George Magnus
@george17.bsky.social
China watcher, ex Chief Economist UBS, now at China Centre, Oxford and at SOAS, London. Rock&Indie music lover. Also golden retriever owner and fan.
A lot of things here for Bluesky-ers to think about… open.substack.com/pub/noahpini...
The Bluesky-ization of the American left
Progressives discovered a seemingly invincible weapon. One day it stopped working.
open.substack.com
September 13, 2025 at 11:14 AM
A lot of things here for Bluesky-ers to think about… open.substack.com/pub/noahpini...
My comments on Trump’s 50% EU and 25% Apple tariff moment youtu.be/UnHVr66OMoo
What consequences a new EU-Trump tariff war could have | DW News
YouTube video by DW News
youtu.be
May 25, 2025 at 6:40 AM
My comments on Trump’s 50% EU and 25% Apple tariff moment youtu.be/UnHVr66OMoo
The problem here is you’re not comparing like with like.
There must be other reasons why such a high % of people are claiming out of work benefits when we have more of less full employment. It’s an anomaly which requires explanation.
There must be other reasons why such a high % of people are claiming out of work benefits when we have more of less full employment. It’s an anomaly which requires explanation.
Fraser Nelson: "¼ of Birmingham, UK's 2nd city, now on out-of-work benefits"
This is a conclusion he drew from his own analysis
An IFS analysis shows much lower nationwide numbers
"In England and Wales ... 10.0% – now claim either incapacity or disability benefit"
cc: @george17.bsky.social
This is a conclusion he drew from his own analysis
An IFS analysis shows much lower nationwide numbers
"In England and Wales ... 10.0% – now claim either incapacity or disability benefit"
cc: @george17.bsky.social
May 22, 2025 at 8:09 AM
The problem here is you’re not comparing like with like.
There must be other reasons why such a high % of people are claiming out of work benefits when we have more of less full employment. It’s an anomaly which requires explanation.
There must be other reasons why such a high % of people are claiming out of work benefits when we have more of less full employment. It’s an anomaly which requires explanation.
Thanks to Deutsche Welle for an extended interview on the US China trade war -> embargo -> de-escalation for now and strategically , what it all means youtube.com/watch?v=-4PO...
Trade War: game over or next round? | DW News
YouTube video by DW News
youtube.com
May 15, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Thanks to Deutsche Welle for an extended interview on the US China trade war -> embargo -> de-escalation for now and strategically , what it all means youtube.com/watch?v=-4PO...
Trump says China trade tslks in Switz ‘total reset’. No stranger to hyperbole, him, but total reset is precisely what’s going on in world trade and much related to it, as I explain here: youtube.com/watch?v=7gEk...
The Global Trade Reset Was Inevitable | George Magnus
YouTube video by The Monetary Matters Network
youtube.com
May 11, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Trump says China trade tslks in Switz ‘total reset’. No stranger to hyperbole, him, but total reset is precisely what’s going on in world trade and much related to it, as I explain here: youtube.com/watch?v=7gEk...
Through the looking glass folks, abs ridiculous - Woman wins £30,000 compensation for being compared to Darth Vader
May 7, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Through the looking glass folks, abs ridiculous - Woman wins £30,000 compensation for being compared to Darth Vader
While the U.S. and China jostle, too many politicians and commentators have naively concluded the answer to trade more with the biggest mercantilist that only wants to export more to them. Dumb. Talk of cosying up to China is a dangerous fantasy
www.thetimes.com/article/018b...
www.thetimes.com/article/018b...
Talk of cosying up to China is a dangerous fantasy
China’s export orders hit their lowest level since 2022. A closer trade relationship is a perilous illusion
www.thetimes.com
May 5, 2025 at 6:03 AM
While the U.S. and China jostle, too many politicians and commentators have naively concluded the answer to trade more with the biggest mercantilist that only wants to export more to them. Dumb. Talk of cosying up to China is a dangerous fantasy
www.thetimes.com/article/018b...
www.thetimes.com/article/018b...
I think we are learning something rather different. That large structural surplus economies, by imposing -ve welfare consequences on own population, force deficits and welfare losses on other countries. Which is why so many are raising ‘trade defence measures’ against the same surplus country.
We are learning, once again, that attempting to force economic rebalancing on other countries requires both the deficit country’s willingness to impose negative welfare consequences on its own population *and* the surplus country’s willingness to mitigate the domestic welfare consequences.
April 27, 2025 at 8:53 PM
I think we are learning something rather different. That large structural surplus economies, by imposing -ve welfare consequences on own population, force deficits and welfare losses on other countries. Which is why so many are raising ‘trade defence measures’ against the same surplus country.
Bbg’s Natthew Brooker on the UK Treasury and finance sectir interesrs naivete and weak acumen in setting the Lab Govt’s china policy www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
UK's China Policy Is Based on Magical Thinking
Labour’s economic engagement policy is mired in misconceptions about the nature of the Communist system.
www.bloomberg.com
April 25, 2025 at 7:34 AM
Bbg’s Natthew Brooker on the UK Treasury and finance sectir interesrs naivete and weak acumen in setting the Lab Govt’s china policy www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
When you write an article like this, it helps to know something about the political economy of the country you’re writing about, and how it works and what doesn’t. AndrewMarr comes up short here 1/2 www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
Why China is winning
In the struggle with the US for dominance, which superpower’s patriotic determination is stronger?
www.newstatesman.com
April 25, 2025 at 6:56 AM
When you write an article like this, it helps to know something about the political economy of the country you’re writing about, and how it works and what doesn’t. AndrewMarr comes up short here 1/2 www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
Good piece. I think Hatzius is right. US$ depreciation is not the same as loss of reserve currency status. It’s a bear market, not a bare market.
The dollar has further to fall - strong oped here from Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius www.ft.com/content/976e...
April 24, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Good piece. I think Hatzius is right. US$ depreciation is not the same as loss of reserve currency status. It’s a bear market, not a bare market.
Can’t see Trump firing him, myself. Even if he did, Powell is just one vote on the FOMC, and while you’d have been laughed out for saying this when he was appointed, he’s a pretty imp dude in scheme of things now
👇👇Jay Powell is defiant in the face of Trump’s threats - oped by Gillian Tett who writes the Fed chair is determined to see out his term, and lawyers at the central bank think he has good grounds to do so
www.ft.com/content/e714...
www.ft.com/content/e714...
Jay Powell is defiant in the face of Trump’s threats
The Fed chair is determined to see out his term, and lawyers at the central bank think he has good grounds to do so
www.ft.com
April 22, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Can’t see Trump firing him, myself. Even if he did, Powell is just one vote on the FOMC, and while you’d have been laughed out for saying this when he was appointed, he’s a pretty imp dude in scheme of things now
Interview w/ ‘The Market’s Mark Ditti on the US China trade war, or more like, embargo. many topics but in a nutshell, cajoling one another into talks still seems likely, but nothing can thrn clock back or reset this fractured relationship. themarket.ch/interview/ge...
George Magnus: Nobody Can Win This Trade War
George Magnus, the former chief economist of UBS Investment Bank and author of the book «Red Flags», talks about the trade war between the US and China, the Trump administration’s approach and the que...
themarket.ch
April 18, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Interview w/ ‘The Market’s Mark Ditti on the US China trade war, or more like, embargo. many topics but in a nutshell, cajoling one another into talks still seems likely, but nothing can thrn clock back or reset this fractured relationship. themarket.ch/interview/ge...
Technically a serious and content heavy research paper. But there’s also a far simpler political explanation which is rooted in CCP historical narratives, the embrace of unprecedented industrial scale industrial policy after 2005, and Leninist thinking and ambition carried to new levels by Xi.
1. Now that China is cutting economic ties, new research on why China opted for technological self-reliance. The good stuff discussed below is down to my co-authors rather than me - but it _is_ good stuff. We have lots of NLP data that helps us map out China's debates about technological dependence.
Driven to Self-Reliance: Technological Interdependence and the Chinese Innovation Ecosystem
Abstract. States face a dilemma on how to balance gains from technological advancement with the risks of dependence. Technology is central to government ob
academic.oup.com
April 14, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Technically a serious and content heavy research paper. But there’s also a far simpler political explanation which is rooted in CCP historical narratives, the embrace of unprecedented industrial scale industrial policy after 2005, and Leninist thinking and ambition carried to new levels by Xi.
About time the governors there et al developed a spine. Let’s hope they stand firm against all intimidation
Harvard stands up
Letter to the Harvard community from President Garber
Letter to the Harvard community from President Garber
April 14, 2025 at 8:52 PM
About time the governors there et al developed a spine. Let’s hope they stand firm against all intimidation
Well….. I’m struggling to think of anything Ed Miliband has done or plotted that didn’t end up toxic or snafu’d….
April 14, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Well….. I’m struggling to think of anything Ed Miliband has done or plotted that didn’t end up toxic or snafu’d….
No question that politicians and markets (now just fear) were not braced for China's escalatory response. But this doesn't mean, despite awful optics now, that there wont be a deal at some point. Interesting q is who, by then, will hold the stronger cards 1/4
www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
China intends to crush the trade war
Beijing has retaliated against Donald Trump's tariffs — and the response was far stronger than expected.
www.newstatesman.com
April 7, 2025 at 1:17 PM
No question that politicians and markets (now just fear) were not braced for China's escalatory response. But this doesn't mean, despite awful optics now, that there wont be a deal at some point. Interesting q is who, by then, will hold the stronger cards 1/4
www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
Spokecwith @Deutsche Welle about Trump’s tariffs and China’s escalatory riposte youtu.be/bC3jZWm4pEI?...
Trump tariffs: China hits back with 34% tariff on US goods | DW News
YouTube video by DW News
youtu.be
April 5, 2025 at 7:00 AM
Spokecwith @Deutsche Welle about Trump’s tariffs and China’s escalatory riposte youtu.be/bC3jZWm4pEI?...
Time to move on from ‘asinine and inept’ which it is, and try to get to grips with implications. Check out the Asian tariff changes eg vs Latam etc. Trump is setting out to break up the China/Asia supply chains laboriously created in the last 20 odd years 1/4
April 4, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Time to move on from ‘asinine and inept’ which it is, and try to get to grips with implications. Check out the Asian tariff changes eg vs Latam etc. Trump is setting out to break up the China/Asia supply chains laboriously created in the last 20 odd years 1/4
In which I set out the reasons that 65% tariffs would hurt China, even though the exports affected are not that big as % GDP, and what China might do about it, including try for a deal with Trump. How Trump’s tariffs will hurt China www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-...
How Trump’s tariffs will hurt China
China has been hit hard by President Trump’s tariff list, which he unveiled yesterday in the White House rose garden. As part of his ‘Liberation Day’, Trump imposed new 34 per cent tariffs on China. T...
www.spectator.co.uk
April 3, 2025 at 6:03 PM
In which I set out the reasons that 65% tariffs would hurt China, even though the exports affected are not that big as % GDP, and what China might do about it, including try for a deal with Trump. How Trump’s tariffs will hurt China www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-...
This, as usual, is a well written but it’s not without weaknesses. Here are 3. 1/4
And Martin Wolf has been in China, where they recognise Trump's Cultural Revolution as an opportunity for others as the US reputation is heavily damaged. www.ft.com/content/80ab...
China senses an opportunity in Trump’s cultural revolution
Policymakers in Beijing believe they will benefit from the destruction of America’s global credibility
www.ft.com
April 2, 2025 at 8:44 AM
This, as usual, is a well written but it’s not without weaknesses. Here are 3. 1/4
Reposted by George Magnus
🇨🇳 ‘The government is certainly not planning to change its mercantilist economic model away from the emphasis on industrial policies and exports, despite new measures to appear more consumer-focused,’ writes @george17.bsky.social, in a new #Investigator
#ObservingChina
#ObservingChina
China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis
How achievable are Beijing’s economic goals for 2025?
www.observingchina.org.uk
March 25, 2025 at 11:16 AM
🇨🇳 ‘The government is certainly not planning to change its mercantilist economic model away from the emphasis on industrial policies and exports, despite new measures to appear more consumer-focused,’ writes @george17.bsky.social, in a new #Investigator
#ObservingChina
#ObservingChina
In this piece, I take an in-depth look at the CCP's economic deliberations at the NPC earlier this month. Plenty of rhetoric about the need to boost consumption. A few takeaways here 1/3 China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis open.substack.com/pub/chinaobs...
China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis
How achievable are Beijing’s economic goals for 2025?
open.substack.com
March 25, 2025 at 12:23 PM
In this piece, I take an in-depth look at the CCP's economic deliberations at the NPC earlier this month. Plenty of rhetoric about the need to boost consumption. A few takeaways here 1/3 China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis open.substack.com/pub/chinaobs...
Globalisation as we knew it may be over says HSBC, which doesn’t blink twice in cozying up to Beijing which is a prime instigator of the breakdown in globalisation as we knew it
‘Globalisation as we knew it’ may be over, says HSBC chair Mark Tucker
https://www.ft.com/content/ce7d678a-2499-4867-b152-2c3470c44c84
https://www.ft.com/content/ce7d678a-2499-4867-b152-2c3470c44c84
‘Globalisation as we knew it’ may be over, says HSBC chair Mark Tucker
UK-based bank is dominant in financing trade flows around the world
www.ft.com
March 25, 2025 at 7:30 AM
Globalisation as we knew it may be over says HSBC, which doesn’t blink twice in cozying up to Beijing which is a prime instigator of the breakdown in globalisation as we knew it
So true. Lots of students have been not taken care of well by the university. Appalling governance standards
Reading this appalling story, I don't see how anyone can in good conscience send their kids to Columbia -- not even as a political statement, but from a basic "will they take care of my kid?" standpoint...
A 21-year-old Columbia University student who has lived in the United States since she was a child sued President Trump and other high-ranking administration officials on Monday after immigration officials tried to arrest and deport her.
Yunseo Chung participated in a Barnard sit-in this month.
Yunseo Chung participated in a Barnard sit-in this month.
March 25, 2025 at 7:25 AM
So true. Lots of students have been not taken care of well by the university. Appalling governance standards