Jonas Schöley
@jschoeley.com
jschoeley.com • Demographer @mpidr.bsky.social
Perinatal Demography • Mortality • Uncertainty • Dataviz
Perinatal Demography • Mortality • Uncertainty • Dataviz
Pinned
Jonas Schöley
@jschoeley.com
· Jul 3
Everything in mortality is a tempo effect.
Let me walk you through my recent work on "A convolution formulation of mortality displacement" a.k.a. "Lifetime lost from time series of counts", last shown at Nordic Demographic Symposium. Happy to give invited talks.
www.jschoeley.com/events/2025-...
Let me walk you through my recent work on "A convolution formulation of mortality displacement" a.k.a. "Lifetime lost from time series of counts", last shown at Nordic Demographic Symposium. Happy to give invited talks.
www.jschoeley.com/events/2025-...
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
Our new paper develops and tests a network-based method for estimating death rates in complex humanitarian emergencies.
Joint w/ @dennisfeehan.bsky.social and team from Geneva-based NGO @impact-initiatives.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
Joint w/ @dennisfeehan.bsky.social and team from Geneva-based NGO @impact-initiatives.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
Estimating death rates in complex humanitarian emergencies using the network survival method
Abstract. Reliable estimates of death rates in complex humanitarian emergencies are critical for assessing the severity of a crisis and for effectively all
academic.oup.com
November 19, 2025 at 5:16 AM
Our new paper develops and tests a network-based method for estimating death rates in complex humanitarian emergencies.
Joint w/ @dennisfeehan.bsky.social and team from Geneva-based NGO @impact-initiatives.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
Joint w/ @dennisfeehan.bsky.social and team from Geneva-based NGO @impact-initiatives.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
Historian Quinn Slobodian in the Financial Times today describing how eugenics is now firmly back on the political agenda
www.ft.com/content/23e9...
www.ft.com/content/23e9...
November 15, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Historian Quinn Slobodian in the Financial Times today describing how eugenics is now firmly back on the political agenda
www.ft.com/content/23e9...
www.ft.com/content/23e9...
Hah. My phone's gps location switched from south of Gotland to Kaliningrad while on a flight from Helsinki to Berlin. It was a clear night, so I guess stellar navigation was an option.
November 15, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Hah. My phone's gps location switched from south of Gotland to Kaliningrad while on a flight from Helsinki to Berlin. It was a clear night, so I guess stellar navigation was an option.
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
Slides from my @mit.edu IDSS Distinguished Speaker seminar "Networks untangle gender differences in productivity and prominence among scientists" this week
I argue that collaboration networks act like unequally distributed (and gendered) social capital
aaronclauset.github.io/slides/Claus...
I argue that collaboration networks act like unequally distributed (and gendered) social capital
aaronclauset.github.io/slides/Claus...
November 6, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Slides from my @mit.edu IDSS Distinguished Speaker seminar "Networks untangle gender differences in productivity and prominence among scientists" this week
I argue that collaboration networks act like unequally distributed (and gendered) social capital
aaronclauset.github.io/slides/Claus...
I argue that collaboration networks act like unequally distributed (and gendered) social capital
aaronclauset.github.io/slides/Claus...
I know the Laplace-transform from frailty models: modeling survival of populations with hidden heterogeneity in death rates. Early in my PhD I wanted to understand the meaning of the transform. Was advised against it by a physicist. Might give it another shot.
This is great. I am not a fan of the oscillator example - makes it seem like a physics niche thing. But so useful for us population-thinkers. I might write up a post using a population dynamics differential equation example. If I can finish cloning myself. Yeah. www.youtube.com/watch?v=FE-h...
Why Laplace transforms are so useful
YouTube video by 3Blue1Brown
www.youtube.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:21 PM
I know the Laplace-transform from frailty models: modeling survival of populations with hidden heterogeneity in death rates. Early in my PhD I wanted to understand the meaning of the transform. Was advised against it by a physicist. Might give it another shot.
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
Check out this conference if you work on topics related to kinship structure and dynamics (within and beyond the household), caregiving, intergenerational processes, family bereavement, LGBTQ+ & chosen kinship, etc. @iussp.bsky.social Submit by 21 Jan 2026 👇 www.demogr.mpg.de/go/kinship-conference
November 6, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Check out this conference if you work on topics related to kinship structure and dynamics (within and beyond the household), caregiving, intergenerational processes, family bereavement, LGBTQ+ & chosen kinship, etc. @iussp.bsky.social Submit by 21 Jan 2026 👇 www.demogr.mpg.de/go/kinship-conference
Wow! Writing such a book on the side (!) is the mark of a scholar! Will there be an english translation?
A hobbey project - writing on the sheer complexity of nature, using public narratives on human nature built around science as examples. "The way we say natural" ➡️ Now published by 사이언스북스 in Korea. It was wonderfulto be able to write in mother tongue on topics I care as a scientist 😇 #scicomm
November 5, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Wow! Writing such a book on the side (!) is the mark of a scholar! Will there be an english translation?
Congratulations!
Congratulations to us, and thank you, @kohli-sociology.bsky.social!
November 5, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Congratulations!
"Why Most Published Research Findings Are LLM written" will be a worse blow for the public perception of scientists than the original 2005 essay by Ioannidis. Doubly true for sociology. As a signal, I'd favor a ban on synthetic text, even if not enforceable. I use LLMs, but never for writing.
It's easy for some of you to just never use LLMs and just criticize people who do. I would like to be in that situation. But here I am, with my moderator volunteers, assessing hundreds of papers submitted to @socarxiv.bsky.social, trying to decide how to fairly judge whether to accept them. /1
November 3, 2025 at 7:39 AM
"Why Most Published Research Findings Are LLM written" will be a worse blow for the public perception of scientists than the original 2005 essay by Ioannidis. Doubly true for sociology. As a signal, I'd favor a ban on synthetic text, even if not enforceable. I use LLMs, but never for writing.
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
A welcome update from arXiv.org to combat garbage Gen AI/LLM papers that pollute the CS knowledge base:
blog.arxiv.org/2025/10/31/a...
h/t @jschoeley.com
blog.arxiv.org/2025/10/31/a...
h/t @jschoeley.com
Attention Authors: Updated Practice for Review Articles and Position Papers in arXiv CS Category – arXiv blog
blog.arxiv.org
November 2, 2025 at 3:48 PM
A welcome update from arXiv.org to combat garbage Gen AI/LLM papers that pollute the CS knowledge base:
blog.arxiv.org/2025/10/31/a...
h/t @jschoeley.com
blog.arxiv.org/2025/10/31/a...
h/t @jschoeley.com
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
It's easy for some of you to just never use LLMs and just criticize people who do. I would like to be in that situation. But here I am, with my moderator volunteers, assessing hundreds of papers submitted to @socarxiv.bsky.social, trying to decide how to fairly judge whether to accept them. /1
November 2, 2025 at 2:36 PM
It's easy for some of you to just never use LLMs and just criticize people who do. I would like to be in that situation. But here I am, with my moderator volunteers, assessing hundreds of papers submitted to @socarxiv.bsky.social, trying to decide how to fairly judge whether to accept them. /1
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
It's Friday night, Halloween! Who's with me for a thread about the economics of pronatalism?!
Some people say we need more babies because we don't have enough workers. But more births means less women workers, by ~15-40%. You trade workers today for workers tomorrow. This is from CPS data:
/1
Some people say we need more babies because we don't have enough workers. But more births means less women workers, by ~15-40%. You trade workers today for workers tomorrow. This is from CPS data:
/1
November 1, 2025 at 12:54 AM
It's Friday night, Halloween! Who's with me for a thread about the economics of pronatalism?!
Some people say we need more babies because we don't have enough workers. But more births means less women workers, by ~15-40%. You trade workers today for workers tomorrow. This is from CPS data:
/1
Some people say we need more babies because we don't have enough workers. But more births means less women workers, by ~15-40%. You trade workers today for workers tomorrow. This is from CPS data:
/1
Traveling to a conference, a US customs officer requested me to "tell me something I don't know".
-"Mortality wise the US looks more similar to 90's Eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union. Stalling life expectancy and rising lifespan inequality." (Is what I should have answered)
-"Mortality wise the US looks more similar to 90's Eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union. Stalling life expectancy and rising lifespan inequality." (Is what I should have answered)
This graph never fails to be shocking: "The US has experienced the earliest and greatest slowdown in life expectancy improvements among higher-income countries, reported Eileen Crimmins. “We have horrible life expectancy—and it’s getting worse and worse”"
www.prb.org/resources/se...
www.prb.org/resources/se...
November 1, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Traveling to a conference, a US customs officer requested me to "tell me something I don't know".
-"Mortality wise the US looks more similar to 90's Eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union. Stalling life expectancy and rising lifespan inequality." (Is what I should have answered)
-"Mortality wise the US looks more similar to 90's Eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union. Stalling life expectancy and rising lifespan inequality." (Is what I should have answered)
3 full-time positions on Probabilistic Migration Modeling at University of @helsinki.fi in collaboration with @mpidr.bsky.social and Mikko Myrskylä.
DM me if you want to know more, as I'm part of the project. Definitely DM me if you heard of conformal prediction
www.vaestoliitto.fi/en/news/post...
DM me if you want to know more, as I'm part of the project. Definitely DM me if you heard of conformal prediction
www.vaestoliitto.fi/en/news/post...
Postdoctoral Researchers in Demography and Population Projections
The Population Research Institute (PRI) at Väestöliitto – Family Federation of Finland and the University of Helsinki invite applications for three positions as Postdoctoral research fellow to study…
www.vaestoliitto.fi
October 27, 2025 at 7:57 AM
3 full-time positions on Probabilistic Migration Modeling at University of @helsinki.fi in collaboration with @mpidr.bsky.social and Mikko Myrskylä.
DM me if you want to know more, as I'm part of the project. Definitely DM me if you heard of conformal prediction
www.vaestoliitto.fi/en/news/post...
DM me if you want to know more, as I'm part of the project. Definitely DM me if you heard of conformal prediction
www.vaestoliitto.fi/en/news/post...
Jim Oeppen showing latitudinal gradient in life expectancy at @hmdatabase.bsky.social symposium in Paris.
October 10, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Jim Oeppen showing latitudinal gradient in life expectancy at @hmdatabase.bsky.social symposium in Paris.
Hot take: "Flattening the curve" successfully lowered overall life expectancy deficits since 2020, but also prolonged the period of excess deaths compared to countries with massive mortality shocks in 2020/2021. That's a public health communication challenge.
October 9, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Hot take: "Flattening the curve" successfully lowered overall life expectancy deficits since 2020, but also prolonged the period of excess deaths compared to countries with massive mortality shocks in 2020/2021. That's a public health communication challenge.
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
Session I on ✨pandemic & post-pandemic #mortality✨ features presentations by @jschoeley.com, Timothy Adair, Michel Guillot & Nazrul Islam, chaired by Vladimir Shkolnikov.
#HMDsymposium2025 #LifeExpectancy #Inequality #Longevity
#HMDsymposium2025 #LifeExpectancy #Inequality #Longevity
October 9, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Session I on ✨pandemic & post-pandemic #mortality✨ features presentations by @jschoeley.com, Timothy Adair, Michel Guillot & Nazrul Islam, chaired by Vladimir Shkolnikov.
#HMDsymposium2025 #LifeExpectancy #Inequality #Longevity
#HMDsymposium2025 #LifeExpectancy #Inequality #Longevity
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
🚨 The Economist has been telling you for years that polygamy causes civil war by locking men out of marriage. A new article with @rebeccasear.bsky.social and @anthrolog.bsky.social explains that the demography of marriage markets doesn't actually work that way. 🧵
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
High rates of polygyny do not lock large proportions of men out of the marriage market | PNAS
There is a widespread belief, in both the scholarly literature and the popular press,
that polygyny prevents large numbers of men from marrying by ...
www.pnas.org
October 6, 2025 at 12:45 PM
🚨 The Economist has been telling you for years that polygamy causes civil war by locking men out of marriage. A new article with @rebeccasear.bsky.social and @anthrolog.bsky.social explains that the demography of marriage markets doesn't actually work that way. 🧵
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
All models are true, some predict your data.
This is where I stand after reifying "mortality laws", reifying mechanistic models, trying to have data without models, and reading Thomas Burch. I was honored to reflect on this journey in my keynote to the Evolutionary Demography Society.
This is where I stand after reifying "mortality laws", reifying mechanistic models, trying to have data without models, and reading Thomas Burch. I was honored to reflect on this journey in my keynote to the Evolutionary Demography Society.
Gompertz in early life or my on-off-on relationship with Vaupelian modeling
www.jschoeley.com
September 29, 2025 at 9:11 AM
All models are true, some predict your data.
This is where I stand after reifying "mortality laws", reifying mechanistic models, trying to have data without models, and reading Thomas Burch. I was honored to reflect on this journey in my keynote to the Evolutionary Demography Society.
This is where I stand after reifying "mortality laws", reifying mechanistic models, trying to have data without models, and reading Thomas Burch. I was honored to reflect on this journey in my keynote to the Evolutionary Demography Society.
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
More evidence about how disparate but influential groups - “self-described Classical Liberals, evangelists of free-market capitalism, ethnonationalists, atheists & conservative theologians” - are converging on far-right views & promoting a return to an “era that was colonial, Christian, patriarchal”
My new article. It was very difficult to make sense of this community’s ideology & contain my analysis in 8k - could easily be a book. Historians could do a much better job of the history. But important to try as these are the backers of GBNews & The Spectator. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
‘A great awakening of men of action’: What does the ‘right-wing Davos’ represent? - Huw Crighton Davies, 2025
The Financial Times called the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship’s 2025 conference the ‘right-wing Davos’. The Alliance involves academics from elite univers...
journals.sagepub.com
September 28, 2025 at 4:31 PM
More evidence about how disparate but influential groups - “self-described Classical Liberals, evangelists of free-market capitalism, ethnonationalists, atheists & conservative theologians” - are converging on far-right views & promoting a return to an “era that was colonial, Christian, patriarchal”
Just saw this academic title. It's like every word tries to undo the one before.
"Senior Lecturer, advanced assistant professor"
"Senior Lecturer, advanced assistant professor"
September 19, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Just saw this academic title. It's like every word tries to undo the one before.
"Senior Lecturer, advanced assistant professor"
"Senior Lecturer, advanced assistant professor"
Sigh... another academic project website turned into an advert for online gambling. Give me 90s html not updated in decades over this anyday.
September 11, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Sigh... another academic project website turned into an advert for online gambling. Give me 90s html not updated in decades over this anyday.
Love the style of this paper. The "nativist argument" has been excluded from this list though, which has seen a massive popularization in the last decade by the populist right. One may argue it's not part of academic discourse, but it sure is part of political discourse on low fertility.
Should we be concerned about low fertility? Øystein Kravdal discusses six possible arguments in this reflection: www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
September 5, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Love the style of this paper. The "nativist argument" has been excluded from this list though, which has seen a massive popularization in the last decade by the populist right. One may argue it's not part of academic discourse, but it sure is part of political discourse on low fertility.
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
Consider joining us in beautiful Bologna for the largest gathering of population scientists in Europe…
It is also a wonderful opportunity for those of us who are based outside of Europe to catch up with the latest demographic developments in the old continent.
Hope to see you there!
It is also a wonderful opportunity for those of us who are based outside of Europe to catch up with the latest demographic developments in the old continent.
Hope to see you there!
📢 Call for submissions for European Population Conference 2026 (3–6 June, Bologna) is open! Organized by EAPS & University of Bologna.
💡 More information: www.eaps.nl/epc/european...
💡 More information: www.eaps.nl/epc/european...
EAPS.nl |
European Population Conference 2026
EAPS.nl
www.eaps.nl
September 4, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Consider joining us in beautiful Bologna for the largest gathering of population scientists in Europe…
It is also a wonderful opportunity for those of us who are based outside of Europe to catch up with the latest demographic developments in the old continent.
Hope to see you there!
It is also a wonderful opportunity for those of us who are based outside of Europe to catch up with the latest demographic developments in the old continent.
Hope to see you there!
Reposted by Jonas Schöley
Health demographers 📣
Calling for submissions to our w. @timriffe1.bsky.social
Healthy Life Expectancy methodology collection on @genus.bsky.social! We're seeking innovative approaches to statistical modelling and empirical analysis of health inequalities 📈
📆 Submission deadline: 01/06/26
🔗 Link 👇
Calling for submissions to our w. @timriffe1.bsky.social
Healthy Life Expectancy methodology collection on @genus.bsky.social! We're seeking innovative approaches to statistical modelling and empirical analysis of health inequalities 📈
📆 Submission deadline: 01/06/26
🔗 Link 👇
Healthy Life Expectancy: New Methods, New Insights
As countries worldwide experience population aging, understanding not just how long people live, but how many of those years are spent in good health, has ...
link.springer.com
September 2, 2025 at 7:01 AM
Health demographers 📣
Calling for submissions to our w. @timriffe1.bsky.social
Healthy Life Expectancy methodology collection on @genus.bsky.social! We're seeking innovative approaches to statistical modelling and empirical analysis of health inequalities 📈
📆 Submission deadline: 01/06/26
🔗 Link 👇
Calling for submissions to our w. @timriffe1.bsky.social
Healthy Life Expectancy methodology collection on @genus.bsky.social! We're seeking innovative approaches to statistical modelling and empirical analysis of health inequalities 📈
📆 Submission deadline: 01/06/26
🔗 Link 👇