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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 5h

I think that's a waste of time because they are bound by their engagement rules

Without further knowledge
- Either there is a way to challenge in civil courts the indemnity level
- Or one needs to change the law defining the indemnity levels

Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 8h

Remember, the reason I did my estimate is that I want to see "rough cut" if any winter excess is easily explained by flu/rsv outbreaks (and covid if active) or if there is an "unexplained" part

So I am not looking for statistical cleanness and excellence ;-)

Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 8h

Interesting point 2: The indemnity

The court condemned the State (formally the Health Ministry) to pay a monthly indemnity rather than a lump sum

The indemnity seems of an amount proportional to the life-changing impact of the illness rather than a preset amount

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 8h

Interesting point 1: A key element in the court's positive decision was that her treating consultant wrote "a link with the vaccination cannot be excluded"

(I assume the timely association did too)

The court asked two experts who confirmed that view

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 8h

Interesting case on vaccine injuries in Italy: A civil tribunal condemned the Italian State to pay a woman an indemnity of €3k per month after she developed symptoms 1 week after the second dose which eventually led to her to no longer be able to walk
www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2025/10/14/d...

Danni neurologici da vaccino Covid: Tribunale condanna il Ministero a pagare

Il Tribunale di Asti ha riconosciuto il nesso tra vaccino Covid e gravi danni neurologici, condannando il Ministero della Salute a pagare un indennizzo mensile.

www.ilfattoquotidiano.it

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 12h

What I realized also is that being wrong on the baseline does not matter that much because flu is so spiky

It's a bit the same as with wave 1 of covid / you saw "big numbers" whether you compared with expected without or with corrections for population growth

But, yes, there is an assumption

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 12h

As said, it's the MOMO approach (you can read it on their site, they are quite open about it)

Indeed, the amplitude of the sin curve requires an assumption, obviously and what MOMO uses is that Flu is so "spiked" in Europe (8 weeks usually) which allows you to guestimate the peak

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 12h

Indeed, good point: Here a chart / you are higher except for 22/23 where we come to the same result

FWIW, your's is a bit closer to the flu burden as calculated by CDC pre-pandemic ... and a bit lower during the pandemic year

Let's call that a draw? :-)

(just kidding of course!)

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 23h

I do that also for each country in western Europe

Despite my approach being quite crude (sinusoid plus a linear death trend line), the result is quite close to national flu burden calculations

(the reason is that the winter flu spike is so high that a little error on the baseline is irrelevant)

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 23h

Interesting, I did something similar but used the "MOMO" approach ie
- fit a sinusoid onto spring / autumn values
- highlight winter deaths (excl covid) beyond expected in high ILI weeks
It's a simple way to estimate flu deaths (the data is confounded as it also includes cold and RSV deaths)