Leila Davis
@leiladavis1.bsky.social
Economist at Umass Boston. Wisconsinite.
Reposted by Leila Davis
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Reposted by Leila Davis
I never would have imagined that a state Surgeon General, in 2025, would vow to end all vaccine mandates. Florida is an international tourist destination. This will not end well for any of us.
September 3, 2025 at 5:29 PM
I never would have imagined that a state Surgeon General, in 2025, would vow to end all vaccine mandates. Florida is an international tourist destination. This will not end well for any of us.
Reposted by Leila Davis
My new Politico Op Ed is live! Will send it out to my email list after I pick up lunch.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Opinion | Why Markets Aren’t Freaking Out Over Trump’s Attack on the Fed
And why that’s a big mistake.
www.politico.com
August 26, 2025 at 6:44 PM
My new Politico Op Ed is live! Will send it out to my email list after I pick up lunch.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Reposted by Leila Davis
I think it's a mistake to think of the firing of Lisa Cook primarily in terms of Central Bank Independence, and its impact on the inflation rate.
The most significant issue is also more basic: it's the rule of law.
The most significant issue is also more basic: it's the rule of law.
August 26, 2025 at 1:25 AM
I think it's a mistake to think of the firing of Lisa Cook primarily in terms of Central Bank Independence, and its impact on the inflation rate.
The most significant issue is also more basic: it's the rule of law.
The most significant issue is also more basic: it's the rule of law.
Reposted by Leila Davis
This is the make or break moment for Powell's @federalreserve.gov. If they do not defend Lisa Cook and treat her as still on the Board, the fight over the Fed as an independent agency will officially be over. see my Friday piece.
www.crisesnotes.com/trump-vs-pow...
www.crisesnotes.com/trump-vs-pow...
August 26, 2025 at 12:49 AM
This is the make or break moment for Powell's @federalreserve.gov. If they do not defend Lisa Cook and treat her as still on the Board, the fight over the Fed as an independent agency will officially be over. see my Friday piece.
www.crisesnotes.com/trump-vs-pow...
www.crisesnotes.com/trump-vs-pow...
Reposted by Leila Davis
Just received this statement from Lisa Cook:
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
President Trump said he is firing Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, "effective immediately." It's his most direct assault yet on Fed independence -- and a step that it is far from clear he can legally take.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/u... #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/u... #EconSky
Trump Says He Is Removing Lisa Cook From Federal Reserve Board
www.nytimes.com
August 26, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Just received this statement from Lisa Cook:
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
Reposted by Leila Davis
“It is inconceivable that the United States is once again building concentration camps, denying the lessons learned 80 years ago,” Ann Burroughs, president and CEO of the Japanese American National Museum, said in a statement to HuffPost. www.huffpost.com/entry/former...
Former WWII Internment Camp Turned Into Immigrant Detention Center Sparks Outrage From Activists
"It is inconceivable that the United States is once again building concentration camps, denying the lessons learned 80 years ago," Ann Burroughs said.
www.huffpost.com
August 21, 2025 at 3:23 AM
“It is inconceivable that the United States is once again building concentration camps, denying the lessons learned 80 years ago,” Ann Burroughs, president and CEO of the Japanese American National Museum, said in a statement to HuffPost. www.huffpost.com/entry/former...
Reposted by Leila Davis
YES to the expanded service and YES to this framing for it:
"We're doing this to ensure that the people that need to use the system can use the system. We're a public transit agency. We do it to provide a public service."
www.wbur.org/news/2025/08...
"We're doing this to ensure that the people that need to use the system can use the system. We're a public transit agency. We do it to provide a public service."
www.wbur.org/news/2025/08...
MBTA will again experiment with late-night service
As part of a new schedule that takes effect Aug. 24, the T plans to extend evening service by almost an hour on all four subway lines on Friday and Saturday nights and on a handful of bus routes, incl...
www.wbur.org
August 13, 2025 at 11:49 AM
YES to the expanded service and YES to this framing for it:
"We're doing this to ensure that the people that need to use the system can use the system. We're a public transit agency. We do it to provide a public service."
www.wbur.org/news/2025/08...
"We're doing this to ensure that the people that need to use the system can use the system. We're a public transit agency. We do it to provide a public service."
www.wbur.org/news/2025/08...
Reposted by Leila Davis
we all know that the proof for the administration that an institution is not implementing affirmative action will be the percentage of nonwhite admits. the lower the better. any more than a smattering of black and Hispanic students will be evidence of illegal discrimination (against whites)
President Trump is expected to sign a directive mandating universities provide admissions data to prove they are not implementing affirmative action policies, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt posts on X.
Trump to require universities to hand over admissions data on race
The move comes after Ivy League universities Columbia and Brown struck settlements that require them to release information about applicants’ race.
nbcnews.to
August 8, 2025 at 12:11 AM
we all know that the proof for the administration that an institution is not implementing affirmative action will be the percentage of nonwhite admits. the lower the better. any more than a smattering of black and Hispanic students will be evidence of illegal discrimination (against whites)
Reposted by Leila Davis
I am increasingly convinced that the economic impact of tariffs is most likely to show up as a fall in business profits, a collapse investment spending, and a recession - deflation, not inflation.
Forgot to post these yesterday.
www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
July 29, 2025 at 2:20 PM
I am increasingly convinced that the economic impact of tariffs is most likely to show up as a fall in business profits, a collapse investment spending, and a recession - deflation, not inflation.
Reposted by Leila Davis
Regardless of politics, economists should make clear: we do not condone reckless attacks on our statistical agencies, including by our fellow economists.
The staff at these agencies work painstakingly to collect the data our democracy and economy depend on.
The staff at these agencies work painstakingly to collect the data our democracy and economy depend on.
Kevin Hassett suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics rigged the 2012 election for Barack Obama
August 6, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Regardless of politics, economists should make clear: we do not condone reckless attacks on our statistical agencies, including by our fellow economists.
The staff at these agencies work painstakingly to collect the data our democracy and economy depend on.
The staff at these agencies work painstakingly to collect the data our democracy and economy depend on.
Reposted by Leila Davis
Important to remember that because of the incredible work of government statisticians, initial BLS employment estimates have become MORE accurate.
Its revisions are now smaller than those from years past
excellent figure from @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
Its revisions are now smaller than those from years past
excellent figure from @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
August 4, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Important to remember that because of the incredible work of government statisticians, initial BLS employment estimates have become MORE accurate.
Its revisions are now smaller than those from years past
excellent figure from @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
Its revisions are now smaller than those from years past
excellent figure from @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
Reposted by Leila Davis
Why do the jobs numbers get revised?
our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months
1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly
Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N
www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months
1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly
Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N
www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
August 2, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Why do the jobs numbers get revised?
our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months
1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly
Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N
www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months
1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly
Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N
www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
Reposted by Leila Davis
The media coverage of the dismissal of the BLS commissioner as another “wild time in Trumpland” shows that the media is more committed to entertainment than news. Any reputable news organization should report what the BLS does, why it is important, and why its work should not be politicized.
August 2, 2025 at 3:13 PM
The media coverage of the dismissal of the BLS commissioner as another “wild time in Trumpland” shows that the media is more committed to entertainment than news. Any reputable news organization should report what the BLS does, why it is important, and why its work should not be politicized.
Reposted by Leila Davis
Big news in today's #jobs report are the revisions. The labor market is much weaker than originally reported the last two months. While payrolls grew 73k in July, May and June data were revised down a total of 258k to 19k and 14k, respectively, bringing 3-month average growth down to 35k.
#EconSky
#EconSky
August 1, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Reposted by Leila Davis
New federal data shows that vaccination rates among American children entering kindergarten fell during the 2024-25 school year, extending a worrying trend that began during the Covid-19 pandemic.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/h...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/h...
Childhood Vaccination Rates Have Dropped Again, C.D.C. Data Shows
www.nytimes.com
July 31, 2025 at 9:54 PM
New federal data shows that vaccination rates among American children entering kindergarten fell during the 2024-25 school year, extending a worrying trend that began during the Covid-19 pandemic.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/h...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/h...
Reposted by Leila Davis
Indiana is 1 of 6 red states that banned purchases of sugary drinks & candy with SNAP funding. Will this make SNAP so complex that smaller stores won't take it? Does restricting SNAP make sense without healthier options? @emmarjanssen.bsky.social traveled to Gary & E.Chicago for this great feature.
Do SNAP Food Restrictions Help Health, or Punish Poor People?
Indiana is among several states restricting the purchase of sugary foods with nutrition assistance funds.
prospect.org
July 30, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Indiana is 1 of 6 red states that banned purchases of sugary drinks & candy with SNAP funding. Will this make SNAP so complex that smaller stores won't take it? Does restricting SNAP make sense without healthier options? @emmarjanssen.bsky.social traveled to Gary & E.Chicago for this great feature.
Reposted by Leila Davis
This footage of Trump and Federal Reserve chairman Powell at the Federal Reserve construction site is absolutely amazing. What a time to be alive.
July 24, 2025 at 9:24 PM
This footage of Trump and Federal Reserve chairman Powell at the Federal Reserve construction site is absolutely amazing. What a time to be alive.
Reposted by Leila Davis
The government of Israel is exterminating every man, woman and child in Gaza. And our governments, and most leaders of liberal institutions in "the West" - parties both left and right, the press, universities - are doing all they can to support this. This is the central political fact of our time.
July 24, 2025 at 2:35 PM
The government of Israel is exterminating every man, woman and child in Gaza. And our governments, and most leaders of liberal institutions in "the West" - parties both left and right, the press, universities - are doing all they can to support this. This is the central political fact of our time.
Reposted by Leila Davis
Final CBO score of the "big beautiful bill" is out
Largest Medicaid cuts ever - in fact, at least 4 times the size of the previous largest; $894-$990 bn cut
Kicks 10 million off health insurance
Largest SNAP cuts ever, $197 bn cut
Still increases the deficit by $3.4 trillion from huge tax cuts
Largest Medicaid cuts ever - in fact, at least 4 times the size of the previous largest; $894-$990 bn cut
Kicks 10 million off health insurance
Largest SNAP cuts ever, $197 bn cut
Still increases the deficit by $3.4 trillion from huge tax cuts
July 21, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Final CBO score of the "big beautiful bill" is out
Largest Medicaid cuts ever - in fact, at least 4 times the size of the previous largest; $894-$990 bn cut
Kicks 10 million off health insurance
Largest SNAP cuts ever, $197 bn cut
Still increases the deficit by $3.4 trillion from huge tax cuts
Largest Medicaid cuts ever - in fact, at least 4 times the size of the previous largest; $894-$990 bn cut
Kicks 10 million off health insurance
Largest SNAP cuts ever, $197 bn cut
Still increases the deficit by $3.4 trillion from huge tax cuts
Reposted by Leila Davis
Top quintile driving growth:
"much of the so-called resilience of the American consumer over the past few years has been propped up by those at the top, while the majority of households have been quietly tightening their belts."
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
"much of the so-called resilience of the American consumer over the past few years has been propped up by those at the top, while the majority of households have been quietly tightening their belts."
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Who’s Really Been Driving Retail Spending
The unbearable slightness of aggregate economic data.
www.bloomberg.com
July 21, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Top quintile driving growth:
"much of the so-called resilience of the American consumer over the past few years has been propped up by those at the top, while the majority of households have been quietly tightening their belts."
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
"much of the so-called resilience of the American consumer over the past few years has been propped up by those at the top, while the majority of households have been quietly tightening their belts."
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Reposted by Leila Davis
"A top Boston immigration official testified in federal court Tuesday that supervisors instructed him to prioritize the arrest of Tufts PhD student Rümeysa Öztürk, the first time he’s ever received such a directive from ICE in his career working at the agency." www.bostonglobe.com/2025/07/15/m...
In court testimony, Boston ICE official recalls pressure from above to arrest Rümeysa Öztürk - The Boston Globe
"I can’t recall a time that its come top down like this with a visa revocation," the ICE official said in Boston court on Tuesday.
www.bostonglobe.com
July 16, 2025 at 1:55 AM
"A top Boston immigration official testified in federal court Tuesday that supervisors instructed him to prioritize the arrest of Tufts PhD student Rümeysa Öztürk, the first time he’s ever received such a directive from ICE in his career working at the agency." www.bostonglobe.com/2025/07/15/m...
Reposted by Leila Davis
this was a fun @moreperfectunion.bsky.social video to be a part of
"Corporations were largely reinvesting in their innovation process, and in some cases, because of strong unions, paying their workers living wages." - Senior Fellow @lenorepalladino.bsky.social
In the 70s, prioritizing shareholders gained momentum, and workers lose. www.youtube.com/watch?v=MG6t...
In the 70s, prioritizing shareholders gained momentum, and workers lose. www.youtube.com/watch?v=MG6t...
How the Big Beautiful Bill Will Transfer Trillions From Workers to Wall Street
YouTube video by More Perfect Union
www.youtube.com
July 15, 2025 at 5:44 PM
this was a fun @moreperfectunion.bsky.social video to be a part of
Reposted by Leila Davis
Since April 4, #SCOTUS has issued 15 rulings on 17 emergency applications filed by Trump (three birthright citizenship apps were consolidated).
It has granted relief to Trump ... in all 15 rulings.
It has written majority opinions in only 3.
Today's order is the 7th with no explanation *at all.*
It has granted relief to Trump ... in all 15 rulings.
It has written majority opinions in only 3.
Today's order is the 7th with no explanation *at all.*
Here we go again: Over an acerbic dissenting opinion by Justice Sotomayor (joined in full by Justices Kagan and Jackson), #SCOTUS, with no explanation, grants a stay in the Department of Education RIFs case—effectively clearing the way for the Trump administration to dismantle much of the agency:
www.supremecourt.gov
July 14, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Since April 4, #SCOTUS has issued 15 rulings on 17 emergency applications filed by Trump (three birthright citizenship apps were consolidated).
It has granted relief to Trump ... in all 15 rulings.
It has written majority opinions in only 3.
Today's order is the 7th with no explanation *at all.*
It has granted relief to Trump ... in all 15 rulings.
It has written majority opinions in only 3.
Today's order is the 7th with no explanation *at all.*