Duncan Weldon
@duncanweldon.bsky.social
Economics writer. Author.
Expect history, economics, finance and other stuff.
Wrote Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through.
Blood and Treasure, on the economics of war, out now.
Expect history, economics, finance and other stuff.
Wrote Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through.
Blood and Treasure, on the economics of war, out now.
Pinned
Duncan Weldon
@duncanweldon.bsky.social
· Aug 25
Time for a new pinned post. Out now in the UK, coming January 6th in the US.
November 19, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Am I doing two events back to back today? One online and then one in person? Yes I am.
Is this because I got confused when managing my diary? It might be.
Is this because I got confused when managing my diary? It might be.
November 19, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Am I doing two events back to back today? One online and then one in person? Yes I am.
Is this because I got confused when managing my diary? It might be.
Is this because I got confused when managing my diary? It might be.
If you happen to be around Warwick this afternoon, this should be good.
warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econ...
warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econ...
Economics Policy Talks 2025: Global Trade Realignment: Winners and Losers in the New Geoeconomics
The Department of Economics, Warwick Women in Economics, Warwick Economic Summit, and the Warwick Economics Society are pleased to present the third edition of our annual Economics Policy Talks.
warwick.ac.uk
November 19, 2025 at 9:39 AM
If you happen to be around Warwick this afternoon, this should be good.
warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econ...
warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econ...
Lovely driving conditions to go to Warwick and back today. Ideal. Bit of sleet, lot of rain, good chance of ice. Couldn’t ask for more.
November 19, 2025 at 8:14 AM
Lovely driving conditions to go to Warwick and back today. Ideal. Bit of sleet, lot of rain, good chance of ice. Couldn’t ask for more.
Because of the Paddy Power advert I have found myself listening to quite a bit of the Bloodhound Gang for the first time in ages.
And I can remember a time when this (with bleeps) used to get a lot of radio and music channel airtime in the daytime.
And I can remember a time when this (with bleeps) used to get a lot of radio and music channel airtime in the daytime.
November 18, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Because of the Paddy Power advert I have found myself listening to quite a bit of the Bloodhound Gang for the first time in ages.
And I can remember a time when this (with bleeps) used to get a lot of radio and music channel airtime in the daytime.
And I can remember a time when this (with bleeps) used to get a lot of radio and music channel airtime in the daytime.
More KPOPPED with the kids.
Well done to Boy George for singing in Korean. Fair play.
Well done to Boy George for singing in Korean. Fair play.
November 18, 2025 at 5:49 PM
More KPOPPED with the kids.
Well done to Boy George for singing in Korean. Fair play.
Well done to Boy George for singing in Korean. Fair play.
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
Just pasting in a higher frequency chart here. Because I suspect a lot of people will say March 2000, but there was a 30%-ish rally between May and July. The final capitulation was in September/October, which coincided with weakness in the economic data.
November 18, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Just pasting in a higher frequency chart here. Because I suspect a lot of people will say March 2000, but there was a 30%-ish rally between May and July. The final capitulation was in September/October, which coincided with weakness in the economic data.
A question, when did people realise that the dot com bubble had actually peaked?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
November 18, 2025 at 10:58 AM
A question, when did people realise that the dot com bubble had actually peaked?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
Hhhmm.
I mean, maybe. But fair to say ‘especially ones that have invested very heavily in AI’.
I mean, maybe. But fair to say ‘especially ones that have invested very heavily in AI’.
November 18, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Hhhmm.
I mean, maybe. But fair to say ‘especially ones that have invested very heavily in AI’.
I mean, maybe. But fair to say ‘especially ones that have invested very heavily in AI’.
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
I don’t want to seem out of touch but I don’t actually understand the economy anymore.
November 18, 2025 at 3:23 AM
I don’t want to seem out of touch but I don’t actually understand the economy anymore.
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
I’ve written a piece on the curious lack of media and political interest in the issues faced by our national @britishlibrary.bsky.social. This is strange given we live in a world where ideas, knowledge and research are a long-term source of innovation and insight
www.cityam.com/the-british-...
www.cityam.com/the-british-...
The British library is in crisis: why does nobody care?
The widespread indifference to the British Library's crippling cyberattack demonstrates a perilous failure to value the knowledge infrastructure vital for national prosperity
www.cityam.com
November 18, 2025 at 6:27 AM
I’ve written a piece on the curious lack of media and political interest in the issues faced by our national @britishlibrary.bsky.social. This is strange given we live in a world where ideas, knowledge and research are a long-term source of innovation and insight
www.cityam.com/the-british-...
www.cityam.com/the-british-...
Due to ‘circumstances’* it is not acceptable for me to simply keep Australian hours during the Ashes. Apparently.
*Work, family, children, whatever
*Work, family, children, whatever
November 18, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Due to ‘circumstances’* it is not acceptable for me to simply keep Australian hours during the Ashes. Apparently.
*Work, family, children, whatever
*Work, family, children, whatever
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
Good point on the idea that Reeves will have been helped by fall in gilt yields that took place in OBR measurement window 👇
Actually similar happened in Budget 2024 - but OBR knew that gave an inappropriately cushy view so pushed against it.
It may not be such a gift! 🎁
Actually similar happened in Budget 2024 - but OBR knew that gave an inappropriately cushy view so pushed against it.
It may not be such a gift! 🎁
More than that, the OBR have just adjusted their forecast for gilt rates before if they think the market hasn't priced in what is in the budget. Most recently in October last year!
November 17, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Good point on the idea that Reeves will have been helped by fall in gilt yields that took place in OBR measurement window 👇
Actually similar happened in Budget 2024 - but OBR knew that gave an inappropriately cushy view so pushed against it.
It may not be such a gift! 🎁
Actually similar happened in Budget 2024 - but OBR knew that gave an inappropriately cushy view so pushed against it.
It may not be such a gift! 🎁
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
Intrigued that the Labour Party has a Denmark policy - seize jewellery and assets from asylum seekers - and also an anti-Denmark policy - don’t tax middle earners enough to support welfare state.
November 17, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Intrigued that the Labour Party has a Denmark policy - seize jewellery and assets from asylum seekers - and also an anti-Denmark policy - don’t tax middle earners enough to support welfare state.
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
The Prime Minister said in September that we are at a fork in the road. These asylum proposals suggest we have taken the wrong turning.
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Asylum system in UK ‘out of control’ and dividing country, home secretary says
Shabana Mahmood to unveil new proposals modelled on Denmark’s controversial system
www.theguardian.com
November 16, 2025 at 5:45 PM
The Prime Minister said in September that we are at a fork in the road. These asylum proposals suggest we have taken the wrong turning.
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Star Wars Rebels is one of the best bits of the wider universe.
Better than most of the recent series.
Better than most of the recent series.
November 16, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Star Wars Rebels is one of the best bits of the wider universe.
Better than most of the recent series.
Better than most of the recent series.
I’m looking forward to the Ken Burns American Revolution doc.
I enjoy Ken Burns documentaries.
I enjoy Ken Burns documentaries.
November 16, 2025 at 11:39 AM
I’m looking forward to the Ken Burns American Revolution doc.
I enjoy Ken Burns documentaries.
I enjoy Ken Burns documentaries.
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
So many adverts for smart tech are just profoundly depressing.
November 16, 2025 at 11:17 AM
So many adverts for smart tech are just profoundly depressing.
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
Chief Economic Advisor, HM Treasury - a fantastic and extremely challenging job, following in the footsteps of Keynes..
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...
Quick Check Needed
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk
November 15, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Chief Economic Advisor, HM Treasury - a fantastic and extremely challenging job, following in the footsteps of Keynes..
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...
Would I think to bulk buy discounted steak from a drop shipping company via Facebook?
No, I don’t think I would.
No, I don’t think I would.
November 15, 2025 at 9:41 AM
Would I think to bulk buy discounted steak from a drop shipping company via Facebook?
No, I don’t think I would.
No, I don’t think I would.
Bought a ‘Japanese-style’ shirt with no collar.
My mother: “did you buy it from a shop where restaurants buy uniforms for waiters? Are you sure?”
My mother: “did you buy it from a shop where restaurants buy uniforms for waiters? Are you sure?”
November 15, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Bought a ‘Japanese-style’ shirt with no collar.
My mother: “did you buy it from a shop where restaurants buy uniforms for waiters? Are you sure?”
My mother: “did you buy it from a shop where restaurants buy uniforms for waiters? Are you sure?”
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
🚨 Private credit probably isn’t big enough to threaten the banking syst. But insurance? That’s where I’d focus. Opinion column. on.ft.com/3LCuVDb
If private credit breaks, insurers will fall under the microscope
Rising holdings of the asset class could lead to problems when the next downturn comes
on.ft.com
November 15, 2025 at 9:03 AM
🚨 Private credit probably isn’t big enough to threaten the banking syst. But insurance? That’s where I’d focus. Opinion column. on.ft.com/3LCuVDb