Jean Fisch
@jeanfisch.bsky.social
Analysis, rationalism & objectivity are my sins
You may have read about this story at the time as one of its participants was an Hungarian MEP, ironically, from a party critical of homosexuality
Press reports say that he got caught after he escaped via the rain pipe and was recognized running naked across the historical square
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Press reports say that he got caught after he escaped via the rain pipe and was recognized running naked across the historical square
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November 27, 2025 at 8:06 AM
You may have read about this story at the time as one of its participants was an Hungarian MEP, ironically, from a party critical of homosexuality
Press reports say that he got caught after he escaped via the rain pipe and was recognized running naked across the historical square
4/
Press reports say that he got caught after he escaped via the rain pipe and was recognized running naked across the historical square
4/
This (PUBLISHED!) paper is gaga: Hold on tight, all from world OWID data!
- vax cannot have saved lives: excess was higher in 2021 than 2020 so 2021 excess is from vax
- 40% of the pop was vaxed so 40% of deaths was vaxed
Ergo: vaxed had 15% higher mortality than unvaxed🤪
- vax cannot have saved lives: excess was higher in 2021 than 2020 so 2021 excess is from vax
- 40% of the pop was vaxed so 40% of deaths was vaxed
Ergo: vaxed had 15% higher mortality than unvaxed🤪
November 26, 2025 at 6:48 PM
This (PUBLISHED!) paper is gaga: Hold on tight, all from world OWID data!
- vax cannot have saved lives: excess was higher in 2021 than 2020 so 2021 excess is from vax
- 40% of the pop was vaxed so 40% of deaths was vaxed
Ergo: vaxed had 15% higher mortality than unvaxed🤪
- vax cannot have saved lives: excess was higher in 2021 than 2020 so 2021 excess is from vax
- 40% of the pop was vaxed so 40% of deaths was vaxed
Ergo: vaxed had 15% higher mortality than unvaxed🤪
UK was hammered in 2020 and yet also got the mother of all flu waves end 2022 ;-)
On death displacement, Belgium actually shows that covid was not about "people going to die in 6 months anyway" but killed across the board
It saw a huge wave in Spring 2020 AND a huge heat death wave 4 months later
On death displacement, Belgium actually shows that covid was not about "people going to die in 6 months anyway" but killed across the board
It saw a huge wave in Spring 2020 AND a huge heat death wave 4 months later
November 24, 2025 at 12:28 PM
UK was hammered in 2020 and yet also got the mother of all flu waves end 2022 ;-)
On death displacement, Belgium actually shows that covid was not about "people going to die in 6 months anyway" but killed across the board
It saw a huge wave in Spring 2020 AND a huge heat death wave 4 months later
On death displacement, Belgium actually shows that covid was not about "people going to die in 6 months anyway" but killed across the board
It saw a huge wave in Spring 2020 AND a huge heat death wave 4 months later
Overall, once you exclude flu, covid and heat, there is no notable excess death in Germany vs. LT trend of pre-pandemic mortality rates by age
So the whole paper is a theoretical exercise with a completely unbacked speculative hypothesis as conclusion
Yep: as bad as that
END
So the whole paper is a theoretical exercise with a completely unbacked speculative hypothesis as conclusion
Yep: as bad as that
END
November 24, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Overall, once you exclude flu, covid and heat, there is no notable excess death in Germany vs. LT trend of pre-pandemic mortality rates by age
So the whole paper is a theoretical exercise with a completely unbacked speculative hypothesis as conclusion
Yep: as bad as that
END
So the whole paper is a theoretical exercise with a completely unbacked speculative hypothesis as conclusion
Yep: as bad as that
END
Here the comparison of expected deaths from different sources
The paper (Kuhbandner et al) expected deaths are far higher than everybody else's including those of Destatis (NB: this is not the rapid "median" approach but that from its annual expectancy report)
The paper (Kuhbandner et al) expected deaths are far higher than everybody else's including those of Destatis (NB: this is not the rapid "median" approach but that from its annual expectancy report)
November 24, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Here the comparison of expected deaths from different sources
The paper (Kuhbandner et al) expected deaths are far higher than everybody else's including those of Destatis (NB: this is not the rapid "median" approach but that from its annual expectancy report)
The paper (Kuhbandner et al) expected deaths are far higher than everybody else's including those of Destatis (NB: this is not the rapid "median" approach but that from its annual expectancy report)
Here the comparison of covid deaths per RKI (as used in the paper) vs deaths involving covid per Destatis' monthly cause of death report on the example of Sachsen-Anhalt
You see how massive the difference is, in particular in pandemic year 3 (key to the study's "conclusion")
You see how massive the difference is, in particular in pandemic year 3 (key to the study's "conclusion")
November 24, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Here the comparison of covid deaths per RKI (as used in the paper) vs deaths involving covid per Destatis' monthly cause of death report on the example of Sachsen-Anhalt
You see how massive the difference is, in particular in pandemic year 3 (key to the study's "conclusion")
You see how massive the difference is, in particular in pandemic year 3 (key to the study's "conclusion")
Quick warning: A paper published by @royalsocietypublishing.org on mortality by State in Germany found that "the higher the vaccination rate, the higher the increase in excess in pandemic yr 3 vs 2"
The paper suspects vaccines as a cause... without a word on the huge flu wave that hit DE in yr 3 🙄
The paper suspects vaccines as a cause... without a word on the huge flu wave that hit DE in yr 3 🙄
November 24, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Quick warning: A paper published by @royalsocietypublishing.org on mortality by State in Germany found that "the higher the vaccination rate, the higher the increase in excess in pandemic yr 3 vs 2"
The paper suspects vaccines as a cause... without a word on the huge flu wave that hit DE in yr 3 🙄
The paper suspects vaccines as a cause... without a word on the huge flu wave that hit DE in yr 3 🙄
Here a third view: ECDC on 14/3/20
UK had 600 cases / Germany 2600
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www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/defaul...
UK had 600 cases / Germany 2600
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www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/defaul...
November 23, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Here a third view: ECDC on 14/3/20
UK had 600 cases / Germany 2600
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www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/defaul...
UK had 600 cases / Germany 2600
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www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/defaul...
OK, you will object: "but we knew from Italy that armaggedon was upon our doors"
So here the report of ISS of 10/3: Clearly there were deaths in Lombardy: 600 in a region of 20m
So is that the criterion that the UK should have acted upon 5d later? No input
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www.corriere.it/salute/malat...
So here the report of ISS of 10/3: Clearly there were deaths in Lombardy: 600 in a region of 20m
So is that the criterion that the UK should have acted upon 5d later? No input
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www.corriere.it/salute/malat...
November 23, 2025 at 9:33 AM
OK, you will object: "but we knew from Italy that armaggedon was upon our doors"
So here the report of ISS of 10/3: Clearly there were deaths in Lombardy: 600 in a region of 20m
So is that the criterion that the UK should have acted upon 5d later? No input
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www.corriere.it/salute/malat...
So here the report of ISS of 10/3: Clearly there were deaths in Lombardy: 600 in a region of 20m
So is that the criterion that the UK should have acted upon 5d later? No input
2/
www.corriere.it/salute/malat...
Let me show how useless the conclusion of UK's covid inquiry is that "UK should have locked down 1 wk earlier"
Here the report of GOV UK of 10/3/2020:
- 373 cases, flatish
- 6 deaths
Is that the threshold to close 5d later next time (and take the full societal and economic hit)?
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Here the report of GOV UK of 10/3/2020:
- 373 cases, flatish
- 6 deaths
Is that the threshold to close 5d later next time (and take the full societal and economic hit)?
1/
November 23, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Let me show how useless the conclusion of UK's covid inquiry is that "UK should have locked down 1 wk earlier"
Here the report of GOV UK of 10/3/2020:
- 373 cases, flatish
- 6 deaths
Is that the threshold to close 5d later next time (and take the full societal and economic hit)?
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Here the report of GOV UK of 10/3/2020:
- 373 cases, flatish
- 6 deaths
Is that the threshold to close 5d later next time (and take the full societal and economic hit)?
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This one is to be framed: The covid pandemic debate since 2020, here illustrated on lockdowns
(extract from @whippletom.bsky.social's brilliant piece in the times yesterday: www.thetimes.com/article/3c7c...)
(extract from @whippletom.bsky.social's brilliant piece in the times yesterday: www.thetimes.com/article/3c7c...)
November 22, 2025 at 10:14 AM
This one is to be framed: The covid pandemic debate since 2020, here illustrated on lockdowns
(extract from @whippletom.bsky.social's brilliant piece in the times yesterday: www.thetimes.com/article/3c7c...)
(extract from @whippletom.bsky.social's brilliant piece in the times yesterday: www.thetimes.com/article/3c7c...)
Why? Because from the covid death data, DK had lower covid circulation during high severity period
Imagine how much better SE would have fared than it did if it had managed its pandemic with the low circulation of DK!
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Imagine how much better SE would have fared than it did if it had managed its pandemic with the low circulation of DK!
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November 22, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Why? Because from the covid death data, DK had lower covid circulation during high severity period
Imagine how much better SE would have fared than it did if it had managed its pandemic with the low circulation of DK!
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Imagine how much better SE would have fared than it did if it had managed its pandemic with the low circulation of DK!
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Quick reality check for the "UK should have just followed the Swedish example" aficionados
If you believe that the raw figures of SE are telling for the UK, then logic tells you that UK/SE should have done what DK did😉
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If you believe that the raw figures of SE are telling for the UK, then logic tells you that UK/SE should have done what DK did😉
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November 22, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Quick reality check for the "UK should have just followed the Swedish example" aficionados
If you believe that the raw figures of SE are telling for the UK, then logic tells you that UK/SE should have done what DK did😉
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If you believe that the raw figures of SE are telling for the UK, then logic tells you that UK/SE should have done what DK did😉
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@cbsstatistiek.bsky.social (the Dutch Statistics Office) released today its monthly deaths by cause report up to May 2025
Here the situation for cancer vs. pre-pandemic trends
Here the situation for cancer vs. pre-pandemic trends
November 21, 2025 at 5:57 PM
@cbsstatistiek.bsky.social (the Dutch Statistics Office) released today its monthly deaths by cause report up to May 2025
Here the situation for cancer vs. pre-pandemic trends
Here the situation for cancer vs. pre-pandemic trends
I find the conclusion line of UK's covid inquiry poor
- "be more prudent next time" has zero actionable value
- Rationale put forward relies on counterfactuals and does not include that measures only delay never avoid
However, most of the report's critique is equally poor
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- "be more prudent next time" has zero actionable value
- Rationale put forward relies on counterfactuals and does not include that measures only delay never avoid
However, most of the report's critique is equally poor
1/
November 21, 2025 at 9:15 AM
I find the conclusion line of UK's covid inquiry poor
- "be more prudent next time" has zero actionable value
- Rationale put forward relies on counterfactuals and does not include that measures only delay never avoid
However, most of the report's critique is equally poor
1/
- "be more prudent next time" has zero actionable value
- Rationale put forward relies on counterfactuals and does not include that measures only delay never avoid
However, most of the report's critique is equally poor
1/
CDC has created a page on autism and vaccines which says
So far, nobody has been able to unequivocally rule out a link
(among others, it claims that the large studies showing no link - all done outside the US - are not applicable to the US because of vax schedule differences)
So far, nobody has been able to unequivocally rule out a link
(among others, it claims that the large studies showing no link - all done outside the US - are not applicable to the US because of vax schedule differences)
November 20, 2025 at 7:45 AM
CDC has created a page on autism and vaccines which says
So far, nobody has been able to unequivocally rule out a link
(among others, it claims that the large studies showing no link - all done outside the US - are not applicable to the US because of vax schedule differences)
So far, nobody has been able to unequivocally rule out a link
(among others, it claims that the large studies showing no link - all done outside the US - are not applicable to the US because of vax schedule differences)
So, in summary:
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
November 16, 2025 at 8:49 AM
So, in summary:
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
In fact, ONS was the 1st stats office to release mortality data by vax status and it is thanks to that data that these biases from vaccination status emerged
(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
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(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
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November 16, 2025 at 8:48 AM
In fact, ONS was the 1st stats office to release mortality data by vax status and it is thanks to that data that these biases from vaccination status emerged
(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
5/
(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
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Sigh... "Could vaccines have caused big excess in England?" is brought up again by a British newspaper
So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
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So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
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November 16, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Sigh... "Could vaccines have caused big excess in England?" is brought up again by a British newspaper
So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
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So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
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I missed this interesting paper: Swedish pharma-surveillance scientists reviewed the 456 reports of suspected fatality post vax in Sweden
They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
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They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
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November 14, 2025 at 4:47 PM
I missed this interesting paper: Swedish pharma-surveillance scientists reviewed the 456 reports of suspected fatality post vax in Sweden
They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
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They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
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Another interesting thing is that waves are clearly bi-annual there and it looks as if this will continue this summer there (as there is a very small uptick)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
November 14, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Another interesting thing is that waves are clearly bi-annual there and it looks as if this will continue this summer there (as there is a very small uptick)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
Also in Australia, covid cases, ICU and deaths evolve in sync with the expected delay of a week between each state
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections
November 14, 2025 at 7:07 AM
Also in Australia, covid cases, ICU and deaths evolve in sync with the expected delay of a week between each state
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections
Covid is now clearly on a downward path in England too
(I remain full of admiration if this were to be the result of dark forces faking the presence of virus: Remember, this requires to phase the peaks with 7 days between cases, admissions and deaths and this across the whole health sector!)
(I remain full of admiration if this were to be the result of dark forces faking the presence of virus: Remember, this requires to phase the peaks with 7 days between cases, admissions and deaths and this across the whole health sector!)
November 13, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Covid is now clearly on a downward path in England too
(I remain full of admiration if this were to be the result of dark forces faking the presence of virus: Remember, this requires to phase the peaks with 7 days between cases, admissions and deaths and this across the whole health sector!)
(I remain full of admiration if this were to be the result of dark forces faking the presence of virus: Remember, this requires to phase the peaks with 7 days between cases, admissions and deaths and this across the whole health sector!)
The illusion of a virus continues to be carried out to perfection in Germany:
- the personnel in the dozens of labs who establish + cases
- the nurses / doctors who report covid cases in hospitals
- the deaths registrars
managed to fake another synchronized downturn of covid
😀
- the personnel in the dozens of labs who establish + cases
- the nurses / doctors who report covid cases in hospitals
- the deaths registrars
managed to fake another synchronized downturn of covid
😀
November 11, 2025 at 12:04 PM
The illusion of a virus continues to be carried out to perfection in Germany:
- the personnel in the dozens of labs who establish + cases
- the nurses / doctors who report covid cases in hospitals
- the deaths registrars
managed to fake another synchronized downturn of covid
😀
- the personnel in the dozens of labs who establish + cases
- the nurses / doctors who report covid cases in hospitals
- the deaths registrars
managed to fake another synchronized downturn of covid
😀
c) The study does not explain why it's ok to use non-concordant periods for comparison
It took cases from Jan 20 to Mar 22 and vax from Aug 21 to Dec 21 There may be a good statistical reason but it escapes me (and no explanation is offered)
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It took cases from Jan 20 to Mar 22 and vax from Aug 21 to Dec 21 There may be a good statistical reason but it escapes me (and no explanation is offered)
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November 5, 2025 at 10:20 AM
c) The study does not explain why it's ok to use non-concordant periods for comparison
It took cases from Jan 20 to Mar 22 and vax from Aug 21 to Dec 21 There may be a good statistical reason but it escapes me (and no explanation is offered)
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It took cases from Jan 20 to Mar 22 and vax from Aug 21 to Dec 21 There may be a good statistical reason but it escapes me (and no explanation is offered)
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