CBI Economics
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Posts from the economics directorate of the CBI. Follow us for updates and analysis on the UK economy, tax & fiscal policy, our business surveys, and consulting projects.
Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell in the year to November at a slightly quicker rate to October. Sales are set to decline at the same pace next month.
November 25, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell in the year to November at a slightly quicker rate to October. Sales are set to decline at the same pace next month.
Selling price inflation fell closer to the long-run average in the year to November, following a sharp rise in August. Retailers anticipate selling price growth to ease slightly again next month.
November 25, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Selling price inflation fell closer to the long-run average in the year to November, following a sharp rise in August. Retailers anticipate selling price growth to ease slightly again next month.
Headcount in retail declined again in the year to November and is expected to fall at a slightly faster pace next month.
November 25, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Headcount in retail declined again in the year to November and is expected to fall at a slightly faster pace next month.
Retailers plan to pull back investment in the year ahead. Investment intentions remain historically weak and have now been negative for three-and-a-half years.
November 25, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Retailers plan to pull back investment in the year ahead. Investment intentions remain historically weak and have now been negative for three-and-a-half years.
Retailers judged November’s sales volumes to be “poor” for the time of year, to a somewhat greater extent than in October. December’s sales are set to continue disappointing, to a comparable degree.
November 25, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Retailers judged November’s sales volumes to be “poor” for the time of year, to a somewhat greater extent than in October. December’s sales are set to continue disappointing, to a comparable degree.
Retail sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the year to November, extending a period of weakness that goes back to mid-2023. Retailers expect sales set to fall again heading into December, albeit at a somewhat slower pace.
November 25, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Retail sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the year to November, extending a period of weakness that goes back to mid-2023. Retailers expect sales set to fall again heading into December, albeit at a somewhat slower pace.
Retailers were hit by Budget worries in November, with sentiment about the business situation recording its steepest fall in 17 years – according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey.
November 25, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Retailers were hit by Budget worries in November, with sentiment about the business situation recording its steepest fall in 17 years – according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey.
Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week
November 24, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week
October’s fall in retail sales was broad-based across all four main sectors. Following strong activity seen over the summer, some retailers attributed this recent drop in sales to consumers delaying their purchases in anticipation of Black Friday discounts.
November 21, 2025 at 10:13 AM
October’s fall in retail sales was broad-based across all four main sectors. Following strong activity seen over the summer, some retailers attributed this recent drop in sales to consumers delaying their purchases in anticipation of Black Friday discounts.
Retail sales volumes fell sharply in October, by 1.1%, marking the first fall since May 2025. Despite the monthly decline, underlying momentum was boosted by sales growth over the summer, with volumes rising by 1.1% over the three months to October.
November 21, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Retail sales volumes fell sharply in October, by 1.1%, marking the first fall since May 2025. Despite the monthly decline, underlying momentum was boosted by sales growth over the summer, with volumes rising by 1.1% over the three months to October.
Stocks of finished goods were reported as more than “adequate” in November, and stand slightly above the long-run average.
November 20, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Stocks of finished goods were reported as more than “adequate” in November, and stand slightly above the long-run average.
Total order books and export order books were reported as below “normal” in November. Both stand below their respective long-run averages.
November 20, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Total order books and export order books were reported as below “normal” in November. Both stand below their respective long-run averages.
Expectations for average selling price inflation eased in November, and stand in ling with the long-run average.
November 20, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Expectations for average selling price inflation eased in November, and stand in ling with the long-run average.
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to November, the sharpest pace of decline since the three months to August 2020. Manufacturers expect output volumes to decline again in the next three months.
November 20, 2025 at 11:04 AM
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to November, the sharpest pace of decline since the three months to August 2020. Manufacturers expect output volumes to decline again in the next three months.
Utility bills made the largest downward contribution to slowing inflation, reflecting a smaller rise in Ofgem’s energy price cap change in October (2%) relative to this time last year (10%). This more than offset upward contributions from food & drink and other key categories.
November 19, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Utility bills made the largest downward contribution to slowing inflation, reflecting a smaller rise in Ofgem’s energy price cap change in October (2%) relative to this time last year (10%). This more than offset upward contributions from food & drink and other key categories.
UK CPI inflation slowed to 3.6% in October, down from its 3.8% peak and in line with consensus expectations. Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) eased further to 3.4% (from 3.5% in September)
November 19, 2025 at 10:34 AM
UK CPI inflation slowed to 3.6% in October, down from its 3.8% peak and in line with consensus expectations. Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) eased further to 3.4% (from 3.5% in September)
Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week
November 17, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week
Growth in Q3 was driven by an increase in investment (primarily investment in private homes, and by government). Consumer spending also rose, but at a weaker than average pace. These offset negative contributions from lower inventories compared with Q2.
November 13, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Growth in Q3 was driven by an increase in investment (primarily investment in private homes, and by government). Consumer spending also rose, but at a weaker than average pace. These offset negative contributions from lower inventories compared with Q2.
UK GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 2025, underperforming consensus estimates of 0.2%. These figures mark a slowdown from the first half of 2025 (0.7% in Q1, and 0.3% in Q2).
November 13, 2025 at 11:58 AM
UK GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 2025, underperforming consensus estimates of 0.2%. These figures mark a slowdown from the first half of 2025 (0.7% in Q1, and 0.3% in Q2).
Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week
November 10, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week
The Bank expects CPI inflation to have peaked (at 3.8% in September). Looking ahead, inflation is projected to slow over the forecast, gradually returning to 2% in mid-2027.
November 6, 2025 at 1:10 PM
The Bank expects CPI inflation to have peaked (at 3.8% in September). Looking ahead, inflation is projected to slow over the forecast, gradually returning to 2% in mid-2027.
The Bank of England’s latest forecast expects economic activity to remain subdued, with GDP growth projected to be 1.5% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, picking up to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028.
November 6, 2025 at 1:10 PM
The Bank of England’s latest forecast expects economic activity to remain subdued, with GDP growth projected to be 1.5% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, picking up to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to leave Bank Rate at 4%. The majority bloc voted to keep rates on hold due to concerns over inflation persistence, driven by higher inflation expectations and structural shifts which may have led to greater inflation persistence .
November 6, 2025 at 1:10 PM
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to leave Bank Rate at 4%. The majority bloc voted to keep rates on hold due to concerns over inflation persistence, driven by higher inflation expectations and structural shifts which may have led to greater inflation persistence .
Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week
November 3, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week
📊Firms expect to see further declines into early 2026:
• Business & professional services: -12%
• Consumer services: -28%
• Distribution: -34%
• Manufacturing: -19%
[Figures shown are net balances – the percentage of firms expecting an increase minus those expecting a decrease]
• Business & professional services: -12%
• Consumer services: -28%
• Distribution: -34%
• Manufacturing: -19%
[Figures shown are net balances – the percentage of firms expecting an increase minus those expecting a decrease]
October 29, 2025 at 9:06 AM
📊Firms expect to see further declines into early 2026:
• Business & professional services: -12%
• Consumer services: -28%
• Distribution: -34%
• Manufacturing: -19%
[Figures shown are net balances – the percentage of firms expecting an increase minus those expecting a decrease]
• Business & professional services: -12%
• Consumer services: -28%
• Distribution: -34%
• Manufacturing: -19%
[Figures shown are net balances – the percentage of firms expecting an increase minus those expecting a decrease]