Well….. I’m struggling to think of anything Ed Miliband has done or plotted that didn’t end up toxic or snafu’d….

Time to move on from ‘asinine and inept’ which it is, and try to get to grips with implications. Check out the Asian tariff changes eg vs Latam etc. Trump is setting out to break up the China/Asia supply chains laboriously created in the last 20 odd years 1/4

Nominal gdp reported to have risen 4.2% in ‘24, and do this implicitly means the deflator fell (for the 3rd year) by 0.8%. This, the broadest measure of prices, tells us that China is still in a deflation, regularly suggested by cpi and ppi data. 2/3

China’s real gdp reported at 5% in ‘24, hitting the target (of course) and 5.4% in Q4. It’s a fiction though, esp as credit gr was weak, and while activity probably rose at end yr, it was thanks to fiscal easing and local govt spending catchup. Now look at the nominal pic 1/3

Picture of a problem: Yields are slumping even post recent Econ Work Conf. Govt/PBC is signalling easy money policies, but doesn't like it w/banks/firms trading on the signal. Monet pol is in any case impotent. Yields are telling govt it has deflation/demand problem. Not listening so far.

This is an extraordinary muddle of disconsonant ideas. Short thread on why, and also why it casts MAGA as rather hollow. 1/6

A holiday essay on the China paradox: $19 trn economy, leader in importnat tech, 1.3 global manufacturing, household names, and yet macro-wise under the cosh. A latter day Japan. Get into the long grass on this with me here. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/china/...

US FDI is exiting China in a remarkable turnaround from the past, according to this paper. Its a forensic dive into the data sources that suggests that Corporate America's love in with China is changing, not just by anecdote and survey, but in terms of flows. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

In this piece, I wanted to contextualise (ex disaster word!) why Xi too needs to stabilise China’s most important relationship. For now at least. Important at a poor time for the economy but ultimately won’t compensate for made-in-China policy dysfunction. www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

Here Is an all things China interview I did this week with Mauldin Economics. youtu.be/r7sHW_xQe6o?...

This Is more on ‘is China investable’? Bottom
Line: when politics are in command, and shareholder value is overshadowed by the party’s control and goal, what are you actually buying? And why? www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

Give Robert Shrimsley a prize for this piece touching every nerve in most of our bodies. A plague on both the left and right, and, I’d argue, esp the left at the moment. on.ft.com/45YElgu

Not sure how many will get off on this, but ICYDK, China’s local govts are in a lot of debt trouble. And todays conclusion of the Central Fin Commission meeting highlighted that something has to be done. This piece tells you why it’s crucial it be addressed. www.eastisread.com/p/xu-gao-chi...

LKQ who died this weekend will be mourned in China for 3 different reasons one of which may be significant. First he was a leader and educated man. 2nd, it’s customary and there’ve been moments of gr8 change. And 3rd..Li Keqiang, China’s former premier, dies suddenly at 68 on.ft.com/3ShPTIw