True! I was just trying to highlight the non-winning finalists. Should have used a different emoji!

It would open up the game to a lot more strategy!

*28%. Oops. You knew what I meant

At this point in the game, Savannah has the 4th highest chance in the new era

1. Ricard 37%
2. Austin 34%
3. Shan 29%
4. Savannah 38% 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Charlie 27%
6. Rachel 27%

which includes 1 winner, 2 2nd place finishers by 1 vote, and two likely winners if they made it through.

The Uli+Sophi 'alliance' all have an incentive to stack the jury with each other and sit next to Hina at the end based on the numbers.

How that happens is the tricky part. Can Savannah convince Rizo to not play his idol in an attempt to send him to the Jury and get his vote?

These are some of my favourite charts for a few reasons. The main reason is, there is a clear relationship between how many times someone has voted with another and if they get their vote at the final tribal council.

2/3

* 15 OG extra votes

Now the controversial idea....

For a new season, every player starts with a Bank Your Vote advantage!

In a numbers game, that's another level of calculation that needs to be made.

11/

So the effectiveness of Extra Votes (Banked Vote) may not be that high. Awesome in the right situation, but the right situations aren't that common.

They could also protect against flippers, but that's harder to measure.

10/

But also Savannah needs to not be in the majority for it to be effective as well.

In which case, the expected number of tribals there will be where she can play it to change the outcome is approx. 5*0.25*0.5 = 0.625 - so 0-1 tribals

She also may not attend all 5.

9/

What does that mean for Savannah?

Well, there are 5 tribal councils before and including the final 5 (assuming F5 is the last tribal it can be played).

There may only be 1 tribal where it will change the outcome (5*0.25) = ~1.

8/

25%

On average 25% of tribals are either a tie or differ by 1 vote.

Higher than I expected.

7/

So, how many tribals can we expect where the votes are likely to be very close, such that an extra vote will change the outcome?

In other words, how many tribals have been either a tie, or differ by 1 vote at or before the final 5?

6/

Why only 2 played successfully?

It is successfully played if it changes the outcome of the tribal. That means the extra vote needs to either force a tie or break a tie.

Maryanne (S42) is the only player to use it to break a tie.

5/

The question is now, will Savannah play the first successful BYV advantage?

It is similar to the Extra Vote in the sense that the player can place two votes at a tribal council.

There have been
- 16 Extra Votes
- 12 played
- 2 played successfully

4/

The advantage returned in S44. In ep 1 Lauren won the Bank Your Vote advantage on a journey

Yeah, the first two players to find the first two BYV advantages were named Lauren! Ask me what the odds are.

Lauren banked it in ep 1, Jaime received it in ep 9 and played it unsuccessfully for Heidi.

3/

Lauren in S35 was the first to find the Bank Your Vote advantage. She found it in ep 8 at camp.

She never used the advantage to bank her vote and was voted out with it in ep11.

2/

Vibes shouldn't be overlooked! There's a lot that isn't captured in the data that our gut picks up on!

Cheers! It's good when two independent sources line up. How do your power rankings work?

These odds are estimated directly from the data, but closer to the end of the season I feed in what people are saying into the model to balance the data with intuition.