Georgina Sturge
@georginasturge.bsky.social
Statistics expert and writer, formerly of the House of Commons Library. New book 'Sum of Us' out now 🙌📊 Also author of critically acclaimed 'Bad Data' (2022).
Does the Chancellor have good enough information to make the important decisions that will shape this week's budget?
That's the question I put to economist Jonathan Portes in the very first episode of new podcast Talk Data to Me ⬇️
open.spotify.com/episode/6Txz...
That's the question I put to economist Jonathan Portes in the very first episode of new podcast Talk Data to Me ⬇️
open.spotify.com/episode/6Txz...
Are we flying blind on the economy? with Jonathan Portes
open.spotify.com
November 25, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Does the Chancellor have good enough information to make the important decisions that will shape this week's budget?
That's the question I put to economist Jonathan Portes in the very first episode of new podcast Talk Data to Me ⬇️
open.spotify.com/episode/6Txz...
That's the question I put to economist Jonathan Portes in the very first episode of new podcast Talk Data to Me ⬇️
open.spotify.com/episode/6Txz...
I'm thrilled to announce that Talk Data to Me now has a podcast.
My first guest is Jonathan Portes, Professor of Economics at Kings, who talked to me about recent problems with UK economic data & budget challenges for the Chancellor.
Available to listen now 🔊
open.spotify.com/episode/6Txz...
My first guest is Jonathan Portes, Professor of Economics at Kings, who talked to me about recent problems with UK economic data & budget challenges for the Chancellor.
Available to listen now 🔊
open.spotify.com/episode/6Txz...
Are we flying blind on the economy? with Jonathan Portes
open.spotify.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:44 PM
I'm thrilled to announce that Talk Data to Me now has a podcast.
My first guest is Jonathan Portes, Professor of Economics at Kings, who talked to me about recent problems with UK economic data & budget challenges for the Chancellor.
Available to listen now 🔊
open.spotify.com/episode/6Txz...
My first guest is Jonathan Portes, Professor of Economics at Kings, who talked to me about recent problems with UK economic data & budget challenges for the Chancellor.
Available to listen now 🔊
open.spotify.com/episode/6Txz...
I'm very pleased to share this invitation to this year's Migration Statistics User Forum, which I'll be chairing on 11 December (11:00 to 16:00).
It's a great opportunity to directly question the producers of statistics. And it's online and free. Join us!
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/migration-...
It's a great opportunity to directly question the producers of statistics. And it's online and free. Join us!
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/migration-...
Migration Statistics User Forum 2025
A webinar for users and producers of international migration statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Home Office.
www.eventbrite.co.uk
November 18, 2025 at 10:57 AM
I'm very pleased to share this invitation to this year's Migration Statistics User Forum, which I'll be chairing on 11 December (11:00 to 16:00).
It's a great opportunity to directly question the producers of statistics. And it's online and free. Join us!
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/migration-...
It's a great opportunity to directly question the producers of statistics. And it's online and free. Join us!
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/migration-...
Nice and clear explainer from the ONS on the changes made to their migration methods today:
blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/11/18/u...
blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/11/18/u...
Updating our methods to improve EU and British migration statistics
For the first time, UK long-term international migration statistics no longer rely on survey data but are, instead, produced using administrative data. While this is a landmark moment and gives us an
blog.ons.gov.uk
November 18, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Nice and clear explainer from the ONS on the changes made to their migration methods today:
blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/11/18/u...
blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/11/18/u...
New migration estimates released today reflect major updates to the ONS's methods.
Main takeaways:
* Past British emigration underestimated
* EU emigration overestimated
* New net migration peak of 944,000 in 2022-23, followed by bigger fall than previously thought
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Main takeaways:
* Past British emigration underestimated
* EU emigration overestimated
* New net migration peak of 944,000 in 2022-23, followed by bigger fall than previously thought
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Improving long-term international migration statistics; updating our methods and estimates
- Office for National Statistics
Revised estimates for UK long-term international migration using updated data and new methods to estimate British national and EU+ migration. These are official statistics in development.
www.ons.gov.uk
November 18, 2025 at 10:37 AM
New migration estimates released today reflect major updates to the ONS's methods.
Main takeaways:
* Past British emigration underestimated
* EU emigration overestimated
* New net migration peak of 944,000 in 2022-23, followed by bigger fall than previously thought
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Main takeaways:
* Past British emigration underestimated
* EU emigration overestimated
* New net migration peak of 944,000 in 2022-23, followed by bigger fall than previously thought
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Could Denmark be a role model for the UK on asylum? This is worth a read if you want to understand the basic challenges each country faces and how well the same approach could copy over.
georginasturge.substack.com/p/fortress-o...
georginasturge.substack.com/p/fortress-o...
Fortress of the North
Could the UK copy Denmark's strict asylum policy? Data may hold the answer.
georginasturge.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Could Denmark be a role model for the UK on asylum? This is worth a read if you want to understand the basic challenges each country faces and how well the same approach could copy over.
georginasturge.substack.com/p/fortress-o...
georginasturge.substack.com/p/fortress-o...
Also curious to know if anyone has a source for this. I'm seeing it in virtually every news item on Denmark and asylum.
Lots of claims in the press over the last few days that Denmark returns 95% of people refused asylum- anyone found a source for that which isn’t a UK media story? The Danish Returns Agency stats don’t seem to have been updated since March 2023 eng.hjemst.dk/figures-and-...
Latest figures for returns of foreign nationals
eng.hjemst.dk
November 14, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Also curious to know if anyone has a source for this. I'm seeing it in virtually every news item on Denmark and asylum.
The 2031 UK census is going ahead after all and the public now has an opportunity to shape how it looks.
What do you think should be asked in the census that isn't in there already? Or are there too many questions as it is?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
What do you think should be asked in the census that isn't in there already? Or are there too many questions as it is?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
If you could poll everyone in the country, what would you ask?
Seeking suggestions for the 2031 UK census 🔎
georginasturge.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 10:23 AM
The 2031 UK census is going ahead after all and the public now has an opportunity to shape how it looks.
What do you think should be asked in the census that isn't in there already? Or are there too many questions as it is?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
What do you think should be asked in the census that isn't in there already? Or are there too many questions as it is?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
Reposted by Georgina Sturge
Now that the 2031 UK census is going ahead, the ONS has to decide what's going to be in it.
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
November 11, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Now that the 2031 UK census is going ahead, the ONS has to decide what's going to be in it.
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
Now that the 2031 UK census is going ahead, the ONS has to decide what's going to be in it.
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
November 11, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Now that the 2031 UK census is going ahead, the ONS has to decide what's going to be in it.
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
The Spectator's Michael Simmons has gathered lots of recent examples of bad data together in this eye-opening piece.
www.spectator.co.uk/article/data...
www.spectator.co.uk/article/data...
Datageddon: Britain's stats have become dangerously unreliable
There were cheers in the Treasury last month as the nation’s statisticians discovered a spare £3 billion down the back of the sofa. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) admitted that VAT receipts ...
www.spectator.co.uk
October 31, 2025 at 9:02 AM
The Spectator's Michael Simmons has gathered lots of recent examples of bad data together in this eye-opening piece.
www.spectator.co.uk/article/data...
www.spectator.co.uk/article/data...
Reposted by Georgina Sturge
Why do people *not* respond to the Labour Force Survey? For a while the biggest problem was thought to be failure to make contact with the sampled households.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
October 23, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Why do people *not* respond to the Labour Force Survey? For a while the biggest problem was thought to be failure to make contact with the sampled households.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
Why do people *not* respond to the Labour Force Survey? For a while the biggest problem was thought to be failure to make contact with the sampled households.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
October 23, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Why do people *not* respond to the Labour Force Survey? For a while the biggest problem was thought to be failure to make contact with the sampled households.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
Household surveys are vitally important to public policy but response rates are in crisis. Following heavy criticism, the UK's statistical authorities say they're finally getting a grip on the issue.
Might we already be seeing some signs of recovery?
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Might we already be seeing some signs of recovery?
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Are there cautious signs of recovery for UK statistics?
The all-important Labour Force Survey shows some signs of bouncing back
open.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 7:52 AM
Household surveys are vitally important to public policy but response rates are in crisis. Following heavy criticism, the UK's statistical authorities say they're finally getting a grip on the issue.
Might we already be seeing some signs of recovery?
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Might we already be seeing some signs of recovery?
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
My main feeling about these kinds of poll is that they miss something crucial which is *why* people think we were wrong to leave.
Brexit voters who now say it was the wrong decision are usually signalling discontent with how it was handled, though they'd still back the principle of leaving.
Brexit voters who now say it was the wrong decision are usually signalling discontent with how it was handled, though they'd still back the principle of leaving.
Ah! Good morning, reality. And welcome. We’ve been expecting you…
October 20, 2025 at 8:36 AM
My main feeling about these kinds of poll is that they miss something crucial which is *why* people think we were wrong to leave.
Brexit voters who now say it was the wrong decision are usually signalling discontent with how it was handled, though they'd still back the principle of leaving.
Brexit voters who now say it was the wrong decision are usually signalling discontent with how it was handled, though they'd still back the principle of leaving.
Reposted by Georgina Sturge
To understand the UK, you must carefully study this map. Tells you all you need to know 🥔 ✂️ (I could find a crisps / chips emoji)
October 15, 2025 at 6:26 AM
To understand the UK, you must carefully study this map. Tells you all you need to know 🥔 ✂️ (I could find a crisps / chips emoji)
I did some quick analysis of who has been signing the e-petition against digital ID and the results are interesting.
Nothing very surprising when comparing signatures per constituency with share voting Reform in 2024.
The picture for Labour is a bit more troubling…
Nothing very surprising when comparing signatures per constituency with share voting Reform in 2024.
The picture for Labour is a bit more troubling…
October 10, 2025 at 12:03 PM
I did some quick analysis of who has been signing the e-petition against digital ID and the results are interesting.
Nothing very surprising when comparing signatures per constituency with share voting Reform in 2024.
The picture for Labour is a bit more troubling…
Nothing very surprising when comparing signatures per constituency with share voting Reform in 2024.
The picture for Labour is a bit more troubling…
Some thoughts on the Chancellor's data difficulties in my Substack post this week ⬇️
Plus, oh yes, I'm still keeping my beady eye on digital ID, and the public reaction so far is not looking good...
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Plus, oh yes, I'm still keeping my beady eye on digital ID, and the public reaction so far is not looking good...
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
October 9, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Some thoughts on the Chancellor's data difficulties in my Substack post this week ⬇️
Plus, oh yes, I'm still keeping my beady eye on digital ID, and the public reaction so far is not looking good...
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Plus, oh yes, I'm still keeping my beady eye on digital ID, and the public reaction so far is not looking good...
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Nice view of Somerset House at low tide back when it housed the General Records Office. The embankment now separates the building's facade from the river, and the bridge has been replaced by a bigger concrete one.
'London, a view of Somerset House seen through an arch of Waterloo Bridge' (c.1865) by Henry Pether
(Private collection)
(Private collection)
October 9, 2025 at 8:03 AM
Nice view of Somerset House at low tide back when it housed the General Records Office. The embankment now separates the building's facade from the river, and the bridge has been replaced by a bigger concrete one.
Well this is a new one for me and something that belongs in an update of Bad Data (and in Sum of Us).
Italians mistakenly identified as Roma on Scottish Census.
www.thetimes.com/article/f1ff...
Italians mistakenly identified as Roma on Scottish Census.
www.thetimes.com/article/f1ff...
Italians mistakenly identifying as Roma on botched Scottish census
Statisticians said results should be treated with caution as some people had mixed up the ethnic Gypsy group with the Italian capital city
www.thetimes.com
October 8, 2025 at 6:29 AM
Well this is a new one for me and something that belongs in an update of Bad Data (and in Sum of Us).
Italians mistakenly identified as Roma on Scottish Census.
www.thetimes.com/article/f1ff...
Italians mistakenly identified as Roma on Scottish Census.
www.thetimes.com/article/f1ff...
Economic forecasts are *always* revised & the swing can be substantial. Add to that the OBR choosing this moment to revise productivity figures going back 10 years.
Bad data strikes again, leaving the Chancellor with a fiscal headache & massive PR challenge ⬇️
www.thetimes.com/article/83c5...
Bad data strikes again, leaving the Chancellor with a fiscal headache & massive PR challenge ⬇️
www.thetimes.com/article/83c5...
October 4, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Economic forecasts are *always* revised & the swing can be substantial. Add to that the OBR choosing this moment to revise productivity figures going back 10 years.
Bad data strikes again, leaving the Chancellor with a fiscal headache & massive PR challenge ⬇️
www.thetimes.com/article/83c5...
Bad data strikes again, leaving the Chancellor with a fiscal headache & massive PR challenge ⬇️
www.thetimes.com/article/83c5...
Very astute piece.
The unification of data systems that was already going on quietly in the background could be at risk now because it's being publicly framed as part of the move to a 'papers please' society.
The unification of data systems that was already going on quietly in the background could be at risk now because it's being publicly framed as part of the move to a 'papers please' society.
September 29, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Very astute piece.
The unification of data systems that was already going on quietly in the background could be at risk now because it's being publicly framed as part of the move to a 'papers please' society.
The unification of data systems that was already going on quietly in the background could be at risk now because it's being publicly framed as part of the move to a 'papers please' society.
Reposted by Georgina Sturge
Timely account of the fascinating history of data in our politics!
It shows how much of the data collection that's defined our sense of who we are as a society across history comes down to a mix of accident, contingency & bias (& plenty of genuine concern for human welfare & a better society too!)
It shows how much of the data collection that's defined our sense of who we are as a society across history comes down to a mix of accident, contingency & bias (& plenty of genuine concern for human welfare & a better society too!)
Spotted by a contact at the Labour conference in Liverpool! 🙌
Want to better understand our complicated, love-hate relationship with ID cards, population registers, data privacy, and being counted and put in boxes by the state?
Head down to the conference bookshop (?) to pick up a copy!
Want to better understand our complicated, love-hate relationship with ID cards, population registers, data privacy, and being counted and put in boxes by the state?
Head down to the conference bookshop (?) to pick up a copy!
September 29, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Timely account of the fascinating history of data in our politics!
It shows how much of the data collection that's defined our sense of who we are as a society across history comes down to a mix of accident, contingency & bias (& plenty of genuine concern for human welfare & a better society too!)
It shows how much of the data collection that's defined our sense of who we are as a society across history comes down to a mix of accident, contingency & bias (& plenty of genuine concern for human welfare & a better society too!)
Spotted by a contact at the Labour conference in Liverpool! 🙌
Want to better understand our complicated, love-hate relationship with ID cards, population registers, data privacy, and being counted and put in boxes by the state?
Head down to the conference bookshop (?) to pick up a copy!
Want to better understand our complicated, love-hate relationship with ID cards, population registers, data privacy, and being counted and put in boxes by the state?
Head down to the conference bookshop (?) to pick up a copy!
September 29, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Spotted by a contact at the Labour conference in Liverpool! 🙌
Want to better understand our complicated, love-hate relationship with ID cards, population registers, data privacy, and being counted and put in boxes by the state?
Head down to the conference bookshop (?) to pick up a copy!
Want to better understand our complicated, love-hate relationship with ID cards, population registers, data privacy, and being counted and put in boxes by the state?
Head down to the conference bookshop (?) to pick up a copy!
Wake up in the morning feeling like T Blair...
🪪 ID cards are back! This time it's digital. 🪪
"YouGov ran a snap poll yesterday in which support had fallen to just 42% while opposition stood at 44%. At the time of writing, a parliamentary petition against ID cards is heading towards two million signatures."
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
"YouGov ran a snap poll yesterday in which support had fallen to just 42% while opposition stood at 44%. At the time of writing, a parliamentary petition against ID cards is heading towards two million signatures."
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
ID cards are back! This time it's digital.
If the government wants to avoid a re-run of the 2000s, it must fully convince us of the benefits this time.
open.substack.com
September 27, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Wake up in the morning feeling like T Blair...