Kai Thaler
@kaimthaler.bsky.social
Global Studies prof at UC Santa Barbara, views own. Proud Mainer. Conflict, violence, statebuilding, protest, democracy & authoritarianism. COYS. kaithaler.com. Author of When Rebels Win https://tinyurl.com/whenrebelswin
Pinned
Kai Thaler
@kaimthaler.bsky.social
· Oct 9
When Rebels Win now has a cover! Thanks to the @cornellupress.bsky.social team for work on the design. It's out December 15, & available to preorder. Please get in touch if you're interested in having me talk about the book in a seminar series or a class! www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
The Super Cup loss was a high point in Spurs supporters’ faith in Thomas Frank, so maybe he and the players wanted us to relive that same experience of a whole lot of promise and then losing the lead
November 26, 2025 at 9:28 PM
The Super Cup loss was a high point in Spurs supporters’ faith in Thomas Frank, so maybe he and the players wanted us to relive that same experience of a whole lot of promise and then losing the lead
Lucas Perelló with a good rundown of what's happening and what's at stake in Honduras's elections www.americasquarterly.org/article/hond...
Honduras’s Election Set to Test Its Democracy
Amid growing polarization, all sides fear the November 30 vote will be contentious, an expert writes.
www.americasquarterly.org
November 25, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Lucas Perelló with a good rundown of what's happening and what's at stake in Honduras's elections www.americasquarterly.org/article/hond...
If you want a peek at the beginning of my book When Rebels Win, it's now up on Google Books. But for the full thing (and properly aligned text in the title for Part I) you'll have to buy it or ask your library to purchase it! books.google.com/books?vid=IS...
When Rebels Win
In When Rebels Win, Kai M. Thaler explores why victorious rebel groups govern in strikingly different ways. Many assume civil wars destroy state capacity. In the Democratic Republic of Congo and Libya...
books.google.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:56 PM
If you want a peek at the beginning of my book When Rebels Win, it's now up on Google Books. But for the full thing (and properly aligned text in the title for Part I) you'll have to buy it or ask your library to purchase it! books.google.com/books?vid=IS...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
November 24, 2025 at 12:47 AM
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Consolidated authoritarianism across Eurasia
Arrests of Kyrgyz opposition politicians all over the country today ahead of the snap parliamentary elections that President Japarov has assured will be “peaceful and quiet.
The current regime is not taking any chances and putting even its mildest opponents behind bars
The current regime is not taking any chances and putting even its mildest opponents behind bars
November 22, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Consolidated authoritarianism across Eurasia
A fascinating portrait of the Chinese migrant community in Bamako, who are now seeing Mali's status as a land of economic opportunity threatened by JNIM's advances www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Inside a thriving Chinatown neighborhood in the heart of West Africa
Chinese migrants have created a lively community in the Malian capital of Bamako but the advance of Islamist militants has them questioning their futures.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 21, 2025 at 5:35 AM
A fascinating portrait of the Chinese migrant community in Bamako, who are now seeing Mali's status as a land of economic opportunity threatened by JNIM's advances www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
The average dictator is close to 40 year older than the median person in their country - and it is increasing.
The average democrat is less than 25 year older than the median person in their country - and it is decreasing.
The average democrat is less than 25 year older than the median person in their country - and it is decreasing.
November 20, 2025 at 4:16 PM
The average dictator is close to 40 year older than the median person in their country - and it is increasing.
The average democrat is less than 25 year older than the median person in their country - and it is decreasing.
The average democrat is less than 25 year older than the median person in their country - and it is decreasing.
Reposted by Kai Thaler
WE JUST KEEP WINNING. (UC President's Postdoctoral Fellowship Program RESTORED!!!!)
![On official UC letterhead:
UNIVERSITY
OF
CALIFORNIA
James B. Milliken President
Office of the President
1111 Franklin Street Oakland, CA 94607
universityofcalifornia.edu
CAMPUSES Berkeley
Davis
Irvine
UCLA
Merced
Riverside San Diego San Francisco
Santa Barbara Santa Cruz
MEDICAL CENTERS
Davis
Irvine
UCLA
San Diego
San Francisco
NATIONAL LABORATORIES Lawrence Berkeley Lawrence Livermore Los Alamos
DIVISION OF AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
November 18, 2025
Dear Chancellors:
I'm writing with regard to the President's Postdoctoral Fellowship Program (PPFP) and the program's associated faculty hiring incentive.
As you know, for more than 40 years, PPFP has provided postdoctoral research fellowships, professional development, and faculty mentoring to scholars in all fields whose research, teaching, and service advance the academic and research missions of the University of California.
Since 2003, UC campuses that hire current and former PPFP fellows into ladder-rank positions have been eligible for a hiring incentive funded by the University that provides support for newly hired fellows for five years. Since the creation of the incentive, more than $162 million has been invested by the University to support PPFP faculty hires. This commitment has enabled our campuses to successfully recruit and retain outstanding faculty across a range of disciplines.
Given the myriad challenges currently facing UC - including disruptions to billions of dollars in annual federal support, as well as uncertainty around the state budget- reasonable questions were raised in recent months about whether the University could maintain the commitment to current levels of incentive funding. After considering a recommendation to sunset the incentive program due to these significant fiscal constraints, I consulted with all of you as well as faculty and campus academic administrators and systemwide Academic Senate leadership.
[continued on next image]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rzn6yramffebefeitqifiqqz/bafkreigiwq5ongzwpj4wqmgjam3yfvhyjnv5e3dbq6cnrrbwblqvs624gq@jpeg)
November 18, 2025 at 10:34 PM
WE JUST KEEP WINNING. (UC President's Postdoctoral Fellowship Program RESTORED!!!!)
Reposted by Kai Thaler
📢 New Paper Alert!
Happy to share that our article “Following the Free Officers: Explaining the Politics of Coup Contagion & Containment” — co-authored with @drpowell.bsky.social — is forthcoming in International Studies Review.
Are coups actually contagious, and if so, how?
🧵 below (1/)
Happy to share that our article “Following the Free Officers: Explaining the Politics of Coup Contagion & Containment” — co-authored with @drpowell.bsky.social — is forthcoming in International Studies Review.
Are coups actually contagious, and if so, how?
🧵 below (1/)
November 17, 2025 at 1:05 PM
📢 New Paper Alert!
Happy to share that our article “Following the Free Officers: Explaining the Politics of Coup Contagion & Containment” — co-authored with @drpowell.bsky.social — is forthcoming in International Studies Review.
Are coups actually contagious, and if so, how?
🧵 below (1/)
Happy to share that our article “Following the Free Officers: Explaining the Politics of Coup Contagion & Containment” — co-authored with @drpowell.bsky.social — is forthcoming in International Studies Review.
Are coups actually contagious, and if so, how?
🧵 below (1/)
Reposted by Kai Thaler
It's not just a ton of ships, fighter jets, a sub, and a bunch of various spec ops guys training in the region, the U.S. military is moving back into bases it left years ago. And depending on how a vote in Ecuador goes this weekend, it could move back into another.
The US military’s plan to revive old bases in Latin America trib.al/40bSAdX
The US military’s plan to revive old bases in Latin America
Bases in Panama, Puerto Rico, and potentially Ecuador are coming back to life as the U.S. military builds up forces in the region.
trib.al
November 16, 2025 at 1:25 AM
It's not just a ton of ships, fighter jets, a sub, and a bunch of various spec ops guys training in the region, the U.S. military is moving back into bases it left years ago. And depending on how a vote in Ecuador goes this weekend, it could move back into another.
Reposted by Kai Thaler
There’s a lot of evidence that diversionary war is not really a thing. But if I were Venezuela right now…
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
November 15, 2025 at 9:38 PM
There’s a lot of evidence that diversionary war is not really a thing. But if I were Venezuela right now…
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
Good piece from @nslayton.bsky.social on the buildup of military forces and equipment at old US bases in Latin America & the Caribbean, which could continue if Ecuadorian voters agree tomorrow to allow foreign bases in the country again taskandpurpose.com/news/us-base...
The US military’s plan to revive old bases in Latin America
Bases in Panama, Puerto Rico, and potentially Ecuador are coming back to life as the U.S. military builds up forces in the region.
taskandpurpose.com
November 15, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Good piece from @nslayton.bsky.social on the buildup of military forces and equipment at old US bases in Latin America & the Caribbean, which could continue if Ecuadorian voters agree tomorrow to allow foreign bases in the country again taskandpurpose.com/news/us-base...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Democracy’s death in Tunisia—home of the Arab Spring—is one of the greatest tragedies of my life.
Just spoke w/ London’s Times Radio on Saied’s worsening abuses.
Jailed democracy leaders are getting their ribs broken by prison guards. They’re barred from court at their own “trials.”
🧵
Just spoke w/ London’s Times Radio on Saied’s worsening abuses.
Jailed democracy leaders are getting their ribs broken by prison guards. They’re barred from court at their own “trials.”
🧵
November 14, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Democracy’s death in Tunisia—home of the Arab Spring—is one of the greatest tragedies of my life.
Just spoke w/ London’s Times Radio on Saied’s worsening abuses.
Jailed democracy leaders are getting their ribs broken by prison guards. They’re barred from court at their own “trials.”
🧵
Just spoke w/ London’s Times Radio on Saied’s worsening abuses.
Jailed democracy leaders are getting their ribs broken by prison guards. They’re barred from court at their own “trials.”
🧵
Reposted by Kai Thaler
2 Assistant Professor in Sociology at Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DPH703/a...
Assistant Professor in Sociology at Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Explore an exciting academic career as a Assistant Professor in Sociology. Don't miss out on other academic jobs. Click to apply and explore more opportunities.
www.jobs.ac.uk
November 12, 2025 at 9:07 PM
2 Assistant Professor in Sociology at Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DPH703/a...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Happy to have a new open access Security Studies article on why & how revolutionary regimes often struggle to balance against threats soon after taking power, undermining military effectiveness www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Stumbling out of the Gates: Security Strategy and Military Weakness after Revolutionary Victory
Revolutionary regimes may prove durable over time, yet they are often weak and militarily ineffective after victory. How do the circumstances of victory shape these weaknesses? Where old regime sec...
www.tandfonline.com
November 9, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Happy to have a new open access Security Studies article on why & how revolutionary regimes often struggle to balance against threats soon after taking power, undermining military effectiveness www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Incredible to reflect on Syria one year ago today and where it is now.
In just minutes, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa will meet with POTUS, marking the first time a Syrian president will visit the White House since 1946.
Expect sanctions, ISIS, Israel on the agenda.
In just minutes, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa will meet with POTUS, marking the first time a Syrian president will visit the White House since 1946.
Expect sanctions, ISIS, Israel on the agenda.
November 10, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Incredible to reflect on Syria one year ago today and where it is now.
In just minutes, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa will meet with POTUS, marking the first time a Syrian president will visit the White House since 1946.
Expect sanctions, ISIS, Israel on the agenda.
In just minutes, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa will meet with POTUS, marking the first time a Syrian president will visit the White House since 1946.
Expect sanctions, ISIS, Israel on the agenda.
Happy to have a new open access Security Studies article on why & how revolutionary regimes often struggle to balance against threats soon after taking power, undermining military effectiveness www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Stumbling out of the Gates: Security Strategy and Military Weakness after Revolutionary Victory
Revolutionary regimes may prove durable over time, yet they are often weak and militarily ineffective after victory. How do the circumstances of victory shape these weaknesses? Where old regime sec...
www.tandfonline.com
November 9, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Happy to have a new open access Security Studies article on why & how revolutionary regimes often struggle to balance against threats soon after taking power, undermining military effectiveness www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Two panels commemorating the contribution of Black American soldiers towards the liberation of the Netherlands in World War Two have been quietly removed from a cemetery in Limburg. It follows a complaint by right-wing think tank The Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission.
Op Margraten zijn twee panelen over zwarte Amerikaanse bevrijders van Nederland opeens weg. ‘Past bij beleid van de regering-Trump’
Op Margraten zijn twee panelen over zwarte Amerikaanse bevrijders van Nederland opeens weg. ‘Past bij beleid van de regering-Trump’
Op de Amerikaanse begraafplaats in Margraten is het opeens stil geworden rond de zwarte Amerikanen die hielpen Nederland bevrijden. Twee panelen die hun bijdrage herdachten – én wezen op hun strijd tegen racisme binnen het leger – werden zonder toelichting verwijderd.
www.nrc.nl
November 8, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Two panels commemorating the contribution of Black American soldiers towards the liberation of the Netherlands in World War Two have been quietly removed from a cemetery in Limburg. It follows a complaint by right-wing think tank The Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission.
Reposted by Kai Thaler
NEW: Common Crawl, the massive archiver of the web, has gotten cozy with AI companies and is providing paywalled articles for training data. They’re also lying to publishers who have asked for material to be removed. “The robots are people too,” CC’s exec director told us when we asked about this.
The Nonprofit Feeding the Entire Internet to AI Companies
Common Crawl claims to provide a public benefit, but it lies to publishers about its activities.
www.theatlantic.com
November 4, 2025 at 12:15 PM
NEW: Common Crawl, the massive archiver of the web, has gotten cozy with AI companies and is providing paywalled articles for training data. They’re also lying to publishers who have asked for material to be removed. “The robots are people too,” CC’s exec director told us when we asked about this.
Reposted by Kai Thaler
You can read a PDF version of the intro to The First Right: Self-Determination and The Transformation of International Order by clicking on the link below.
You can also get a 30% discount using the promotion code AUFLY30 from the Oxford website.
academic.oup.com/book/60825/c...
You can also get a 30% discount using the promotion code AUFLY30 from the Oxford website.
academic.oup.com/book/60825/c...
Introduction: One, Two, Three, Many Self-Determinations
Abstract. The idea of self-determination is one of the most significant in modern international politics. For more than a century diplomats, lawyers, schol
academic.oup.com
November 3, 2025 at 5:08 PM
You can read a PDF version of the intro to The First Right: Self-Determination and The Transformation of International Order by clicking on the link below.
You can also get a 30% discount using the promotion code AUFLY30 from the Oxford website.
academic.oup.com/book/60825/c...
You can also get a 30% discount using the promotion code AUFLY30 from the Oxford website.
academic.oup.com/book/60825/c...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Satellite images show that most of the 260,000 civilians in Sudan’s el-Fasher are likely still trapped, as mass RSF killings continue
Satellite images show most el-Fasher civilians likely still trapped
Latest images suggest that majority of 260,000 civilians still in captured city, as mass RSF killings continue
www.middleeasteye.net
November 1, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Satellite images show that most of the 260,000 civilians in Sudan’s el-Fasher are likely still trapped, as mass RSF killings continue
Reposted by Kai Thaler
“Individuals on the ground sent a message that reached us Monday morning that 1,200 were dead,” Nathaniel Raymond, the lab’s executive director, said. “By that evening, they said 10,000. By Tuesday, we couldn’t reach them anymore. We assume our ground contacts are dead.”
Yale lab reports mass killings in Sudan, calls for student activism
The Humanitarian Research Lab was told this week that over 10,000 people in Sudan were killed within three days.
yaledailynews.com
October 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
“Individuals on the ground sent a message that reached us Monday morning that 1,200 were dead,” Nathaniel Raymond, the lab’s executive director, said. “By that evening, they said 10,000. By Tuesday, we couldn’t reach them anymore. We assume our ground contacts are dead.”
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Hi folks! A few thoughts on this essay, and the questions that we *should* be asking, rather than the ones this Army officer seems inclined to answer. I haven’t done a CMR thread in a while so I’m overdue. 🧵
Hard to imagine a more sinister & dangerous argument, couched in euphemism & high-minded language. "This essay does not argue liberalism will collapse, only that [US] military officers should be intellectually (and spiritually) prepared for alternatives." warontherocks.com/2025/10/the-...
The American Military Officer After Liberalism
Across academia, government, and Silicon Valley, on social media, and in leading journals, intellectuals and political leaders are openly debating what
warontherocks.com
October 31, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Hi folks! A few thoughts on this essay, and the questions that we *should* be asking, rather than the ones this Army officer seems inclined to answer. I haven’t done a CMR thread in a while so I’m overdue. 🧵
Reposted by Kai Thaler
There's been lots of chatter about how air strikes may or may not signal resolve.
Spoiler alert: They are really bad at signaling resolve for a variety of reasons which I explained in this Ethics & International Affairs Piece.
#civmilsky #poliscisky #academicsky
drive.google.com/file/d/1sf5k...
Spoiler alert: They are really bad at signaling resolve for a variety of reasons which I explained in this Ethics & International Affairs Piece.
#civmilsky #poliscisky #academicsky
drive.google.com/file/d/1sf5k...
Lupton_EIA_2020.pdf
drive.google.com
October 31, 2025 at 1:31 PM
There's been lots of chatter about how air strikes may or may not signal resolve.
Spoiler alert: They are really bad at signaling resolve for a variety of reasons which I explained in this Ethics & International Affairs Piece.
#civmilsky #poliscisky #academicsky
drive.google.com/file/d/1sf5k...
Spoiler alert: They are really bad at signaling resolve for a variety of reasons which I explained in this Ethics & International Affairs Piece.
#civmilsky #poliscisky #academicsky
drive.google.com/file/d/1sf5k...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Let's hear it for the farm workers who harvested the pumpkins that are decorating homes across America for #Halloween today. #WeFeedYou
Que se oiga para los campesinos que cosecharon las calabazas que hoy decoran los hogares en todo los Estados Unidos. #SoyEsencial
Que se oiga para los campesinos que cosecharon las calabazas que hoy decoran los hogares en todo los Estados Unidos. #SoyEsencial
October 31, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Let's hear it for the farm workers who harvested the pumpkins that are decorating homes across America for #Halloween today. #WeFeedYou
Que se oiga para los campesinos que cosecharon las calabazas que hoy decoran los hogares en todo los Estados Unidos. #SoyEsencial
Que se oiga para los campesinos que cosecharon las calabazas que hoy decoran los hogares en todo los Estados Unidos. #SoyEsencial