Christopher Boyer
@cboyer.bsky.social
Assistant Professor, Case Western Reserve University (CCLCM). Staff Biostatistician, Cleveland Clinic.
Epidemiologist interested in causal inference, infectious disease, trial design
https://christopherbboyer.com/about.html
#causalsky #statssky #episky
Epidemiologist interested in causal inference, infectious disease, trial design
https://christopherbboyer.com/about.html
#causalsky #statssky #episky
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
If you've ever found any of my work helpful, consider donating to the Python Software Foundation
Learning Python during my PhD and translating everything between programming languages helped me build my understanding of causal inference. It is also why I know estimating equations as well as I do
Learning Python during my PhD and translating everything between programming languages helped me build my understanding of causal inference. It is also why I know estimating equations as well as I do
TLDR; The PSF has made the decision to put our community and our shared diversity, equity, and inclusion values ahead of seeking $1.5M in new revenue. Please read and share. pyfound.blogspot.com/2025/10/NSF-...
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The official home of the Python Programming Language
www.python.org
October 28, 2025 at 12:18 PM
If you've ever found any of my work helpful, consider donating to the Python Software Foundation
Learning Python during my PhD and translating everything between programming languages helped me build my understanding of causal inference. It is also why I know estimating equations as well as I do
Learning Python during my PhD and translating everything between programming languages helped me build my understanding of causal inference. It is also why I know estimating equations as well as I do
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
Among preterm infants with severe thrombocytopenia, this modeling study found substantial variation among individuals in predicted benefits and harms of prophylactic platelet transfusion based on their current clinical characteristics.
ja.ma/43esYCF
ja.ma/43esYCF
October 16, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Among preterm infants with severe thrombocytopenia, this modeling study found substantial variation among individuals in predicted benefits and harms of prophylactic platelet transfusion based on their current clinical characteristics.
ja.ma/43esYCF
ja.ma/43esYCF
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
I am open to the idea that there are people who don't have and don't want to gain the skills to engage directly with their data but every single day that I do I learn the answer to a question you'd never even think to ask unless you were personally staring into the abyss of an uncleaned dataset.
October 10, 2025 at 6:35 PM
I am open to the idea that there are people who don't have and don't want to gain the skills to engage directly with their data but every single day that I do I learn the answer to a question you'd never even think to ask unless you were personally staring into the abyss of an uncleaned dataset.
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
For years I had trouble following some of the discussion about confidence bands, but at ACIC this year @noahgreifer.bsky.social pointed me to a helpful paper
So you don't have to be as perplexed as I once was, we have a new pre-print introducing the key ideas
arxiv.org/abs/2510.07076
So you don't have to be as perplexed as I once was, we have a new pre-print introducing the key ideas
arxiv.org/abs/2510.07076
Confidence Regions for Multiple Outcomes, Effect Modifiers, and Other Multiple Comparisons
In epidemiology, some have argued that multiple comparison corrections are not necessary as there is rarely interest in the universal null hypothesis. From a parameter estimation perspective, epidemio...
arxiv.org
October 9, 2025 at 3:34 PM
For years I had trouble following some of the discussion about confidence bands, but at ACIC this year @noahgreifer.bsky.social pointed me to a helpful paper
So you don't have to be as perplexed as I once was, we have a new pre-print introducing the key ideas
arxiv.org/abs/2510.07076
So you don't have to be as perplexed as I once was, we have a new pre-print introducing the key ideas
arxiv.org/abs/2510.07076
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
I have an interesting case study on this actually. So at the beginning of the semester, I was preparing a bit on the (mis)use of LLMs for the course I co-teach
One of things I did was have it summarize one of my own papers, since people say "it's so good at it"
arxiv.org/abs/2503.02789
One of things I did was have it summarize one of my own papers, since people say "it's so good at it"
arxiv.org/abs/2503.02789
Accounting for Missing Data in Public Health Research Using a Synthesis of Statistical and Mathematical Models
Introduction: Missing data is a challenge to medical research. Accounting for missing data by imputing or weighting conditional on covariates relies on the variable with missingness being observed at ...
arxiv.org
October 9, 2025 at 3:05 PM
I have an interesting case study on this actually. So at the beginning of the semester, I was preparing a bit on the (mis)use of LLMs for the course I co-teach
One of things I did was have it summarize one of my own papers, since people say "it's so good at it"
arxiv.org/abs/2503.02789
One of things I did was have it summarize one of my own papers, since people say "it's so good at it"
arxiv.org/abs/2503.02789
In another paper out this week, we also discuss an alternative approach --- i.e., transporting prediction models derived in a trial setting to a target population.
👉 doi.org/10.1186/s415...
👉 doi.org/10.1186/s415...
October 8, 2025 at 2:37 PM
In another paper out this week, we also discuss an alternative approach --- i.e., transporting prediction models derived in a trial setting to a target population.
👉 doi.org/10.1186/s415...
👉 doi.org/10.1186/s415...
🚨 New paper in Statistics in Medicine!
We develop a framework for estimation and evaluation of prediction models that aim to answer causal questions — i.e., what would happen under hypothetical interventions.
👉 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
We develop a framework for estimation and evaluation of prediction models that aim to answer causal questions — i.e., what would happen under hypothetical interventions.
👉 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Estimating and Evaluating Counterfactual Prediction Models
Counterfactual prediction methods are required when a model will be deployed in a setting where treatment policies differ from the setting where the model was developed, or when a model provides pred....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
October 8, 2025 at 2:36 PM
🚨 New paper in Statistics in Medicine!
We develop a framework for estimation and evaluation of prediction models that aim to answer causal questions — i.e., what would happen under hypothetical interventions.
👉 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
We develop a framework for estimation and evaluation of prediction models that aim to answer causal questions — i.e., what would happen under hypothetical interventions.
👉 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
#statsky If I’m writing a protocol for 1) developing a prediction model and 2) an RCT to test implementation of said model within a health system would you publish 1 and 2 together or separately or neither?
October 1, 2025 at 11:52 PM
#statsky If I’m writing a protocol for 1) developing a prediction model and 2) an RCT to test implementation of said model within a health system would you publish 1 and 2 together or separately or neither?
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
Time Sensitive: Public comment on Schedule F (removing civil service protections for many federal employees INCLUDING THOSE WITH AUTHORITY OVER GRANTS) ends tomorrow. Notice is here: www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/... . Comment here (green button) www.federalregister.gov/documents/20... .
www.govinfo.gov
May 22, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Time Sensitive: Public comment on Schedule F (removing civil service protections for many federal employees INCLUDING THOSE WITH AUTHORITY OVER GRANTS) ends tomorrow. Notice is here: www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/... . Comment here (green button) www.federalregister.gov/documents/20... .
You have a trial with following characteristics: participants are recruited and randomly assigned 1:1 to an intervention delivered in groups or control. Those assigned to intervention are further randomized to the group they are to receive intervention in.
QUESTION: is this a “cluster” RCT? #stats
QUESTION: is this a “cluster” RCT? #stats
May 12, 2025 at 3:01 PM
You have a trial with following characteristics: participants are recruited and randomly assigned 1:1 to an intervention delivered in groups or control. Those assigned to intervention are further randomized to the group they are to receive intervention in.
QUESTION: is this a “cluster” RCT? #stats
QUESTION: is this a “cluster” RCT? #stats
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
New preprint with Kendrick Li, Xu Shi, and Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen! We revisit the test-negative design (TND) and propose alternative identifiability assumptions and estimators of vaccine effectiveness (VE) under “equip-confounding".
arxiv.org/abs/2504.20360
arxiv.org/abs/2504.20360
Identification and estimation of vaccine effectiveness in the test-negative design under equi-confounding
The test-negative design (TND) is frequently used to evaluate vaccine effectiveness in real-world settings. In a TND study, individuals with similar symptoms who seek care are tested for the disease o...
arxiv.org
May 5, 2025 at 4:03 PM
New preprint with Kendrick Li, Xu Shi, and Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen! We revisit the test-negative design (TND) and propose alternative identifiability assumptions and estimators of vaccine effectiveness (VE) under “equip-confounding".
arxiv.org/abs/2504.20360
arxiv.org/abs/2504.20360
New preprint with Kendrick Li, Xu Shi, and Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen! We revisit the test-negative design (TND) and propose alternative identifiability assumptions and estimators of vaccine effectiveness (VE) under “equip-confounding".
arxiv.org/abs/2504.20360
arxiv.org/abs/2504.20360
Identification and estimation of vaccine effectiveness in the test-negative design under equi-confounding
The test-negative design (TND) is frequently used to evaluate vaccine effectiveness in real-world settings. In a TND study, individuals with similar symptoms who seek care are tested for the disease o...
arxiv.org
May 5, 2025 at 4:03 PM
New preprint with Kendrick Li, Xu Shi, and Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen! We revisit the test-negative design (TND) and propose alternative identifiability assumptions and estimators of vaccine effectiveness (VE) under “equip-confounding".
arxiv.org/abs/2504.20360
arxiv.org/abs/2504.20360
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
April 24, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
Thesis: most published findings are false/waste and we need a movement to
fix this.
Antithesis: science reform is broken, falls prey to same tendency to overclaim, and is politically weaponized.
Synthesis: ????
fix this.
Antithesis: science reform is broken, falls prey to same tendency to overclaim, and is politically weaponized.
Synthesis: ????
February 24, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Thesis: most published findings are false/waste and we need a movement to
fix this.
Antithesis: science reform is broken, falls prey to same tendency to overclaim, and is politically weaponized.
Synthesis: ????
fix this.
Antithesis: science reform is broken, falls prey to same tendency to overclaim, and is politically weaponized.
Synthesis: ????
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
I have confirmation from my (HI) State DOH that PRAMS is paused as of last Thurs. All new data collected after Jan 31 are rejected.
Which epis in other states, esp those without large MCH research presence, are interested in standing up alternatives?
Also an opportunity to educate on data! 📩 me!
Which epis in other states, esp those without large MCH research presence, are interested in standing up alternatives?
Also an opportunity to educate on data! 📩 me!
For 38 years, PRAMS has collected critical data on maternal-child health with the goal to reduce infant morbidity and mortality. CDC has officially halted the 2024 PRAMS data collection for the participating 46 states and the future is uncertain.
PRAMS
Surveillance project of CDC and health departments used to improve maternal and infant health.
www.cdc.gov
February 24, 2025 at 7:55 PM
I have confirmation from my (HI) State DOH that PRAMS is paused as of last Thurs. All new data collected after Jan 31 are rejected.
Which epis in other states, esp those without large MCH research presence, are interested in standing up alternatives?
Also an opportunity to educate on data! 📩 me!
Which epis in other states, esp those without large MCH research presence, are interested in standing up alternatives?
Also an opportunity to educate on data! 📩 me!
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
I agree that there's a lot of bad science out there and am, er, somewhat sceptical of the quality control mechanisms we have to put the point mildly. But, like, point estimates of the amount of research waste are, to me, just on their face very implausible. I don't think I could possibly trust that?
Must-read from the founders of @retractionwatch.com - about 85% of science is research waste, less than 50% of preclinical cancer research is replicable, and predatory publishers thrive: science has a serious quality control problem, and we're all in trouble.
www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...
www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...
The Scientific Literature Can’t Save You Now
You can cite peer-reviewed research in support of almost any claim, no matter how absurd.
www.theatlantic.com
February 24, 2025 at 5:08 PM
I agree that there's a lot of bad science out there and am, er, somewhat sceptical of the quality control mechanisms we have to put the point mildly. But, like, point estimates of the amount of research waste are, to me, just on their face very implausible. I don't think I could possibly trust that?
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
Yeah it's a mess out there (here?)
But there is a reason I am working in the science reform movement (such as it is):
There are actual potential paths forward that build on what the science reform movement has made over the last decade. But no easy solutions.
But there is a reason I am working in the science reform movement (such as it is):
There are actual potential paths forward that build on what the science reform movement has made over the last decade. But no easy solutions.
February 24, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Yeah it's a mess out there (here?)
But there is a reason I am working in the science reform movement (such as it is):
There are actual potential paths forward that build on what the science reform movement has made over the last decade. But no easy solutions.
But there is a reason I am working in the science reform movement (such as it is):
There are actual potential paths forward that build on what the science reform movement has made over the last decade. But no easy solutions.
Thesis: most published findings are false/waste and we need a movement to
fix this.
Antithesis: science reform is broken, falls prey to same tendency to overclaim, and is politically weaponized.
Synthesis: ????
fix this.
Antithesis: science reform is broken, falls prey to same tendency to overclaim, and is politically weaponized.
Synthesis: ????
February 24, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Thesis: most published findings are false/waste and we need a movement to
fix this.
Antithesis: science reform is broken, falls prey to same tendency to overclaim, and is politically weaponized.
Synthesis: ????
fix this.
Antithesis: science reform is broken, falls prey to same tendency to overclaim, and is politically weaponized.
Synthesis: ????
I feel like there hasn’t been enough reporting on the fact that there’s effectively a 21st century patronage system now in which far more people are bound financially to the “success” of the dear leader than any 19th century political boss could have dreamed.
February 5, 2025 at 12:32 AM
I feel like there hasn’t been enough reporting on the fact that there’s effectively a 21st century patronage system now in which far more people are bound financially to the “success” of the dear leader than any 19th century political boss could have dreamed.
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
Very concerning news about the future of USAID from Sen Murphy below:
February 1, 2025 at 12:46 AM
Very concerning news about the future of USAID from Sen Murphy below:
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
"Randomized trials should be used to answer any causal question that can be so studied...
But the reality is that observational methods are used everyday to answer pressing causal questions that cannot be studied in randomized trials."
- Jamie Robins, 2002
tinyurl.com/4yuxfxes
tinyurl.com/zncp39mr
But the reality is that observational methods are used everyday to answer pressing causal questions that cannot be studied in randomized trials."
- Jamie Robins, 2002
tinyurl.com/4yuxfxes
tinyurl.com/zncp39mr
January 13, 2025 at 2:49 AM
"Randomized trials should be used to answer any causal question that can be so studied...
But the reality is that observational methods are used everyday to answer pressing causal questions that cannot be studied in randomized trials."
- Jamie Robins, 2002
tinyurl.com/4yuxfxes
tinyurl.com/zncp39mr
But the reality is that observational methods are used everyday to answer pressing causal questions that cannot be studied in randomized trials."
- Jamie Robins, 2002
tinyurl.com/4yuxfxes
tinyurl.com/zncp39mr
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
Now published in AJE: academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
December 15, 2024 at 12:45 AM
Now published in AJE: academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
Does anyone know any literature on randomization-based inference for sequential trials? As you add time points I assume the randomization distribution quickly gets quite complex and wonder if there are more efficient sampling strategies?
December 14, 2024 at 12:38 AM
Does anyone know any literature on randomization-based inference for sequential trials? As you add time points I assume the randomization distribution quickly gets quite complex and wonder if there are more efficient sampling strategies?
Reposted by Christopher Boyer
New preprint out with Ziyuan Zhang (master's student) and Chris Boyer www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1... showing through simulation that a variant of the test-negative design can estimate the protection associated with an exposure-proximal correlate of protection for immunity to symptomatic infection
Use of the test-negative design to estimate the protective effect of a scalar immune measure: A simulation analysis
Background: The relationship between antibody levels (more generally, a scalar measure of immune protection) at the time of exposure to infection (so-called exposure-proximal correlates of protection)...
www.medrxiv.org
November 24, 2024 at 4:03 PM
New preprint out with Ziyuan Zhang (master's student) and Chris Boyer www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1... showing through simulation that a variant of the test-negative design can estimate the protection associated with an exposure-proximal correlate of protection for immunity to symptomatic infection
How much of academia is just reformatting your CV to another new template?
October 29, 2024 at 6:38 PM
How much of academia is just reformatting your CV to another new template?