Chris Rugaber
@chrisrugaber.bsky.social
Federal Reserve, economy reporter. I root for the economy to do well. Tell me your stories: contact me on Signal at ChrisRugaber.01 and at [email protected].
Brands are definitely bifurcating along with the economy, but you don't expect it to come from inside the company:
apnews.com/article/camp...
apnews.com/article/camp...
Campbell's IT chief on leave after lawsuit claims he said company's food is for 'poor people'
The Campbell’s Co. said Tuesday it has placed one of its executives on leave while it investigates claims that he made racist comments and mocked the company’s products and customers in an audio recor...
apnews.com
November 25, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Brands are definitely bifurcating along with the economy, but you don't expect it to come from inside the company:
apnews.com/article/camp...
apnews.com/article/camp...
Reposted by Chris Rugaber
“A tamale vendor was detained outside a Home Depot.
“Soon after, federal agents arrested a flower seller in Archer Heights.
“Then they came for a cotton candy vendor in Little Village.”
apnews.com/article/chic...
“Soon after, federal agents arrested a flower seller in Archer Heights.
“Then they came for a cotton candy vendor in Little Village.”
apnews.com/article/chic...
Chicagoans buy out street vendors amid a federal immigration crackdown
Across Chicago’s Latino neighborhoods, fear of a federal immigration crackdown has emptied the streets.
apnews.com
November 24, 2025 at 12:51 AM
“A tamale vendor was detained outside a Home Depot.
“Soon after, federal agents arrested a flower seller in Archer Heights.
“Then they came for a cotton candy vendor in Little Village.”
apnews.com/article/chic...
“Soon after, federal agents arrested a flower seller in Archer Heights.
“Then they came for a cotton candy vendor in Little Village.”
apnews.com/article/chic...
Odds of a December rate cut have RISEN after jobs report, likely because uptick in unemployment rate, which Fed sees as better metric than jobs since it captures changes in immigration/population.
Still, seems wrong -- rate cut is predicated on threat of rapid drop in hiring, which didn't happen.
Still, seems wrong -- rate cut is predicated on threat of rapid drop in hiring, which didn't happen.
November 20, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Odds of a December rate cut have RISEN after jobs report, likely because uptick in unemployment rate, which Fed sees as better metric than jobs since it captures changes in immigration/population.
Still, seems wrong -- rate cut is predicated on threat of rapid drop in hiring, which didn't happen.
Still, seems wrong -- rate cut is predicated on threat of rapid drop in hiring, which didn't happen.
November 19, 2025 at 8:46 PM
November 19, 2025 at 3:00 PM
WASHINGTON (AP) — What was once seen as a near-certain cut in interest rates next month now looks more like a coin flip as Federal Reserve officials sharply disagree over the economy’s health and whether stubborn inflation or weak hiring represent a bigger threat.
apnews.com/article/econ...
apnews.com/article/econ...
Sharp disagreements over economy threaten Federal Reserve interest rate cut
What was once seen as a near-certain cut in interest rates next month now looks more like a coin flip as Federal Reserve officials sharply disagree over the economy’s health and whether stubborn…
apnews.com
November 18, 2025 at 10:09 PM
WASHINGTON (AP) — What was once seen as a near-certain cut in interest rates next month now looks more like a coin flip as Federal Reserve officials sharply disagree over the economy’s health and whether stubborn inflation or weak hiring represent a bigger threat.
apnews.com/article/econ...
apnews.com/article/econ...
Calls for 4-5 dissents at the Federal Reserve's Dec. meeting are likely exaggerated. Still, this comment from Fed Gov. Waller yesterday is interesting, re: alleged 'group think':
“People who are accusing us of this, get ready. You might see the least group think you’ve seen... in a long time.”
“People who are accusing us of this, get ready. You might see the least group think you’ve seen... in a long time.”
November 18, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Calls for 4-5 dissents at the Federal Reserve's Dec. meeting are likely exaggerated. Still, this comment from Fed Gov. Waller yesterday is interesting, re: alleged 'group think':
“People who are accusing us of this, get ready. You might see the least group think you’ve seen... in a long time.”
“People who are accusing us of this, get ready. You might see the least group think you’ve seen... in a long time.”
You can see why the White House is going to exempt coffee, beef, and bananas (among many other foods) from tariffs: coffee and banana prices are near highest levels in more than a decade, worse than the pandemic (not all because of tariffs). Ground beef also trending higher:
November 17, 2025 at 1:00 PM
You can see why the White House is going to exempt coffee, beef, and bananas (among many other foods) from tariffs: coffee and banana prices are near highest levels in more than a decade, worse than the pandemic (not all because of tariffs). Ground beef also trending higher:
Federal Reserve chair candidate Kevin Warsh in Sunday's op-ed in WSJ praises Trump policies, US innovation, and this year's Nobel laureates, who won for research on innovation. Yet the winners seemed to have a different view of Trump policies, as NYT noted:
www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
www.wsj.com
November 17, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Federal Reserve chair candidate Kevin Warsh in Sunday's op-ed in WSJ praises Trump policies, US innovation, and this year's Nobel laureates, who won for research on innovation. Yet the winners seemed to have a different view of Trump policies, as NYT noted:
www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
Amazing story here -- Officials at Fannie Mae sounded alarm about potentially inappopriate data sharing by Trump appointees, got fired. @apnews.com:
apnews.com/article/fann...
apnews.com/article/fann...
Top Fannie Mae officials ousted after sounding alarm on sharing confidential housing data
A confidant of Bill Pulte, the Trump administration’s top housing regulator, provided confidential mortgage pricing data from Fannie Mae to a principal competitor.
apnews.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Amazing story here -- Officials at Fannie Mae sounded alarm about potentially inappopriate data sharing by Trump appointees, got fired. @apnews.com:
apnews.com/article/fann...
apnews.com/article/fann...
Reposted by Chris Rugaber
I cannot emphasize enough that increasing foreign investment in the US and shrinking US trade deficits are in direct, irreconcilable tension w/ one another.
*US TO LOWER TARIFF RATE ON SWISS GOODS TO 15%, GREER SAYS
*SWITZERLAND AGREED TO $200B INVESTMENT IN THE US, GREER SAYS
*US TO LOWER TARIFF RATE ON SWISS GOODS TO 15%, GREER SAYS
*SWITZERLAND AGREED TO $200B INVESTMENT IN THE US, GREER SAYS
November 14, 2025 at 1:56 PM
I cannot emphasize enough that increasing foreign investment in the US and shrinking US trade deficits are in direct, irreconcilable tension w/ one another.
*US TO LOWER TARIFF RATE ON SWISS GOODS TO 15%, GREER SAYS
*SWITZERLAND AGREED TO $200B INVESTMENT IN THE US, GREER SAYS
*US TO LOWER TARIFF RATE ON SWISS GOODS TO 15%, GREER SAYS
*SWITZERLAND AGREED TO $200B INVESTMENT IN THE US, GREER SAYS
St. Louis Fed's Musalem adds to chorus of caution about future Fed rate cuts in remarks just now:
"Going forward, I think we need to...tread with caution. ... there is limited room" for more cuts.
Says Fed's rate is "probably getting closer to neutral rather than modestly restrictive"
"Going forward, I think we need to...tread with caution. ... there is limited room" for more cuts.
Says Fed's rate is "probably getting closer to neutral rather than modestly restrictive"
November 13, 2025 at 6:59 PM
St. Louis Fed's Musalem adds to chorus of caution about future Fed rate cuts in remarks just now:
"Going forward, I think we need to...tread with caution. ... there is limited room" for more cuts.
Says Fed's rate is "probably getting closer to neutral rather than modestly restrictive"
"Going forward, I think we need to...tread with caution. ... there is limited room" for more cuts.
Says Fed's rate is "probably getting closer to neutral rather than modestly restrictive"
Boston Fed's Susan Collins is the latest Fed official to come out against another rate cut in December, putting a third cut this year at risk. Atlanta Fed's Bostic also forcefully spoke against another rate cut earlier Wednesday:
November 12, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Boston Fed's Susan Collins is the latest Fed official to come out against another rate cut in December, putting a third cut this year at risk. Atlanta Fed's Bostic also forcefully spoke against another rate cut earlier Wednesday:
Reposted by Chris Rugaber
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
WHITE HOUSE: FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM MAY HAVE PERMANENTLY BEEN DAMAGED WHITE HOUSE: OCTOBER JOBS REPORTS LIKELY NEVER RELEASED
November 12, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic to retire in Feb. 2026, opening spot on key Fed interest-rate setting committee.
Trump won't be able to name replacement -- successor to be chosen by Atlanta Fed's board. DC-based Fed board of governors will vote on replacement.
Trump won't be able to name replacement -- successor to be chosen by Atlanta Fed's board. DC-based Fed board of governors will vote on replacement.
November 12, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic to retire in Feb. 2026, opening spot on key Fed interest-rate setting committee.
Trump won't be able to name replacement -- successor to be chosen by Atlanta Fed's board. DC-based Fed board of governors will vote on replacement.
Trump won't be able to name replacement -- successor to be chosen by Atlanta Fed's board. DC-based Fed board of governors will vote on replacement.
Reposted by Chris Rugaber
“It’s an insider-outsider thing… where outsiders that need jobs are struggling to get their foot in, even as insiders are insulated by what up until now is a low-layoff environment.” - what I told @apnews.com ‘s @chrisrugaber.bsky.social
'No hire' job market leaves unemployed in limbo as threats to economy multiply
The unemployment rate is low and the economy is still growing, but those out of work face the slowest pace of hiring in more than a decade.
apnews.com
November 12, 2025 at 2:18 AM
“It’s an insider-outsider thing… where outsiders that need jobs are struggling to get their foot in, even as insiders are insulated by what up until now is a low-layoff environment.” - what I told @apnews.com ‘s @chrisrugaber.bsky.social
Reposted by Chris Rugaber
Trump trade war costs US Italian pasta: “Exporters say import and antidumping duties totaling 107% on their pasta brands will make doing business in America too costly and are preparing to pull out of U.S. stores as soon as January.” Via WSJ
Italian Pasta Is Poised to Disappear From American Grocery Shelves — The Wall Street Journal
Trump administration is set to impose duties of 107% on Italian pasta imports, among most punitive of tariffs it has levied
apple.news
November 10, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Trump trade war costs US Italian pasta: “Exporters say import and antidumping duties totaling 107% on their pasta brands will make doing business in America too costly and are preparing to pull out of U.S. stores as soon as January.” Via WSJ
Always nice to see the @apnews.com ahead …
November 10, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Always nice to see the @apnews.com ahead …
No jobs report today because of the government shutdown, but other reports suggest hiring remained weak last month.
The 'low hire' job market makes life difficult for the unemployed and is leading to longer spells of unemployment, which is unusual outside a recession:
apnews.com/article/jobs...
The 'low hire' job market makes life difficult for the unemployed and is leading to longer spells of unemployment, which is unusual outside a recession:
apnews.com/article/jobs...
'No hire' job market leaves unemployed in limbo as threats to economy multiply
The unemployment rate is low and the economy is still growing, but those out of work face the slowest pace of hiring in more than a decade.
apnews.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:49 PM
No jobs report today because of the government shutdown, but other reports suggest hiring remained weak last month.
The 'low hire' job market makes life difficult for the unemployed and is leading to longer spells of unemployment, which is unusual outside a recession:
apnews.com/article/jobs...
The 'low hire' job market makes life difficult for the unemployed and is leading to longer spells of unemployment, which is unusual outside a recession:
apnews.com/article/jobs...
Reposted by Chris Rugaber
The Trump administration alleges the boats targeted by recent U.S. strikes were being operated by narco-terrorists and cartel members. The AP identified four of the men who were on the boats—and found the truth is far more nuanced.
Trump has accused boat crews of being narco-terrorists. The truth, AP found, is more nuanced
One was a fisherman struggling to eke out a living on $100 a month. Another was a career criminal. A third was a former military cadet.
bit.ly
November 7, 2025 at 12:00 PM
The Trump administration alleges the boats targeted by recent U.S. strikes were being operated by narco-terrorists and cartel members. The AP identified four of the men who were on the boats—and found the truth is far more nuanced.
Reposted by Chris Rugaber
“This case, ladies and gentleman of the jury, is about a sandwich.”
Closing arguments from the defense in the DC sandwich guy case are now underway.
Closing arguments from the defense in the DC sandwich guy case are now underway.
November 5, 2025 at 6:57 PM
“This case, ladies and gentleman of the jury, is about a sandwich.”
Closing arguments from the defense in the DC sandwich guy case are now underway.
Closing arguments from the defense in the DC sandwich guy case are now underway.
ADP's jobs tally shows a rebound last month with 42,000 net jobs gained, after 2 months of losses.
Yet high-paying sectors like professional & business services (accounting, etc.) and information (IT) lost jobs; so did restaurants & hotels, a worrying sign of a weak consumer:
Yet high-paying sectors like professional & business services (accounting, etc.) and information (IT) lost jobs; so did restaurants & hotels, a worrying sign of a weak consumer:
November 5, 2025 at 2:30 PM
ADP's jobs tally shows a rebound last month with 42,000 net jobs gained, after 2 months of losses.
Yet high-paying sectors like professional & business services (accounting, etc.) and information (IT) lost jobs; so did restaurants & hotels, a worrying sign of a weak consumer:
Yet high-paying sectors like professional & business services (accounting, etc.) and information (IT) lost jobs; so did restaurants & hotels, a worrying sign of a weak consumer:
Reposted by Chris Rugaber
BREAKING: Democrat Aftab Pureval wins Cincinnati mayoral election over Cory Bowman, half-brother of Vice President JD Vance.
Follow AP for live updates.
Follow AP for live updates.
Live updates: US voters head to the polls in first general election since Trump's return to power
One year after Donald Trump retook the presidency, 2025 Election Day includes closely watched races for New York City mayor, New Jersey governor and California's Proposition 50.
bit.ly
November 5, 2025 at 1:19 AM
BREAKING: Democrat Aftab Pureval wins Cincinnati mayoral election over Cory Bowman, half-brother of Vice President JD Vance.
Follow AP for live updates.
Follow AP for live updates.
Reposted by Chris Rugaber
BREAKING: Democrat Ghazala Hashmi won the lieutenant governor’s race in Virginia on Tuesday, defeating Republican John Reid. She is the first Indian American and first Muslim to win statewide office in Virginia.
Follow AP for live updates.
Follow AP for live updates.
Live updates: US voters head to the polls in first general election since Trump's return to power
One year after Donald Trump retook the presidency, 2025 Election Day includes closely watched races for New York City mayor, New Jersey governor and California's Proposition 50.
bit.ly
November 5, 2025 at 1:34 AM
BREAKING: Democrat Ghazala Hashmi won the lieutenant governor’s race in Virginia on Tuesday, defeating Republican John Reid. She is the first Indian American and first Muslim to win statewide office in Virginia.
Follow AP for live updates.
Follow AP for live updates.
Reposted by Chris Rugaber
Read the November issue of Economic Compass by
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. She examines how on the one hand, the economy is booming, mostly on AI investment. On the other hand, the labor market is lagging, something that started this year. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. She examines how on the one hand, the economy is booming, mostly on AI investment. On the other hand, the labor market is lagging, something that started this year. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Rising tide fails to lift all boats
A jobless boom
kpmg.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Read the November issue of Economic Compass by
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. She examines how on the one hand, the economy is booming, mostly on AI investment. On the other hand, the labor market is lagging, something that started this year. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. She examines how on the one hand, the economy is booming, mostly on AI investment. On the other hand, the labor market is lagging, something that started this year. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...