely happen the same way if we did it all over again. Read my colleague Etienne Höra (@etiennehoera.d-64.social)'s latest on the structural drivers of EU trade policy that have led to a bad deal:
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
Well, « shadow of plausible deniability » is a much nicer way of saying the above. bsky.app/profile/luca...
Excellent and honestly shameful example of the shadow of plausible deniability: Member states (and of course France among them) gave the Commission clear directions and are now running away from the results, blaming the Commission instead. At least own it collectively, it makes us look less stupid.
July 29, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Well, « shadow of plausible deniability » is a much nicer way of saying the above. bsky.app/profile/luca...
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
Excellent and honestly shameful example of the shadow of plausible deniability: Member states (and of course France among them) gave the Commission clear directions and are now running away from the results, blaming the Commission instead. At least own it collectively, it makes us look less stupid.
July 28, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Excellent and honestly shameful example of the shadow of plausible deniability: Member states (and of course France among them) gave the Commission clear directions and are now running away from the results, blaming the Commission instead. At least own it collectively, it makes us look less stupid.
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
Well, it is mainly France hitting out - Merz supports the deal but points out it hurts EU exporters.
Be that as it may, this is very disingenous: the contours of the deal we were headed for was clear for weeks. The two most powerful EU member-states could've stopped it.
www.ft.com/content/00ec...
Be that as it may, this is very disingenous: the contours of the deal we were headed for was clear for weeks. The two most powerful EU member-states could've stopped it.
www.ft.com/content/00ec...
Germany and France hit out at EU-US deal
Euro slides as investors bet that long-awaited trade agreement will hurt Eurozone economy
www.ft.com
July 28, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Well, it is mainly France hitting out - Merz supports the deal but points out it hurts EU exporters.
Be that as it may, this is very disingenous: the contours of the deal we were headed for was clear for weeks. The two most powerful EU member-states could've stopped it.
www.ft.com/content/00ec...
Be that as it may, this is very disingenous: the contours of the deal we were headed for was clear for weeks. The two most powerful EU member-states could've stopped it.
www.ft.com/content/00ec...
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
I don't want to blow anyone's mind with insight behind the curtain of international relations here, but in multi-billion dollar deals between gigantic economies, it's pretty useful to have agreed clarity on what the fuck's actually been agreed.
July 28, 2025 at 8:30 PM
I don't want to blow anyone's mind with insight behind the curtain of international relations here, but in multi-billion dollar deals between gigantic economies, it's pretty useful to have agreed clarity on what the fuck's actually been agreed.
Excellent and honestly shameful example of the shadow of plausible deniability: Member states (and of course France among them) gave the Commission clear directions and are now running away from the results, blaming the Commission instead. At least own it collectively, it makes us look less stupid.
July 28, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Excellent and honestly shameful example of the shadow of plausible deniability: Member states (and of course France among them) gave the Commission clear directions and are now running away from the results, blaming the Commission instead. At least own it collectively, it makes us look less stupid.
EU trade policy has the Commission operating largely on its own with member states giving guidance but staying in the shadow of plausible deniability. That might be the right setup for day-to-day trade technocracy. It's definitely not the setup for a full-scale hyperpolitical trade war with the US.
July 28, 2025 at 11:55 AM
EU trade policy has the Commission operating largely on its own with member states giving guidance but staying in the shadow of plausible deniability. That might be the right setup for day-to-day trade technocracy. It's definitely not the setup for a full-scale hyperpolitical trade war with the US.
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
Important takeaway for the next round of this: by itself, COM isn’t equipped to manage the domestic politics of this, it needs stronger backing from capitals. Convenient for member states to hide behind it and then blame it for the outcome (sometimes more than they blame the US I feel).
I agree, but COM was also caught between a rock and a hard place: I am not sure member state governments, and in particular the one in Berlin, would have had the polical stamina for a full-scale trade war. And of course they would have blamed the COM for all the collateral damage it would have had.
I think European leaders - both national and in the EU - are underestimating what it will do to their publics to be humilated by Trump.
Like the NATO summit and Rutte's 'Daddy' strategy, mabye the outcome could have been worse. But losing pride and being humilated is also a price that is paid.
Like the NATO summit and Rutte's 'Daddy' strategy, mabye the outcome could have been worse. But losing pride and being humilated is also a price that is paid.
July 28, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Important takeaway for the next round of this: by itself, COM isn’t equipped to manage the domestic politics of this, it needs stronger backing from capitals. Convenient for member states to hide behind it and then blame it for the outcome (sometimes more than they blame the US I feel).
I agree, but COM was also caught between a rock and a hard place: I am not sure member state governments, and in particular the one in Berlin, would have had the polical stamina for a full-scale trade war. And of course they would have blamed the COM for all the collateral damage it would have had.
I think European leaders - both national and in the EU - are underestimating what it will do to their publics to be humilated by Trump.
Like the NATO summit and Rutte's 'Daddy' strategy, mabye the outcome could have been worse. But losing pride and being humilated is also a price that is paid.
Like the NATO summit and Rutte's 'Daddy' strategy, mabye the outcome could have been worse. But losing pride and being humilated is also a price that is paid.
My latest on the spectacularly one-sided EU-US trade deal.
July 28, 2025 at 9:53 AM
I agree, but COM was also caught between a rock and a hard place: I am not sure member state governments, and in particular the one in Berlin, would have had the polical stamina for a full-scale trade war. And of course they would have blamed the COM for all the collateral damage it would have had.
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
Stimmt. Ich glaube, manche sehen die Risiken durchaus – sind aber defaitistisch.
Warum glauben so viele in Berlin, Deutschland könne Chinas Industriepolitik nichts entgegensetzen?
Dabei haben wir riesige fiskalische Spielräume und eine starke industrielle Basis.
1/
Warum glauben so viele in Berlin, Deutschland könne Chinas Industriepolitik nichts entgegensetzen?
Dabei haben wir riesige fiskalische Spielräume und eine starke industrielle Basis.
1/
Der Kollege Tordoir macht sich gerade sehr verdient damit, immer wieder auf die Gefahren des zweiten China-Schocks für Deutschland hinzuweisen. Mein Gefühl ist allerdings, dass er damit nicht ausreichend gehört wird...
Deutsche Exporte nach China stürzen ab. Ein transatlantisches Handelsabkommen könnte Europas Industrie zusätzlich schwächen. Der zweite China-Schock trifft – aber ist kein Naturgesetz. Was das für Deutschland bedeutet und wie eine Antwort aussehen kann, schreibe ich hier:
www.kas.de/de/web/die-p...
www.kas.de/de/web/die-p...
July 24, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Stimmt. Ich glaube, manche sehen die Risiken durchaus – sind aber defaitistisch.
Warum glauben so viele in Berlin, Deutschland könne Chinas Industriepolitik nichts entgegensetzen?
Dabei haben wir riesige fiskalische Spielräume und eine starke industrielle Basis.
1/
Warum glauben so viele in Berlin, Deutschland könne Chinas Industriepolitik nichts entgegensetzen?
Dabei haben wir riesige fiskalische Spielräume und eine starke industrielle Basis.
1/
Der Kollege Tordoir macht sich gerade sehr verdient damit, immer wieder auf die Gefahren des zweiten China-Schocks für Deutschland hinzuweisen. Mein Gefühl ist allerdings, dass er damit nicht ausreichend gehört wird...
Deutsche Exporte nach China stürzen ab. Ein transatlantisches Handelsabkommen könnte Europas Industrie zusätzlich schwächen. Der zweite China-Schock trifft – aber ist kein Naturgesetz. Was das für Deutschland bedeutet und wie eine Antwort aussehen kann, schreibe ich hier:
www.kas.de/de/web/die-p...
www.kas.de/de/web/die-p...
July 24, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Der Kollege Tordoir macht sich gerade sehr verdient damit, immer wieder auf die Gefahren des zweiten China-Schocks für Deutschland hinzuweisen. Mein Gefühl ist allerdings, dass er damit nicht ausreichend gehört wird...
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
Ahead of tomorrow’s EU-China summit, the EU faces a tough balancing act between economic interests and geopolitical concerns.
What should Brussels do and what should it avoid?
This new piece by @corajungbluth.bsky.social lays out the dos and don’ts:
bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...
What should Brussels do and what should it avoid?
This new piece by @corajungbluth.bsky.social lays out the dos and don’ts:
bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...
Dos and Don’ts for the EU-China Summit
EU-China relations are experiencing a period of rising tensions. There is no reason for optimism that this will change any time soon. European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen emphasised in ...
bst-europe.eu
July 23, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Ahead of tomorrow’s EU-China summit, the EU faces a tough balancing act between economic interests and geopolitical concerns.
What should Brussels do and what should it avoid?
This new piece by @corajungbluth.bsky.social lays out the dos and don’ts:
bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...
What should Brussels do and what should it avoid?
This new piece by @corajungbluth.bsky.social lays out the dos and don’ts:
bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
Muss Deutschland jetzt viel mehr in den EU-Haushalt zahlen und ist Deutschland gar der Angeschmierte beim Vorschlag der EU-Kommission zum neuen Mehrjährigen Finanzrahmen? Die Antwort darauf ist kompliziert - aber schlecht kommt Deutschland sicher nicht weg.
Warum? Stay with me:
Warum? Stay with me:
July 21, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Muss Deutschland jetzt viel mehr in den EU-Haushalt zahlen und ist Deutschland gar der Angeschmierte beim Vorschlag der EU-Kommission zum neuen Mehrjährigen Finanzrahmen? Die Antwort darauf ist kompliziert - aber schlecht kommt Deutschland sicher nicht weg.
Warum? Stay with me:
Warum? Stay with me:
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
Exzellenter Servicethread - die Sache mit deutschen Beiträgen zum EU-Haushalt ist etwas komplizierter, als die grossen Überschriften der letzten Woche vermuten lassen.
Muss Deutschland jetzt viel mehr in den EU-Haushalt zahlen und ist Deutschland gar der Angeschmierte beim Vorschlag der EU-Kommission zum neuen Mehrjährigen Finanzrahmen? Die Antwort darauf ist kompliziert - aber schlecht kommt Deutschland sicher nicht weg.
Warum? Stay with me:
Warum? Stay with me:
July 21, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Exzellenter Servicethread - die Sache mit deutschen Beiträgen zum EU-Haushalt ist etwas komplizierter, als die grossen Überschriften der letzten Woche vermuten lassen.
Muss Deutschland jetzt viel mehr in den EU-Haushalt zahlen und ist Deutschland gar der Angeschmierte beim Vorschlag der EU-Kommission zum neuen Mehrjährigen Finanzrahmen? Die Antwort darauf ist kompliziert - aber schlecht kommt Deutschland sicher nicht weg.
Warum? Stay with me:
Warum? Stay with me:
July 21, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Muss Deutschland jetzt viel mehr in den EU-Haushalt zahlen und ist Deutschland gar der Angeschmierte beim Vorschlag der EU-Kommission zum neuen Mehrjährigen Finanzrahmen? Die Antwort darauf ist kompliziert - aber schlecht kommt Deutschland sicher nicht weg.
Warum? Stay with me:
Warum? Stay with me:
Was der Kollege Redeker sagt👇
Die Bundesregierung sagt, Sie könne den Kommissions-Vorschlag zum neuen EU-Haushalt nicht akzeptieren, weil ein "umfassender Aufwuchs" in Zeiten der Konsolidierung nationaler Haushalte nicht vermittelbar sei.
Ich halte das aus ein paar Gründen für keine kluge deutsche Position:
Ich halte das aus ein paar Gründen für keine kluge deutsche Position:
July 17, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Was der Kollege Redeker sagt👇
Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg
The Commission proposal for the next long-term EU budget aka MFF just dropped. Its overall volume increases very moderately, but the proposal contains sweeping changes to the way the EU spends money and to budget's priorities.
Here is my first quick take:
Here is my first quick take:
July 16, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The Commission proposal for the next long-term EU budget aka MFF just dropped. Its overall volume increases very moderately, but the proposal contains sweeping changes to the way the EU spends money and to budget's priorities.
Here is my first quick take:
Here is my first quick take: