Dan Oehm
@danoehm.bsky.social
🔔 Statistician 🫶 #Rstats 📈 #Dataviz 🏃♂️ Trail runner 🤘 Metalhead ❤️ Dad 🔥 #survivor 🌏 Canberran 🌿 Vego
Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
#Survivor49 predictions
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
November 21, 2025 at 5:19 AM
#Survivor49 predictions
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
#Survivor49 vote network
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
November 21, 2025 at 5:03 AM
#Survivor49 vote network
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
November 21, 2025 at 4:42 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
The advantage returned in S44. In ep 1 Lauren won the Bank Your Vote advantage on a journey
Yeah, the first two players to find the first two BYV advantages were named Lauren! Ask me what the odds are.
Lauren banked it in ep 1, Jaime received it in ep 9 and played it unsuccessfully for Heidi.
3/
Yeah, the first two players to find the first two BYV advantages were named Lauren! Ask me what the odds are.
Lauren banked it in ep 1, Jaime received it in ep 9 and played it unsuccessfully for Heidi.
3/
November 18, 2025 at 11:42 AM
The advantage returned in S44. In ep 1 Lauren won the Bank Your Vote advantage on a journey
Yeah, the first two players to find the first two BYV advantages were named Lauren! Ask me what the odds are.
Lauren banked it in ep 1, Jaime received it in ep 9 and played it unsuccessfully for Heidi.
3/
Yeah, the first two players to find the first two BYV advantages were named Lauren! Ask me what the odds are.
Lauren banked it in ep 1, Jaime received it in ep 9 and played it unsuccessfully for Heidi.
3/
Lauren in S35 was the first to find the Bank Your Vote advantage. She found it in ep 8 at camp.
She never used the advantage to bank her vote and was voted out with it in ep11.
2/
She never used the advantage to bank her vote and was voted out with it in ep11.
2/
November 18, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Lauren in S35 was the first to find the Bank Your Vote advantage. She found it in ep 8 at camp.
She never used the advantage to bank her vote and was voted out with it in ep11.
2/
She never used the advantage to bank her vote and was voted out with it in ep11.
2/
Here's a short history of the Bank Your Vote advantage, some stats, and a controversial idea.
The Bank Your Vote advantage has only appeared 3 times - S35, S44, and most recently S49.
🧵 1/
#Survivor #Survivor49
The Bank Your Vote advantage has only appeared 3 times - S35, S44, and most recently S49.
🧵 1/
#Survivor #Survivor49
November 18, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Here's a short history of the Bank Your Vote advantage, some stats, and a controversial idea.
The Bank Your Vote advantage has only appeared 3 times - S35, S44, and most recently S49.
🧵 1/
#Survivor #Survivor49
The Bank Your Vote advantage has only appeared 3 times - S35, S44, and most recently S49.
🧵 1/
#Survivor #Survivor49
#Survivor49 Predictions
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 AM
#Survivor49 Predictions
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
Jawan is actually in a pretty good position. The total number of votes with other players is a good indicator of making it deep in the game.
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
November 14, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Jawan is actually in a pretty good position. The total number of votes with other players is a good indicator of making it deep in the game.
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
November 14, 2025 at 7:59 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
#Survivor49 Chances of winning
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
November 9, 2025 at 8:01 AM
#Survivor49 Chances of winning
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
With Nate gone the oldest players in the game are Kristina and Steven (35) and the average age has dropped below 30.
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
November 8, 2025 at 10:20 PM
With Nate gone the oldest players in the game are Kristina and Steven (35) and the average age has dropped below 30.
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
TIL you can turn off the
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
November 8, 2025 at 11:14 AM
TIL you can turn off the
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
Did Alex and Sophi split their vote, or just not vote together? I wasn't paying attention.
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
November 6, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Did Alex and Sophi split their vote, or just not vote together? I wasn't paying attention.
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
November 6, 2025 at 7:12 PM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
If Savannah is on one of the other social platforms, would someone mind sharing this with her? She might be interested in the optimal chicken strategy. tl;dr don't kill it.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
November 6, 2025 at 10:30 AM
If Savannah is on one of the other social platforms, would someone mind sharing this with her? She might be interested in the optimal chicken strategy. tl;dr don't kill it.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
I'm not going to change 'Sophi' to 'Soph' across the datasets. But I will do this to acknowledge it happened.
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
November 6, 2025 at 9:58 AM
I'm not going to change 'Sophi' to 'Soph' across the datasets. But I will do this to acknowledge it happened.
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
MC, Kristina, and Sophie have not been to tribal council
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
November 4, 2025 at 10:25 AM
MC, Kristina, and Sophie have not been to tribal council
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
Not quite sure what this means yet but I've plotted the % of players left in the game with a 100% successful boot record.
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
November 1, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Not quite sure what this means yet but I've plotted the % of players left in the game with a 100% successful boot record.
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
#Survivor49 who has voted with who
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
October 30, 2025 at 10:56 AM
#Survivor49 who has voted with who
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
#Survivor49 e6 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
October 30, 2025 at 10:49 AM
#Survivor49 e6 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
How important is it to be on the right side of the vote after merge?
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
October 29, 2025 at 10:58 AM
How important is it to be on the right side of the vote after merge?
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
In case anyone was wondering, if Kele farm the chicken eggs, bring the chickens to merge and agree to eat them at f5, then a Kele member in the f5 will consume 778 more calories than simply eating one chicken per day and sharing with the tribe from the time they were won 🥚🥚🥚
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
October 27, 2025 at 4:43 AM
In case anyone was wondering, if Kele farm the chicken eggs, bring the chickens to merge and agree to eat them at f5, then a Kele member in the f5 will consume 778 more calories than simply eating one chicken per day and sharing with the tribe from the time they were won 🥚🥚🥚
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
#Survivor49 confessionals per hr (CPH)
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
October 24, 2025 at 11:53 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hr (CPH)
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected