Dan Oehm
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danoehm.bsky.social
Dan Oehm
@danoehm.bsky.social
🔔 Statistician 🫶 #Rstats 📈 #Dataviz 🏃‍♂️ Trail runner 🤘 Metalhead ❤️ Dad 🔥 #survivor 🌏 Canberran 🌿 Vego

Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
Pinned
I guess I'm over here as well and hoping it can achieve the critical mass needed to sustain people's interest.

Most people will know me for my data viz, R, and stats stuff. I'm also a runner, mountain biker, and a Dad. I mostly fit R around those other things!

Anyway, hi all 👋
This guy makes me want to be a professional jazz musician who has never listened to Tool and then listens to Tool for the first time #tool www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYoT...
Jazz Musician Reacts to TOOL - "Forty Six & 2"... Mind Blown AGAIN!
YouTube video by chris g
www.youtube.com
November 18, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Here's a short history of the Bank Your Vote advantage, some stats, and a controversial idea.

The Bank Your Vote advantage has only appeared 3 times - S35, S44, and most recently S49.

🧵 1/

#Survivor #Survivor49
November 18, 2025 at 11:42 AM
I've made a change to the challenge_results table to make it easier to handle challenges with multiple win criteria.

There's now a column for each challenge and outcome type. The column 'won' is 1 if any of the win criteria are met.

Now on Git 👍

#survivor #Rstats
November 17, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Thanks Josh and Bryan for inviting me on, it was a fun chat!

Happy to answer any clarifying questions about these predictions if anyone is interested.

#Survivor
Bryan and I had a really fun conversation with Dan on #FUPASU discussing a very complex six(ish)-person vote — as well as how these midseason predictions below work!

🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com

🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/31rw...
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

#survivor
#Survivor49 Predictions

Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
November 15, 2025 at 11:57 PM
#Survivor49 Predictions

Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Jawan is actually in a pretty good position. The total number of votes with other players is a good indicator of making it deep in the game.

Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6

#Survivor49
November 14, 2025 at 8:09 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour

Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x

The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
November 14, 2025 at 7:59 AM
#Survivor49 Chances of winning

Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.

It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.

#Survivor
November 9, 2025 at 8:01 AM
With Nate gone the oldest players in the game are Kristina and Steven (35) and the average age has dropped below 30.

Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)

#Survivor49
November 8, 2025 at 10:20 PM
TIL you can turn off the

`summarise()` has grouped output by...

message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍

#Rstats
November 8, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Did Alex and Sophi split their vote, or just not vote together? I wasn't paying attention.

Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.

#Survivor49
November 6, 2025 at 7:31 PM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour

Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈

There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.

#Survivor
November 6, 2025 at 7:12 PM
If Savannah is on one of the other social platforms, would someone mind sharing this with her? She might be interested in the optimal chicken strategy. tl;dr don't kill it.

#Survivor49
November 6, 2025 at 10:30 AM
I'm not going to change 'Sophi' to 'Soph' across the datasets. But I will do this to acknowledge it happened.

#Survivor49

(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
November 6, 2025 at 9:58 AM
MC, Kristina, and Sophie have not been to tribal council

The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.

#Survivor49
November 4, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Not quite sure what this means yet but I've plotted the % of players left in the game with a 100% successful boot record.

Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.

It's an interesting pattern though.

#Survivor49 #dataviz
November 1, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Reposted by Dan Oehm
The illustrious Rio Teixeira — artist behind many of your favorite #Survivor projects (including #FUPASU) — joined us to chat Sage v Shannon, galaxy brain knowledge is power ideas, & more!

🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com

🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/2RuK...
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

#survivor49
November 1, 2025 at 5:33 PM
I hate to break it to Jeff, but 3 tribes increases the places to hide and suppresses gameplay.

A 3 tribe set up is correlated with more people making it merge without attending tribal council at least once.

#Survivor
Today's #Survivor rabbit hole

After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council

What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
October 30, 2025 at 11:06 AM
#Survivor49 who has voted with who

This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made

Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli

I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
October 30, 2025 at 10:56 AM
#Survivor49 e6 confessionals per hour

Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐

Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
October 30, 2025 at 10:49 AM
How important is it to be on the right side of the vote after merge?

Turns out, massively important!

I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵

#Survivor #Survivor49
October 29, 2025 at 10:58 AM
In case anyone was wondering, if Kele farm the chicken eggs, bring the chickens to merge and agree to eat them at f5, then a Kele member in the f5 will consume 778 more calories than simply eating one chicken per day and sharing with the tribe from the time they were won 🥚🥚🥚

#Survivor49
October 27, 2025 at 4:43 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hr (CPH)

Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x

Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
October 24, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Today's #Survivor rabbit hole

After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council

What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
October 24, 2025 at 11:51 AM
@robsfactchecker.bsky.social was kind enough to share his polling data with me to test a couple of hypotheses:

1. A player gets more 'Love' with more confessionals and
2. Star is the most loved player, accounting for confessionals

But there was one other thing that stood out 🧵

#Survivor
October 20, 2025 at 7:37 PM