Georgina Sturge
@georginasturge.bsky.social
Statistics expert and writer, formerly of the House of Commons Library. New book 'Sum of Us' out now 🙌📊 Also author of critically acclaimed 'Bad Data' (2022).
Now that the 2031 UK census is going ahead, the ONS has to decide what's going to be in it.
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
November 11, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Now that the 2031 UK census is going ahead, the ONS has to decide what's going to be in it.
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
For that they've asked the public to submit ideas for new questions. Could this be a terrible idea? And what would you like to know about 70 million people?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/if-you-cou...
Why do people *not* respond to the Labour Force Survey? For a while the biggest problem was thought to be failure to make contact with the sampled households.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
October 23, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Why do people *not* respond to the Labour Force Survey? For a while the biggest problem was thought to be failure to make contact with the sampled households.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
New data suggests by far the bigger problem - arguably more worrying - is people knowing they've been invited but refusing to take part.
There’s no clear pattern of opposition to digital ID in seats with a high Labour share (almost all of which Labour won). Seems like this has become a great unifier, or perhaps that’s just people reacting badly to anything announced by Keir Starmer at the moment…?
October 10, 2025 at 12:03 PM
There’s no clear pattern of opposition to digital ID in seats with a high Labour share (almost all of which Labour won). Seems like this has become a great unifier, or perhaps that’s just people reacting badly to anything announced by Keir Starmer at the moment…?
I did some quick analysis of who has been signing the e-petition against digital ID and the results are interesting.
Nothing very surprising when comparing signatures per constituency with share voting Reform in 2024.
The picture for Labour is a bit more troubling…
Nothing very surprising when comparing signatures per constituency with share voting Reform in 2024.
The picture for Labour is a bit more troubling…
October 10, 2025 at 12:03 PM
I did some quick analysis of who has been signing the e-petition against digital ID and the results are interesting.
Nothing very surprising when comparing signatures per constituency with share voting Reform in 2024.
The picture for Labour is a bit more troubling…
Nothing very surprising when comparing signatures per constituency with share voting Reform in 2024.
The picture for Labour is a bit more troubling…
Some thoughts on the Chancellor's data difficulties in my Substack post this week ⬇️
Plus, oh yes, I'm still keeping my beady eye on digital ID, and the public reaction so far is not looking good...
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Plus, oh yes, I'm still keeping my beady eye on digital ID, and the public reaction so far is not looking good...
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
October 9, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Some thoughts on the Chancellor's data difficulties in my Substack post this week ⬇️
Plus, oh yes, I'm still keeping my beady eye on digital ID, and the public reaction so far is not looking good...
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Plus, oh yes, I'm still keeping my beady eye on digital ID, and the public reaction so far is not looking good...
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Economic forecasts are *always* revised & the swing can be substantial. Add to that the OBR choosing this moment to revise productivity figures going back 10 years.
Bad data strikes again, leaving the Chancellor with a fiscal headache & massive PR challenge ⬇️
www.thetimes.com/article/83c5...
Bad data strikes again, leaving the Chancellor with a fiscal headache & massive PR challenge ⬇️
www.thetimes.com/article/83c5...
October 4, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Economic forecasts are *always* revised & the swing can be substantial. Add to that the OBR choosing this moment to revise productivity figures going back 10 years.
Bad data strikes again, leaving the Chancellor with a fiscal headache & massive PR challenge ⬇️
www.thetimes.com/article/83c5...
Bad data strikes again, leaving the Chancellor with a fiscal headache & massive PR challenge ⬇️
www.thetimes.com/article/83c5...
Very astute piece.
The unification of data systems that was already going on quietly in the background could be at risk now because it's being publicly framed as part of the move to a 'papers please' society.
The unification of data systems that was already going on quietly in the background could be at risk now because it's being publicly framed as part of the move to a 'papers please' society.
September 29, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Very astute piece.
The unification of data systems that was already going on quietly in the background could be at risk now because it's being publicly framed as part of the move to a 'papers please' society.
The unification of data systems that was already going on quietly in the background could be at risk now because it's being publicly framed as part of the move to a 'papers please' society.
Spotted by a contact at the Labour conference in Liverpool! 🙌
Want to better understand our complicated, love-hate relationship with ID cards, population registers, data privacy, and being counted and put in boxes by the state?
Head down to the conference bookshop (?) to pick up a copy!
Want to better understand our complicated, love-hate relationship with ID cards, population registers, data privacy, and being counted and put in boxes by the state?
Head down to the conference bookshop (?) to pick up a copy!
September 29, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Spotted by a contact at the Labour conference in Liverpool! 🙌
Want to better understand our complicated, love-hate relationship with ID cards, population registers, data privacy, and being counted and put in boxes by the state?
Head down to the conference bookshop (?) to pick up a copy!
Want to better understand our complicated, love-hate relationship with ID cards, population registers, data privacy, and being counted and put in boxes by the state?
Head down to the conference bookshop (?) to pick up a copy!
Want to know how digital ID works, what it would involve, why we don't have it already, and why the last time we tried to have an identity register it went tits up very fast?
It's the perfect time to get hold of a copy of Sum of Us (e- and audio-books also available)!
It's the perfect time to get hold of a copy of Sum of Us (e- and audio-books also available)!
September 26, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Want to know how digital ID works, what it would involve, why we don't have it already, and why the last time we tried to have an identity register it went tits up very fast?
It's the perfect time to get hold of a copy of Sum of Us (e- and audio-books also available)!
It's the perfect time to get hold of a copy of Sum of Us (e- and audio-books also available)!
Want to know how digital ID works, what it would involve, why we don't have it already, and why the last time we tried to have an identity register it went tits up very fast?
It's the perfect time to get hold of a copy of Sum of Us (e- and audio-books also available)!
It's the perfect time to get hold of a copy of Sum of Us (e- and audio-books also available)!
September 26, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Want to know how digital ID works, what it would involve, why we don't have it already, and why the last time we tried to have an identity register it went tits up very fast?
It's the perfect time to get hold of a copy of Sum of Us (e- and audio-books also available)!
It's the perfect time to get hold of a copy of Sum of Us (e- and audio-books also available)!
A recent YouGov/ Big Brother Watch poll found that when people are primed with a lengthy description of what digital ID might actually involve, support appears to be lower.
[from August 2025]
[from August 2025]
September 25, 2025 at 3:01 PM
A recent YouGov/ Big Brother Watch poll found that when people are primed with a lengthy description of what digital ID might actually involve, support appears to be lower.
[from August 2025]
[from August 2025]
Worth noting that public opinion on identity cards is pretty mixed. Not clear yet exactly what will be proposed though and we can be quite sure it won't be a physical card.
Labour's experience with ID cards in the 2000s is definitely also worth remembering. They had strong support at first...
Labour's experience with ID cards in the 2000s is definitely also worth remembering. They had strong support at first...
September 25, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Worth noting that public opinion on identity cards is pretty mixed. Not clear yet exactly what will be proposed though and we can be quite sure it won't be a physical card.
Labour's experience with ID cards in the 2000s is definitely also worth remembering. They had strong support at first...
Labour's experience with ID cards in the 2000s is definitely also worth remembering. They had strong support at first...
There's a persistent impression about the migration debate in the UK that one side - that of migration sceptics - cares a lot more.
I've got a nagging feeling that's not only untrue but having a disastrous effect.
⬇️ My latest post on Substack ⬇️
georginasturge.substack.com/p/a-monopoly...
I've got a nagging feeling that's not only untrue but having a disastrous effect.
⬇️ My latest post on Substack ⬇️
georginasturge.substack.com/p/a-monopoly...
September 24, 2025 at 1:47 PM
There's a persistent impression about the migration debate in the UK that one side - that of migration sceptics - cares a lot more.
I've got a nagging feeling that's not only untrue but having a disastrous effect.
⬇️ My latest post on Substack ⬇️
georginasturge.substack.com/p/a-monopoly...
I've got a nagging feeling that's not only untrue but having a disastrous effect.
⬇️ My latest post on Substack ⬇️
georginasturge.substack.com/p/a-monopoly...
Excited to share my latest Substack post - something a bit different from me that goes well beyond my usual data remit.
Could I be onto something? Let me know what you think ⬇️
georginasturge.substack.com/p/a-monopoly...
Could I be onto something? Let me know what you think ⬇️
georginasturge.substack.com/p/a-monopoly...
September 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Excited to share my latest Substack post - something a bit different from me that goes well beyond my usual data remit.
Could I be onto something? Let me know what you think ⬇️
georginasturge.substack.com/p/a-monopoly...
Could I be onto something? Let me know what you think ⬇️
georginasturge.substack.com/p/a-monopoly...
Revising statistics? The real crime is not to do it.
In my latest post I explore a better way of thinking about revisions in statistics that doesn't involve accusations of sabotage and phoniness.
georginasturge.substack.com/p/revising-s...
In my latest post I explore a better way of thinking about revisions in statistics that doesn't involve accusations of sabotage and phoniness.
georginasturge.substack.com/p/revising-s...
August 14, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Revising statistics? The real crime is not to do it.
In my latest post I explore a better way of thinking about revisions in statistics that doesn't involve accusations of sabotage and phoniness.
georginasturge.substack.com/p/revising-s...
In my latest post I explore a better way of thinking about revisions in statistics that doesn't involve accusations of sabotage and phoniness.
georginasturge.substack.com/p/revising-s...
Did you know this was a thing?
A sustained majority of people now back electoral reform, and the rising trend doesn't show any sign of stopping.
This isn't just a by-product of more people now supporting challenger parties, e.g. Reform. It's supported by a majority of voters across all parties.
A sustained majority of people now back electoral reform, and the rising trend doesn't show any sign of stopping.
This isn't just a by-product of more people now supporting challenger parties, e.g. Reform. It's supported by a majority of voters across all parties.
August 5, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Did you know this was a thing?
A sustained majority of people now back electoral reform, and the rising trend doesn't show any sign of stopping.
This isn't just a by-product of more people now supporting challenger parties, e.g. Reform. It's supported by a majority of voters across all parties.
A sustained majority of people now back electoral reform, and the rising trend doesn't show any sign of stopping.
This isn't just a by-product of more people now supporting challenger parties, e.g. Reform. It's supported by a majority of voters across all parties.
The UK's shortage of driving instructors is weirdly acute.
Not something that can be fixed by immigration given the requirement to take a UK-based test.
Not something that can be fixed by immigration given the requirement to take a UK-based test.
August 1, 2025 at 10:21 AM
The UK's shortage of driving instructors is weirdly acute.
Not something that can be fixed by immigration given the requirement to take a UK-based test.
Not something that can be fixed by immigration given the requirement to take a UK-based test.
The population increase in England and Wales since 2021 is pretty wild when taken in longer-term context.
The years 2022-24 saw the largest population annual increases, by some way, outside of the two world wars. Natural change was close to zero, so the increase was all from migration.
The years 2022-24 saw the largest population annual increases, by some way, outside of the two world wars. Natural change was close to zero, so the increase was all from migration.
July 30, 2025 at 10:24 AM
The population increase in England and Wales since 2021 is pretty wild when taken in longer-term context.
The years 2022-24 saw the largest population annual increases, by some way, outside of the two world wars. Natural change was close to zero, so the increase was all from migration.
The years 2022-24 saw the largest population annual increases, by some way, outside of the two world wars. Natural change was close to zero, so the increase was all from migration.
Why do we rely on economic forecasts which are always wrong?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/why-do-we-...
georginasturge.substack.com/p/why-do-we-...
July 16, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Why do we rely on economic forecasts which are always wrong?
georginasturge.substack.com/p/why-do-we-...
georginasturge.substack.com/p/why-do-we-...
New UC by immigration statistics released yesterday.
Before anyone thinks about comparing these numbers with their respective populations, just be aware that we do not know the current pop size of any of these groups - no, not even British.
But I'm sure such comparisons are already underway.
Before anyone thinks about comparing these numbers with their respective populations, just be aware that we do not know the current pop size of any of these groups - no, not even British.
But I'm sure such comparisons are already underway.
July 16, 2025 at 8:25 AM
New UC by immigration statistics released yesterday.
Before anyone thinks about comparing these numbers with their respective populations, just be aware that we do not know the current pop size of any of these groups - no, not even British.
But I'm sure such comparisons are already underway.
Before anyone thinks about comparing these numbers with their respective populations, just be aware that we do not know the current pop size of any of these groups - no, not even British.
But I'm sure such comparisons are already underway.
Had a great time in Lille this weekend watching the start of the Tour de France.
Successfully stalked the Ineos bus. Also got a nice close up view of golden boy Remco and Pogi 😍
Successfully stalked the Ineos bus. Also got a nice close up view of golden boy Remco and Pogi 😍
July 8, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Had a great time in Lille this weekend watching the start of the Tour de France.
Successfully stalked the Ineos bus. Also got a nice close up view of golden boy Remco and Pogi 😍
Successfully stalked the Ineos bus. Also got a nice close up view of golden boy Remco and Pogi 😍
Have just clocked that gov.uk has changed its branding from black and white to blue and turquoise.
Don't want to read too much into the significance of these colour choices... but 🤔
Don't want to read too much into the significance of these colour choices... but 🤔
June 26, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Have just clocked that gov.uk has changed its branding from black and white to blue and turquoise.
Don't want to read too much into the significance of these colour choices... but 🤔
Don't want to read too much into the significance of these colour choices... but 🤔
How much will the ethnic profile of the UK change from migration and natural change over the next one hundred years? Will 'White British' become a minority?
I've tried to have a look at the data on this - and I didn't find what I thought I would.
georginasturge.substack.com/p/will-white...
I've tried to have a look at the data on this - and I didn't find what I thought I would.
georginasturge.substack.com/p/will-white...
June 25, 2025 at 11:43 AM
How much will the ethnic profile of the UK change from migration and natural change over the next one hundred years? Will 'White British' become a minority?
I've tried to have a look at the data on this - and I didn't find what I thought I would.
georginasturge.substack.com/p/will-white...
I've tried to have a look at the data on this - and I didn't find what I thought I would.
georginasturge.substack.com/p/will-white...
With some trepidation, in my latest piece for Substack I try to verify a claim doing the rounds that 'White British' will have become a minority ethnicity in the UK by 2063.
Enjoy...?
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Enjoy...?
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
June 25, 2025 at 7:55 AM
With some trepidation, in my latest piece for Substack I try to verify a claim doing the rounds that 'White British' will have become a minority ethnicity in the UK by 2063.
Enjoy...?
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Enjoy...?
open.substack.com/pub/georgina...
Looks remarkably similar to the number of people migrating to the UK for skilled and specialised work.
Part of the recent spike and sip is surely down to immigration. Looks like there has still been a policy effect of adding VAT to fees but there are definitely other factors at play.
Part of the recent spike and sip is surely down to immigration. Looks like there has still been a policy effect of adding VAT to fees but there are definitely other factors at play.
June 24, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Looks remarkably similar to the number of people migrating to the UK for skilled and specialised work.
Part of the recent spike and sip is surely down to immigration. Looks like there has still been a policy effect of adding VAT to fees but there are definitely other factors at play.
Part of the recent spike and sip is surely down to immigration. Looks like there has still been a policy effect of adding VAT to fees but there are definitely other factors at play.