Jean Fisch
@jeanfisch.bsky.social
Analysis, rationalism & objectivity are my sins
Here the link to the paper if you want a laugh
I mean, this completely crazy piece got published by "Long Dom group" based it seems in Brussels for which a quick search has not yielded much except bad experiences
www.longdom.org/open-access/...
I mean, this completely crazy piece got published by "Long Dom group" based it seems in Brussels for which a quick search has not yielded much except bad experiences
www.longdom.org/open-access/...
Longdom Publishing SL | Open Access Journals
Longdom Publishing SL is one of the leading international open access journals publishers, covering clinical, medical, and technology-oriented subjects
www.longdom.org
November 26, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Here the link to the paper if you want a laugh
I mean, this completely crazy piece got published by "Long Dom group" based it seems in Brussels for which a quick search has not yielded much except bad experiences
www.longdom.org/open-access/...
I mean, this completely crazy piece got published by "Long Dom group" based it seems in Brussels for which a quick search has not yielded much except bad experiences
www.longdom.org/open-access/...
I would love to see a detailed segment analysis of both groups to see if there is something in it and better understand exposure dynamics
November 25, 2025 at 9:38 PM
I would love to see a detailed segment analysis of both groups to see if there is something in it and better understand exposure dynamics
For instance, is there a covid ezposure bias towards lower level emplyment (requiring more physical presence at work)?
This could explain the higher cvd
This could explain the higher cvd
November 25, 2025 at 9:37 PM
For instance, is there a covid ezposure bias towards lower level emplyment (requiring more physical presence at work)?
This could explain the higher cvd
This could explain the higher cvd
Yes, that's what I meant in my rusty stats language :-)
My interest in this study is if it can help untangle the healthy / unhealthy biases
A long shot, I know
My interest in this study is if it can help untangle the healthy / unhealthy biases
A long shot, I know
November 25, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Yes, that's what I meant in my rusty stats language :-)
My interest in this study is if it can help untangle the healthy / unhealthy biases
A long shot, I know
My interest in this study is if it can help untangle the healthy / unhealthy biases
A long shot, I know
(and indeed one question is the attack rate by end 2021 ie how much the "not + test" group is "polluted" by people who got infected but didn't notice it / bother to get tested)
November 25, 2025 at 6:05 PM
(and indeed one question is the attack rate by end 2021 ie how much the "not + test" group is "polluted" by people who got infected but didn't notice it / bother to get tested)
Ah thanks both (and indeed I had missed that sentence!)
So it's an odd ratio of events after + test vs. those whose status never includes a + test
Do I understand correctly you think?
So it's an odd ratio of events after + test vs. those whose status never includes a + test
Do I understand correctly you think?
November 25, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Ah thanks both (and indeed I had missed that sentence!)
So it's an odd ratio of events after + test vs. those whose status never includes a + test
Do I understand correctly you think?
So it's an odd ratio of events after + test vs. those whose status never includes a + test
Do I understand correctly you think?
Sure ... but what did they measure (I assume) the level post infection against? those who don't have an infection?
Have you been able to find a sentence providing this info? I am still looking!
Have you been able to find a sentence providing this info? I am still looking!
November 25, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Sure ... but what did they measure (I assume) the level post infection against? those who don't have an infection?
Have you been able to find a sentence providing this info? I am still looking!
Have you been able to find a sentence providing this info? I am still looking!
Thanks but my question is what is the analysis they did so "they took the number of events post infection and compared to what?"
I know, it's a primitive question but I couldn't find the answer
:-)
I know, it's a primitive question but I couldn't find the answer
:-)
November 25, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Thanks but my question is what is the analysis they did so "they took the number of events post infection and compared to what?"
I know, it's a primitive question but I couldn't find the answer
:-)
I know, it's a primitive question but I couldn't find the answer
:-)
UK was hammered in 2020 and yet also got the mother of all flu waves end 2022 ;-)
On death displacement, Belgium actually shows that covid was not about "people going to die in 6 months anyway" but killed across the board
It saw a huge wave in Spring 2020 AND a huge heat death wave 4 months later
On death displacement, Belgium actually shows that covid was not about "people going to die in 6 months anyway" but killed across the board
It saw a huge wave in Spring 2020 AND a huge heat death wave 4 months later
November 24, 2025 at 12:28 PM
UK was hammered in 2020 and yet also got the mother of all flu waves end 2022 ;-)
On death displacement, Belgium actually shows that covid was not about "people going to die in 6 months anyway" but killed across the board
It saw a huge wave in Spring 2020 AND a huge heat death wave 4 months later
On death displacement, Belgium actually shows that covid was not about "people going to die in 6 months anyway" but killed across the board
It saw a huge wave in Spring 2020 AND a huge heat death wave 4 months later
Yes, they suspect vax to cause excess and and so far none of their paper passed my sniff test
November 24, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Yes, they suspect vax to cause excess and and so far none of their paper passed my sniff test
Overall, once you exclude flu, covid and heat, there is no notable excess death in Germany vs. LT trend of pre-pandemic mortality rates by age
So the whole paper is a theoretical exercise with a completely unbacked speculative hypothesis as conclusion
Yep: as bad as that
END
So the whole paper is a theoretical exercise with a completely unbacked speculative hypothesis as conclusion
Yep: as bad as that
END
November 24, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Overall, once you exclude flu, covid and heat, there is no notable excess death in Germany vs. LT trend of pre-pandemic mortality rates by age
So the whole paper is a theoretical exercise with a completely unbacked speculative hypothesis as conclusion
Yep: as bad as that
END
So the whole paper is a theoretical exercise with a completely unbacked speculative hypothesis as conclusion
Yep: as bad as that
END
Here the comparison of expected deaths from different sources
The paper (Kuhbandner et al) expected deaths are far higher than everybody else's including those of Destatis (NB: this is not the rapid "median" approach but that from its annual expectancy report)
The paper (Kuhbandner et al) expected deaths are far higher than everybody else's including those of Destatis (NB: this is not the rapid "median" approach but that from its annual expectancy report)
November 24, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Here the comparison of expected deaths from different sources
The paper (Kuhbandner et al) expected deaths are far higher than everybody else's including those of Destatis (NB: this is not the rapid "median" approach but that from its annual expectancy report)
The paper (Kuhbandner et al) expected deaths are far higher than everybody else's including those of Destatis (NB: this is not the rapid "median" approach but that from its annual expectancy report)
Here the comparison of covid deaths per RKI (as used in the paper) vs deaths involving covid per Destatis' monthly cause of death report on the example of Sachsen-Anhalt
You see how massive the difference is, in particular in pandemic year 3 (key to the study's "conclusion")
You see how massive the difference is, in particular in pandemic year 3 (key to the study's "conclusion")
November 24, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Here the comparison of covid deaths per RKI (as used in the paper) vs deaths involving covid per Destatis' monthly cause of death report on the example of Sachsen-Anhalt
You see how massive the difference is, in particular in pandemic year 3 (key to the study's "conclusion")
You see how massive the difference is, in particular in pandemic year 3 (key to the study's "conclusion")
I am sure @royalsocietypublishing.org is not aware of the issue
But, as it stands, it published (= endorsed) a paper suspecting vaccines to have caused massive excess deaths while the analysis does not provide any basis for this claim
Link to the paper: royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/epdf/10....
But, as it stands, it published (= endorsed) a paper suspecting vaccines to have caused massive excess deaths while the analysis does not provide any basis for this claim
Link to the paper: royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/epdf/10....
Regional patterns of excess mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic: a state-level analysis
royalsocietypublishing.org
November 24, 2025 at 8:35 AM
I am sure @royalsocietypublishing.org is not aware of the issue
But, as it stands, it published (= endorsed) a paper suspecting vaccines to have caused massive excess deaths while the analysis does not provide any basis for this claim
Link to the paper: royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/epdf/10....
But, as it stands, it published (= endorsed) a paper suspecting vaccines to have caused massive excess deaths while the analysis does not provide any basis for this claim
Link to the paper: royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/epdf/10....
There are other strange things in the paper
a) relying on RKI covid deaths which underestimate massively the actual deaths involving covid per death register
b) using expected deaths far higher than anybody else's incl the formal ones of the German Stats Office (used in their annual review)
a) relying on RKI covid deaths which underestimate massively the actual deaths involving covid per death register
b) using expected deaths far higher than anybody else's incl the formal ones of the German Stats Office (used in their annual review)
November 24, 2025 at 8:32 AM
There are other strange things in the paper
a) relying on RKI covid deaths which underestimate massively the actual deaths involving covid per death register
b) using expected deaths far higher than anybody else's incl the formal ones of the German Stats Office (used in their annual review)
a) relying on RKI covid deaths which underestimate massively the actual deaths involving covid per death register
b) using expected deaths far higher than anybody else's incl the formal ones of the German Stats Office (used in their annual review)
In fact, I remain surprised by the report: The whole inquiry was set up as a review of processes, organisation and resourcing (by interviewing people without any scientific challenge)
It is not equipped with scientists to challenge the strategy and yet ended up commenting the strategy
END
It is not equipped with scientists to challenge the strategy and yet ended up commenting the strategy
END
November 24, 2025 at 8:26 AM
In fact, I remain surprised by the report: The whole inquiry was set up as a review of processes, organisation and resourcing (by interviewing people without any scientific challenge)
It is not equipped with scientists to challenge the strategy and yet ended up commenting the strategy
END
It is not equipped with scientists to challenge the strategy and yet ended up commenting the strategy
END
It does have a basis for a critique for the wording used pre-lockdown in the UK (where the message was essentially a "keep calm and carry on" with little caution undertone whereas Sweden did recommend early distancing etc.
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November 24, 2025 at 8:25 AM
It does have a basis for a critique for the wording used pre-lockdown in the UK (where the message was essentially a "keep calm and carry on" with little caution undertone whereas Sweden did recommend early distancing etc.
3/
3/
I come to this from a decision making point of view and unless the inquiry could objectivize a threshold which is known to the people at the time, it has no basis for a critique
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November 24, 2025 at 8:23 AM
I come to this from a decision making point of view and unless the inquiry could objectivize a threshold which is known to the people at the time, it has no basis for a critique
2/
2/
I understand all that but my point is that unless the inquiry can define objective criterion which make 95% chance of a huge issue (and hence justify the societal, economic and political cost of sending everyone into lockdown), a recommendation is pretty useless
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November 24, 2025 at 8:20 AM
I understand all that but my point is that unless the inquiry can define objective criterion which make 95% chance of a huge issue (and hence justify the societal, economic and political cost of sending everyone into lockdown), a recommendation is pretty useless
1/
1/
I am not sure incidence is the right measure: To me "risk upon infection" is the one that matters
Incidence was kept artificially low early on (NPIs) so that could distort the picture as mass relaxations occurred only as of S2 2021
(I am here on principles / the data quality issue is unchanged)
Incidence was kept artificially low early on (NPIs) so that could distort the picture as mass relaxations occurred only as of S2 2021
(I am here on principles / the data quality issue is unchanged)
November 23, 2025 at 12:01 PM
I am not sure incidence is the right measure: To me "risk upon infection" is the one that matters
Incidence was kept artificially low early on (NPIs) so that could distort the picture as mass relaxations occurred only as of S2 2021
(I am here on principles / the data quality issue is unchanged)
Incidence was kept artificially low early on (NPIs) so that could distort the picture as mass relaxations occurred only as of S2 2021
(I am here on principles / the data quality issue is unchanged)
There is none to the best of my knowledge and, unfortunately, the path that led Sweden to decide on its path is based on wrong assumptions so not of any use for other countries
However, clearly Sweden hit on something (by accident a bit like penicillin) which we ought to understand and we don't
However, clearly Sweden hit on something (by accident a bit like penicillin) which we ought to understand and we don't
November 23, 2025 at 9:43 AM
There is none to the best of my knowledge and, unfortunately, the path that led Sweden to decide on its path is based on wrong assumptions so not of any use for other countries
However, clearly Sweden hit on something (by accident a bit like penicillin) which we ought to understand and we don't
However, clearly Sweden hit on something (by accident a bit like penicillin) which we ought to understand and we don't