Ben Paxton
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drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Ben Paxton
@drbenpaxton.bsky.social
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Senior Researcher at the @instituteforgov.bsky.social. Views my own.
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Reposted by Ben Paxton
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
This morning we’ll be sharing some further analysis of the chancellor's big budget decisions.

In the meantime, check out the summary post on our autumn budget live blog, which highlights some of yesterday's key takeaways www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves announces tax and spend measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 27, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
njdavies.bsky.social
Pleased to see the govt commitment to using procurement to drive innovation. Procurement accounts for roughly 1 in 3 pounds spent by govt but it's utterly unstrategic about how it uses this

@drbenpaxton.bsky.social and I previously identified the barriers that the task-and-finish needs to remove
The government will leverage its procurement budgets to drive innovation. Each department will appoint a senior Procurement Innovation Champion, responsible for defining and delivering its innovation priorities through procurement. To accelerate access for strategically important innovative firms, the government will launch an Innovation Marketplace and establish a task-and-finish group to remove internal barriers to innovative procurement. Demonstrating a new approach, the government has launched an advance market commitment (AMC) to spur investment in clean concrete technologies, backed by Scottish Water, Ramboll, Derwent London, Atkins Realis UK, and Heathrow. Subject to due diligence, the government will launch another AMC, worth up to £100 million, for novel AI inference chips. Screenshot from IFG report: However, there are several barriers to effectively using public procurement to support the government’s missions and new ‘mission-led’ ways of working, including: • insufficient clarity about the government’s missions, which limits the public sector’s market shaping ability • pervasive aversion to risk and uncertainty • a lack of forward planning, which means there is often not enough time to explore how the market could provide new solutions • commercial professionals being brought into the policy process too late • procurements starting with over-specified solutions rather than outcomes • innovation often being initially available at a small scale • low quality of procurement data • insufficient senior commercial capacity and contract management capability • limited cross-government working between commercial professionals
November 27, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
njdavies.bsky.social
Proposed changes to spending controls are incredibly positive. As @instituteforgovernment.org.uk has previously noted, the cumulative complexity of controls muddies accountability, makes govt a worse customer, and wastes time and money. We asked govt to review and that's exactly what they've done
More governance can muddy accountability and reduce competition New policies and controls are typically introduced with good intentions – it is right that procurement decisions are properly scrutinised and reflect the changing priorities of the government. However, old policies and controls are often not scrapped when new ones are introduced, leading to layer upon layer of red tape – or, as one roundtable attendee put it, “terms and conditions on top of terms and conditions”. Governance alone, however, does not equal accountability. The cumulative complexity of controls and guidance can make lines of responsibility harder to trace, muddying the waters of accountability, as it can become less, not more, clear who is ultimately responsible for a decision (for example, the departmental commercial team leading a procurement or the central teams that have signed it off and set the guidance it complies with). Suppliers experience the proliferation of policies and controls through additional requirements in contracts. This can risk making the public sector a less attractive customer, putting off providers considering entering public sector markets and reducing market competition. Additional requirements at both tendering and contract management stages tend to impact SMEs, including charities and social enterprises, the greatest, since they usually have less capacity to meet them.
November 26, 2025 at 2:52 PM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Weeks of speculation, and lots of budget measures - but do they add up to a coherent fiscal strategy? Tune in to our webinar in 10 minutes to get the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk view
instituteforgovernment.org.uk Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 20h
Sign up for our webinar at 4pm, where a panel of IfG experts will be bringing you analysis of what we've learnt on the government's fiscal rules, changes to the productivity forecasts, the two-child benefit limit, council tax and more.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/autumn...
November 26, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
"Reeves steered clear of major adult benefits reforms"

@drbenpaxton.bsky.social shares his thoughts on today's budget and what it means for welfare – and why big changes to the system won't land unless you've laid the groundwork www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
“Reeves steered clear of major reforms to adult benefits, having learnt from the summer’s U-turns that big changes won’t land unless you’ve laid the groundwork beforehand. The reviews underway of disability benefits and youth inactivity should better set her up for more considered future reforms.” A quote from Ben Paxton, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government
November 26, 2025 at 2:42 PM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Not surprising that Reeves is expected to once again freeze fuel duty given her focus on the cost of living.

But if they keep doing this, revenue in 2029/30 will be £4.8bn lower than the numbers pencilled in. The cumulative cost of these freezes (+ 5p cut) since 2010/11 has been ~£100bn (!).
November 26, 2025 at 11:58 AM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
We've now had several formal pre-budget announcements (following weeks of speculation, which Treasury 'officially' declines to comment on). Our autumn budget live blog has a list of them (+ our piece making the case for a tourist tax back in July)
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
gemmatetlow.bsky.social
In a new departure, we @instituteforgovernment.org.uk are going to be live blogging the Budget all through tomorrow. The live blog is now live and we will be sharing our pre-Budget thoughts there, followed by responses once we hear the CX's speech www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 25, 2025 at 3:36 PM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Great to see public sector pensions being discussed. But I think the key issue is are they actually good value for money for recruiting + retaining the public sector workforce we want? Or might giving people flexibility to switch some pension for pay be better value?
www.thetimes.com/article/77af...
We need to put a stop to unfair public sector pensions — here’s how
The incredibly generous schemes are unfair and unaffordable and there is no justification for continuing to offer them
www.thetimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
shaina-sangha.bsky.social
As the covid inquiry gears up for Module 9 on economic policy, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social and I have a new @ukri.org-funded @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report out on Epi-econ modelling for pandemics. We set out why govt needs to invest now 1/🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government
The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 21, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
stuarthoddinott.bsky.social
A chart that surprised me: NHS staff absences for mental health reasons are at record highs, above pandemic levels

Absences for that reason have grown far faster than the combination of other reasons since 2016

Staff were absent for 1.4% of all working days for mental health reasons in YE May 2025
November 20, 2025 at 9:34 AM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
New comment from us on the six big things we at the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk will be looking out for at next week's budget
instituteforgovernment.org.uk Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 6d
With less than a week to go until Rachel Reeves delivers her 2025 budget, the IfG public finances team have set out six key questions they will be looking for the chancellor to answer - from fiscal and tax strategies to cost of living www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...
Rachel Reeves’s budget 2025: The IfG’s six things to look out for | Institute for Government
What can we expect from the chancellor’s second budget?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 20, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
njdavies.bsky.social
NEW: Labour inherited public services in crisis. Performance had fallen, investment had been cut + spending plans were undeliverable.

It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵
RAG table showing ratings for 9 public services. It includes the following summaries for progress since the 2024 election: General practice - Progress on salaried GPs, but no steps taken to make partnership more attractive Hospitals - Government has set out high-level ambitions and reduced competing priorities, but no detail of implementation Adult social care - Largely ignored. Ending the care visa route without a workable solution for Fair Pay Agreements could cause workforce shortages Children's social care - Government has set out a clear and ambitious vision for reform and has backed it with relatively generous funding Homelessness - Early signs are encouraging, but government has yet to set out its homelessness strategy Schools - Government's plan to reduce inequalities in schools and tackle teacher shortages are unclear, and the crisis in SEND services casts a long shadow Police - Government has made limited progress in increasing neighbourhood officer numbers and has yet to announce details of planned reforms Criminal Courts - Increasing court sitting days was welcome, if done too late, but the government has yet to announce a longer-term plan Prisons - Rapid action addressed the immediate population crisis, but there has been limited progress towards a longer-term solution
November 19, 2025 at 7:03 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
In two weeks' time, Rachel Reeves will deliver her second budget as chancellor.

Join us online on 26 November for our instant reaction to the chancellor's plan for the economy - with @danhaile.bsky.social @jillongovt.bsky.social @gilesyb.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/autumn...
November 12, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
benzaranko.bsky.social
An interesting piece which (rightly in my view) puts policy uncertainty front and centre. But I'm less convinced by the proposed policy prescription: if we kept a 2nd forecast, but don't formally assess rule compliance, what stops everyone else just reading off the OBR spreadsheet?
November 11, 2025 at 9:25 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
amberdellar.bsky.social
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Performance Tracker 2025: Schools | Institute for Government
It will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 6, 2025 at 9:57 AM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
NEW from me on why changes to public sector pensions should be on the table. But politicians must say how they'll cover big upfront costs, and focus on how remuneration can best support the workforce needed to improve public services - not on cuts
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/publ...
Public sector pensions reforms should focus on workforce recruitment and retention | Institute for Government
There is a strong case for looking at reforms to public sector pensions.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 6, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
gilesyb.bsky.social
"Yet unpopularity — even unpopularity as deep and bitter as that which Starmer is currently experiencing — need not be terminal, provided his MPs have faith in his plan and his vision"
@stephenkb.bsky.social smashes out brilliant points I am hoping to publish at greater length 1/

on.ft.com/478WcW7
Starmer needs to get serious about governing — and quick
The prime minister has to change or his party will seek a change of its own
on.ft.com
October 25, 2025 at 8:22 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
hcdunlop.bsky.social
Good comment from @timdurrant.bsky.social - DSIT has struggled to become the "digital centre of government" and faced a huge culture shift (it was mainly policy & science and engineering staff before GDS moved there from Cabinet Office). (1/2)
timdurrant.bsky.social Tim Durrant @timdurrant.bsky.social · Oct 23
Niche post: the government has announced that the Cabinet Office, rather than the Govt Digital Service (part of the Dept for Science and Tech, DSIT), will run the Digital ID programme

When Labour came in they moved much of govt's central digital capability to DSIT...

www.gov.uk/government/n...
Machinery of government: digital ID
The government has announced a machinery of government change
www.gov.uk
October 23, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
cassiarowland.bsky.social
NEW REPORT Criminal justice is coming apart at the seams. Police, criminal courts & prisons can’t cope with the level of demand and performance keeps spiralling downwards. Early positive steps from the government won't be enough to turn things around
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Performance Tracker 2025: Criminal justice system | Institute for Government
The government must act to avoid the justice system returning to the crisis point seen when Labour entered office, or worse.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
October 23, 2025 at 6:44 AM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Shifting to a more preventative approach rather than just meeting acute demand in these services is vital. But this shows we have long way to go to get to where we were 10-15 years ago. Great analysis from Stuart and the team
stuarthoddinott.bsky.social Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · Oct 16
The balance between acute and preventative services has shifted dramatically. E.g. children's services

Spending on services like children's centres is down 79% in real terms, while acute services (e.g. looked after children) is up 71%

That contributes to rising acute demand in the long-term
October 16, 2025 at 9:10 AM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Good to see Reeves defending the importance of SR settlements (where changes should be avoided). But disappointing if this means using highly optimistic assumptions re. future tech efficiencies (eg £45bn) to pencil in spending cuts beyond the SR period rather than confronting the need for tax reform
October 16, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
njdavies.bsky.social
The point of a multi-year spending review and regular SR cycle is to provide stability. That stability allows frontline public services to make long-term decisions that will deliver better outcomes and VfM. It's a big failure of policymaking if spending decisions are being reopened 4 months later
Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget
Speaking exclusively to Sky's deputy political editor Sam Coates, Rachel Reeves says Brexit, austerity, and the Liz Truss mini-budget have all played a role in damaging Britain's economy - as she prep...
news.sky.com
October 15, 2025 at 7:46 AM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Really looking forward to chatting with this brilliant panel about how to make sure pay and pensions help attract and keep the high-quality public sector workerforce the government needs
September 30, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government

New report by @njdavies.bsky.social and @drbenpaxton.bsky.social on how public procurement could support delivery of mission-led government, and the key barriers to this.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government | Institute for Government
How can the government remove the barriers to its missions?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
September 26, 2025 at 4:04 PM