Lee Crawfurd
@leecrawfurd.bsky.social
Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Global Development
https://www.cgdev.org/expert/lee-crawfurd
https://www.cgdev.org/expert/lee-crawfurd
Can LLMs be personal tutors?
1. LLMs are good at explanations, but explanations are over-rated
2. LLMs are not as good at creating precise questions
3. There is a limit to what students will learn on their own and on a screen
open.substack.com/pub/daisychr...
1. LLMs are good at explanations, but explanations are over-rated
2. LLMs are not as good at creating precise questions
3. There is a limit to what students will learn on their own and on a screen
open.substack.com/pub/daisychr...
Can LLMs be personal tutors?
Four big challenges
open.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Can LLMs be personal tutors?
1. LLMs are good at explanations, but explanations are over-rated
2. LLMs are not as good at creating precise questions
3. There is a limit to what students will learn on their own and on a screen
open.substack.com/pub/daisychr...
1. LLMs are good at explanations, but explanations are over-rated
2. LLMs are not as good at creating precise questions
3. There is a limit to what students will learn on their own and on a screen
open.substack.com/pub/daisychr...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
The EU banned toxic lead chromate pigments—but loopholes mean European exports (at least 242 tons) still put children worldwide at risk.
@rorytodd98.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social call for full export ban, a meaningful win for global health at no cost to the EU:
https://go.cgdev.org/4oTRelV
@rorytodd98.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social call for full export ban, a meaningful win for global health at no cost to the EU:
https://go.cgdev.org/4oTRelV
The EU Should Ban Exports of Lead Chromate
A staggering one in three children worldwide suffer from lead poisoning, causing lifelong damage to their health and brain development. It’s these harms that led the EU to ban toxic lead chromate pigm...
go.cgdev.org
November 10, 2025 at 6:07 PM
The EU banned toxic lead chromate pigments—but loopholes mean European exports (at least 242 tons) still put children worldwide at risk.
@rorytodd98.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social call for full export ban, a meaningful win for global health at no cost to the EU:
https://go.cgdev.org/4oTRelV
@rorytodd98.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social call for full export ban, a meaningful win for global health at no cost to the EU:
https://go.cgdev.org/4oTRelV
Delighted that the JRCT is taking this next step in reckoning seriously with their historical legacy
www.linkedin.com/posts/hiring...
www.linkedin.com/posts/hiring...
November 11, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Delighted that the JRCT is taking this next step in reckoning seriously with their historical legacy
www.linkedin.com/posts/hiring...
www.linkedin.com/posts/hiring...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
We just spent 6 months to add 1 figure to this paper. Some people said, "Couples aren't prioritizing men's careers. Men just have better earnings opportunities when moving."
Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.
Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.
October 7, 2025 at 3:36 PM
We just spent 6 months to add 1 figure to this paper. Some people said, "Couples aren't prioritizing men's careers. Men just have better earnings opportunities when moving."
Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.
Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.
Flu (and/or COVID) vaccines reduce *HEART FAILURE* (consider this your regular reminder to get yours)
academic.oup.com/eurheartj/ar...
academic.oup.com/eurheartj/ar...
November 10, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Flu (and/or COVID) vaccines reduce *HEART FAILURE* (consider this your regular reminder to get yours)
academic.oup.com/eurheartj/ar...
academic.oup.com/eurheartj/ar...
Tim Leunig is prolific in his policy proposals but this is the one that has most stuck in my head - governments should mandate that social media video feeds play the news. 1 min of news for every 1 hour of watching.
open.substack.com/pub/timleuni...
open.substack.com/pub/timleuni...
TikTok
It's time for the news...
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Tim Leunig is prolific in his policy proposals but this is the one that has most stuck in my head - governments should mandate that social media video feeds play the news. 1 min of news for every 1 hour of watching.
open.substack.com/pub/timleuni...
open.substack.com/pub/timleuni...
New blog with @rorytodd98.bsky.social : The EU Should Ban Exports of Lead Chromate
November 7, 2025 at 10:09 AM
New blog with @rorytodd98.bsky.social : The EU Should Ban Exports of Lead Chromate
LEEP are hiring for multiple program associate roles working on reducing lead exposure in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Application Deadline: Nov 16, 2025, salaries $35-50k depending on location (including remote).
leadelimination.org/jobs/
leadelimination.org/jobs/
Jobs | Lead Elimination
LEEP is seeking a motivated and versatile Program Associate to support the delivery of programs across multiple countries, with a primary focus on French-speaking African countries. They will be…
leadelimination.org
November 6, 2025 at 11:41 AM
LEEP are hiring for multiple program associate roles working on reducing lead exposure in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Application Deadline: Nov 16, 2025, salaries $35-50k depending on location (including remote).
leadelimination.org/jobs/
leadelimination.org/jobs/
"Current proposals in Britain are exceptional even in the longer-term development of repressive European migration policy."
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/05/b...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/05/b...
November 6, 2025 at 9:39 AM
"Current proposals in Britain are exceptional even in the longer-term development of repressive European migration policy."
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/05/b...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/05/b...
Good news that the UK Health Ministry has finally been shamed into thinking about child lead screening, great work @laurahughesft.bsky.social !
www.ft.com/content/e27f...
www.ft.com/content/e27f...
November 5, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Good news that the UK Health Ministry has finally been shamed into thinking about child lead screening, great work @laurahughesft.bsky.social !
www.ft.com/content/e27f...
www.ft.com/content/e27f...
You may remember talk of "fractional dosing" during COVID. Its still relevant - we could save thousands of lives and millions of dollars by stretching vaccines for various diseases, giving lower doses to more people at less cost.
New by Witold Więcek
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
New by Witold Więcek
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
More From Less: Optimising Vaccines in a Constrained World
More focus on how vaccines are dosed can deliver large benefits. The current practice of vaccine development and licensure delivers vaccines that are safe and effective, but the doses given are…
www.cgdev.org
November 4, 2025 at 9:43 AM
You may remember talk of "fractional dosing" during COVID. Its still relevant - we could save thousands of lives and millions of dollars by stretching vaccines for various diseases, giving lower doses to more people at less cost.
New by Witold Więcek
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
New by Witold Więcek
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
Could Katie Lam identify the London schools where "more than three-quarters of children don’t speak English to a serviceable school standard". Well done to @davehillonlondon.bsky.social for giving Lam + CPS the chance to substantiate this claim at the Tory fringe
www.onlondon.co.uk/dave-hill-ka...
www.onlondon.co.uk/dave-hill-ka...
Dave Hill: Katie Lam should learn London's language
Recent comments about the capital's school children's English skills suggest the Tory MP from Kent must try harder
www.onlondon.co.uk
October 31, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Could Katie Lam identify the London schools where "more than three-quarters of children don’t speak English to a serviceable school standard". Well done to @davehillonlondon.bsky.social for giving Lam + CPS the chance to substantiate this claim at the Tory fringe
www.onlondon.co.uk/dave-hill-ka...
www.onlondon.co.uk/dave-hill-ka...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
Despite evidence that letting pregnant girls stay in school doesn’t raise teen pregnancy rates, Catholic schools in the Congo have imposed a ban.
@daveevansphd.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social warn of the costs: worse employment, wellbeing & more. Read on:
https://bit.ly/3Kq77lm
@daveevansphd.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social warn of the costs: worse employment, wellbeing & more. Read on:
https://bit.ly/3Kq77lm
Catholic Schools in the Congo Ban Pregnant Girls
Almost everywhere, girls who get pregnant in school are allowed to finish their education. Only five countries still have explicit bans or restrictions: Afghanistan, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Kuwait, a...
bit.ly
October 28, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Despite evidence that letting pregnant girls stay in school doesn’t raise teen pregnancy rates, Catholic schools in the Congo have imposed a ban.
@daveevansphd.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social warn of the costs: worse employment, wellbeing & more. Read on:
https://bit.ly/3Kq77lm
@daveevansphd.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social warn of the costs: worse employment, wellbeing & more. Read on:
https://bit.ly/3Kq77lm
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
As we round out Lead Poisoning Prevention Week, read @rorytodd98.bsky.social
@leecrawfurd.bsky.social & @rachelbonnifield.bsky.social's research into lead chromate—finding that rich countries like the US & UK still export it to poorer nations, despite banning it at home:
https://bit.ly/4jusvlJ
@leecrawfurd.bsky.social & @rachelbonnifield.bsky.social's research into lead chromate—finding that rich countries like the US & UK still export it to poorer nations, despite banning it at home:
https://bit.ly/4jusvlJ
Rich Countries Are Exporting Thousands of Tons of Toxic Paint Pigment to Poor Countries
One in three children globally suffer from lead poisoning, which harms their health and educational development. While there’s a lot we still don’t know about where exposure comes from, most experts w...
bit.ly
October 24, 2025 at 8:46 PM
As we round out Lead Poisoning Prevention Week, read @rorytodd98.bsky.social
@leecrawfurd.bsky.social & @rachelbonnifield.bsky.social's research into lead chromate—finding that rich countries like the US & UK still export it to poorer nations, despite banning it at home:
https://bit.ly/4jusvlJ
@leecrawfurd.bsky.social & @rachelbonnifield.bsky.social's research into lead chromate—finding that rich countries like the US & UK still export it to poorer nations, despite banning it at home:
https://bit.ly/4jusvlJ
"malaria is associated with lower student performance. Female students are disproportionately affected, widening the gender gap in education. Abatement such as insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) help to moderate the effects of malaria on students’ performance."
academic.oup.com/wber/advance...
academic.oup.com/wber/advance...
October 24, 2025 at 1:00 PM
"malaria is associated with lower student performance. Female students are disproportionately affected, widening the gender gap in education. Abatement such as insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) help to moderate the effects of malaria on students’ performance."
academic.oup.com/wber/advance...
academic.oup.com/wber/advance...
It's depressing that a third of British voters are excited about Reform/Farage, but important to remember that two-thirds are opposed
Farage is 32-61 across Britain (12% VERY favourable and 50% VERY unfavourable), and 32-65 with the Wales sample in this poll (with 59% very unfavourable).
The idea that this Caerphilly result mainly product of existence of a nationalist party in Wales & Scotland not England makes v little sense
The idea that this Caerphilly result mainly product of existence of a nationalist party in Wales & Scotland not England makes v little sense
October 24, 2025 at 12:08 PM
It's depressing that a third of British voters are excited about Reform/Farage, but important to remember that two-thirds are opposed
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
Encouraging. Seems many Conservatives don’t actually want to be the BNP plus plus Idi Amin tribute party. Maybe because such a toxic stance is deeply unpopular. Maybe because it is deeply wrong and cuts against core British values.
Conservatives complain to whips about fellow MP’s comments on legally settled people
Conservatives complain to whips about fellow MP’s comments on legally settled people
Exclusive: Criticism of Katie Lam comes amid widespread confusion in the party over its policy on indefinite leave to remain
Conservative MPs have complained to party whips after Katie Lam said many legally settled people should be deported to make the UK “culturally coherent”, the Guardian has learned.
Lam, seen as a rising Tory star, said last weekend she believed “a large number of people” living legally in the UK should have their right to stay revoked and “go home”. “What that will leave is a mostly but not entirely culturally coherent group of people,” she told the Sunday Times. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
October 23, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Encouraging. Seems many Conservatives don’t actually want to be the BNP plus plus Idi Amin tribute party. Maybe because such a toxic stance is deeply unpopular. Maybe because it is deeply wrong and cuts against core British values.
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
Several Tory MPs are unhappy at language of Katie Lam, a junior whip, saying mass deportations of 2-3m+ needed to make Britain "more culturally coherent" (ie, fewer nonwhite migrants) but "not entirely" (ie,some of those she can't deport won't integrate: Muslims)
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Conservatives complain to whips about fellow MP’s comments on legally settled people
Exclusive: Criticism of Katie Lam comes amid widespread confusion in the party over its policy on indefinite leave to remain
www.theguardian.com
October 23, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Several Tory MPs are unhappy at language of Katie Lam, a junior whip, saying mass deportations of 2-3m+ needed to make Britain "more culturally coherent" (ie, fewer nonwhite migrants) but "not entirely" (ie,some of those she can't deport won't integrate: Muslims)
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
The Conservatives would not deport as many people as Idi Amin.
They would deport *more*. www.ft.com/content/9a1d...
They would deport *more*. www.ft.com/content/9a1d...
October 23, 2025 at 1:40 PM
The Conservatives would not deport as many people as Idi Amin.
They would deport *more*. www.ft.com/content/9a1d...
They would deport *more*. www.ft.com/content/9a1d...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
"If you wanted to design a policy that would cause human misery and be about as popular as typhoid in a jacuzzi, it is difficult to imagine how you could do better than this. This is a more extreme policy position than, say, the BNP’s 2005 manifesto"
Hadn’t, in truth, really absorbed the scale of what the Conservatives are proposing on ILR and immigration more broadly until this week’s Sunday Times interviews. Some thoughts on that in today’s note:
Tory deportation plan would upend Britain
Proposing such a radical bill with little public support is a gift to Nigel Farage
www.ft.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:16 PM
"If you wanted to design a policy that would cause human misery and be about as popular as typhoid in a jacuzzi, it is difficult to imagine how you could do better than this. This is a more extreme policy position than, say, the BNP’s 2005 manifesto"
"the median global markup on SMS for non-internet phones could be up to 9,000 percent"
new @CGDev blog by @dbjork.bsky.social on a key challenge for universal access to AI
www.cgdev.org/blog/sms-cha...
new @CGDev blog by @dbjork.bsky.social on a key challenge for universal access to AI
www.cgdev.org/blog/sms-cha...
SMS Charges May Be Inhibiting the Use of AI for 1 Billion People
Smartphone users across the globe increasingly have access to a variety of services that make use of AI, but high markups on text messages will prevent the world’s poorest from making use of the…
www.cgdev.org
October 23, 2025 at 9:05 PM
"the median global markup on SMS for non-internet phones could be up to 9,000 percent"
new @CGDev blog by @dbjork.bsky.social on a key challenge for universal access to AI
www.cgdev.org/blog/sms-cha...
new @CGDev blog by @dbjork.bsky.social on a key challenge for universal access to AI
www.cgdev.org/blog/sms-cha...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
Do Investments in Early Grade Literacy and Numeracy Pay Off? Our best evidence says yes, in a big way!
Last week, @cgdev.org highlighted new evidence on long-term earnings gains from improvements in early grade literacy & numeracy.
Here's a quick summary: www.cgdev.org/blog/do-inve...
Last week, @cgdev.org highlighted new evidence on long-term earnings gains from improvements in early grade literacy & numeracy.
Here's a quick summary: www.cgdev.org/blog/do-inve...
Do Investments in Early Grade Literacy and Numeracy Pay Off in Earnings? Our Best Evidence Says Yes
Last week, the Center for Global Development hosted a presentation and conversation about new evidence on the long-term earnings gains resulting from improvements in early grade literacy and numeracy....
www.cgdev.org
October 23, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Do Investments in Early Grade Literacy and Numeracy Pay Off? Our best evidence says yes, in a big way!
Last week, @cgdev.org highlighted new evidence on long-term earnings gains from improvements in early grade literacy & numeracy.
Here's a quick summary: www.cgdev.org/blog/do-inve...
Last week, @cgdev.org highlighted new evidence on long-term earnings gains from improvements in early grade literacy & numeracy.
Here's a quick summary: www.cgdev.org/blog/do-inve...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
Should be a v simple choice for Badenoch’s LOTO - either withdraw this mad “Idi Amin x 20” mass deportation bill or they should be treated by everyone in politics as what they are - more extreme on immigration than the BNP or any democratic govt anywhere
LOTO should obviously now withdraw this mad bill if they say they would design the conditions "carefully" since they clearly have either not read or not understood what the Shadow Home Secretary has actually drafted and put to first reading
bsky.app/profile/pete...
bsky.app/profile/pete...
• They can't say if it would apply to all other benefits eg statutory maternity pay.
• Won't say if it would apply to people with ILR who have UK national kids and/or spouse.
• Very few answers at all: "There are always going to be fringe cases & the policy will need to be designed very carefully."
• Won't say if it would apply to people with ILR who have UK national kids and/or spouse.
• Very few answers at all: "There are always going to be fringe cases & the policy will need to be designed very carefully."
October 23, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Should be a v simple choice for Badenoch’s LOTO - either withdraw this mad “Idi Amin x 20” mass deportation bill or they should be treated by everyone in politics as what they are - more extreme on immigration than the BNP or any democratic govt anywhere
Vietnam is a massive positive outlier on international school tests riseprogramme.org/node/141.html
Striking that its also a large outlier in how valued teachers feel by both parents and policymakers
(From the latest TALIS survey published earlier this month
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...)
Striking that its also a large outlier in how valued teachers feel by both parents and policymakers
(From the latest TALIS survey published earlier this month
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...)
October 22, 2025 at 10:28 PM
Vietnam is a massive positive outlier on international school tests riseprogramme.org/node/141.html
Striking that its also a large outlier in how valued teachers feel by both parents and policymakers
(From the latest TALIS survey published earlier this month
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...)
Striking that its also a large outlier in how valued teachers feel by both parents and policymakers
(From the latest TALIS survey published earlier this month
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...)
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
Draft Tory legislation on removing indefinite leave to remain is insane.
Would chuck out those not earning over £38K - including many pensioners!
+ social protections seems to include child benefit, so load of people with (British!) kids!
They'd remove my sis & mum who've been here 50 years.
Would chuck out those not earning over £38K - including many pensioners!
+ social protections seems to include child benefit, so load of people with (British!) kids!
They'd remove my sis & mum who've been here 50 years.
October 22, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Draft Tory legislation on removing indefinite leave to remain is insane.
Would chuck out those not earning over £38K - including many pensioners!
+ social protections seems to include child benefit, so load of people with (British!) kids!
They'd remove my sis & mum who've been here 50 years.
Would chuck out those not earning over £38K - including many pensioners!
+ social protections seems to include child benefit, so load of people with (British!) kids!
They'd remove my sis & mum who've been here 50 years.