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Librarian Capital

@librariancapital.bsky.social

1.7K followers 290 following 6K posts

Investing/stocks. Ex. HF seeking ideas, contacts & capital. I may be long/short names mentioned. @LibrarianCap on Twitter. Also Substack https://librariancapital.substack.com/

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Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · Nov 16

We publish research on interesting stocks on Substack
Growing archive of reports on dozens of companies

"Institutional-grade research at retail prices"
Includes 15-stock model portfolio updated monthly

Follow the link below, or see address on screenshot
librariancapital.substack.com

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 1h

Whether you prefer Rightmove or Zoetis depends partly on which company you think can upsell more

Populations of UK estate agents and US pets/livestock both seem to have stagnated in recent years

Both face challengers, but $ELAN likely more risky to ZTS than $CGSP is to RMV

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 2h

Croda $CRDA is at ~19x 2024 Adj. EPS
£3.7bn market cap on ~£200m of 2024 Adjusted NI

Good arguments that 2024 NI was trough

Guidance implies 2025 NI to be £193-216m
Sales +5% and EBIT +8% in £ in 25H1 (2-3 ppt FX hit)

Earnings peaked at £379m in 2022 (over-earning)

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 2h

On 2024 EPS, Spirax is "cheaper" than Zoetis, which in turn is "cheaper" than Rightmove

$SPX 23.2x < $ZTS 23.7x < $RMV 25.5x

But, on 2024 FCF Yield, RMV is "cheapest"

RMV 3.8% > SPX 3.6% > ZTS 3.5%

And, on 2025E EPS, they all have P/E at ~23x

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Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 2h

Charter $CHTR down 31% since we last published an article on it in Dec-23 (we gave up there too)

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 2h

Patrick Drahi rejecting an €17bn bid for Altice France reminds me to check on Altice USA $ATUS

Remember all those theories about ATUS problems being a conspiracy for Drahi to LBO it on the cheap?

ATUS shares are down nearly 90% in the 4 years since (we gave up in Nov-21)

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Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 3h

haikou.customs.gov.cn/haikou_custo...

haikou.customs.gov.cn

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 3h

No China Hainan duty-free sales data for Sep yet*, let alone Golden Week (Oct 1-15)

Aug data shows:
Month sales -4.2% y/y
YTD sales -8.5% y/y

$EL $RCO

* These seem to be released on 18th each month

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 4h

She seems very likeable now

"Hemphill refused the presidential pardon, insisting she was guilty and had been brainwashed into taking part in the insurrection ... Today, she compares her time in Maga to that of a cult"

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 4h

"EU fines Gucci, Chloé and Loewe €157m for price fixing"

They "strived to have their retailers apply the same prices and sales conditions they applied in their own direct sales channels"

"In 2023, Rolex was fined €91.6mn ... for prohibiting 3rd-party retailers from selling its watches online"

$MC

EU fines Gucci, Chloé and Loewe €157mn for price fixing

Brussels penalises luxury brands for controlling resale prices at independent retailers

www.ft.com

Reposted by Librarian Capital

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 6h

Wow. Trump's masked federal agents tear-gassed a crowd in Chicago and ended up gassing a bunch of local Chicago cops who were there to *deescalate tensions.* One local cop was captured on film washing out his eyes with a hose:

chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/...

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Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 8h

Another nail against Diageo $DGE thesis

"Are weight loss drugs killing off the business lunch?" (FT)

"Restaurateurs are noticing changes ... that they believe are at least partly fuelled by the increased use of weight loss drugs"

But "plenty ... say they have seen no impact"

Tony Tassell @tonytassell.bsky.social · 10h

Are weight loss drugs killing off the business lunch? @danielthomasldn.bsky.social and @emmavj.bsky.social rpt. www.ft.com/content/d1c5...

Are weight loss drugs killing off the business lunch?

Appetite suppressing medicines may be an unsavoury problem for restaurateurs as well as diners

www.ft.com

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 8h

Another example in the book, that people on Greenland also destroyed their ecosystem by cutting down too many trees, in this case to build churches, seems to remain consensus (they made other mistakes too)

The Vanishing

In “Collapse,” Jared Diamond shows how societies destroy themselves.

www.newyorker.com

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 8h

It's always worth checking things you read

Jared Diamond's 2004 book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" suggests people on Easter Island destroyed their ecosystem when they cut down too many trees to build those statues

Subsequent studies seem to disprove this

Easter Island's Ancient Population Never Faced Ecological Collapse, Suggests Another Study

New DNA analysis adds to growing research indicating the famous Pacific island did not collapse from overuse of resources before the arrival of Europeans

www.smithsonianmag.com

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Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 8h

Pets at Home $PETS FY25 results:

"Our Vets business delivered another year of double digit growth"

"Driving differentiated practice economics translating to significant value creation for our partners"

Average practices has 27% EBITDA Margin

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 8h

Reuters: "Trump proposes barring Chinese airlines from flying over Russia on US routes"

IATA: "North American airlines experienced the slowest growth (in international passenger traffic) among all regions (in August), with international traffic up just 1.8% YoY"

Trump is making the US unattractive

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 9h

"UK vets face price caps after competition review"

"Veterinary businesses are charging 2x ... the price of online pharmacies ... average prices rose 63% between 2016 and 2023"

"Six vet chains ... have bought 1,500 of the UK’s ~5,000 practices over the past decade"

$PETS $ZTS

UK vets face price caps after competition review

Watchdog finds regulatory system is ‘not fit for purpose’

www.ft.com

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Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 18h

You may think stories like "‘I love Hitler’: Leaked messages expose Young Republicans’ racist chat" are obvious

But they are not to older people who watch TV for news

Spread the word. Help them understand

‘I love Hitler’: Leaked messages expose Young Republicans’ racist chat

Thousands of private messages reveal young GOP leaders joking about gas chambers, slavery and rape.

www.politico.com

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 18h

According to a June 2025 Reuters Institute report:

48% of US people aged 55+ use TV as their main news source

50% of US people use social media for news
48% use online news sites or apps (overlap unclear)
But what about the other half?

reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news...

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Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 18h

Bank of America $BAC shares have risen another ~20% since it was disclosed a year ago that Warren Buffett has cut Berkshire Hathaway's stake to below 10%

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 18h

$JPM Jamie Dimon comment on Tricolor & First Brands

"My antenna goes up when things like that happen ... when you see one cockroach, there are probably more. Everyone should be forewarned on this one.

"There clearly was, in my opinion, fraud involved in a bunch of these things"

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 18h

$JPM CFO saying what a lot of bears are thinking:

"The current facts on the consumer side are that the consumer is resilient, spending is strong, and delinquency rates are actually coming in below expectations. Those are facts that we really can't escape"

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Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 18h

$JPM 25Q3: resilient consumers & SMBs

"Consumers & small businesses remain resilient based on our data. While we are closely watching the potentially softening labor market, our credit metrics, including early stage delinquencies, remain stable & slightly better than expected"

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Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 18h

$JPM mgmt. throwing shade at $BAC?

CFO: "Jamie (Dimon, CEO) always says, like, putting liquid-par assets on the balance sheet and adding leverage is not a thing that actually generates value, no matter what the supposed return of that instrument is in the spreadsheet"

(25Q3 call)

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 19h

Further context: "JPMorgan backs ‘America First’ push with up to $10bn investment" (FT)

JPMorgan backs ‘America First’ push with up to $10bn investment

Chief executive Jamie Dimon says US too dependent on ‘unreliable’ sources of materials ‘essential’ to national security

www.ft.com

Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 19h

Context

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