Kevin Allison
@kevinallison.bsky.social
Founder and President, Minerva Technology Futures, a geopolitical and policy advisory firm focused on #AI, #semiconductors, #data, #supplychains. #techpolicy
“As the leader of all illegal activities in Casablanca, I am an influential and respected man.”
It’s been a while since I’ve seen The Maltese Falcon, but Casablanca has some real gems, beyond the most famous ones. It’s a funny movie.
It’s been a while since I’ve seen The Maltese Falcon, but Casablanca has some real gems, beyond the most famous ones. It’s a funny movie.
Regret to inform that my household is having its most tedious low-stakes argument: Casablanca vs. Maltese Falcon.
This time, my darling husband is actually trying to tell me the latter is _funnier._
This time, my darling husband is actually trying to tell me the latter is _funnier._
January 23, 2026 at 1:28 AM
“As the leader of all illegal activities in Casablanca, I am an influential and respected man.”
It’s been a while since I’ve seen The Maltese Falcon, but Casablanca has some real gems, beyond the most famous ones. It’s a funny movie.
It’s been a while since I’ve seen The Maltese Falcon, but Casablanca has some real gems, beyond the most famous ones. It’s a funny movie.
Even after the back-track from Trump, Carney and partners in Europe may not wait to be fooled three times. Middle-power governments will likely push harder to reduce their tech dependency on the US.
open.substack.com/pub/minervai...
open.substack.com/pub/minervai...
Deal or no, Greenland rupture will change the digital sovereignty debate
The damage might already be done — as Trump says he has struck a deal with NATO and will no longer impose punitive tariffs on European countries over Greenland.
open.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 1:00 AM
Even after the back-track from Trump, Carney and partners in Europe may not wait to be fooled three times. Middle-power governments will likely push harder to reduce their tech dependency on the US.
open.substack.com/pub/minervai...
open.substack.com/pub/minervai...
Grant’s memoirs were my top read of 2025, full of anecdotes and detail on the strategic thinking behind key battles and his integrated plan to dismantle the Confederacy - which hinged on *actually fighting*. The story of the memoirs is also quite interesting. They were edited by Mark Twain.
January 14, 2026 at 6:41 AM
Grant’s memoirs were my top read of 2025, full of anecdotes and detail on the strategic thinking behind key battles and his integrated plan to dismantle the Confederacy - which hinged on *actually fighting*. The story of the memoirs is also quite interesting. They were edited by Mark Twain.
Deepening?
Issue of money sovereignty for Europe ramping up; big sign-on letter from economists calls for a digital Euro with no US dependencies (as China has done in building its digital currency stack).
www.ft.com/content/b060...
www.ft.com/content/b060...
Digital euro ‘only defence’ against deepening US control of money, economists warn
Academics including France’s Thomas Piketty press MEPs to resist ‘shortsighted’ lobbying against project
www.ft.com
January 14, 2026 at 4:25 AM
Deepening?
Wow. Can't think of anything remotely close to this in the history of the Federal Reserve. Certainly not in the two decades-plus that I have been following financial markets.
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
YouTube video by Federal Reserve
www.youtube.com
January 12, 2026 at 5:05 AM
Wow. Can't think of anything remotely close to this in the history of the Federal Reserve. Certainly not in the two decades-plus that I have been following financial markets.
Yep. The worse the social media slop gets, the stronger the argument for a website - or paper, even - that employs real people to observe events write them up, or show you how to cook things, etc. It's the traditional media's biggest chance in a generation to reclaim lost relevance.
I just want to point out that there is a lane for someone to start a small media company whose express mission statement is "nothing we put on the internet was made by AI" & every time a category gets overrun like this, they branch out
NEW: AI “recipe slop” is overrunning search and social. Food creators say Google’s AI Overviews and glossy fake food pics are drowning out real, tested recipes — collapsing traffic and setting home cooks up for disaster, especially this Thanksgiving.
Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 25, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Yep. The worse the social media slop gets, the stronger the argument for a website - or paper, even - that employs real people to observe events write them up, or show you how to cook things, etc. It's the traditional media's biggest chance in a generation to reclaim lost relevance.
Reposted by Kevin Allison
We were honoured to hear from @alliekmiller.bsky.social, CEO of Open Machine & Fortune 500 Advisor, in an inspiring keynote — and to count on the thoughtful moderation of @kevinallison.bsky.social (President, Minerva Technology Futures). 🎙️
November 13, 2025 at 9:25 AM
We were honoured to hear from @alliekmiller.bsky.social, CEO of Open Machine & Fortune 500 Advisor, in an inspiring keynote — and to count on the thoughtful moderation of @kevinallison.bsky.social (President, Minerva Technology Futures). 🎙️
Reposted by Kevin Allison
📣THREAD: It’s surprising to me that so many people were surprised to learn that Signal runs partly on AWS (something we can do because we use encryption to make sure no one but you–not AWS, not Signal, not anyone–can access your comms).
It’s also concerning. 1/
It’s also concerning. 1/
PSA: we're aware that Signal is down for some people. This appears to be related to a major AWS outage. Stand by.
October 27, 2025 at 10:38 AM
📣THREAD: It’s surprising to me that so many people were surprised to learn that Signal runs partly on AWS (something we can do because we use encryption to make sure no one but you–not AWS, not Signal, not anyone–can access your comms).
It’s also concerning. 1/
It’s also concerning. 1/
A fascinating and weird story for our times.
October 17, 2025 at 7:38 AM
A fascinating and weird story for our times.
Moreover, those rapidly depreciating chips may account for around 60% of the total cost…
itif.org/publications...
itif.org/publications...
September 27, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Moreover, those rapidly depreciating chips may account for around 60% of the total cost…
itif.org/publications...
itif.org/publications...
Reposted by Kevin Allison
Allegedly Chinese hackers have been using zero-day flaws to get inside government-owned Cisco firewalls since MAY. wapo.st/4gHfgOn
U.S. government scrambles to stop new hacking campaign blamed on China
U.S. cybersecurity officials ordered civilian federal agencies to check for vulnerable Cisco equipment being exploited by attackers targeting the government.
wapo.st
September 25, 2025 at 11:06 PM
Allegedly Chinese hackers have been using zero-day flaws to get inside government-owned Cisco firewalls since MAY. wapo.st/4gHfgOn
My first article since joining @cepa.org as a senior fellow tackles the tension between tariffs, the realities of onshoring advanced manufacturing, and the US’s global tech ambitions.
Even “Fortress America” Needs Supply Lines | "Globalization is dead. In its place, the Trump administration is trying to build Fortress America." Kevin Allison #TechPol
Even “Fortress America” Needs Supply Lines
Globalization is dead. And global semiconductor supplies with it. In its place, the Trump administration is trying to build Fortress America.
cepa.org
July 21, 2025 at 5:30 PM
My first article since joining @cepa.org as a senior fellow tackles the tension between tariffs, the realities of onshoring advanced manufacturing, and the US’s global tech ambitions.
Reposted by Kevin Allison
China’s exports of rare-earth magnets last month increased nearly threefold from the previous month after the country lifted some export controls on the critical industrial inputs following a deal with the U.S.
Chinese Rare-Earth Magnet Exports Surge After U.S. Trade Truce
Despite a detente on China’s restrictions on the critical manufacturing inputs, shipments remain far below last year’s levels.
on.wsj.com
July 20, 2025 at 4:09 PM
China’s exports of rare-earth magnets last month increased nearly threefold from the previous month after the country lifted some export controls on the critical industrial inputs following a deal with the U.S.
Reuters on Monday quoting the president providing further grist for our Fortress America thesis.
May 26, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Reuters on Monday quoting the president providing further grist for our Fortress America thesis.
Our new paper is out: “Fortress America and the Future of the Global Tech Stack” examines how the US use of technology statecraft is likely to evolve under the second Trump administration.
#geopolitics #tech
www.minervapolicy.com/fortress-ame...
#geopolitics #tech
www.minervapolicy.com/fortress-ame...
April 18, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Our new paper is out: “Fortress America and the Future of the Global Tech Stack” examines how the US use of technology statecraft is likely to evolve under the second Trump administration.
#geopolitics #tech
www.minervapolicy.com/fortress-ame...
#geopolitics #tech
www.minervapolicy.com/fortress-ame...
So Trump paused most of the reciprocal tariffs, but:
* 10% baseline tariff still in effect.
* Further escalation to 125% tariff on China is plenty disruptive for supply chains and consumer prices.
* Uncertainty still biting, since A 90-day pause isn't a good basis for businesses to plan.
* 10% baseline tariff still in effect.
* Further escalation to 125% tariff on China is plenty disruptive for supply chains and consumer prices.
* Uncertainty still biting, since A 90-day pause isn't a good basis for businesses to plan.
Bond vigilantes: “We ride at midnight.”
10-year yield going vertical here. Something’s gonna break.
April 9, 2025 at 6:03 PM
So Trump paused most of the reciprocal tariffs, but:
* 10% baseline tariff still in effect.
* Further escalation to 125% tariff on China is plenty disruptive for supply chains and consumer prices.
* Uncertainty still biting, since A 90-day pause isn't a good basis for businesses to plan.
* 10% baseline tariff still in effect.
* Further escalation to 125% tariff on China is plenty disruptive for supply chains and consumer prices.
* Uncertainty still biting, since A 90-day pause isn't a good basis for businesses to plan.
I think we are all the Peterson Institute for International Economics right now...
nvm
We updated the chart.
Average US tariffs on China are now 104.3%.
Average China tariffs on the US are now 106.6%.
100% of goods flowing between the world's two largest economies are now subject to tariffs.
Details & data here: www.piie.com/research/pii...
Average US tariffs on China are now 104.3%.
Average China tariffs on the US are now 106.6%.
100% of goods flowing between the world's two largest economies are now subject to tariffs.
Details & data here: www.piie.com/research/pii...
April 9, 2025 at 5:57 PM
I think we are all the Peterson Institute for International Economics right now...
Bond vigilantes: “We ride at midnight.”
10-year yield going vertical here. Something’s gonna break.
April 9, 2025 at 3:26 AM
Bond vigilantes: “We ride at midnight.”
So what do all these tariffs mean for tech? Here is a quick rundown:
April 2, 2025 at 9:33 PM
So what do all these tariffs mean for tech? Here is a quick rundown:
I'm going to live tweet the Trump administration's big tariff announcement, with a focus on geopolitical impacts and implications for the tech sector.
There will be gifs.
1/?
There will be gifs.
1/?
a sign that says tariffs on with a person holding a hockey stick
ALT: a sign that says tariffs on with a person holding a hockey stick
media.tenor.com
April 2, 2025 at 8:06 PM
I'm going to live tweet the Trump administration's big tariff announcement, with a focus on geopolitical impacts and implications for the tech sector.
There will be gifs.
1/?
There will be gifs.
1/?
The problem with AI grand strategy: Competition between the US, China, or other nuclear-armed nations over superintelligent AI happens in the shadow of those nations’ still substantial nuclear arsenals, which present very real and far more immediate “existential” risks.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Policymakers are struggling to create a strategic doctrine for superintelligence.
The threat of superintelligence-enabled warfare is forcing governments to consider new ways of stabilizing global security. Is there an equivalent to the “MAD” moment for artificial intelligence?
substack.com
March 20, 2025 at 3:43 PM
The problem with AI grand strategy: Competition between the US, China, or other nuclear-armed nations over superintelligent AI happens in the shadow of those nations’ still substantial nuclear arsenals, which present very real and far more immediate “existential” risks.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
It’s always a good day when you can reference War Games, the second best hacker film of all time.
open.substack.com/pub/minervai...
open.substack.com/pub/minervai...
Policymakers are struggling to create a strategic doctrine for superintelligence.
The threat of superintelligence-enabled warfare is forcing governments to consider new ways of stabilizing global security. Is there an equivalent to the “MAD” moment for artificial intelligence?
open.substack.com
March 19, 2025 at 7:13 PM
It’s always a good day when you can reference War Games, the second best hacker film of all time.
open.substack.com/pub/minervai...
open.substack.com/pub/minervai...
Reposted by Kevin Allison
Singapore and other nodes in high-tech sectors face collateral damage as US tightens rules on chips – The Straits Times
S’pore, other nodes in high-tech sectors face collateral damage as US tightens rules on chips
US trains sights on countries including Singapore that may have sold China advanced Nvidia chips. Read more at straitstimes.com.
www.straitstimes.com
February 27, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Singapore and other nodes in high-tech sectors face collateral damage as US tightens rules on chips – The Straits Times
One infinitesimal leap for an elementary particle...one giant leap for mankind? In Inferences in December, we wrote about the quickening pace of quantum progress. Check it out:
minervainferences.substack.com/p/the-quantu...
minervainferences.substack.com/p/the-quantu...
February 19, 2025 at 10:56 PM
One infinitesimal leap for an elementary particle...one giant leap for mankind? In Inferences in December, we wrote about the quickening pace of quantum progress. Check it out:
minervainferences.substack.com/p/the-quantu...
minervainferences.substack.com/p/the-quantu...
Great column. The divide is real. Looking forward to discussing it during the #AIActionSummit in Paris this week.
What does the AI revolution have in common with the English civil war of the 17th century? Felix Martin explains all.
www.reuters.com/breakingview...
www.reuters.com/breakingview...
Breakingviews - AI’s civil war will force investors to pick sides
In their satirical history of the United Kingdom, “1066 And All That”, the authors W. C. Sellar and R. J. Yeatman cast the English civil war of the 17th century as a conflict between the “Wrong but Romantic” Cavaliers and the “Right but Revolting” Roundheads. The aftermath of the release last month of Chinese startup DeepSeek’s R1 artificial intelligence model, which matches or outperforms existing offerings from U.S. technology titans at a fraction of the cost, has exposed a similar divide among the world’s leading innovators in the field of machine learning.
www.reuters.com
February 9, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Great column. The divide is real. Looking forward to discussing it during the #AIActionSummit in Paris this week.